According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market will decline from April 11 to April 18, 2025. On April 11th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5840 yuan/ton, and on April 18th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.11%. Although crude oil prices have fluctuated upwards this week, poor downstream demand has dragged down the overall weak operation of the toluene market. Refinery quotations in Shandong region have been continuously lowered this week, and downstream purchases have been made on dips. The supply in the East China market is slightly loose, the overall performance of the aromatic hydrocarbon market is weak, the toluene market is dragged down by weak prices, the price reduction of Sinopec in the South China region is dragging down the mentality of the spot market, and the market is slightly under pressure due to high port inventory.
On the cost side, international oil prices have fluctuated upward this cycle. As of April 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $64.68 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $67.96 per barrel.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of April 18th, East China Company quoted 5550 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5500 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5600-5700 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5750 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On April 18th, the price of xylene at Sinopec Sales Company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 6800 yuan/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities operated stably, with normal sales, and remained the same as the price on April 11th. As of April 17th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $715-717/ton FOB Korea and $740-742/ton CFR China, a decrease of $6/ton from the 11th price.
Market forecast: The crude oil trend this week has little impact on the toluene market, and the main influencing factor is still on the supply and demand side. The overall loose performance of the supply side has led to a weak atmosphere in the spot market, and the bearish sentiment in the aromatics market is strong in the future. On the demand side, the downstream overall maintains on-demand procurement, but the demand is urgent. Overall, the toluene market is still under pressure, and it is expected that the market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.