According to the data from the Commodity List of Business News Agency, the recent market situation of formaldehyde in Shandong has been volatile and consolidated. This week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1273.33 yuan/ton, up 3.24% month on month, and the current price has dropped 9.21% year on year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong has been stable. From the above figure, it can be seen that the recent market of formaldehyde has mainly fluctuated slightly, and this week’s market has not fluctuated much. As of March 16, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1220-1350 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol has stabilized, with moderate cost support, weak market trading sentiment, weak demand from downstream plate factories, and stable shipments from formaldehyde manufacturers. The market has been volatile and consolidated.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is in a weak state, with costs facing normal production and sales in coal production areas. Downstream power plants are mainly focused on fulfilling long-term agreements, while non electric enterprises have increased procurement, and market sentiment has eased. However, as the temperature gradually warms up, daily consumption of power plants is slowly declining. In the short term, the price of steam coal may be mainly in a narrow range. The methanol cost side is temporarily negative. The overall recovery amount exceeded the loss amount, and the capacity utilization rate increased. The methanol supply side is temporarily negative. “Supply is relatively abundant, and demand changes are limited. Methanol analysts from the Business Agency predict that the domestic methanol market will be dominated by weak consolidation.”.

Recently, demand from downstream plate factories has been weak, and formaldehyde manufacturers have had a poor shipment situation. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fall due to shocks.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the price of pure benzene rose slightly this week. On March 6, the price of pure benzene was 7200-7420 yuan/ton (the average price was 7310 yuan/ton). On Thursday (March 9), the price of pure benzene was 7200-7400 yuan/ton (the average price was 7300 yuan/ton), up 1.03% from last week and down 13.28% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

The fundamentals of pure benzene continue to be weak, and the downstream is more wait-and-see, and the purchase intention is general; Crude oil continued to fall in the week, and the cost of pure benzene market formed a negative pressure; Downstream styrene slightly strengthened, boosting the pure benzene market.

The price of Sinopec pure benzene rose to 7200 yuan/ton this week (the price in Shandong and Hebei increased by 100 yuan/ton).

In terms of crude oil, this week’s crude oil market was shrouded in a negative atmosphere. The market was worried that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates aggressively, which would add to the sharp increase in the United States refined oil storage. Concerns about the future economic and demand prospects remained.

Downstream

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Pure benzene market: the increase in the main listing boosted market confidence, and the price stopped falling and rebounded, but the downstream resisted high-priced raw materials, and the trading volume was low; Shandong Refinery also resisted high-price pure benzene, and the number of transactions in the day decreased compared with yesterday. Overnight crude oil and styrene prices fell, but the main unit price of pure benzene supported the market. It is expected that the pure benzene in East China will rebound slightly today.

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States has increased significantly, the market’s concern about the economic recession has increased, and the international oil price has fallen three times. NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract fell by US $75.72/barrel, or 1.23%, by US $0.94/barrel; ICE oil distribution futures 05 contract fell $81.59/barrel, or 1.29%, by $1.07/barrel. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures 2304 fell 12.8 yuan to 560.4 yuan/barrel and 3.6 yuan to 556.8 yuan/barrel in the evening.

Core logic: Yesterday, the price of the East China market opened at a low price and rebounded slightly. The transaction was light. The buying and wait-and-see were obvious, and the market was bargain-hunting. The offer in Shandong is firm. Downstream and traders were cautious about high-price pure benzene, the pace of purchase slowed down and the transaction weakened. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market price trends, pure benzene port inventory dynamics and pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the price of mixed xylene tends to be stable this week, rising slightly in the early stage, and stabilizing at 7560 yuan/ton in the middle and late stage. The price was 7480 yuan/ton on March 6 and 7560 yuan/ton on March 12, up 1.07% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of crude oil, the overall trend of crude oil this week was fluctuating downward. The US crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased, and the market worried about raising interest rates increased, which brought pressure on oil demand, and the international oil price fell; In order to control inflation, the United States has frequently taken a series of measures recently, including releasing strategic reserves, reiterating the oil price manipulation bill against OPEC, and encouraging traders to transport Russia’s limited price crude oil. In terms of demand, China’s economy is in the stage of rapid rebound, which is good for the oil market.

