On October 16, the fluorite commodity index was 100.58, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.11% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 104.39% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite fluctuates at a low level. As of the 16th day, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2866.67 yuan / ton. In the near future, the domestic fluorite plant is in normal operation, the mine and flotation plant in the field are in normal operation, the supply of fluorite in the field is sufficient, and the downstream hydrofluoric acid price remains at a low level in the near future. For the purchase on demand in the fluorite market, the goods in the fluorite field are in poor condition, and the market price of fluorite is temporarily stable. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not improved, resulting in weak market price. As of June 16, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan / ton, and that of fluorite remained low.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite remains low. As of the 16th, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 9780 yuan / ton. The low market price of hydrofluoric acid has a certain negative impact on the upstream market of fluorite. However, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is generally, the demand for fluorite is weakened, and the price of fluorite remains low and volatile. In the near future, the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has a general trading market, and the domestic refrigerant R22 market has a low volatility. From the perspective of market supply, the refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s production units reduce the starting load, the market supply capacity has declined, and the inventory pressure has been buffered. In terms of demand, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturers maintain the air-conditioner, and the demand is only reduced but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises is 12000-14000 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market remains low. At present, R134a market has entered the off-season, downstream demand is relatively weak, and the operating rate of several R134a production enterprises remains low. However, the transaction price in the market keeps falling, the merchants purchase on demand, the peak season ends, the downstream demand of the terminal only decreases but not increases, and the affected price of fluorite market is at a low level.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry is low and the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry is poor. However, as the temperature drops, the supply of fluorite in the North may decrease. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may maintain a low trend.

Nickel spot trend

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, the spot price of nickel on October 15 was 134016.67 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 2.37% compared with 137266.67 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, an increase of 49.73% compared with the beginning of the year, and a year-on-year increase of 31.51%. Now nickel price is mainly high and weak.

Indonesia’s early ban on mining has raised concerns that businesses are scrambling for nickel

Indonesia will ban mining in January 2020 in advance, and then add the rainy season in the Philippines. A large number of domestic pig iron plants and traders rush to buy, and the raw material inventory of some plants even increases to 8-10 months.

LME nickel inventory continues to decline

Indonesia’s early ban on mining has raised concerns that since the beginning of October, the inventory of LUNI nickel has been declining, with an average daily decline of more than 4000 tons and a cumulative decline of nearly 40%. However, the market has reacted coldly to this.

Downstream stainless steel prices are firm

According to the price monitoring of business agency, as of October 15, the daily average price of 304 / 2B stainless steel plate 1.0 * 1219 * 2438 (tolerance 0.91) was 14628.57 yuan / ton (tax included), slightly increased by 0.24% compared with 14592.86 yuan / ton (tax included) the previous day, increased by 8.16% compared with the beginning of the year, and decreased by 0.21% year on year.

Stainless steel prices are firm due to Wuxi accident

Based on the demand for replenishment of downstream warehouses after the festival, some agents and traders in Wuxi responded that last Friday’s transaction was better than that before the festival; in Foshan, in mid October, the downstream goods were more optimistic than before, the release of demand increased, and businesses were mainly flexible in shipment. In addition, due to the recent accidents in Wuxi area, which led to a sharp rise in freight rates, and traffic jams leading to delays in the arrival of goods, the spot market generally raised prices.

To sum up, Liu Meili, nickel analyst of business association, believes that the sharp drop in nickel inventory is mainly due to the concern about the impact of large amount of inventory on next year’s nickel supply, rather than the actual use situation now. Although the price of stainless steel is firm now, mainly due to the cost increase caused by emergencies, its inventory is still high and the demand is not good. In addition, nickel rose too high in the early stage, and the market has been waiting to be digested. Today, affected by the opening of black series, nickel price also fell slightly. The fundamentals of weak supply and demand exist for a long time, and nickel price is expected to remain high and weak.

Price Trend

This week (10.07-10.12) the domestic 1# tin ingot market shocks higher, the domestic market average price at the beginning of the week at 135712.50 yuan/ton, the weekend at 137037.50 yuan/ton, up 0.98%.

On October 11, the tin commodity index was 69.81, down 0.06 points from yesterday, down 30.36% from the peak of 100.25 points in the cycle (2011-09-05), and up 62.88% from the low of 42.86 points on December 09, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic market: As of Friday, the domestic spot market price is about 13600-138000 yuan/ton, and some small-brand goods are slightly lower than 500 yuan/ton. In the futures market this week, against the background of the US economic data being less than expected, the US dollar index fell, while the Renzi price rebounded in the short run. Lunsey hit a stage low of 15,850 yuan/ton on September 30, and then recovered from the bottom. This week, it was in a cross-market consolidation situation, with a high and stable center of gravity. Shanghai and Tin also set a stage low of 133260 yuan/ton on September 30, closing at 136150 yuan/ton on Friday, rising by 1350 yuan/ton a week, or 1.00% a week. Within a week, turnover of 105,000 hands, position of 38,868 hands, an increase of 1278 hands. In terms of lifting and discounting, due to the overall upward trend of the center of gravity of the tin disk in Shanghai Stock Exchange, the spot lifting range narrowed slightly compared with the beginning of the week. On Friday, the lifting range of Panyun Tin for Shanghai Tin 2001 contract was 800-1000 yuan/ton, 200-400 yuan/ton for ordinary Yunzi, 200 yuan/ton for small-brand Tin 2001 contract.

