1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on September 11th was 963 yuan/ton, which is 6.17% lower than the average price of 1026 yuan/ton on September 5th.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices have weakened and fallen, while the operating rate of enterprises has remained stable. At present, the supply of ammonium sulfate market is sufficient, but the demand side continues to be weak, and new orders in the market are limited. Downstream procurement with multiple price pressures has led to a continuous decline in market transaction prices. The export market has not improved yet, and the market is mainly bearish.
market situation
As of September 11th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 930 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 920-970 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent market trend of ammonium sulfate is mainly weak and downward. At present, the supply of ammonium sulfate in the market exceeds demand, and the bidding prices on site have weakened, making it difficult to improve the short-term downturn. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will continue to be weak in the short term, with a mainly downward trend.

Price trend:
In early September, the dichloromethane market in Shandong continued its downward trend and did not experience the expected peak season of “Golden September”. The core reason is that the market supply is loose while demand is weak. The operating rate of the supply side remains high, while the expected “golden September and silver October” on the demand side has not been realized. Trading in the market is poor, and enterprises are leading the way in shipping, reducing inventory through discounts and promotions, bidding for sales, and prices continue to bottom out. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 9th, the average price of dichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 1940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.76% from the beginning of the month and a year-on-year drop of 28.94%.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: High production levels, inventory pressure
Affected by weak demand, the overall operating rate of methane chloride plants in the industry has slightly fallen to around 85%, still at a high level, with loose supply on site. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is insufficient, and enterprises are under pressure to ship. In order to alleviate inventory pressure and reduce prices for sales, the market may mainly observe consolidation.
The changes on the supply side are crucial: if more companies in the future reduce production load or shut down due to cost pressures, malfunctions, or unplanned maintenance, it may effectively alleviate the supply pressure on the market and provide support for prices.
Cost side: Methanol increases, cost support strengthens
In terms of raw material methanol, the demand for olefins in mainland China remains strong. Against the backdrop of expectations from Jinjiu, downstream buyers have a positive attitude towards price increases, and the short-term market trend tends to be strong and volatile. As of September 9th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2271.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.72% from the beginning of the month. If the price of methanol continues to rise, it may compress the production profit of dichloromethane, and the willingness of enterprises to raise prices may increase. In terms of liquid chlorine, there is insufficient demand follow-up in Shandong region, and companies offered discounts and lowered prices in the middle of the week. Currently, prices remain unchanged from the beginning of the month.
Demand side: Purchase on demand, waiting for the traditional “golden September and silver October” peak season to boost
The overall performance of downstream industries is poor, with high temperatures and large-scale domestic events affecting the operating rates of some downstream enterprises. Many downstream enterprises maintain a strategy of purchasing on demand, lacking the willingness to stock up on large quantities.
Refrigerant R32 is widely used in fields such as air conditioning, and downstream demand continues to be strong. However, production quota restrictions have led to a tight supply of goods in the market, and companies have a strong reluctance to sell at high prices. It is expected that the average price will rise to 62000-64000 yuan/ton from September to November. Due to limited production quotas and limited demand for raw materials, the continuous upward trend of the market has not driven the rise of raw material dichloromethane.
Traditionally, September and October are the peak seasons for industrial production. We need to closely monitor the recovery of downstream actual demand. If downstream demand can rebound beyond expectations, it may drive a wave of replenishment demand.
Future prospects
The dichloromethane market had a sluggish start in September, with weak demand being the core issue. Whether prices can rebound depends on whether there can be a significant contraction on the supply side, such as large-scale equipment maintenance, and whether the traditional “golden September and silver October” peak season can truly boost downstream demand.
In the short term, the possibility of a significant rebound in the market is relatively small, and it is expected to continue to operate mainly in a volatile bottoming out or low position.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, 85% of industrial grade formic acid in China has shown a fluctuating trend recently. As of September 8th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China was 3220 yuan/ton, down 3.98% from 3353 yuan/ton at the beginning of September, a month on month decrease of 9.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 25%.
The demand in the terminal consumer market is average, adopting a wait-and-see attitude
There is a certain deviation between the current formic acid price and market expectations, coupled with weak demand. Downstream customers of formic acid generally adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, only maintaining rigid procurement demand, with significantly insufficient consumption power and low shipment volume.
