According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 14th to 18th, MTBE prices fell from 5525 yuan/ton to 5422 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.86% during the period, a month on month drop of 5.70%, and a year-on-year drop of 27.82%. The MTBE market is showing a fluctuating downward trend, with poor performance in the gasoline terminal market and continuous imbalance between production and sales. The demand for MTBE continues to be low, and at the same time, Dongying Shenchi and Bengu new material facilities are both operating, further increasing resource supply and significantly increasing domestic supply pressure.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the continued positive factors of the US sanctions against Iran, coupled with some oil producing countries submitting compensation plans for overproduction. As of April 18th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $67.96 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of gasoline terminal demand, there has been no significant increase in terminal demand at this stage. The inventory digestion of social units is slow, and end users and traders are very cautious in their ordering operations. For several consecutive days, the production to sales ratio of refineries has not exceeded 100%. Refineries have no choice but to lower prices and promote sales, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: Overall expected resource supply or slight increase. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on April 17th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $9.92/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $666.04-668.04/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $6.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $787.99-788.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $35.73 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $704.35-704.71 per ton (198.88-198.98 cents per gallon).
As the May Day holiday approaches, people’s expectations for travel and leisure activities are increasing, and gasoline market transactions are gradually improving, which is expected to provide some support for the MTBE market. But currently, the supply of MTBE resources is still relatively high. Let’s take a look at the supply and demand. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations.