In 2024, the domestic nylon filament market operated weakly throughout the year, with prices fluctuating with the cost side, with fluctuations seen in both directions, with less increase and more decrease, resulting in a broad decline in overall prices.

The price has experienced a wide decline throughout the year

The year-end price of nylon DTY was 17080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1820 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, with an annual decline of 9.63%. The year-end price of nylon POY was 14650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1775 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, with an annual decline of 10.81%. The year-end price of nylon FDY was 17925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1725 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, with an annual decline of 8.78%.

The average price of nylon DTY70D/24F in 2024 is 18592.13 yuan/ton, and the average price in 2023 is 19131.45 yuan/ton, with an annual average price decline of 2.82%. The annual high appeared in early June, with a price of 19600 yuan/ton; The lowest point of the year occurred at the end of December, with a price of 17080 yuan/ton.

Price Trend of Nylon Silk in 2024

1. At the beginning of the year, the market price of raw materials surged significantly, and the downstream market entered the replenishment stage before the Spring Festival. Both the cost and demand sides had positive support, and the price of nylon filament market was cautiously upward.

2. In the second quarter, the prices of raw materials such as caprolactam and PA6 chips continued to rise, coupled with the arrival of the “Silver IV” project. The production of downstream equipment in the domestic market remained at a high level, with strong demand and decent foreign trade business. Supported by the dual benefits, the prices of nylon filament in the market skyrocketed.

3. In the second half of the year, the market prices of caprolactam and PA6 chips fell significantly, with weak cost support, and the market prices of nylon filament continued to decline; In early December, driven by the rise in costs, there was a slight increase, but downstream factories continued to accumulate finished product inventory, which dragged down the market trend on the demand side. At the end of the year, the price of nylon filament market fell weakly.

The highest price of nylon DTY in the year was in early June, with a price of 19600 yuan/ton; At the end of December, the lowest price of the year was 17080 yuan/ton; The annual decline of nylon DTY market is 9.63%, with a price drop of 1820 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year; The annual decline in the nylon POY market is 10.81%, with a price drop of 1775 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year; The annual decline of nylon FDY market is 8.78%, with a price drop of 1725 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year.

Reasons for the significant decline in nylon yarn prices in 2024

The raw material caprolactam has experienced a significant decline

From the price fluctuation chart of the nylon industry chain, it can be seen that the cost has significantly decreased. The upstream raw material for nylon filament is caprolactam, and the price has been strongly correlated with the price of caprolactam for a long time. The upstream raw material caprolactam to some extent determines the price trend of the nylon filament market. In 2024, both prices will experience a weak and wide decline.

In 2024, the market will operate weakly throughout the year, with prices showing a significant downward trend overall. The price of caprolactam at the beginning of the year was 13842 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year it was 10903 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2939 yuan/ton or 21.23%.

The contradiction between supply and demand of nylon yarn intensifies in 2024

In 2024, most of the nylon filament market facilities will maintain high load operation and overcapacity.

In recent years, the production of nylon filament has remained stable and steadily increasing. In 2023, China’s nylon production reached 4.44 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.29%; The production of nylon filament in 2024 is 4.67 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.18%. In the past three years, the annual production of nylon filament in China has exceeded 4 million tons, accounting for about one-third of the global total production.

Demand for nylon filament decreases in 2024

The domestic consumption of nylon in 2024 is 3.92 million tons, a decrease of 3.25% compared to last year.

1. The demand in the first half of the year is better than that in the second half.

2. In the early stage of the Spring Festival, there was good demand in the terminal market, and downstream manufacturers were still proactive in stocking up before the holiday. Some nylon filament manufacturers had orders as high as April, and the demand side support was strong.

3. In the second quarter, downstream manufacturers maintained a high machine operating rate and had strong demand for raw materials. Although there have been no exceptionally popular models of nylon filament products in the market since the “Silver IV” event, the domestic market is mainly focused on rigid procurement, but foreign trade business has improved and overall market demand is strong.

