Price trend: narrow fluctuations, mixed ups and downs
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on March 27th, the average price of dichloromethane (DCM) in Shandong Province was 2385 yuan/ton, a monthly decline of 5.73%, falling to the lowest point of the month, and showing an overall range oscillation pattern:
-On March 10th, it fell to the low point of 2400 yuan/ton in the first round of the month (-5.14% compared to the beginning of the month);
-On March 19th, it rebounded to a monthly high of 2575 yuan/ton (+1.78% compared to the beginning of the month).
Analysis of influencing factors
1. Supply side: Stable operating rate, periodic manifestation of inventory pressure
-The average operating rate of the methane chloride unit remains at 80%, with sufficient supply.
-The competition among enterprises has intensified, and the two rounds of bidding sales at the end of the month have suppressed prices. Currently, there is a wide downward adjustment, and market trading has increased. The short-term deep decline space is limited.

2. Cost side: Both raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine are rising
-Methanol: Affected by fluctuations in local facilities, spot prices have slightly risen to 2679.17 yuan/ton (+1.9% from the beginning of the month).
-Liquid chlorine: The maintenance plan for the alkali plant in April has increased, and the expected tight supply will support prices. However, downstream procurement is cautious, and the supply-demand game continues.
3. Demand side: Mainly focused on rigid procurement, with refrigerant demand providing support
-The overall demand in downstream industries is weak, and many companies are buying stocks at low prices, resulting in weak high price transactions.
-The refrigerant R32 market is strengthening, coupled with price adjustments by leading companies and the launch of long-term agreement negotiations in the second quarter, the industry’s prosperity is recovering, indirectly benefiting DCM prices.
4. Import and export: export surge, import low
-Export: Accumulated export of 31700 tons from January to February 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 34% (single month year-on-year increase of 74.9% in February), with strong external demand easing domestic supply pressure.
-Imports: The cumulative imports from January to February were only 24 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 64.3%, with a weak impact on the domestic market.
Future prospects
The current market is intertwined with long and short factors:
-Advantages: Support from raw material costs, rebound in refrigerant demand, and growth in exports;
-Negative: Loose supply, downstream high price resistance, inventory digestion still takes time.
Overall, the short-term price of dichloromethane may continue to fluctuate within a certain range. If exports continue to increase or costs continue to rise, the price center is expected to slightly shift upward.