1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 12, the average price of R22 mainstream manufacturers was 15600 yuan / ton, up 3.31% from the beginning of the week (8 days), up 5.17% from the beginning of June, down 14.13% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

R22 prices in the refrigerant market rose this week. The price of hydrofluoric acid at the raw material end has been raised, the cost end has certain support, the terminal air-conditioning, after-sales market demand has been gradually increased, adding that the supply of goods in the yard has been tightened, and the center of gravity of the offer of the goods holder has moved up. The manufacturer is subject to quota, the cost and demand are good and interwoven, and the price is firm. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of June 12, the average price of refrigerant R22 was around 15600 yuan / ton, and the market price was mostly around 15000 yuan / ton – 17000 yuan / ton, which was discussed in detail.

Upstream, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers this week is 8000-9000 yuan / ton, and the factory price of on-site merchants is temporarily stable. The domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have a general operating rate, and the on-site supply of goods is normal, driven by the rising price of fluorite. However, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is poor, and on-site procurement is the main thing. It is expected that the on-site price will continue to rise slightly in the later period. Affected by the poor downstream demand, the market price of trichloromethane in Shandong Province fell sharply. As of December 12, the market price of methane chloride in Shandong Province was temporarily stable. The mainstream price of dichloromethane market was 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of trichloromethane market was about 1850 yuan / ton. It is expected that it will be vulnerable in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business club, at present, the firm price of refrigerant R22 manufacturer is still the same, the supply is tight, and the cost side is good support. It is expected that the price trend of refrigerant R22 will be strong in the short term, which is easy to rise and hard to fall.

1、 Price trend

Price aspect: price aspect: the main quotation of GPPS is 8450-9100 yuan / ton, and the main quotation of hips is 8600-10100 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

PS market trading atmosphere is calm, business quotation is stable in part up. Many businesses are flexible, but the demand of downstream factories is low, and the actual transaction performance is average.

3、 Future forecast

PS market quotation is generally stable, and some PS petrochemical manufacturers raise the ex factory quotation, which is good for the spot market. However, the demand of downstream factories is not high, and the overall market transaction is not significantly improved. PS market is expected to follow up the trend of petrochemical, sorting out the main actor.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

On June 10, the market of industrial grade lithium hydroxide was temporarily stable. The average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises as of June 10 was 55666.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of yesterday, down 2.34% compared with that of May 10, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. At present, the downstream demand is flat, the market is weak, and new orders in the domestic market are light. Today, the focus of lithium hydroxide negotiation is temporarily stable.

Upstream: the market of lithium carbonate is weak and stable in the near future. At present, the supply of lithium carbonate is sufficient, the downstream demand is weak, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, market trading is not smooth, and the price is under pressure. The average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 39900 yuan / ton as of June 9, down 4.55% compared with that of May 9, and the average price of battery lithium carbonate in East China was 44300 yuan / ton, down 4.11% compared with that of May 9, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. Weak demand transmission, and the market of lithium carbonate is under pressure. However, under the influence of production cost, it is expected that the market of lithium carbonate will be weak and stable in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 9, 2020, there are 20 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase are sulfur (11.38%), isopropanol (5.18%) and phenol (4.70%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are acetic anhydride (- 7.57%), chloroform (- 4.88%) and formic acid (- 2.59%). The average price of this day is 0.29%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium hydroxide of business association, in the near future, the upstream lithium carbonate market is under pressure, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the cost and demand are double drag. It is expected that in the short term, the industrial lithium hydroxide Market will be dominated by weak operation.

According to a large amount of data monitoring from the business agency, the ethyl acetate Market in East China has been operating steadily after the adjustment of shocks. As of June 9, the average price of ethyl acetate in East China was 5400 yuan / ton, up 1.5% from the same period last month.

At present, the domestic ethyl acetate Market has started smoothly as a whole, and the industry’s operating rate has been maintained at about 50%. The enterprises are mainly engaged in consumption inventory contracts, and the downstream market just needs to purchase. In the short term, the trading is still flat, the demand side is difficult to effectively improve, and the support for ethyl acetate is insufficient, so the industry has many expectations.

