1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 18th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6720 yuan/ton, which is 0.60% higher than the reference average price of 6680 yuan/ton on February 12th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 18th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 7133 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 0.23% compared to the reference average of 7116 yuan/ton on February 12th.

2、 Market analysis

Market aspect

This week, the domestic price of phosphoric acid mainly fluctuated slightly. As of February 18th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-7000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6600-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6800-7500 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus has fallen this week. Some enterprises have resumed production of yellow phosphorus plants, leading to an increase in market supply. Downstream urgent replenishment, mainly low-priced procurement, and a downward shift in market transaction focus. Short term domestic yellow phosphorus prices are expected to remain weak.

Supply and demand side

The supply and demand balance in the phosphoric acid market this week. At present, there is no significant demand in the supply side of the phosphoric acid market, and the demand is relatively stable. Downstream purchases are made on demand. Expected to maintain a balance between supply and demand in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the recent trend of the phosphate market has slightly increased. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus is relatively weak, with insufficient cost support, but market demand is still acceptable and trading is stable. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will mainly stabilize and operate smoothly.

This week, the domestic epoxy propane market showed a slight upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 14th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.97% compared to the beginning of this week (7725 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: The supply of epichlorohydrin has been reduced, and the industry’s operating rate is around 75.7%. The 300000 tons/year HPPO plant of Lihua Yiwei Yuan has been temporarily suspended from sale since the 13th due to upstream and downstream influences, which is beneficial for the epoxy propane market.

Raw material side: The propylene market on the raw material side is fluctuating, and the cost side is still under high pressure. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 14th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6878.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.81% compared to the beginning of this month (6823.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: After the price of epoxy propane hit bottom and rebounded this week, the downstream demand atmosphere has slightly improved, and market trading has rebounded. As some factories gradually resume production, it is expected that downstream will provide some support to the market in the near future.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that while the supply of epoxy propane in the market is reduced, downstream demand has increased. In addition, due to the temporary suspension of sales by large enterprises, the price of epoxy propane in the market may show a slight upward trend under favorable supply and demand conditions, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, this week (2.10-14), the PVC spot market reversed its decline and prices rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Supply side: The PVC spot market atmosphere improved this week, reversing the previous decline. Driven by the futures market, the spot market slightly climbed this week. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand, and the PVC operating rate has remained stable this week. In the early stage, companies that had reduced their operating costs have taken actions to increase their costs, resulting in a slight increase in operating rates. This is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.

In terms of inventory, there has been a temporary increase in transaction volume in the market recently, and social inventory continues to decrease. However, considering the previously large basic inventory, the current spot supply side remains abundant.

On the cost side: The market price of calcium carbide remained stable this week, and the market entered a bottoming stage. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the weekly increase or decrease of calcium carbide was zero. The increase in downstream procurement volume after the holiday has a certain stimulating effect, and the upstream and downstream linkage has led to a rebound trend in PVC prices. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4850-5060 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that PVC supply is still sufficient in the short term, and the operating rate of manufacturers this week is generally higher than before the year. Although the inventory of enterprises continues to decrease, the process is slow. The rebound of short-term futures market is mainly due to the improvement of market sentiment, and the lack of sustained improvement momentum in PVC fundamentals. As downstream procurement returns to rationality, the positive support effect is not significant. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 13th, the styrene market experienced a slight decline. From a news perspective, crude oil inventories continue to rise, international oil prices have fallen, and the support on the raw material side is average. The on-site supply is relatively loose, and downstream demand needs to be improved. It is expected that the styrene market will be weakly consolidated in the short term.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke has risen significantly after the Spring Festival. As of February 10th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 2575.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 36.06% from 1892.50 yuan/ton on February 5th.

Cost aspect: Recently, crude oil prices have fallen, the United States has imposed tariffs, and Trump has requested OPEC to increase production to lower oil prices. In addition, the significant increase in US crude oil inventories has raised concerns in the market about crude oil demand. There is limited support for the petroleum coke market in terms of crude oil.