Against the background of market worries about the global economic recession, there are still many uncertain factors in crude oil supply. The international crude oil supply as a whole has maintained a stable and tight state, among which, China’s crude oil consumption has always maintained a positive growth trend.

On March 12, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil was 75.72 USD/barrel, up 0.05% from the beginning of this month (75.68 USD/barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil was US $81.59/barrel, down 0.55% from the beginning of the month (US $82.04/barrel)..

In terms of external market, the price of mixed xylene in Asia rose slightly this week. On March 6, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 7574 yuan/ton, and on March 8, the price was 7624 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.66% year on year.

In terms of downstream px, the px market was stable this week. The price of PX was 8500 yuan/ton on March 6 and 8500 yuan/ton on March 12, the same as last week.

In terms of OX, the OX price in East China remained unchanged this week, and the demand support for OX cost stabilization remained. It is expected that the OX price will stabilize in the future. The OX price will be 8300 yuan/ton on March 6 and 8300 yuan/ton on March 12, which is the same as last week.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline fell slightly this week, from 8530.6 yuan/ton on March 6 to 8528.2 yuan/ton on March 12, down 2.4 yuan/ton or 0.03% from last week.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In general, the supply and demand level of the current crude oil market has provided support for the oil price, and has provided the energy for the oil price to move up the center of gravity. Next week, the international oil price will still be boosted by the expectation of China’s demand, and the overall trend may be volatile and upward. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase is expected to restrain the rise of the oil price to a certain extent. The supply and demand situation of mixed xylene is improving. With the further improvement of the downstream PX construction, the domestic consumption of mixed xylene is expected to continue to increase, and the end consumption of mixed xylene is expected to be optimistic, and the advantages remain unchanged. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory, external market, etc. on the price of mixed xylene.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of the Business News Agency, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong Province has been fluctuating and falling recently. The average price of styrene in Shandong at the beginning of the week was 8566.67 yuan/ton, and the average price of styrene in Shandong at the end of the week was 8425.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.65%. The price fell 15.75% from the same period last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene has continued to decline recently. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene has mainly fluctuated slightly, and the price has declined this week. The international crude oil price is volatile, the pure benzene market fluctuates little, and the cost support is poor. The styrene maintenance devices are restarted in succession. The superimposed port inventory is high, and the supply of goods is sufficient. The styrene manufacturers are actively shipping, and the market is lower.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene rose slightly this week. On March 6, the price of pure benzene was 7200-7420 yuan/ton (average price: 7310 yuan/ton). On Thursday (March 9), the price of pure benzene was 7200-7400 yuan/ton (average price: 7300 yuan/ton), up 1.03% from last week, down 13.28% from the same period last year. The fundamentals of pure benzene continue to be weak, and the downstream is more wait-and-see, and the purchase intention is general; Crude oil continued to fall in the week, and the cost of pure benzene market formed a negative pressure; Downstream styrene slightly strengthened, boosting the pure benzene market.

Downstream, the three major downstream of styrene rose and fell in different ways. The average price of PS common material at the beginning of the week is 9433.33 yuan/ton, and the average price of PS common material at the end of the week is 9333 yuan. 33 yuan/ton, down 1.04%. The wait-and-see atmosphere in the market is strong, and the buying is just in demand.

At the beginning of the week, the average price of EPS ordinary material was 9587 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of EPS ordinary material was 9625 yuan/ton, up 0.39%, down 13.29% year-on-year. The supply of goods on the site is still relatively loose, and the downstream production consumption inventory is mainly. The market price of EPS common materials in South China is about 9500-9600 yuan/ton (tax included).

The domestic ABS market has been stable recently. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average price was 11833.33 yuan/ton on March 13. In the near future, downstream factories, including the main terminal household appliance industry, are generally motivated to stock goods, and some manufacturers still have pre-holiday raw material inventory to digest. The overall demand improvement is limited, the overall trend is weak, and the flow of goods in the field is poor.

The recent international oil price rebound has supported styrene well, but the downstream production and sales profits have increased and decreased, the styrene inventory digestion is poor, and the high inventory is still continuing. It is expected that the short-term volatility of the styrene market will fall mainly.

