1、 Price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of April 10, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9600 yuan / ton, with a 1.64% month on month drop in price and a 5.91% year-on-year increase.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic BDO market fluctuated in a narrow range. The main factory continued to reduce the quotation measures, the factory construction remained at a low level, and the market supply had a further reduction trend, but the effect was even from the market reaction. The form of foreign public health events is still severe, the domestic supply is further increased under the obstruction of export channels, while the downstream factories are also facing negative difficulties, and short-term demand is difficult to effectively boost. The imbalance between supply and demand is becoming more and more serious, which makes it difficult for the market to improve.

In terms of devices, this week, the 100000 t / a device of Shaanxi chemical industry phase II was shut down on March 27 and restarted in early April. Two 50000 T / a BDO units in Kaixiang, Henan Province were shut down on March 16, and a line was restarted in early April. Two sets of 50000 T / a BDO units of Henan Heci were shut down on March 28, which is expected to last for one month. This week, the start-up rate of alkynaldehyde process unit in BDO plant was 35.2%. Shaanxi chemical plant was restarted, and Tianxiang restarted a line. The start-up rate was 4.4% higher than last week

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol, this week, the focus of China’s methanol market is higher. Before last week’s holiday, traders in some regions were able to buy gas under the bottom reading operation. The overall shipment in the northwest region was relatively considerable. At present, the inventory pressure is not large, and some devices are stopped or reduced. Most of the operators have a strong mentality and the price focus at the beginning of the week is obviously higher. And the low price in the early stage is maintained, and the seller’s profit is obviously compressed. At present, with the gradual release of spring inspection information of some devices in some regions, the downstream demand also has a certain recovery expectation. The basic expectation is good for the support industry mentality, and most regions in the mainland follow-up.

Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide market was affected by the decline of PVC manufacturers, and the price dropped significantly. At present, the inventory of production enterprises in Northwest China is under pressure, and the market trading atmosphere is light. In order to promote shipment, the production enterprises reduce the ex factory price. At present, the ex factory price in Wuhai is 2250-2300 yuan / ton, and there is still a trend of further exploration. Influenced by the cost pressure, calcium carbide enterprises have also kept down the purchase price of Lancan in the near future. It is understood that the price of Lancan intermediate materials in Shaanxi is 620 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The overall downstream construction is low, and the demand for raw materials is light. Under the situation of supply and demand imbalance, BDO analysts predict that the short-term domestic BDO market will maintain a weak operation and wait for the development of public health events.

1、 Melamine price trend:

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis:

Products: melamine market in the near future weak operation. The average price of melamine enterprises quoted on April 8 was 5200 yuan / ton, down 2.5% compared with that on April 1, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On August 8, the mainstream price of melamine market in China was around 4600-5400 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4600 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 4900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 4800 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5000 yuan / ton.

On April 8, the melamine commodity index was 55.91, the same as yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 44.09% from the peak of 100.00 on September 18, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industrial chain: on April 8, the main factory price of small particle urea in Shandong Province was temporarily stable: Ruixing Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1700 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable; Mingshui Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1740 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable; Yangmei plain offered 1700 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable. On the whole, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong was temporarily stable on August 8, and the actual transaction price was subject to negotiation.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 16 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on April 8, 2020, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities are acetone (9.87%), bisphenol A (3.60%) and phthalic anhydride (3.19%). There are 14 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are hydrochloric acid (- 32.89%), ethylene (- 6.96%) and butadiene (- 6.32%). The average price of this day was – 0.27%.

3、 Future forecast:

Melamine analysts believe that the recent upstream urea market is mainly stable, with limited impact on melamine. At present, the supply of melamine market is sufficient, but the demand side is low, the contradiction between supply and demand is sharp, and the focus of market negotiation is weak under the pressure of sales. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be dominated by weak operation, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material price and the transaction situation in the mainstream market.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic aggregate MDI market was weak and volatile this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market was 11875 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market was 11350 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 4.42% in the week. The price was 10.98% lower than that of the same period last month and 37.29% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the price of aggregate MDI market was weak and fluctuated, and the negotiation fell slightly. In this week’s market, the overall atmosphere is sluggish. Agents are in the early stage of the month, shipping is a little cautious. Middlemen are pessimistic in the future. They are actively bagging for safety. The low-end prices are constantly refreshing. In the middle of the week, the rate of decline is accelerating. The weekly guidance prices of both costron and Ryanair factories are 11300 yuan / ton, and the industry is a little pessimistic. Huntsman and BASF Shanghai are understood to have maintenance plans by the end of April; one production line of Wanhua Ningbo plant is also temporarily shut down, and the supplier has been cheering up news about the coming weekend. Market low price news, but some industry still find it difficult to boost demand, prices still have room to fall.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene fell sharply this week. Affected by the decline of crude oil and external market, the price of East China market fell sharply. At present, the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea is closed, and the Chinese market has become the preferred arbitrage target for us dollar supply; the price advantage of imported goods compared with domestic contract goods also makes domestic downstream users tend to increase import volume and reduce contract volume. Therefore, negotiations on import sources were more active in the week.