In terms of raw materials, the acetic acid market tends to be stable in the near future, and the manufacturers gradually start to inquire after watching. With the equipment maintenance and the inventory consumption of manufacturers in East China, the market buying activity has increased. At present, the average price of acetic acid in East China is about 2166 yuan / ton; the ethanol manufacturers issue more orders, the inventory is not high, the price of raw materials corn remains high, and the production pressure of enterprises is large in the short term Under the favorable factors, the factory price remains stable, and under the positive attitude of small factory shipment, there is the possibility of weak consolidation.

On the international side, the supply and demand of international ethyl acetate are weak. Affected by the decline of raw material acetic acid, the price of ethyl acetate continues to decline, with European ports at about $900 / ton and North American ports at about $610 / ton.

According to the ethyl acetate analyst of the business association, the domestic ethyl acetate market started smoothly, with abundant spot supply. The downstream market just needs to be purchased. The trade in the industry is cautious, and the demand for ethyl acetate is limited. Due to the small inventory pressure of the enterprise at present, the space for price reduction is limited, and it is expected to run slightly and stably in a short time.

This week, the domestic methanol market rose in a narrow range. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, at the beginning of the week, the domestic methanol market price was 1605 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the domestic methanol market price was 1617 yuan / ton, up 0.78% in the week. Compared with the same period last month, the price fell 2.41% month on month and 27.53% year-on-year.

The domestic methanol price is at a historical low, the profits of coal and natural gas enterprises are not good, and the cost surface has certain support; the crude oil rose to a high in nearly three months, and the crude oil continued to rise under the expectation of the extension of the production reduction agreement, which is good for the methanol market. In the first ten days of June, the production of parking devices increased, the output of Baofeng 2.2 million tons and Anhui Linquan 300000 tons methanol new devices gradually increased in the later period, and the pressure of methanol supply was large; in the middle of June, the arrival plan of imported ships was relatively centralized, and the risk of high storage in the port was still accumulated; the traditional downstream industries such as methylaldehyde and dimethyl ether entered the off-season in the later period, and the demand was expected to decline.

Formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market is in a downturn. Methanol in the upper reaches of Anhui Province was affected by the low price of the port, and Anhui raw materials fell. Affected by this, the warehouse of formaldehyde products in the local area declined broadly; the price of methanol in the upper reaches of Shandong Province rose slightly within a week due to the rising freight, and the cost rose. With the arrival of local traditional wheat harvest season, some downstream board factories have wheat harvest holiday plans, and the terminal demand is weakened. Therefore, under the pressure of high cost, the delivery price of Shandong formaldehyde enterprises is reduced by a narrow margin. In addition, Feixian County, Shandong Province “delisting into the park” is carried out in an orderly manner, and it is expected that all formaldehyde plants will be completed before October 1, 2021.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market fell sharply this week. During the last weekend, Jiangsu Thorpe and Hebei Jiantao acetic acid plants were restored one after another, and traders were actively selling goods in the early stage, pushing the market transaction prices down one after another, and the market was passive and weak. At the beginning of the month, the downstream factories digested the contract volume and had no purchase intention for the spot acetic acid in the market, which led to the gradual increase of the stock quantity of the spot manufacturers and the passive continuous price reduction competition, driving the market transaction price down. In the early stage of South China market, the offer price was relatively firm, but the suppliers from Henan Province dropped a lot this week, and the low-cost sources successively competed for the South China market, resulting in the passive decline of local suppliers under the shipping pressure. And the local demand in South China is scattered and limited, and the local market continues to follow the decline passively under the competition of peripheral low price goods.

Dimethyl ether: this week, the domestic market for dimethyl ether was light, and the overall price was stable. There was no significant price adjustment in most of the weeks. At present, it is in the civil off-season, and the pressure of liquefied gas delivery is large. However, due to the continuous rise of crude oil price this week, the price of liquefied gas has formed a good support, and the civil price has increased significantly, but the terminal demand has slightly resisted, the transaction situation is general, and the market of dimethyl ether is limited.