The supply side may experience some contraction
Export orders are showing a contraction trend, while the production pace on the supply side remains stable. The temporary imbalance in the supply and demand pattern has led to a downward trend in prices. According to market news, there is a maintenance plan for the Liaocheng factory in the future, which is expected to have a phased impact on the supply pattern.
The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current formic acid market is in a volatile downward phase, and the subsequent price may be affected by major manufacturers’ maintenance plans. Specific market news still needs to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic palm oil market fluctuated and rose in August, with an increase of over 6%. On August 1st, the average market price of palm oil was 8992 yuan/ton, and on August 27th, the average market price of palm oil was 9550 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.21%.
Positive support for palm oil market to fluctuate and rise in August
In early August, the palm oil market experienced an upward trend. Malaysian palm oil is mainly beneficial. Among them, Malaysia’s palm oil exports increased by 23.3% month on month from August 1st to 10th, 2025. Starting from August 10th, the export of palm oil in the external market has been strong, and the market has risen strongly for three consecutive days. The domestic palm oil futures market is heating up. On August 13th, palm oil closed at 9490 yuan/ton, up 156 yuan/ton, and the futures price continues to rise. The spot market is rising.
In the middle of the month, negative factors remained, and the palm oil market experienced a pullback after its upward trend, with an overall decline of around 100 yuan/ton. As of August 20th, the average price of palm oil in the market exceeded 9500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of nearly 500 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month.
At the end of the month, terminal demand improved, but the boost from external markets was limited. There was a long short game, and the palm oil market continued to fluctuate with ups and downs. The overall market fluctuated at a high level, lasting between 9500-9600 yuan/ton.
The palm oil analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in September, the demand for terminal oils and fats will increase, and the bearish trend in the external market will dominate. The palm oil market will continue to fluctuate and operate strongly in the future.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has risen this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 890 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.1% compared to last year. On September 4th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 770 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 45.00% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 28.76% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda increased over the weekend this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 840-910 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 870-950 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 2700-2800 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). From the perspective of Shandong region, the price of caustic soda remained stable for the week. The pre maintenance equipment has not been restored yet, and the inventory pressure of the enterprise is not high. Alumina is mostly purchased on demand, while non aluminum receiving is mainly purchased on demand.
Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has remained stable with small fluctuations, and the price of caustic soda has been operating steadily. Recently, domestic downstream buyers have been purchasing on demand, and the inventory pressure of caustic soda enterprises is not high. Downstream inventory enterprises are expected to undergo maintenance, and the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will continue to operate steadily in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Since August, asphalt prices have been fluctuating downwards due to various factors. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong region was 3730 yuan/ton on August 1st, and as of August 30th, the ex factory price in Shandong region was 3660 yuan/ton.
Cost negative impact. International crude oil prices continued to decline in August. As of August 29th, the prices of major crude oil futures in the international market have fallen by 6.73% and 9.57% respectively compared to the end of July. This poses a cost drag on asphalt.
In August, downstream demand for asphalt performed poorly, social inventory was slowly depleted, and market expectations for the demand side were pessimistic. In September, although the construction of projects in some provinces has driven the concentrated release of demand for modified asphalt, and the demand for asphalt in both the northern and southern markets is expected to increase, the overall speed of demand improvement may be relatively slow. The supply side is relatively abundant, although the production schedule in August has declined compared to the previous month, the production enthusiasm of refineries on the supply side is still high. There is still a possibility of an increase in asphalt production schedule in September, and there is still ample supply in the production process.
From the perspective of Business Society, in the later stage, from a fundamental perspective, downstream demand for asphalt has performed poorly, social inventory depletion is still slow, and market expectations for the demand side are pessimistic; The production enthusiasm of refineries on the supply side is still high, and there is still a possibility of an increase in asphalt production in September. The production process is still well supplied. On the cost side, the international situation is uncertain and lacks clear guidance. Overall analysis shows that the asphalt spot market lacks sufficient favorable conditions, and currently, the profit margin of asphalt production is relatively good. This means that there may still be room for a downward adjustment in asphalt spot prices, and the short-term trend of spot prices is not optimistic.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market will fluctuate and rise in August 2025. From August 1st to 29th, the domestic butadiene market price rose from 9050 yuan/ton to 9283.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.58% during the period.