4. With the end of the May Day holiday, the market is gradually transitioning to the off-season of demand, and downstream yarn factories are holding onto rigid demand orders. Despite the traditional peak season of “golden September and silver October”, the demand side has not shown significant improvement until the end of the year when downstream factories gradually enter the stage of order closure, and demand weakens again.

Prominent supply-demand contradiction

From the graph, it can be seen that in 2024, domestic nylon production will increase, consumption will decrease, and the production to sales ratio will increase. In recent years, the demand for nylon in China has maintained a relatively steady growth trend, with production significantly exceeding consumption. The apparent domestic consumption of nylon in 2024 is 3.92 million tons, a decrease of 3.25% compared to last year. One increase and one decrease have exacerbated the supply-demand contradiction, and overcapacity has become more apparent.

Factors influencing the nylon market in 2025

The supply-demand contradiction is difficult to change: In 2024, the supply of domestic nylon filament market will continue to exceed demand, and the production consumption gap will reach 750000 tons. The production capacity will continue to increase. Therefore, it is expected that the overall performance of the nylon filament market supply side will be prosperous in 2025. The domestic market demand is limited and seasonal, making it difficult to make significant improvements. In addition, there is a possibility of a continuous decrease in demand in the foreign market. Therefore, it is expected that the downstream demand for nylon filament market will decrease by 2025. The supply-demand contradiction will continue in 2025, and the situation is difficult to change in the short term.

The focus of raw materials will rise: the price of caprolactam, an upstream raw material for nylon, will drop by 21.23% annually in 2024, reaching a historical low. At the end of 2024, the price will be 10903 yuan/ton, with room for further increase. There are still many new production plans for the caprolactam market in 2025, among which the 600000 ton/year caprolactam new plant in Guangxi is expected to be completed and put into operation by 2025. In addition, there are still 300000 ton/year caprolactam plant production plans in Shandong, so the expected supply of caprolactam in the market is gradually increasing. The increase in production capacity and output has made it difficult for prices to rise to a certain extent. It is expected that caprolactam will steadily increase in 2025, and the annual average price will rise year-on-year. This will provide positive support for the price of nylon.

Prediction of Nylon Price Trend in 2025

The price of nylon filament in 2024 is at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and there is a possibility of upward recovery in the low price of nylon filament in 2025, but the market will still be mainly weak. Looking ahead to 2025, overall, the market for raw material caprolactam may have a higher focus, supported by favorable cost factors in the nylon filament market; There is an expectation of an increase in market supply, coupled with no obvious improvement in downstream market demand, making the supply-demand contradiction difficult to resolve.

Therefore, it is expected that the nylon filament market will continue to be weak in 2025, and prices will fluctuate with the rise and fall of raw materials. The overall market price will rise, with an expected increase of around 500-800 yuan/ton.

Review of Ethylene Glycol Market in 2024

The narrow range oscillation price of ethylene glycol will rise in 2024

The price of ethylene glycol will rise in 2024. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4688.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.84% compared to the average price of 4307.5 yuan/ton on January 1st. The spot market for ethylene glycol for the whole year of 2024 operates within the range of 4300-4800 yuan/ton, with an annual amplitude of 10.7%. Strong annual performance mainly relies on factors such as reduced overseas supply and lower port inventory.

Annual price comparison shows that the price of ethylene glycol has relatively increased compared to the low operating range in 2023, with the annual market average price rising from 4153 yuan/ton to 4578 yuan/ton; The annual price center of gravity has shifted upward. From the annual amplitude data, it can be seen that the annual price fluctuations in 2023 and 2024 have significantly narrowed compared to the previous period. The annual price operation of ethylene glycol in 2024 is characterized by narrow fluctuations and price increases.