In the later stage, 2.2 million tons of Baofeng and 300000 tons of new methanol plants in Linquan, Anhui will be started, and the production will continue to increase The pressure of alcohol supply will not be reduced; the domestic methanol import volume will remain at a high level in June, and the plan for the arrival of imported ships in the middle of the year is relatively concentrated, and there is still a risk of accumulation in the port’s high inventory; at present, most methanol Enterprises are in a loss state, with a strong attitude of holding prices, and there is limited space for further decline. The methanol analysts of the business association predict that the methanol market may maintain narrow range finishing in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

On June 5, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 3750 yuan / ton, up 67 yuan / ton or 1.81% from last week, according to the data of business agency.

On June 4, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3635 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton or 1.96% compared with last Friday.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of June 4, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 1312500 tons, an increase of 30200 tons, or 2.36%, compared with last Thursday, and 14900 tons, or 1.15%, compared with this Monday. Due to the continuous accumulation of inventory, the current inventory has been at the highest level in the same period of three years, causing greater pressure on the price rise.

In terms of shipment, this week, the main port of Zhangjiagang delivered about 6600 tons per day, and Taicang delivered about 6300 tons per day to the two warehouses. Recently, there is a downward trend in the delivery, which also has a negative impact on the price trend of glycol.

At present, the operating rate of glycol is about 52%, and that of polyester downstream is about 88%. Although both of them have increased, the operating rate of glycol is still at a low level, which will not cause pressure on the price in the short term.

In terms of devices, Xinjiang Tianye 200000 tons and China Science and technology refinery 500000 tons plan to start commissioning in late June. The impact of the new device on the supply side has a delayed effect, and it is expected to discharge materials normally next month.

In terms of import, according to data statistics, the cumulative import volume of glycol from January to May was 4.5396 million tons, 3% higher than that in 2019.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Due to the impact of overseas sources of goods, as well as the slow digestion of upstream and downstream, the inventory is high. It is expected that glycol will be difficult to get rid of the current situation of slow de stocking in the short term, market confidence will not be boosted, and prices will continue to maintain a volatile situation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of May 31, the average price of the market quotation of organosilicon DMC in the mainstream areas of the data monitoring was around 15533 yuan / ton, which increased by 200 yuan / ton or 1% compared with that on May 1; compared with that before the labor day (April 26), the average price increased by 900 yuan / ton or 6.15%. The maximum amplitude of DMC was 6.15% from April 26 to May 31.

2、 Market analysis

Affected by the May Day holiday, downstream users actively entered the market to replenish goods before the festival, the market demand increased, the transaction atmosphere was good, the manufacturer shipped smoothly, most of the monomer factories increased the DMC factory price, the increase range was 200-500 yuan / ton. Until May 6, the market reference average price of organosilicon DMC had risen to 15330 yuan / ton. After the festival, the market demand weakened, the price rise was restrained, the manufacturer’s shipment was blocked, and the inventory gradually accumulated. Under the inventory pressure of some manufacturers, they were forced to reduce the factory price by 300-800 yuan / ton. On July 7, according to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of organosilicon DMC was around 14833 yuan / ton, the low-end price of some factories dropped to around 14200 yuan / ton, and the rare high-end price was around 15400 yuan / ton. In the following days, the market continued to decline until the 19th, as the price fell to a relatively low level, the downstream bargain hunting entered the market, the market transaction atmosphere improved, the manufacturer’s early inventory was basically digested, and the big single plant was eager to increase, through reducing the operating rate and other active regulation of the low price market, the price rose on the 20th, some manufacturers increased the ex factory quotation, and the range of adjustment was 100 -300 yuan / ton, followed by a week of stable operation. On the 29th, most monomer manufacturers raised the factory price of DMC again, with a large increase range. The average price rose to 15533 yuan / ton, the average price was adjusted around 500 yuan / ton, the rare low-end factory price was 15200 yuan / ton, and some high-end offers rose to 16000 yuan / ton.