Price trend

In the first ten days of March, the domestic POM market was stagnant after rising, and the overall price change was narrow. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of March 10, the average ex-factory price of domestic POM was 14433.33 yuan/ton, and the price level was+0.70% higher than the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials, the formaldehyde market in Shandong Province fell sharply in the first ten days of March. From the figure below, we can see that this week’s market mainly fluctuated slightly. The price of raw material methanol was consolidated, the market trading sentiment was general, the formaldehyde manufacturers had a high willingness to store and control the shipment, and the market was volatile and low.

On the supply side: In the first ten days of March, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises fell sharply from a high level, and the industry load dropped by about 1%, which is about 94% at present. The inventory situation of the enterprise is stable, the inventory position is not high, and the processing profit is steadily rising.

Demand: In terms of demand, the enthusiasm of terminal enterprises to prepare goods has weakened, the demand release is general, and the impact on the spot price is limited. At present, the market has changed the inflationary atmosphere due to the tight supply in the early stage, and the traders’ mentality has turned to be weak, and there is an underhanded operation.

Aftermarket forecast

In the first ten days of March, the POM market stood still after rising. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants is high, and the inventory pressure is moderate. At the same time, low-cost imported materials are beginning to flood the market, causing a certain impact on domestic spot goods. The demand-side enterprises just need to replenish less, and some downstream operating rates are low, and the actual transaction is weak. It is expected that the market will turn down in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the domestic market of PTA in February showed a trend of falling first and then rising. As of February 28, the average market price in East China was 5597 yuan/ton, down 2.89% from the beginning of the month, down 1.05% year on year. At the beginning of the month, due to insufficient follow-up of terminal orders, the new PTA devices were put into production, and the price fell slightly. After that, PTA increased its maintenance due to low processing difference, and the downstream polyester was seasonally negative, the supply and demand pattern improved, and the price stopped falling and rebounded.

In terms of PTA supply, there are many factory maintenance devices restarted and the supply side increased. At present, a 2.5 million ton PTA plant in Shandong is planned to restart on February 28; A 1.2 million ton PTA plant in the northwest is planned to restart on February 28; A set of 2.25 million tons PTA plant in Northeast China was restarted at the end of February. At present, the industry is currently operating at more than 72% in the process of load lifting.

In February, the international crude oil price fluctuated and adjusted. As of the 27th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $75.68/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $82.04/barrel. At present, Russia claims that the production reduction decision is only for March, and the later production decision will depend on the situation. It is expected that Russia’s crude oil production will recover. In terms of demand, it is still the game between domestic demand repair and overseas economic recession, and the weakness of overseas economy suppresses the demand increment.

It is understood that most of the current terminal factories still focus on digesting the stock orders before the Spring Festival, and the domestic sales orders have only slightly increased. Foreign trade is subject to the impact of high inventory, and the issuance of new orders is still not smooth. The orders of textile enterprises have not shown the explosive growth expected by the market, and the issuance of new orders is limited, which restricts the enthusiasm of some manufacturers in production. The overall situation is still weak compared with the same period last year. As of February 27, the comprehensive operating rate of weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was more than 67%.

Analysts from the Business Agency believe that the production reduction and restart of PTA plant will be in parallel, and the expected production of new devices will be superimposed, and the supply pressure will be difficult to reduce. At the same time, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, especially the scarcity of domestic and foreign trade orders will restrict the enthusiasm of the market to catch up and suppress the PTA market. PTA prices are expected to rise weakly in March, and it is still necessary to pay attention to crude oil and demand fulfillment.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 12200 yuan/ton on February 27 and 12300 yuan/ton on March 6. The domestic caprolactam price rose 0.82% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam rose this week. The caprolactam market is generally operating well due to the increase in the price of raw material pure benzene and the strengthening of cost support. The load of caprolactam plant increased and the market supply increased. Downstream just need to purchase, and the transaction atmosphere is acceptable.

The price of raw material pure benzene rose this week. The price of Sinopec pure benzene rose to 7100 yuan/ton this week. The domestic price of pure benzene is 6900-7420 yuan/ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The caprolactam analyst of the Business Agency believes that the caprolactam market has stabilized recently. The market of raw material pure benzene continued to strengthen, with favorable cost support. However, the market spot supply increased, and the terminal demand still needs to be improved. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will be mainly stabilized and operated in the short term.