Industry events: Indonesia’s refined tin exports fell 41% year-on-year in September: Jakarta, Oct. 11, data released by Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade on Friday showed that Indonesia’s refined tin exports fell 41% year-on-year in September. Data show that Indonesia exported 5,225.26 tons of refined tin last month, down from 8,854.30 tons in the same period last year. According to the monthly benchmark, the export of refined tin fell by 5% in September compared with the previous month.

Non-ferrous industry: The market has just come back from the National Day holiday with weak performance of important economic data in Europe and the United States. The Federal Reserve is expected to further cut interest rates. The US index is hovering near the 99-point high. Domestic metal pressures are in the first place. However, with the opening of a new round of high-level trade negotiations between China and the United States, market confidence has been boosted, and domestic metal performance has recovered some of the decline.

III. future prospects

In the next week’s domestic and foreign economic data sets, market expectations are weak. Under the downward pressure of the global economy, the US dollar index may be under pressure. The development trend of Sino-US trade negotiations will also establish the performance atmosphere of the market, and face delivery next week. Metal products will be more led by their basic trends.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the overall domestic phosphate ore market has been running smoothly this week. Some enterprises have adjusted their prices slightly. Due to regional differences and different output, the price difference is relatively large. Taking into account the prices of several sample areas, the market price of phosphate ore has increased by 1.6% as of October 12.

II. Market Analysis

Products: After the National Day, the domestic phosphate ore market has maintained stable operation, with little fluctuation in price, light on-site delivery, supply of old customers orders by mining enterprises, and small increase in quotations by some mines and traders. At present, 28% of the price of phosphate ore in Hubei is around 420 yuan/ton, 30% of the price of phosphate ore in Hubei is around 460-470 yuan/ton, and 30% of the grade phosphate ore in Guizhou is near 460-470 yuan/ton. In the vicinity of 360-400 yuan per ton of tariff quoted by mainstream freight plants, the quoted price of some freight plants in Guizhou increased slightly compared with that before the festival, with an increase of 20 yuan per ton. The tariff quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore mainstream from Hebei province maintained near 530 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: After the festival, the market demand for yellow phosphorus has improved slightly. After the festival, yellow phosphorus plants have resumed operation. Many plants in Yunnan have resumed production. Wengfu and Longma yellow phosphorus plants in Guizhou have resumed production. The supply of yellow phosphorus has increased compared with before the festival. At present, the yellow phosphorus market transactions refer to the vicinity of 18300-18800 yuan/ton. Phosphoric acid market is stable for the time being. At present, the market is dominated by inquiries, sporadic purchases, and the trading atmosphere is dull.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business society data analysts believe that: in late October, the phosphate ore market is expected to operate stably, and after the pre-order processing, the new unit price may be adjusted.

Price Trend

The domestic toluene Market showed a volatile pullback trend this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.7%, due to the oil price rebound, according to business associations’data.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Affected by the weak economic indicators in Europe and the United States, the rapid recovery of Saudi crude oil production capacity and the oil price rebound, the domestic toluene market is still in a volatile rebound trend this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 6450-6530 yuan/ton. According to the feedback from traders, the trading volume fell slightly from last week, and the port inventory remained low.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil, affected by the rapid recovery of Saudi oil production, this month’s oil price rebound, spot Brent fell 2.98%, Brent futures fell 3.44%, WTI futures fell 0.78%, Dubai futures fell 5.19%.

Downstream, TDI, this week’s price trend is stable, short-term TDI is expected to remain weak and stable trend. Outside prices rose slightly from last week, with FOB ARA Toluene TDI roughly around $682 per ton. In PX market, the domestic PX price trend is stable, and it is expected that the PX market price will maintain a stable trend in the short term.
3. Future Market Forecast

Xylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that next week we will continue to focus on the trend of the Middle East situation, the progress of tariff imposition in Sino-US trade negotiations, and the European and American economies are worried about the expected fluctuation of demand for crude oil in the recession prospects. The toluene market is expected to continue to shake and adjust next week due to growing economic recession concerns in Europe and the United States.