It is understood that the following are the factory prices of major enterprises in the near future and the commencement of the plant (for reference only)

Name of enterprise date price (yuan / ton including tax) commencement of equipment

Normal operation of 15300 yuan / ton unit of Luxi Chemical on May 27

Zhejiang Xin’an Chemical Co., Ltd. normal operation of 15700 yuan / ton unit on May 29

Zhejiang Hesheng group normal operation of 15300 yuan / ton unit on May 27

Inner Mongolia hengyecheng has a maintenance plan of 15500 yuan / ton on May 27, June

Shandong Jinling group has a parking plan of 16000 yuan / ton on May 27 and June

Hubei Xingfa group May 27 – three sets of devices are in operation

Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Co., Ltd. has maintenance plan from May 27 to June

Shandong Dongyue Group has a parking plan from May 29 to June

Upstream metal silicon Market: the overall trend of upstream metal silicon in May was stable and slightly increased, which brought a certain positive support to the market of silicone DMC. In May, the price of silicon metal 441 was relatively stable, but there was still a dynamic stalemate between supply and demand. Supply side: silicon companies started less than expected, their inventory is lower than expected, and silicon companies are willing to hold up prices. Many start-up enterprises adopt the pre-sale mode to lock the production capacity in advance. Sales end: in May, the export market was weak, with a small amount of rigid procurement as the main demand; the downstream demand in the domestic market was relatively warmer, because of the doubt about the terminal demand and the short expectation of raw materials, the procurement of raw materials was cautious, mainly on demand, and the inventory of raw materials was low. 441 metal The price range of silicon is 11100-11200 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business club think that the rise at the end of May has brought a great deal of color to the DMC market in the whole may, and also laid a good start for the trend of the follow-up market. It is expected that the market of organosilicon DMC will continue to rise steadily in June.

1、 Trend analysis

On June 1, spot copper rose slightly, with a price of 44723.33 yuan / ton, up 1.26% from the previous trading day, down 8.79% from the beginning of the year, and down 3.92% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

In May, China’s manufacturing data expanded again. The current view on the expected recovery of the economy led the overall recovery of the market. At the same time, the market was worried that the outbreak of the epidemic in South America would promote the shortage of raw materials in the copper market and support the copper price. At present, the production of domestic enterprises has basically recovered, the overall demand level in May remains high, the copper inventory of the previous period has been accelerated for two consecutive weeks, and the inventory level has been lower than that of the same period last year. In May, the overall demand level remained high, and cable demand was the main driving force. Countries gradually restart their economies, and demand gradually changes. However, macro risks continue to exist, and mine end and scrap copper imports are also increasing.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts of nonferrous branch of business society think that the recovery of demand and tight supply expectation support copper price, which is expected to have strong short-term volatility.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of NBR first rose and then fell in May, with the price at the beginning of the month at 13700 yuan / ton, and then rose to 14000 yuan / ton, the highest point of the month, and then fell to 13900 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a slight increase of 1.46% compared with the beginning of the month as a whole at the end of the month. On May 30, the NBR commodity index was 65.46, flat with yesterday, 47.07% lower than 123.67 (2017-02-20), the highest point in the cycle, and 26.81% higher than 51.62, the lowest point on March 8, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now).

The rise of raw material price supported the NBR. Butadiene prices fell first and then rose, with an overall increase of 7.56%; acrylonitrile prices rose sharply, with an overall increase of 17.19%. According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic butadiene price at the beginning of the month was 3890 yuan / ton, rising to 4345 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, falling to 4184 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 7.56% on the whole at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month; the factory price of domestic acrylonitrile Shanghai Secco was increased from 6400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7500 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 17.19% on the whole.

The supply of NBR in May was lower than that in April. At the end of April, Lanzhou Petrochemical Company shut down and overhauled its 50000t / a NBR plant, which lasted until the middle of May. The supply of some NBR brands decreased, and the inventory consumption led to the upward trend of NBR market to a certain extent. At the end of May, Lanhua had 15000 T / a nitrile plant shutdown for maintenance, but other units in the industry started normally, and the supply side increased at the end of the month. In addition, at the end of the month, the downstream mainly consumed the early-stage inventory, most of the transactions were small orders, and the demand for nitrile rubber was slightly negative.

Aftermarket forecast: business analysts believe that in the later stage, on the one hand, raw materials have rebounded to a certain extent, on the other hand, it is unlikely to rise sharply again on this basis. In addition, after the early preparation of goods in the downstream, the transaction in the later stage will be dominated by small orders. In a comprehensive view, the negative effect on NBR is obvious. It is predicted that if there is no other device to stop for maintenance in the later stage, the possibility of weakening vibration of NBR will be greater.