Market price trend chart of polyformaldehyde

Recently, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has risen. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5362.50 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5387.50 yuan/ton, up 0.47%, down 0.23% month-on-month, down 3.76% year on year.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market fluctuated slightly, and the methanol market in southern Shandong was consolidated and operated, with the local ex-factory price of 2600-2650 yuan/ton, and the high-end price was quoted; The delivery price in Linyi is 2660-2670 yuan/ton. Downstream demand changes are limited, the fluctuation of international oil prices is relatively large, and the market is also in a negative mood, and the methanol market subsequently falls in a narrow range.

Recently, the methanol market is volatile and low, the cost support is poor, and the downstream demand is difficult to change significantly in a short time. The polyformaldehyde analyst of the business agency expects that the price may fall slightly.

Price trend

In February, the trend of domestic PA66 market was sideways after falling. According to the monitoring of the data of the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of domestic PA66 was 21000 yuan/ton on February 28, with a decline of – 2.33% from the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In February, the market of PA66 was poor, and the spot price was stagnant after falling. In terms of supply, the overall monthly load of domestic PA66 industry is more than 65%. Enterprise operations continue to be biased towards destocking, with general inventory pressure and abundant supply of goods on the site. In the upstream, the operating rate of adipic acid raw material increased within the month, and the expected increase in supply in the later period was negative for the market. The supply of hexamethylene diamine is also expected to increase, and the support of PA66 raw material end to the spot is weakened. In terms of demand, the situation is weak and difficult to change. The terminal enterprises just need to follow up with the maintenance of goods. Buyers generally have strong resistance to high-priced supply. It is expected that PA66 will continue its weak consolidation market in the short term.

Aftermarket forecast

The spot price of PA66 was weak in February. The market at the raw material end weakened, weakening the support for PA66 at the cost end. The load of PA66 enterprises is stable, and the overall inventory position is average. The demand side is weak in taking goods, and it is expected that PA66 will continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: at the end of February, the domestic maleic anhydride market rose first and then fell

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride as of February 28 was 7540.00 yuan/ton (tax included), down 0.79% from 7600.00 yuan/ton on February 1.

The commodity index of maleic anhydride on February 28 was 71.03, down 1.69 points from yesterday, down 57.32% from the highest point of 166.43 points in the cycle (2021-12-15), and up 38.78% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In February, the domestic phenylmaleic anhydride market continued to shut down. In late February, the upstream n-butane and liquid anhydride prices continued to decline, and the downstream resin replenishment was prudent, and the purchase was based on demand. As of the 28th, solid anhydride in Shandong was about 7200 yuan/ton, and that in Jiangsu was about 7200 yuan/ton. There was no new price outflow from Shanxi and Hebei, and that in South China was about 7500 yuan/ton.

The trend of international crude oil prices in February was volatile. On the macro level, the inflation level in the United States remained high, and the economic data was strong. The month-on-month rise in inflation data in January made the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes showed that the probability of further interest rate increase was increased, and the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend of inflation made the interest rate reduction at the end of the year almost impossible, which led to the pressure on the prices of risky assets such as crude oil. The western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected channel of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy, especially the news that the United States has released its crude oil reserves again is also negative for the oil market. However, the rising demand in Asia has played a certain role in supporting the international oil price, and Russia’s production reduction in March is expected to boost the oil price.

In February, the hydrogenation benzene market fell first and then rose, with a decline in the cycle. The ex-factory price in North China was 7166.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 6850 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 4.42%. The market trend fluctuates with the trend of pure benzene as a whole. In terms of supply, some units in the field have been overhauled recently, and the supply is slightly lower than that in the previous period. In terms of demand, the downstream styrene is weak, and the overall demand has not changed much. Some downstream units have been restarted in the later stage, and the market expects that the demand in the future market is fair.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The maleic anhydride product analyst of the Business Club believes that at present, the benzene oxidation process in the domestic maleic anhydride market has a serious deficit, the factory has been shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation of goods is small; In the near future, the price of n-butane in the upstream of maleic anhydride has continued to decline, and some resins in the downstream are in a strong wait-and-see mood. They are cautious in chasing up the price, and mainly purchase according to demand. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the near future.