According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose this week (3.24-3.28), with an average market price of 276960 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 279770 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.01%.
Fundamentally, on Friday, Myanmar was suddenly hit by an earthquake. Although the direct impact on local supply was relatively limited, it cast a shadow over the prospects of resuming production in the Wa State. At the same time, mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo have been shut down and urgently need minerals from Myanmar to fill the gap. However, the impact of this earthquake is difficult to accurately quantify. Once the mine is damaged and collapses, the resumption of production this year may be in vain, and the supply gap is expected to further widen. The import volume of tin ore in China is expected to experience a significant decline, and the tight supply of domestic tin ore is difficult to effectively alleviate. The production of refined tin may show a downward trend, and the weekly operating rate data of Yunnan refined tin has also confirmed this concern.
On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream tin and solder enterprises in December showed a month on month upward trend, reaching 76%; The operating rate of lead-acid batteries in February decreased to 58.6% month on month. In addition, PVC production achieved a year-on-year increase of 1.8% in January and February; The production of flat glass in December decreased by 1.2% year-on-year.
This week’s domestic inventory is 9225 tons, an increase of 650 tons; Spot premium of 150 yuan; LME inventory is 3050 tons, with a slight accumulation of global inventory.
comprehensive analysis
In the short term, the trend of tin prices is relatively strong. Pay attention to the news of Myanmar tin mine resuming production.