Recently, the domestic butadiene market has gone down, the price has dropped again and again, the closing price of the external market has dropped significantly, and the ex factory quotations of major manufacturers have been reduced continuously. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic butadiene market price dropped from 7415 yuan / ton to 6718 yuan / ton from April 1 to April 7, with a price drop of 9.39% in the cycle, a 20.14% month on month drop, and a 62.73% year-on-year rise.

The domestic butadiene market was slightly weak, mainly finishing, and the market supply was still relatively abundant. Some suppliers continued to sell at a falling price, and the market focus was slightly lower. Although there are sporadic businesses affected by the high cost of holding positions and have no intention to lower, but in the supply side drag, market trading is still weak.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s sales companies quoted 7900 yuan / ton of Butadiene on April 1, and fell to 6800 yuan / ton on April 7, with a decrease of 1100 yuan / ton. Fushun Petrochemical and Liaotong chemical products are sold at low price through competitive price. At the same time, the social inventory of butadiene is increased. The downstream demand is relatively stable, and the contradiction between supply and demand is obvious for a time. Most of the traders take low price as the main way.

External market: as of April 6, the external price of butadiene in Asia fell: FOB Korea closed at US $995-1005 / T, down 30 US dollars / T; CFR China closed at US $1035-1045 / T, down 30 US dollars / T. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at USD 1045-1055 / T; FD closed at EUR 795-805 / T in northwest Europe.

Region, country, closing price, rise and fall

Asia ﹣ FOB Korea ﹣ 995-1005 USD / T – 30 USD / T

In Asia, the CFR for China is US $1035-1045 / t-us $30 / T

Europe ﹣ FOB Rotterdam ﹣ 1045-1055 USD / T ﹣ 0 USD / T

Euro 795-805 / T Euro 0 / T

In the future, on the one hand, the supply side of East China and domestic suppliers is relatively abundant, on the other hand, the inventory of downstream raw materials is relatively abundant, and the market’s ability to accept high price sources is limited. Business community butadiene analysts expect that the domestic butadiene market will be in a downturn in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated in a narrow range this week, with a slight drop. On March 28, the price of mixed xylene was 5487.5 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (April 4), the price was 5460 yuan / ton, down 27.5 yuan / ton or 0.5% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s mixed xylene price adjustment range is – 200 / + 100 (yuan / ton). The inventory of ports in East and South China decreased slightly. At present, the downstream demand is stable, and the trend of mixed xylene is obviously affected by the crude oil at the cost level. Recently, the crude oil fluctuates greatly, and the mixed xylene lacks clear upward momentum. In terms of external market, as of April 1, the price of South Korea’s imported mixed xylene was 714 US dollars / ton, down 19 US dollars / ton or 2.59% on March 26, and the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 730 US dollars / ton, down 20 US dollars / ton or 2.67% on March 26.

In terms of crude oil, OPEC + decided to gradually increase crude oil production from May, and Saudi Arabia will gradually reduce the number of additional voluntary production cuts. On March 26, Brent fell $1.61 per barrel, or 2.52%; WTI rose $0.52 per barrel, or 0.85%.

Downstream, PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week fell compared with last week, the price was 6400 yuan / ton, down 4.48% compared with last week, up 36.17% compared with the beginning of the year, up 48.84% compared with the same period last week. The production capacity of domestic p-xylene plants is mainly concentrated in East China. Sinopec and private enterprises have started their plants normally, with an on-site operation rate of more than 90%. The on-site supply is normal, and the goods are in good condition. As of April 1, closing prices in Asia were 784-786 USD / T FOB Korea and 802-804 USD / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China surged higher this week. On Sunday (April 4), the price was 4430 yuan / ton, up 0.73% from last week and 34.38% from the same period last year. As of April 2, PTA operation rate was 79.4%, down from last week. External offer: as of April 2, the mainstream quotation of CFR China PTA for external offer was US $645 / T.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox fell this week compared with last week. On Sunday, the price of ox in East China was 5400 yuan / ton, down 5.26% compared with last week and up 42.11% compared with the same period last year. Affected by the centralized arrival of import and inland ship cargo, the port inventory of o-xylene in the terminal continued to grow, and the main port in East China’s o-xylene inventory exceeded the 60000 tons mark, reaching the highest level in the past five years. There is little room for the price of domestic o-benzene to fall, but the port inventory is high, so the price of o-benzene is difficult to rise; the downstream demand is obviously declining, so the port o-benzene inventory is difficult to fall, and the support for the rise of o-benzene is insufficient

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

At present, the price of mixed xylene mainly fluctuates with the trend of crude oil, focusing on the latest progress of European epidemic and vaccination, the impact of US dollar exchange rate and US debt on crude oil price. We should pay attention to the impact of xylene plant operation, arrival volume and downstream demand change on the price.

