After the holiday, the price of isooctanol rose sharply and then fell back

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 12th, the price of isooctanol was 9233.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.05% compared to the price of 8706.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. Economic expectations are expected to rebound, and demand for isooctanol is expected to rebound. In addition, after the holiday, isooctanol stocks will be replenished, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol prices. As the replenishment ends and the economic recovery falls short of expectations, demand is expected to decline, and the high price of isooctanol is expected to drop.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices rise sharply before falling back

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 12th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9238.75 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased compared to the DOP price of 8988.75 yuan/ton on October 1st, with a growth rate of 2.78%. The post holiday economic recovery, coupled with the replenishment of plasticizers after the holiday, has led to an increase in demand for DOP and a rise in DOP prices. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises has increased, and the demand for isooctanol by plasticizers has increased; With the end of inventory replenishment and a decline in demand, coupled with a slower than expected economic recovery, the price of plasticizer DOP has fallen from a high level. The demand for octanol rose and then fell, and the price of octanol rose and then fell.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol products, after the National Day holiday, favorable policies continue to be implemented, and economic expectations are expected to rebound. Influenced by macroeconomic policy sentiment, downstream customers have shown good enthusiasm for receiving goods. In addition, downstream customers have restocked, resulting in a temporary increase in transactions and a rise in octanol prices; As the price of octanol rises to a high level, downstream customers’ resistance to high prices increases, and market purchasing enthusiasm decreases, causing the price of octanol to fall back from its high level. In the future, it remains to be verified whether the policy can bring substantial improvement in the short term due to the impact of policies. The sentiment in the octanol market is relatively warm in the short term, but in the medium and long term, the market mainly affects prices through supply and demand. The supply and demand in the octanol market are relatively balanced, and the expected price of octanol is expected to consolidate.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, caustic soda prices rose in September. At the beginning of the month, the average market price in Shandong was 829 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price in Shandong was around 833 yuan/ton. The overall price increased by 0.48%, and the price increased by 18.41% compared to the same period last year. On September 29th, the chemical index was 837 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 40.21% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 39.97% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has increased this month. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 900-950 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 810-900 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali.

At the beginning of September, the market showed an upward trend, with some areas experiencing some improvement in transaction conditions. The maintenance of some facilities in Shandong had a significant boost to market prices, and there was not much pressure on enterprise inventory. In early September, downstream alumina prices continued to show a stable to strong trend. Some aluminum plants that have a demand for replenishment have concentrated their purchases in the market, driving the price of caustic soda to continue to rise. Alumina continues to be in a tight pattern, and there may still be a demand for replenishing caustic soda.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 39th week of 2024 (9.23-9.27), there were a total of 2 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 2 products with zero price fluctuations in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have risen are: calcium carbide (2.53%), PVC (1.25%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are: light soda ash (-2.77%) and baking soda (-1.48%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.08%.

Business analysts believe that the price of caustic soda has been consolidating recently. At present, the inventory of caustic soda plants is low, and there are more maintenance enterprises in the main production areas after the holiday. It cannot be ruled out that there may be a price increase in the market. Overall, it is expected that there will be an upward trend in the later period of the National Day holiday, depending on downstream market demand.

In August, domestic liquid ammonia gradually bottomed out and stabilized, and ammonia prices continued to fluctuate upwards in September. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province increased by 9.81% in September. The main reason is that in the context of stable downstream demand, there are more equipment maintenance in the northern region, leading to a decrease in operating rates and easing of supply pressure. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2750-2900 yuan/ton.

The tight performance of intensive maintenance and supply of equipment

In terms of supply, the main issue is the shortage of supply. In September, ammonia plants generally reduced their supply, and the production of equipment in the main northern production areas decreased. Since September, the increase in maintenance equipment and temporary shutdown of ammonia companies have affected some production. Mainly manifested in Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, and the Two Lakes region. Especially in the first week, the increase was significant, and manufacturers concentrated on raising the ex factory price by more than 300 yuan/ton. Subsequently, with the recovery of supply, ammonia prices experienced a slight correction, and the market returned to an upward trend in the second half of the month. The price increase continued until the end of the month, and the current market performance shows a basic balance between supply and demand.

The overall improvement of the industrial chain is not significant, and the downstream demand of the “Golden Nine” is insufficient

From the diagram of the liquid ammonia industry chain, it can be seen that the upstream and downstream environment of liquid ammonia has not improved significantly, and the upstream natural gas has not continued its upward trend in August. As of the end of September, the decline has been 6.41%. Especially in the downstream sector, the trend is still generally cold, with more declines and less gains. This is mainly reflected in the slow start of downstream demand, the sluggish peak season of “Golden September”, and the downward trend of terminal production in major industrial demand areas. The market relies heavily on the demand for agricultural compound fertilizers, but the current increase in compound fertilizer production has not met market expectations. The market is mainly driven by rigid demand, and the demand side is restricting the increase in ammonia prices. This round of rise is mainly driven by the supply side.

Especially downstream urea has shown poor performance, according to Shengyi Society, urea fell by 0.74% in September. On the one hand, the supply performance is sufficient, but domestic urea manufacturers have insufficient ammonia conversion and high inventory. Combined with weak exports. On the other hand, there was no significant increase in downstream procurement volume, and the market performance remained calm.

Market forecast:

Business analysts believe that from a supply side perspective, there is not much pressure on the market supply, equipment production is normal, and inventory continues to deplete. The enterprise has a certain price mentality, but it is not greatly affected by the improvement of downstream demand. Urea lacks upward momentum, and the power to convert equipment to urea is insufficient. The output of liquid ammonia still shows rigidity. Overall, it is difficult for a large-scale market oversupply to occur in the short term.

From the demand side, the peak season for autumn fertilizer preparation is not prosperous, but the market is still relatively cold. Agricultural demand remains stable, but the increase is slow. From the perspective of industrial demand, the continuous decline in downstream acrylonitrile production rate may pose a constraint on liquid ammonia. The peak season of “Silver October” is also difficult to predict.

Taking all factors into consideration, the price of liquid ammonia will tend to adjust narrowly in the near future with a basic balance between supply and demand, and there is little possibility of a significant rise or fall, with range fluctuations being the main trend.