Early October: The trend of the butadiene market in this cycle is relatively volatile, with a slight increase. On the supply side, some domestic devices have restarted, but there are also some devices undergoing maintenance. Overall, the supply has slightly declined, and the devices in Shandong have not yet been exported, resulting in overall tight supply. The decline in prices at the beginning of the week on the demand side has attracted some downstream buyers to replenish inventory at low prices, but these are all temporary demands, and overall demand still leans towards rigid demand. Overall, the support on the demand side is limited.
Late period: The market trend of this cycle is relatively volatile. In mid period, it began to be boosted by the rise of downstream markets, and the atmosphere of the spot market began to improve. Domestic main refineries raised their ex factory prices one after another, driving a slight rebound in spot market prices. In the later stage, due to the downstream still being in a state of urgent procurement, the support for the market was limited, and spot prices generally rebounded. As of the end of the month, the butadiene market fluctuated and strengthened due to the strengthening of synthetic rubber and favorable supply and demand conditions. As of August 28th, the delivery price to the Shandong Luzhong area is between 9550-9630 yuan/ton.
Cost wise: As of the 26th, the settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.25 per barrel, and the settlement price of the October Brent crude oil futures contract was $67.22 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, crude oil prices were mainly volatile. On the one hand, OPEC+announced a cumulative increase in production of 2.3 million barrels per day by September, marking the organization’s exit from its plan to reduce production by over 2.2 million barrels per day one year ahead of schedule. This news is bearish for the oil market. On the other hand, the tense situation in Europe and the upcoming peace talks have led to a weakening of geopolitical supply risks, negative global macro data, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in September, making it difficult for the crude oil market to have positive support.
Supply side: As of the 29th, the listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last month. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.
On the demand side, the market for butadiene rubber in August saw a slight increase. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 12200 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.01% from 11960 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material butadiene fluctuates and rises, causing the cost center of butadiene rubber to shift upwards; The production of butadiene rubber has fluctuated slightly, and there is not much pressure on the supply side; Downstream tire production has slightly increased, mainly supporting the demand for butadiene rubber. As of August 28th, the mainstream reports for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China are 11900~12400 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: The supply side performance is expected to be decent in the near future, with a slight easing overall and limited impact. The demand side synthetic rubber market has been strengthening overall recently, with good downstream support. Under the influence of demand support, it is expected that the butadiene market will have a stable to strong trend in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 29th, the price of lead 1 # was 16780 yuan/ton, slightly lower than the lead price of 16805 yuan/ton on August 25th, a decrease of 0.15%.
This week’s market analysis
At the beginning of the week, market prices lightly touched the high area, which was mainly boosted by two positive factors: on the one hand, the market’s expectation of a reduction in future supply continued to increase, and on the other hand, many bullish signals were released at the macro level, jointly driving prices upward. Entering the middle of the week, market prices turned into a narrow range operation trend, during which prices once fell to a low level. This was mainly due to concerns about the uncertainty of the supply side in the market, while the demand side also showed a cautious wait-and-see attitude, making prices lack further upward momentum.
This week, the performance of the Shanghai lead market showed a phased change. In the first half of the week, driven by a positive macro environment and reduced supply expectations, prices experienced a rebound trend. During the mid week period, lead prices briefly rose, but later due to stable downstream consumer demand and no significant increase in purchasing and stocking willingness of downstream enterprises, the upward momentum of lead prices weakened, and some of the previous gains subsequently fell back.
supply side
Due to the periodic maintenance of equipment and environmental restrictions imposed by some enterprises, the expectation of maintenance and shutdown in primary lead smelters has significantly increased; At the same time, recycled lead enterprises are constrained by the tight supply of raw materials and waste batteries, as well as the compression of profit margins, resulting in a continuous decline in overall operating levels. The market’s spot supply is expected to further decrease, and the supply-demand situation may continue to be tight.
demand side
The consumption rate of lead ingot inventory by downstream battery companies is relatively slow, so overall, the procurement of lead ingots is expected to maintain a rigid demand procurement mode. Some companies mainly receive goods through long orders, and there is still a certain tendency to lower prices when purchasing lead ingots.
comprehensive analysis
In the current market environment, the fundamentals of the lead industry have not fully improved, mainly due to the slow recovery process of the consumer side. However, given the short-term market sentiment fluctuations and changes in capital flows, there may be some room for a rebound in lead prices.