Supply side: After the Spring Festival, the shipment of locally refined petroleum coke has been good, with active transactions. The price of petroleum coke has continued to rise significantly, with an increase of 300-1200 yuan/ton. At present, the continuous status of petroleum coke storage in local refineries, coupled with plans to shut down or reduce production in some coking units, has reduced the supply of petroleum coke, which is beneficial to the petroleum coke market. Recently, imported petroleum coke has been gradually entering the port for storage, and the port inventory has increased. However, currently, traders are mainly executing preliminary orders, and imported sponge coke resources are tight, resulting in continuous price increases.

On the demand side: In February, the performance of domestic industrial silicon processing production is still relatively differentiated. The overall operating rate in Xinjiang is expected to remain around 6 floors, while the operating rate in Northwest China is gradually recovering at around 80%. Some small factories in Yunnan have a slower recovery in operating, and the overall operating rate is expected to be around 25-28. At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively light. Metal silicon and upstream and downstream factories are gradually resuming production, and the transmission between supply and demand is gradually recovering. The demand for petroleum coke market in the silicon industry still exists.

At present, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is gradually increasing to the pre holiday level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to accumulate, and downstream processing plants have not fully resumed work, mainly consuming pre holiday inventory; Trump said he will impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, and China’s aluminum exports will continue to decrease. At present, aluminum carbon enterprises are actively replenishing raw petroleum coke after the holiday, and demand support is favorable for the petroleum coke market.

The market for calcined coke continues to rise after the holiday, and due to the continuous increase in petroleum coke prices, the cost pressure of calcined coke has increased. Some companies have suspended quoting and accepting orders.

Market forecast: Currently, the inventory of petroleum coke in local refineries is limited, some refineries have suspended shipments, and imported petroleum coke is in short supply; Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises and negative electrode material raw material inventories of petroleum coke are low, and they are actively purchasing petroleum coke. It is expected that the petroleum coke market will continue to rise in the near future.

On the 11th, domestic phenol factories raised their listing prices one after another, and Sinopec’s phenol price rose to 7850 yuan/ton. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7750 yuan/ton on February 9th, and the market was quoted at 7850 yuan/ton on February 11th, with a two-day increase of 1.29% or 100 yuan/ton.

Supported by cost, the price of pure benzene has risen to a reference range of 7650-7750 yuan/ton. The expectation of large-scale equipment maintenance in the long term, coupled with tight supply in Shandong, has driven up prices. Supported by the upward trend of raw materials, the market has a positive attitude and increased participation in operations, resulting in an increase in phenol prices.

Supply expectations are tight. The second phase phenol ketone plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical is planned to shut down, and the operating rate of the phenol industry is only 80%. The enthusiasm for market inquiries has increased, and phenol enterprises have raised their listing prices. Sinopec’s phenol price has been implemented at 7850 yuan/ton.

On February 11th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country were as follows:

Region/ Quotation on February 11th/ Daily fluctuations

East China region/ 7800./ 50

Shandong region/ 7850./ 80

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 7850./ 100

South China region/ 7900./ 100

The downstream bisphenol A market remains stable with little market volatility. The upward trend of raw materials phenol and acetone has put pressure on the spot market of bisphenol A, resulting in less active shipping intentions and a decline in transactions. Other downstream products are gradually resuming production, and there is a stable replenishment of essential needs.

From the perspective of Shengyi Society, there is not much pressure on the short-term market supply side, and market prices may maintain a slight upward trend under the current upward trend. The terminal pays attention to downstream procurement strength and market transaction situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 10th, 85% formic acid in China was priced at 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the year.

From an upstream perspective, with the gradual recovery of logistics after the Spring Festival, freight rates in various regions will further decline and tend towards normal levels; At the same time, considering the demand for inventory and replenishment in some traditional downstream areas after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, it will further support the methanol market in the mainland.

On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, due to weak downstream market demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories did not rebound quickly. Most factories are still executing preliminary orders and are not in a hurry to take on new orders. The factory’s shipment situation is average. At the same time, downstream distributors and grassroots growers are still in a wait-and-see attitude, and the sales atmosphere for formic acid is average.

The formic acid data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that the formic acid market is basically stable, and upstream products provide good support for the temporary storage of formic acid costs. The downstream pesticide industry has relatively stable demand for formic acid, and the sales situation is average.

After the Spring Festival, the market price of epichlorohydrin continued to rise. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 7th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9050 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56% compared to the beginning of this month.