The main logic of ethylene glycol price fluctuation trading in 2024

In 2024, ethylene glycol can be roughly divided into seven market bands, among which stage one (2023.12-2024.3) laid the main tone for the rise of the center of gravity of ethylene glycol prices. The main influencing factors in each stage are as follows:

Stage 1: The Red Sea attack at the beginning of the year affected the Middle East’s supply of goods and the maintenance of Saudi facilities, leading to a reduction in imports and an expected strengthening, which pushed up the price center of ethylene glycol;

Stage 2: Hidden inventory is high, port shipments are weak, and ethylene glycol prices continue to weaken in March and April;

Stage 3: The effect of reducing implicit inventory and imports begins to manifest in explicit inventory, coupled with the maintenance of domestic facilities, leading to a gradual strengthening of ethylene glycol prices;

Stage 4: After the price rises, domestic supply rebounds, while domestic demand shows downstream price for volume exchange. Downstream polyester prices decline, and the game between upstream and downstream intensifies. Downstream tolerance for high priced ethylene glycol weakens, leading to a sharp drop in ethylene glycol prices in September;

Stage 5: Macro sentiment during the National Day holiday, with ethylene glycol experiencing a significant rebound once again;

Stage 6: After the holiday, the sentiment weakened and rebounded again, but the decline was limited due to the impact of low inventory levels;

Stage 7: The clearance of port inventory is accelerating, and the expectation of weak imports is strengthening. The port inventory of ethylene glycol is gradually being cleared to a multi-year low, and the price of ethylene glycol is fluctuating upwards at the end of the year.

Basic supply and demand of ethylene glycol in 2024

Supply side: Domestic new production increase can be limited, while new production increase can be significant

The new production capacity of ethylene glycol in 2024 is not much. Excluding the 600000 tons of Xinjiang Zhongkun and 400000 tons of Shanxi Yuneng Group that were put into operation at the end of 2013, the new production capacity in 2024 will only be 300000 tons of ethylene glycol new production capacity of ChemChina. The total production capacity of ethylene glycol in 2024 is about 2860 tons, with a growth rate of only 0.3%.

The peak period for the expansion of domestic ethylene glycol production capacity is from 2020 to 2023, during which the domestic production capacity will increase rapidly by 4-5 million tons per year. The annual production capacity has increased from around 10.7 million tons in 2019 to around 28.5 million tons in 2023.

In 2024, there will be a significant increase in the absolute value of domestic ethylene glycol production, with a production increment of around 2.7 million tons. The ethylene glycol production in 2024 will be close to 19.5 million tons, an increase of 16.1% compared to around 16.8 million tons in 2023. During the peak period of capacity expansion (2020-2023), the average domestic production increment over the past four years is 2.925 million tons, and the production increment in 2024 will be 2.7 million tons, still in the peak period of production increment. Among them, the output growth rate of coal to ethylene glycol is greater than that of non coal to ethylene glycol.

Supply side: Domestic operating rate increases

There may not be much new production of ethylene glycol in 2024, but there will be a significant increase in production. The specific manifestation is that the growth rate of ethylene glycol production capacity tends to zero in 2024, while the growth rate of production remains relatively high. The main reason for this difference is the increase in the utilization rate of ethylene glycol production capacity in 2024, which is 68%, an increase of nearly 8% compared to 2023.

Supply side: Decreased overseas import volume

The import volume of ethylene glycol has been declining for five consecutive years. The total import volume of ethylene glycol in 2024 is about 6.55 million tons, a decrease of nearly 600000 tons compared to the same period last year, and a decrease of 4 million tons from the high point of 10.55 million tons in 2020. In 2024, the domestic dependence on ethylene glycol imports will continue to decline to around 25%, the lowest level in over a decade. The dependence on ethylene glycol imports has been declining from 73% in 2012. On the one hand, due to the squeezing of domestic production capacity, integrated oil production and some self owned coal mining enterprises have international competitive advantages in cost; On the other hand, it is also due to low prices, weak profits, frequent maintenance and unexpected failures of overseas facilities, as well as unstable situations and poor sea transportation.

From the perspective of import sources, the proportion of imports from countries such as the Middle East, the United States, and Canada has increased. The Middle East and North American sources of goods have cost advantages in raw materials, and high cost equipment in Asia’s near ocean regions is gradually being squeezed out of the Chinese market.

Supply side: The total supply of ethylene glycol will increase in 2024

In 2024, domestic production of ethylene glycol will increase, imports will decrease, and the total supply will exceed 26 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons compared to 2023.