On April 1, the crude benzene commodity index was 66.51, down 0.37 points from yesterday, down 49.55% from 131.84 points (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 117.78% from 30.54 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In March 2021, the crude benzene market fluctuated. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene was 4725 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4271 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 9.61%.

In March 2021, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was reduced three times, and now it is RMB 6350 / T, among which Qilu Petrochemical is RMB 6150 / T, which was reduced three times this week, with a total reduction of RMB 400 / T.

In March, the crude benzene market fluctuated in a wide range in the first ten days of the year, and dropped sharply in the last ten days. At the beginning of the month, crude benzene prices declined slightly due to the downward impact of pure benzene and crude oil prices. At the beginning of the month, the crude benzene market supply was loose, and the bad fundamentals affected the crude benzene price downward. In the middle of the month, the crude benzene price rose due to the sharp rise of crude oil and other favorable fundamentals. At the end of the month, the price of pure benzene went down all the way. Sinopec lowered the ex factory price of pure benzene by 400 yuan / ton. Under the influence of bad fundamentals, the price of crude benzene in Shandong Province decreased by 530 yuan / ton around the 25th. In terms of start-up, at present, the environmental protection policy for coking enterprises is relatively loose, the profits of coking enterprises are fair, the production and marketing are active, the new production capacity is still put into production one after another, and the market supply is fair.

In March 2021, the overall operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is about 60%. At present, the price difference of crude benzene hydrogenated benzene is reasonable, the profits of hydrogenated benzene enterprises are improved, and the production and sales of enterprises are active. Although the start-up of some units is not stable, it has little impact on the demand for crude benzene.

In the future, the business association thinks that the profit of hydrobenzene enterprises is good, the construction is active, and the demand for crude benzene is good. Pure benzene Market in the crude oil driven upward trend, in the fundamentals of good support, crude benzene market has upward space in the future.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business news agency, as of April 1, the average price of domestic Mannheim potassium sulfate 50 particle sample was 2916.67 yuan / ton, which was 4.79% higher than that at the beginning of the month, and 1.45% higher than that at the same period of last year.

In March, the potassium sulfate market continued a positive trend. At present, the overall start-up rate of Mannheim potassium sulfate plant in China is more than 70%, slightly lower than last month, and generally stable. On April 1, the factory reference price of 52% potassium sulfate powder of Shijiazhuang hehe Chemical Co., Ltd. was 3000 yuan / ton. Shijiazhuang Haofang chemical 50% potassium sulfate powder factory reference price of 2850 yuan / ton. At the same time, potassium nitrate and potassium chloride market also rose this month, potassium sulfate cost side support is strong. At present, all parts of the country are coming to the end of the demand for spring ploughing, and the compound fertilizer market is about to start to weaken. However, due to the rising cost caused by the large contract in the early stage, coupled with the low domestic inventory and the requirements of the national storage policy, it is expected that the spot market will be tight. This month, the decline rate of potassium sulfate inventory slowed down, and there was a certain pressure on sales, which was also one of the factors that potassium sulfate rose less than expected when the upstream and downstream were stronger.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of business news agency believe that: the price of potash fertilizer continued to rise in March, potassium chloride and potassium nitrate increased significantly this month, and potassium sulfate rose steadily due to many positive effects. At present, the domestic operating rate is generally stable, and the market industry reflects that there is an agreement resistance in shipment. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price will remain stable at a high level in the near future.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart of p-xylene, it can be seen that the price of p-xylene remained stable in March. As of March 31, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6700 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price at the beginning of the month. The price trend of domestic PX market in March was stable.

In March, the domestic supply of p-xylene was normal, and the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%. Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical 600000 ton unit operated stably, Yangzi petrochemical unit operated stably, Pengzhou petrochemical unit operated stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operated normally, Jinling Petrochemical unit operated stably, Qingdao Lidong unit operated at full load, Qilu petrochemical unit operated stably, and Urumqi petrochemical unit operated stably The domestic supply of p-xylene is average, but there are many overhauls of overseas units, and the domestic price of p-xylene remains high. Recently, the international crude oil price has maintained around us $60 / barrel, and the PX external price has declined. As of the 31st, the closing prices in Asia are US $795-797 / T FOB Korea and US $813-815 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia is normal. As a whole, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia is less than 60%, the supply of PX in Asia is general, and the PX external closing price has dropped sharply, Affected by the external price, the price trend of domestic p-xylene market is temporarily stable.