Price influencing factors:

On the raw material side, the prices of propylene and glycerol have increased, leading to a rise in costs and providing strong support for the price of epichlorohydrin, resulting in a continuous increase in epichlorohydrin prices. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 7th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6975.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.24% compared to the beginning of this month (6823.25 yuan/ton).

Supply side: During the Spring Festival, the market supply has decreased slightly. Some manufacturers, such as those in Fujian, Hubei, and Hebei regions, have installed devices to reduce production load or shut down, with a operating rate of about 37% during this period.

Downstream demand side: After the holiday, most of the downstream epoxy resin market has not yet resumed production, and some units have been shut down for maintenance or are in a reduced load state. Overall, there is a cold demand for epichlorohydrin, making it difficult to form favorable support. The price remains relatively stable, with a focus on stocking up for essential needs. It is expected to gradually resume normal operation next week, with an increase in demand for epichlorohydrin.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the high prices of raw materials support the demand for epichlorohydrin. As downstream operations gradually return to normal after the holiday ends, there will be an increase in demand for epichlorohydrin. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin may rise in the near future, with a range of around 100-200 yuan. More attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 31st, the price of isooctanol was 7800 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.63% compared to the price of 7600 yuan/ton on January 1st at the beginning of the month. The construction of new equipment and the high level of equipment construction in isooctanol enterprises have led to sufficient supply of isooctanol. With stocking before the Spring Festival, the demand for isooctanol has rebounded, resulting in a double increase in supply and demand. In January, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose. After the holiday, the demand for isooctanol replenishment briefly rebounded.

Double increase in supply and demand of isooctanol in January

Isooctanol enterprises are operating at a high level, coupled with the continuous production of new octanol capacity, resulting in an increase in the supply of isooctanol. Before the Spring Festival, downstream manufacturers replenished their inventory, leading to an increase in demand for isooctanol and a greater driving force for its price increase.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and rise in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 31st, the DOP price was 8576.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 4.25% compared to the DOP price of 8226.25 yuan/ton on January 1st at the beginning of the month. The rise in raw material prices has led to an increase in the cost of plasticizer DOP. Stocking up before the Spring Festival has led to an increase in demand for plasticizers. Supported by rising costs and demand, there is a significant driving force for the increase in plasticizers. After the holiday, the demand for plasticizers briefly rebounded due to restocking.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, in the future, the high equipment production of isooctanol enterprises, coupled with the production of new equipment, will alleviate the shortage of isooctanol supply and ensure sufficient supply of isooctanol; After the Spring Festival, the replenishment of stocks has ended, and the expected demand for isooctanol has weakened. The strong supply and weak demand of isooctanol are expected to lead to a weak and stable price trend in the future market.

Market Review of Maleic Anhydride in 2024

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of maleic anhydride in China will fluctuate downward in 2024, with an average market price of 7860 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 6520 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a year-on-year decline of 17.05%. The highest point of the year occurred on January 2nd at 7890 yuan/ton, and the lowest point of the year occurred on November 18th at 6260 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 21.55%. The domestic maleic anhydride market will experience a significant decline in 2024.

According to the monthly K-bar chart data of the maleic anhydride market from Shengyi Society in 2024, the market experienced more fluctuations than gains, with 4 months of upward movement and 8 months of downward movement. The highest increase was in May, up 4.45%, and the highest decrease was in January, down 8.4%.

There will be two significant upward trends for maleic anhydride in 2024: temporary parking by Wanhua in the second half of May, coupled with maintenance by Dafeng Jiangning, resulting in a decrease in the supply of maleic anhydride spot goods, limited factory shipments, limited market circulation, and continuous price increases; In mid December, the Wanhua maleic anhydride production plant in Yantai unexpectedly shut down, resulting in a significant decline in the supply of liquid anhydride in the market. At the beginning of the week, the price of the main maleic anhydride factory increased by 1000 yuan/ton, and dealer quotes followed suit. However, after the resumption of production, the overall market situation of maleic anhydride is in a downward trend, mainly due to the continuous increase in domestic maleic anhydride market supply and the weak demand for unsaturated resins in the downstream market.

Market forecast for maleic anhydride in 2024

Cost aspect:

Raw material n-butane: In 2024, the n-butane market fluctuated widely, with a range of 5050-5400 yuan/ton. The n-butane market is mainly affected by significant fluctuations in the international crude oil market, coupled with the domestic naphtha market rising first and then falling, which provides limited cost support for the n-butane market.