Supply side forecast for 2025: high supply elasticity with added supply pressure

It is expected that the supply elasticity of ethylene glycol will be relatively high in 2025, and there will be new supply pressure. One of the main criteria is the increase in production capacity, which is an increase compared to 2024. In 2025, the plan is to add 1.6 million tons of ethylene glycol to production. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the total domestic production capacity of ethylene glycol will reach 30.23 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 6%.

In addition, the possibility of a rebound in overseas imports is one of the important factors contributing to supply elasticity. Affected by uncontrollable factors, imports from the Middle East and North America will decrease in 2024. For example, the transportation of ethylene glycol in the Middle East has become difficult due to the Red Sea attack, and Saudi Arabia has indeed reduced production due to economic reasons; In North America, exports to Asia have decreased due to the blockage of the Panama Canal and difficulties in local construction. Excluding the pressure of domestic production capacity on import demand, there is still potential for a rebound in imported goods from the Middle East and North America, which have cost advantages.

Demand side: The total demand for ethylene glycol will increase in 2024

The total demand for ethylene glycol is increasing year by year. The main downstream is polyester, accounting for over 90%. In 2024, polyester consumption of ethylene glycol was 24.9 million tons, an increase of 2.6 million tons compared to last year; Other fields (such as antifreeze) consume 1.7 million tons of ethylene glycol, totaling 26.6 million tons, with a demand growth rate of 12%

Overview of Major Downstream Polyester Fundamentals

In 2024, the production capacity and output of polyester, the main downstream product of ethylene glycol, will double increase, and the operating rate will remain high. The polyester production in 2024 is about 74.5 million tons, an increase of 7.9 million tons compared to 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.8%; In 2024, the total polyester production capacity will reach 85.4 million tons, with an additional 5.55 million tons of production capacity (excluding obsolete capacity), and a capacity growth rate of about 7%. The annual average operating rate of the national polyester industry in 2024 is around 86%, which is at a relatively high level in recent years.

Polyester exports will continue to grow in 2024, but the growth rate will slow down. In 2024, the import volume of polyester is expected to be 930000 tons, the export volume is expected to be 12.36 million tons, and the net export volume is expected to be 11.43 million tons, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year, with exports accounting for 15% of polyester production. In detail, among the categories of polyester export products, the growth rate of bottle flakes is relatively high, short fibers are neutral, and the export of long fibers has significantly slowed down. Among them, the cumulative export volume growth rate of bottle flakes and short fibers in 2024 exceeds 20%, maintaining a good growth momentum, while the export volume of polyester filament is expected to decline by 4.5% year-on-year.

Demand side: Ethylene glycol demand will continue to grow in 2025

The demand for ethylene glycol will continue to grow in 2025. In 2024, a total of 5.55 million tons of new polyester production capacity will be added (excluding obsolete production capacity). In 2025, there will still be new production capacity entering the polyester industry, with a production plan of 5.14 million tons. It is expected that the polyester production capacity will reach around 90.5 million tons by the end of 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 6%.

From the perspective of terminal demand, the domestic demand for textiles will be weak in 2024, with an increase in export quantity but a lower amount, mainly due to changes in consumption power caused by the shift in export destinations. In 2024, the market share of the European Union and ASEAN will gradually increase, while the export share of the United States will decrease. The trend of increasing quantity and decreasing price may continue with the arrival of the new US government in 2025, and it is expected that the quantity of textiles will maintain relative growth in 2025, but the magnitude will be limited.

Forecast of Ethylene Glycol Market in 2025

In 2025, the price of ethylene glycol will still be dominated by supply and demand. The main market game space lies in domestic supply variables and import quantity variables. Although the dependence on imports has significantly decreased and the influence of overseas factors on prices has decreased, based on the increase in domestic supply, the ethylene glycol market will play a game around the changes in production caused by port inventory and domestic manufacturer profits. The probability of a unilateral market trend caused by a single element decreases, and the probability of maintaining a narrow range oscillation since 2023 is higher. Overall, in 2025, the ethylene glycol supply side will have stronger new production capacity than in 2014, and there is room for improvement in operating rates after profit recovery. The expected growth rate of downstream polyester demand is expected to slow down, and there is great uncertainty in terminal demand. In 2025, the focus will be on centralized maintenance, the stage of domestic production with supply-demand mismatch, and the possibility of import recovery, which will bring market pressure due to the increase in port inventory.