Aniline: in the week, the domestic aniline market fell rapidly. At the beginning of the week, due to the low inventory of enterprises, the price of Shandong aniline Market remained stable. The price of the East China market was depressed by the impact of MDI enterprise contracts. As Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene continues to decrease, the price difference between raw material pure benzene and aniline widens, and the profit of aniline increases, and downstream plants are in conflict with high price aniline. In addition, Huatai and Jinling Dongying units are in normal operation, market supply is increasing, Jinling prices are falling, and other factories follow suit.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club view: under the supply-demand game, business club aggregation MDI analysts predict that the weak market of short-term domestic aggregation MDI will mainly wait and see the transaction situation.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the spot nickel price fluctuated narrowly this week, with a weekend quotation of 93866.67 yuan / ton, up 0.64% from 93266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 9.13% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

The main nickel market in Shanghai opened at 92900 at the beginning of this week, after which the low price rebounded and closed at 92640 on Friday, down 0.86% in the week. Lennie closed at $11290 at Friday’s closing, down 1.14% on a weekly basis.

This week’s nickel deal was flat, Jinchuan Nickel up discount was stable, Russia nickel flat water quotation, downstream receiving limited, cautious slightly. As of the end of the week, domestic spot nickel prices rose, and some businesses continued to stock up a small amount of goods before the festival, and the transaction heat fell. At present, affected by the foreign epidemic, traders are worried about export orders in the next two months. Downstream stainless steel stocks are still high. In terms of supply, at present, the supply of Philippines is at the annual low level, and the import of nickel ore is tight.

3、 Future prospects

Future forecast: Indonesia nickel miner association suggested the government relax nickel ore export, the impact of oversupply will reduce price expectations. In addition, due to the impact of public health events, the demand expectation is weakened, and the short-term low nickel price is expected to fluctuate.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of March 31, the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several mainstream areas monitored by the data was around 15200 yuan / ton, down by about 2860 yuan / ton compared with the average market price of 18066 yuan / ton in the middle of the month (March 15), down by nearly 15.87%; down by 3800 yuan / ton compared with the average market price of 19000 yuan / ton in the beginning of the month (March 1) About 20%.

2、 Market analysis

Products: in the whole March, the market of domestic organosilicon DMC fell seriously. Since the beginning of the month, it is difficult for the factory to withstand the inventory pressure. At the same time, some factories with large inventory took the lead in reducing the market quotation of organosilicon DMC, with the maximum reduction of 1000 yuan / ton. Most factories actively responded to the situation of oversupply of market by reducing the negative operation and controlling the operating rate. This round of adjustment However, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is still affected. The purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises is more cautious and the wait-and-see attitude is strong. The quotations of some dealers have dropped about 300-500 yuan / ton. After another week’s small fluctuation and decline, the market’s price stability mentality basically disintegrated, and the manufacturers have begun to show a low-cost bidding mode. Most of the manufacturers lowered the quotation of organosilicon DMC again. On March 16, the reference average price of data monitoring DMC market was around 18066 yuan / ton, and the price of some low-end offers was 17000 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, due to the aggravation of international public events, the export of organosilicon DMC was also limited, and the market offer was sharply lowered again, with a reduction of about 500-1000 yuan / ton. On March 23, the reference average price of data monitoring DMC market had dropped to near 15700 yuan / ton, and some low-end offers had fallen below 15000 yuan / ton. However, the downward trend of the market has not stopped. On the 30th, some quotations of organosilicon DMC market continued to loosen. The market reference average price has dropped to around 15200 yuan / ton, and some low-end quotations have reached around 14500 yuan / ton. At present, the market price has fallen to the cost price. This whole month’s sharp decline, the inventory of single plant can be digested and eased, and the market will gradually stop falling and stabilize operation.

Industry chain: upstream metal silicon Market: in domestic aspect, the market inventory is low, the silicon plant in Xinjiang area reduced production in February to March, and started at a low level, with a slight decline in monthly output on a month on month basis; the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan are not high, although the number of furnaces opened in Nujiang in Yunnan increased slightly on a month on month basis, but in the late March; some small-scale manufacturers in Fujian and Hunan area resumed production, with small capacity. Overall, the domestic operating rate in March was about 30%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month. It is reported that the current social inventory decreased nearly 30% year on year.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business club believe that the market of organosilicon DMC has fallen to the bottom. After inventory removal, the manufacturer’s heart of price increase has been expressed. It is expected that the market of organosilicon DMC will rise steadily in April.

1、 Price trend

In March 2020, the coke market continued to decline. The main market price in Shanxi Province was 1716.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 1563.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 8.93%.