In March, the oil price dropped slightly, and the production restriction policy of OPEC + was extended. However, the commercial crude oil inventory of the United States rose. In addition, the vaccine advance was slow under the background of the resurgence of the epidemic situation, and the economic recovery was expected to slow down. The recent decline in oil prices is mainly due to the repeated epidemic situation in Europe and emotional stimulation. However, the market generally believes that this is only a short-term impact. With the acceleration of vaccination progress in the later stage, the process of global economic recovery can still be expected. The overall positive effect of oil price on the demand side can also be predicted. In addition, OPEC’s production control policy still provides the main support for the supply side. During the implementation period before the end of April, the crude oil supply side has little change. According to the monitoring, on March 31, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was 59.16 US dollars / barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was 62.74 US dollars / barrel. Affected by this, the price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.

In the near future, the price trend of PTA Market in the downstream has dropped sharply, and the domestic PTA spot market has declined. As of the 31st, the average price of PTA market is 4400-4450 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 6.96% in March. PTA supply continues to be at a high level. Due to limited maintenance efforts, the operation rate of domestic PTA plant is about 85%. The orderly resumption of the terminal market after the festival has made the resumption time ahead of schedule. As of March 31, the comprehensive start-up rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased to more than 86%. As the current PTA price is still affected by crude oil, the number of new cases in Europe increases, the blockade and restriction measures are restarted, and the market is worried that the blocked vaccination process in Europe will damage the economic recovery and fuel demand. The sharp decline of crude oil has dragged down the center of gravity of the chemical products market, weakened the support for PTA cost, and the continuous decline of downstream market, which has a certain negative impact on PX market.

Business community PX analyst Chen Ling believes that there is a certain risk of decline in the current cost side, short-term crude oil prices will remain high volatility, but the downstream PTA and textile market is not optimistic, and it is expected that the market price of p-xylene will fall later.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, as of March 31, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 15933.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous day, increased by 7.9% compared with the beginning of the month, and decreased by 13.09% compared with the same period last year.

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business community, as of March 31, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 20433.33 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day, up 3.37% from the beginning of the month, and down 10.51% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

R22: the price of raw materials tends to be stable, chloroform rises and then falls back, but the support force is still strong, the demand side is relatively stable, just need to purchase mainly, although the market gradually enters the peak season, the market trading still has not improved significantly, the enthusiasm of taking goods is general, the manufacturers mainly send orders, and the attitude of supporting the market is strong. At present, R22 market quotation is around 15500-17000 yuan / ton, Shandong quotation is about 16000-17000 yuan / ton, Zhejiang quotation is about 15500-16000 yuan / ton, Hunan quotation is about 15500-16000 yuan / ton, Shanghai quotation is about 16000 yuan / ton.

R134a: the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is stable and still has support, but the follow-up of the demand side is insufficient, the demand of the car market is poor, and the transaction of high price R134a new order is general, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. At present, R134a market quotation is mostly in the range of 19000-22000 yuan / ton, Shandong quotation is about 20000-20500 yuan / ton, Zhejiang quotation is about 20000-22000 yuan / ton, Hunan quotation is about 21000-21500 yuan / ton, Jiangsu quotation is about 22000 yuan / ton, Shanghai quotation is about 21000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, on March 31, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 10000-11000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price trend of on-site merchants rose slightly. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was general, and the supply of on-site goods was slightly tight. Affected by the high price of fluorite, the market trend of downstream refrigerants was temporarily stable in the near future, and the on-demand purchase was mainly on-site. It is expected that the on-site price will rise slightly in the later period .

Trichloromethane. On March 30, the reference price of trichloromethane was 3750.00, up 23.76% compared with that on March 1 (3030.00). At present, the inventory pressure of methane chloride production enterprises in Shandong Province is not great. In addition, the downstream procurement has slightly recovered, and the liquid chlorine is rising. It is expected that the price of methane chloride will rise steadily in the future.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business society, at present, the raw material prices are stable and the supporting force is acceptable, but the demand side follow-up is general, the receiving capacity is limited, the high price transaction atmosphere is general, the manufacturers mainly supply orders, and the willingness to support the price is relatively strong. It is expected that the R22 and R134a market will run stably in the short term, and there is an upward expectation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the overall price of caustic soda in March was the main actor. The average market price at the beginning of the month was about 457.5 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was about 490 yuan / ton, with an increase of 7.1%, and a decrease of 9.68% compared with the same period last year. On March 29, the commodity index of caustic soda was 70.50, which was the same as yesterday. Compared with the highest point 206.87 in the cycle (November 14, 2017), it decreased by 65.92%, and increased by 8.28% compared with the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

In March, the price of caustic soda was the main factor. The reason for the rising price of caustic soda is that the factory has concentrated maintenance and the supply side is slightly tight. At present, the main stream of 32% caustic soda is 390-500 yuan / ton. In Hebei area, the market of caustic soda fluctuates in a narrow range. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 460-600 yuan / ton. Jiangsu market is about 550-650 yuan / ton, Guangdong market is about 640-650 yuan / ton. Data show that last week, the capacity of domestic caustic soda maintenance units involved 2.26 million tons, accounting for about 5% of the national caustic soda capacity. The increase in maintenance continued to support market fundamentals.