Supply side: The production capacity of maleic anhydride in 2024 is 3.546 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 94.19%., The n-butane oxidation method has gradually replaced the benzene oxidation method as the main development trend. 2025 is a year of concentrated release of new production capacity for maleic anhydride, with an expected increase in capacity of over 2.33 million tons. The total effective production capacity of butane method will exceed 5 million tons per year.

Demand side: Maleic anhydride is commonly used in the production of unsaturated polyester resins (UPR), BDO (1,4-butanediol), curing agents, organic acids (including succinic acid, tartaric acid, malic acid, etc.), water treatment agents, and other products.

The unsaturated resin industry is still one of the largest demand areas for maleic anhydride, accounting for nearly 50%. In 2024, the situation of oversupply of UPR will continue, and most production enterprises will maintain a low operating state. The unsaturated resin market in 2024 will mainly fluctuate within a certain range. The main consumption areas of domestic UPR in 2024 are fiberglass composite materials, artificial stone, coatings, handicrafts, buttons, coatings, etc. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November, the investment in real estate development in China decreased by 10.4% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.1% compared to the period from January to October. The cumulative area of newly started housing construction from January to November decreased by 23.0% year-on-year, and the decline expanded by 0.4% month on month; The completed area decreased by 26.2% year-on-year, and the decline continued to expand by 2.3%. The sales area of commercial housing from January to November decreased by 14.3% year-on-year, narrowing by 1.5% compared to January to October. Real estate investment continues to decline significantly, with a severe shortage of new construction projects. The demand for glass in the real estate sector continues to decline significantly, and the demand for unsaturated resin industry in traditional terminal industries has limited growth. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 23.904 million and 20.257 million respectively, an increase of 4.4% and 4.7% year-on-year; The production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 10.727 million and 9.594 million respectively, an increase of 37% and 41.2% year-on-year. This year, the average penetration rate of new energy vehicle production reached 44.9%, an increase of 10 percentage points compared to last year. With the continuous expansion of the new energy vehicle market, the demand for unsaturated resins in the automotive industry has increased.

In 2024, the domestic BDO market price experienced narrow fluctuations in the first half of the year and a rebound after a decline in the second half. The average price at the beginning of the year was 9535 yuan/ton, and the average BDO price at the end of the year was 8471 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.16%. Overall, the domestic BDO trend showed weak fluctuations in the first half of the year, followed by a rebound after a decline in the second half. The overall price center of gravity and fluctuation range have both shifted downward, mainly due to fierce market competition under industry overcapacity pressure, with prices falling below the average cost line. The overall price trend is weak, and the volatility has decreased compared to previous years. The price difference between high and low ends is only 2200 yuan/ton, and the fluctuation range has further narrowed. In recent years, the BDO capacity in Chinese Mainland has shown a sustained and rapid growth trend. Looking back at the past, the initial BDO production capacity was only 76000 tons per year. However, after years of development and project construction, the existing BDO production capacity will be 4.821 million tons per year by 2024, and it is expected to reach 9 million tons per year by 2027, with an astonishing increase. The newly added production capacity has significantly exceeded the average level of the previous three years. This has greatly improved the market supply capacity, but also brought potential pressure of overcapacity to the market.

Market forecast: Currently, China’s real estate investment continues to decline significantly, and there is a serious shortage of new construction projects. The demand from traditional terminal industries has limited impact on the unsaturated resin industry; The implementation of the policy of scrapping and replacement in 2024 has played a significant role in boosting the automotive market. It is expected that the subsidy policy for the automotive market will continue to be implemented in 2025, which will continue to boost the automotive market and increase the demand for unsaturated resins in the automotive industry. In recent years, BDO, as an important basic chemical raw material for industries such as biodegradable materials, new energy vehicles, and thermoplastic elastomers, is expected to usher in new growth points in the industry. At present, the domestic maleic anhydride market is in a state of oversupply. In 2025, there will still be new production capacity for maleic anhydride in China. In addition, the maleic anhydride market is still in a loss making state. However, downstream demand for maleic anhydride is limited, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the market will continue to exist in 2025. It is expected that the domestic maleic anhydride market will mainly fluctuate widely in 2025.