On March 31, the coke commodity index was 82.06, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.23% from 135.04 (2018-09-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 136.83% from 34.65, the lowest point on March 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Trend analysis

Price: according to the data monitoring of business association, as of 31, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanghai is 1730 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of primary metallurgical coke is 1790 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Xuzhou is 1700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of primary metallurgical coke is 1770 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Weifang, Shandong is 1690 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of primary metallurgical coke is 1750 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province is 1750 yuan / ton The mainstream price of grade I metallurgical coke is 1590 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of grade I metallurgical coke is 1640 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of grade II metallurgical coke in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang is 1630 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of grade I metallurgical coke is 1690 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of grade II metallurgical coke in Shenyang, Liaoning Province is 1660 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of grade I metallurgical coke is 1720 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of grade II metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan Province is 1700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of grade I metallurgical coke is 1700 yuan / ton The mainstream price of metallurgical coke is 1800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan, Hebei is 1680 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1730 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tianjin is 1700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua, Sichuan is 1830 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Liupanshui, Guizhou is 1830 yuan / ton In 1920 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Ordos coke market is 1350 yuan / ton. The port trade of primary metallurgical coke is about 1950 yuan / ton, the trade of quasi primary metallurgical coke is about 1850 yuan / ton, and the trade of secondary metallurgical coke is about 1750 yuan / ton.

Import and export: according to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China exported 360000 tons of coke from January to February, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04 million tons, or 74.21%. The export volume of coke in January February was 90.48 million US dollars.

Product: the coke market continued to decline this month, down three times, accumulatively down 150 yuan / ton. By the end of 31, the main transaction price of quasi first grade wet quenching coke in Shanxi was about 1550-1650 yuan / ton. At the beginning of this month, due to the start-up of downstream steel plants has not fully recovered, the demand for coke is limited, and the price of coke has declined. After the middle and late ten days, the steel plant gradually returned to work, mainly purchasing coke on demand. In April, the environmental protection and production restriction will be in place in Hebei Province. In April, the iron and steel enterprises with performance evaluation of a and B in Tangshan city will not limit production. The iron and steel enterprises with performance evaluation of C will implement hierarchical control. The demand of the steel plant is limited, and there is no strong support for coke. The coke enterprises have stable start-up, and the price is slightly lower.

Upstream and downstream: in March, from the perspective of steel market, the firmness of raw material price and the decline of finished product price put great pressure on the profits of steel mills. Although there is still a profit margin of 87.78% (survey data of 247 steel mills in China), the overall profit level is low. According to the data of CISA, from January to February, member steel enterprises realized a year-on-year drop of 6.04% in sales revenue, a year-on-year drop of 35.8% in profits, and a year-on-year drop of 1.09% in sales profit margin of only 2.35%. It can be seen that its profit is expected to decrease even more at the industry level in March.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, the price of bulk commodities in the list of energy sector rose one commodity month on month, with LNG (7.42%) rising. There are 15 commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 13 commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 81.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling were WTI crude oil (- 57.34%), Brent crude oil (- 48.93%) and liquefied gas (- 26.85%), with an average increase or decrease of – 19.01% this month.

3、 Future forecast

In the follow-up, we will focus on the operating rate and price trend of the steel plant. With the gradual recovery of domestic production, the demand for coke has risen steadily, and the price of coke still has support for a long time.

1、 Price trend

Recently, caprolactam has fallen in a row, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list. On March 18, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 10266 yuan / ton, on March 27, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 9266 yuan / ton, and the price fell 9.74% on March 10. On March 27, the caprolactam commodity index was 46.61, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 53.39% lower than the highest point of 100.00 on March 2, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: crude oil plummeted, cost was under heavy pressure, caprolactam fell continuously. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9000 yuan / ton, cash is delivered from the factory, the capacity of the manufacturer is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 9800 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 9200 yuan / ton, and the 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 9200 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted.

Industrial chain: the price focus of raw material pure benzene has moved down again, and the port inventory has accumulated slightly. Sinopec sharply lowered the listing price of pure benzene on August 18 and 19, with a total decrease of 1450 yuan / ton, or 28.63%. At the beginning of the month, the average listing price of pure benzene was 5380.2 yuan / ton, and on the 20th, the average listing price was 3840 yuan / ton, down 28.63%. Imports of pure benzene fell sharply, the market negative mentality is heavier. Downstream products were dragged down by weak terminal demand, inventory release was slow, and the pure benzene market continued to be negative.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 12th week of 2020 (3.23-3.27), there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are formic acid (17.09%), isopropanol (17.08%) and nitric acid (3.23%). There are 40 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 19.30%), crude benzene (- 15.83%) and ethylene oxide (- 13.16%). This week’s average was – 1.6%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of caprolactam, a business association, believe that the pure benzene market follows the decline due to the fall of international oil price, and the cost side of caprolactam has been greatly explored. The market is in wait-and-see mood, and downstream demand weakens. It is expected that the market of caprolactam will be dominated by weak and sluggish operation in the short term.