The market performance of liquid chlorine in the upstream of caustic soda is fair this week, and the demand in the downstream is supported. Generally speaking, it will be mainly operated in the later stage or strongly. From the downstream of caustic soda, after the festival, the terminal demand of alumina, papermaking and other industries improved slightly, and the demand for caustic soda increased, which boosted the low rebound of caustic soda price. However, the price of caustic soda is mainly a wait-and-see attitude, and both sides enter the game.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 12th week of 2021 (3.22-3.26), there were 0 kinds of commodities rising, 3 kinds of commodities falling, and 2 kinds of commodities falling to 0. The main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 8.91%), PVC (- 2.79%) and hydrochloric acid (- 2.44%). The average rise and fall this week was – 2.83%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the caustic soda enterprises are not warm in shipment, and the downstream receiving situation is weak and stable, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The buyer and the seller play a price game, and it is expected that caustic soda will continue to fluctuate slightly in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

Isopropanol prices rose this week, according to commodity data monitoring. The average price of isopropanol in China was 8966.67 yuan / ton last Friday and 9066.67 yuan / ton this Friday. The price rose by 1.12% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: price trend comparison of acetone and isopropanol from January to March

Isopropanol prices have been rising steadily this week. Internationally, isopropanol in the United States continued to rise on March 23, while isopropanol market in Europe continued to rise. So far, Shandong isopropanol negotiation range is about 8800-9100 yuan / ton, Jiangsu isopropanol negotiation range is about 9150-9300 yuan / ton. The negotiation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is around 9100 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market price rose slightly, reaching 8600-8700 yuan / ton. The main reason is that the news has a great influence. As soon as the news of the Middle East plant shutdown came out, the information of the cargo holders was boosted, and the market offer rose as a whole. As soon as the acetone market recovered, the terminal inquiry increased and the market negotiation temperature increased. On the other hand, crude oil rebounded, which was supported by macro economy.

In terms of raw material propylene, on March 25, the market price of propylene in Shandong declined individually. The current market turnover has dropped to 7800 ~ 8400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7800 yuan / ton. U.S. propylene 18, 19, the external market dropped sharply, also has a certain impact on the domestic market. Propylene market is now no pressure inventory, part of the device is still in repair.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analyst of chemical branch of business society thinks: at present, foreign export orders are relatively stable. As the market price of acetone rose slightly and the cost was under pressure, the operation rate of isopropanol by acetone method was low; the price of propylene fell and stabilized, which supported isopropanol to a certain extent, and the price increased slightly. From the perspective of sorting out, traders mainly wait and see, while downstream enterprises are more cautious in buying. It is expected that the market price of isopropanol will be stable temporarily in the short term.

Shanghai lead fell sharply in the morning of the 25th, and the main contract of Shanghai lead dropped 1.88% by the end of the day. The spot market price followed the downward trend. The quotation range of lead ingot in domestic spot lead market was about 14950-15050 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15000 yuan / ton, down 125 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

Today, the spot market prices down, the lower reaches of the opportunity to bargain into the market, mainly small single transactions, the market as a whole partial wait-and-see. The downstream battery enterprises purchase on demand, and the transaction atmosphere is general. At present, the battery industry is still in the traditional off-season, and the demand for lead ingots is relatively stable. In the future, the demand for lead ingots is mainly weak without obvious large-scale downstream demand.

Relevant data:

ILZSG: 21800 tons of lead shortage in January

According to the data of the international lead research group, the global lead market was short of 21800 tons in January 2021, revised to oversupply of 11000 tons in December last year, and oversupply of 30500 tons in December. In January, the global output of lead ore was 366200 tons, the output of lead was 999400 tons, and the consumption of lead was 1021200 tons.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (March 24): 2123.33 yuan / ton

On March 24, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong increased by 6.66 yuan / ton, or 0.31%, compared with the quotation on March 22. The upstream liquid ammonia has risen sharply recently, with good cost support. Demand side: agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; downstream compound fertilizer, plastic plate plant start load increased slightly, most go with the market. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 80%, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. The start-up load of urea enterprises is increased and the supply side is sufficient. International aspect: India’s RCF import bid was opened, with a total bid volume of 1.926 million tons, and the bid price was not announced. The nitrogen fertilizer plant with an annual output of 1.7 million tons of urea in India has exploded, and the medium scalar quantity may be improved. Even in April, the bidding was invited again, and the market mentality improved.

In the future, it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly and rise mainly: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 2150 yuan / ton.