On October 9, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 89.20, down 0.55 points from yesterday, down 36.48% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 66.45% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend remains low, up to the present domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is 9830 yuan/ton, the domestic hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is less than 60%, enterprises reflect that the current on-site supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, recent on-site hydrofluoric acid immovable goods, due to the downstream demand is not improving, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers continue to reduce prices, hydrofluoric acid market prices are small. The amplitude is low. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 9000-9500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is between 9000-10000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price maintained a low level, spot supply is sufficient, but the demand situation is poor, hydrofluoric acid market price maintained a low level.

Upstream fluorite market prices remained low, up to 10 days, the price of fluorite was 2866.67 yuan/ton. The downward price of upstream raw materials had a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. The market price of hydrofluoric acid was at a low level due to the lower price of raw materials fluorite. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market prices remain low, from the point of view of market supply, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce start-up load, market supply capacity has declined, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, the downstream air conditioning manufacturers’overhaul, the demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainstream at the level of 12,000-14,000 yuan per ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, the on-site transaction price is lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods, downstream demand is not improving, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low.

Refrigerant field turnover is poor, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, but manufacturers reflect a serious loss, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may decline, but the decline is limited.

Price trends:

In September 2019, the hydrobenzene market rose. The ex-factory price in North China was 516.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 5600 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 9.45%.

On September 30, the hydrobenzene commodity index was 61.81, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.41% from the peak of 102.01 points in the cycle (2014-01-09), and up 38.71% from the low of 44.56 points on August 31, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2013-12-01 to date).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: Hydrobenzene market rose this month with a monthly increase of 9.45%. Crude oil rose sharply in mid-September under the influence of Saudi Arabia incident. Outer market of pure benzene rose sharply. FOB Korea closed up 41.5 US dollars/ton at 734-736 US dollars/ton. CFR China rose 28.5 US dollars/ton at 739-741 US dollars/ton. The hydrogenated benzene market was driven higher, and the manufacturers increased 150-200 yuan / ton within the week of offer, and the overall operating rate of the unit this week was about 50%. The price difference between crude benzene and hydrobenzene was reduced. The profit is reduced, so the manufacturer’s willingness to ship is low. Downstream units such as styrene and phenol start up relatively high, stock sentiment is relatively strong, and the price of hydrobenzene is better supported. At the end of the month, with the approaching of the National Day holiday, market turnover is limited, the market gravity is downward, and the price at the end of the month falls by 150-250 yuan/ton in the week. Affected by environmental protection and production cost, the comprehensive start-up level of hydrobenzene dropped to the lowest level in the near future at the end of the month, and the shipment enthusiasm of hydrobenzene manufacturers increased.

Industry Chain: Crude Oil: On September 14, Saudi Arabia’s largest crude oil facility was attacked by unmanned aerial vehicles, resulting in more than 5 million barrels per day production suspension, Saudi oil output and exports were greatly affected, international oil prices jumped, rising by more than 10%. Due to the sharp rise of international oil price, which is good for the bulk market, pure benzene rose sharply on June 16-18. This month, WTI oil prices rose by 1.64% compared with last month, while Brent oil prices rose by 5.75%. Pure benzene: At the beginning of the month, due to the lower inventory of pure benzene in East China, the market supply is on the low side, and the price of pure benzene has an obvious rise. Affected by the Saudi Arabian incident on the 16th, crude oil and pure benzene external market soared, driving the domestic market of pure benzene upward. This month, the total spot of pure benzene is on the low side, and the port inventory keeps falling, which supports the high price of pure benzene. At the end of the month, the impact of the Saudi Arabian incident subsided, the crude oil outer disk declined, the price gap between domestic and foreign decreased, and the high price support of pure benzene weakened. In addition, near 11, downstream environmental protection inspection, parking restrictions in some factories, pure benzene just needed insufficient, the market fell.

3. Trend forecast:

Prices of crude benzene rose sharply in the early period, and the pressure of hydrogenated benzene was strong. With the environmental upgrade, the maintenance of hydrogenated benzene enterprises increased, the shipment was positive, and there was downward space in the future.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the stable operation of soda ash this week is dominant. The average market price of East China during the week to the weekend is about 1740 yuan/ton, which is stable compared with last week, and 18.05% lower than that of last year. On September 29, the commodity index of light soda ash was 89.23, flat with yesterday, 24.29% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 117.86 (2017-11-21), and 41.30% higher than the lowest point, 63.15, on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic soda price maintained a stable operation, the market was light and stable, and the trading atmosphere was mild. At present, the domestic light alkali mainstream ex-factory price was 1650-1770 yuan/ton; the domestic heavy alkali mainstream delivered to the terminal price was 1750-1850 yuan/ton. This week, the heavy alkali market did not change much, the manufacturers’shipment situation was relatively smooth, the market stock was expected to rise, and the manufacturers carried out the end-of-month pricing more.

Industry chain: In the downstream area, the price of sodium pyrosulfite has been stable this week, the overall market performance is general, the cost of raw materials continues to be weak adjustment, the upstream and downstream trading entities are cautious in overall purchasing and selling, the downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite may continue to run in a weak position.

Glass prices in the lower reaches of the country rose slightly this week. Southern and Eastern China have a general trend, with little change in the speed of production enterprises leaving warehouses and stable market transaction prices. The general trend of glass market in other areas is still acceptable. The manufacturers have maintained a good level of export, and market confidence has increased slightly. From a subregional point of view, the situation of North-South polarization continues to emerge. The market as a whole maintained a steady and moderate upward trend.

Industry: This week, the domestic soda market is running smoothly, the overall market turnover is mild, more active order delivery is the main, the current delivery pressure is not large, price transaction is stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that: this week, the domestic light alkali market is running steadily, the supply of enterprises is relatively stable, downstream demand is weak, the enthusiasm of end users is not high, stable price mentality is strong. It is expected that the consolidation of the soda market will be the main trend in the short term, and the demand of the downstream market will be taken into account.

Price Trend

Butadiene market rose broadly in September 2019. Business Association monitoring showed that the price of butadiene at the beginning of the month was 10354 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 11581 yuan/ton. The price of butadiene rose 11.85% in the month, falling by 1.74% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: in September, the price of domestic butadiene was wide and the price of Sinopec East China and China increased by 1900 yuan / ton to 12500-12600 yuan / ton. The price of some export manufacturers in the North rose first and then fell, and the cumulative chain rose little. The price of Sinopec rose by 800 yuan / ton. In September, the domestic butadiene market rose in the middle of the year. Domestic circulation of spot resources continued to tighten, in the middle of the month, the North China brocade and the HP device planned to park outside, the superposed crude oil was affected by the external news surface, the market good news releases centrally, and the downstream part of the rally mood supports, the market surges rapidly. However, the range of downstream market follow-up is limited, and the transaction price of ocean-going vessels in the outer market of butadiene is difficult to push up. As the atmosphere of replenishing warehouses in the downstream of northern China has cooled, the butadiene market has stopped rising and consolidated in the second half of the year. At the end of the month, manufacturers released a large number of holiday inventory pressures before the festival, and the supply increment in the North slowed down rapidly. However, due to transportation constraints, there was no obvious low-price inflow of goods in East China for the time being. Businessmen had no obvious intention of initiative to underreport. They were cautious in anticipating the market after the festival and were mainly on the lookout. In terms of price, the best products in Shandong are priced at 11100-11200 yuan / ton, and 12400-12500 yuan / ton in eastern China for reference.

Enterprises: Sinopec East China butadiene supply price increased by 1900 yuan/ton to 12 500 yuan/ton, North China price increased by 1000 yuan/ton to 11 600 yuan/ton, Central China price increased by 500 yuan/ton to 11 100 yuan/ton; In mid-month, Huajin butadiene plant stopped for two weeks or so, the bottom bidding price of nodes was 10 310 yuan/ton as of 16 days, the transaction price was 11 110 yuan/ton, and the export volume shrank during the month affected by plant parking. Reduced to 858 tons. As of 29 days, the bottom price of Sinopec’s auction was 10500 yuan / ton, the transaction price was 10500-10520 yuan / ton, the total volume in the month was 3180 tons, the increment was 89.29%, and the 100 thousand tons / year oxidation dehydrogenation unit of the company was stopped on 1-8 and 23-25 days in September respectively. The price of gold is 12000 yuan / ton, which rose by 14.29% at the end of last month. About September 20th, the Haldia Petrochemicals 97 thousand tons / year facility in India stopped unexpectedly, which affected some export plans and heard that the device plan was restarted at the beginning of next month. Please continue to pay attention to the details.

Industry: in September 2019, BCI of the business community was 0.31, with an average increase of 3.77%, reflecting the expansion of the manufacturing economy in the month compared with the previous month and the stable operation of the economy.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the future, the positive aspects are: the spot resources in East China are relatively tight; the price gap between the North and the South is large, the profits of the downstream industry are upside down, the start of construction is declining, the external market trend is weak, and the ocean-going ship cargo arrives at port to replenish. Due to the fall of the northern market before the festival and the uncertainty of the holiday external market news, it is expected that the return market after the festival will remain in order for the time being; however, the current price gap between the north and the south is widening, and after the festival it is not excluded that the inflow of low-priced goods from the north will lead to the fall of high prices in eastern China. At the same time, the high price of butadiene causes downstream rubber industry to start a certain downward risk. Overall, although the short-term supply side of small-scale market in East China is slightly supportive, under the influence of the northern market and downstream demand, business community butadiene analysts predict that domestic butadiene supply and demand is weak as a whole and the market downturn is likely.