It is expected that by 2025, the price of ethylene glycol will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range, with the overall price center slightly shifting upwards, and the price range being between 4600-5000 yuan/ton.

Introduction: Methanol is a colorless and clear liquid, and its vapor can form an explosive mixture with air, producing blue fire when burned. Methanol can be miscible with organic solvents such as water, ethanol, benzene, and ketones. Its vapor forms an explosive mixture with air, which can ignite and explode when exposed to open flames or high heat energy. The methanol model monitored by Business Society is of superior quality.

Firstly, let’s review the trend of the methanol market in 2024. The domestic methanol market fluctuated widely in 2024, with the lowest point occurring in early September at a price of 2338 yuan/ton and the highest point occurring in late May at a price of 3020 yuan/ton. The annual increase was 12.07%, with a maximum amplitude of 29.17% and an average price of 2567.67 yuan/ton.

In the first stage (January May), the price of methanol in the mainland market showed a fluctuating upward trend

In the first quarter, the prices in the mainland market showed a range of fluctuations. After the New Year’s Day holiday, the prices in the mainland market have fallen to a relatively low level, which has stimulated downstream markets to restock to some extent. Manufacturers in the main production areas are actively shipping, but overall downstream demand is limited to follow up, and cautious sentiment among operators is gradually rising. In addition, the mainland is once again experiencing rainy and snowy weather, with some highways closed and resource circulation hindered. As a result, downstream operators are stocking up in advance, and the market transaction atmosphere has improved. After mid March, with the implementation of the spring inspection plan and the temporary shutdown of some facilities, the supply of methanol in the field has been reduced. In addition, due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, oil prices have risen, driving up the methanol futures market and boosting market atmosphere. At the same time, some facilities in mainland China have been undergoing maintenance, and factory and port inventories have remained low. With the support of low inventories, the prices of methanol in the mainland and port markets have risen synchronously, especially during the period from late April to mid May, when the spot market prices of methanol increased the most significantly.

In the second stage (mid May to October), the methanol market price fluctuated after falling from a high level

With the sustained high price of methanol in the early stage, downstream industry profits have been severely compressed. Under cost pressure, MTO units in Northwest, East China, Shandong and other regions have been undergoing maintenance and shutdown since mid May, resulting in a significant reduction in methanol demand. At the same time, traditional demand has gradually entered the off-season, and the overall demand side has shown weak performance, which has had a significant negative impact on the market. Weak demand has constrained the high prices of methanol in the mainland market. After entering the third quarter, the methanol market prices have been continuously falling, constrained by downstream demand. The methanol period continues to operate weakly, which to some extent undermines the mentality of industry players. Downstream factories maintain high levels of raw material inventory, and market prices continue to fall. Some manufacturers have lowered their quotes due to poor shipments. Until the National Day holiday, with the introduction of favorable domestic macro policies and the strong rise in international crude oil prices, the main contract futures price of methanol opened with a strong rise. However, due to the rapid increase in market prices and the obvious resistance of downstream suppliers to high priced sources, the rise was short-lived under the influence of supply and demand contradictions. After the positive boost was digested, the spot market price of methanol quickly fell back.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the domestic methanol market prices saw a wide upward trend, supported by the release of macroeconomic favorable conditions, a decrease in the arrival of imported ships and cargo, and relatively low supply pressure in the mainland market. Overall, the market prices showed a fluctuating upward trend. After returning from the National Day holiday, the main contract futures price of methanol saw a significant increase due to the rise in crude oil prices and macroeconomic incentives. However, with the price increase, downstream industry profits were compressed, and the market trading atmosphere quickly cooled down. After November, due to the impact of natural gas restrictions on facilities in some international regions, it is expected that imported ship inventories will be reduced to some extent. This has boosted the continuous strong fluctuations in the main methanol futures market. In addition, some olefin factories in the northwest region continue to export, and the shipment of various manufacturers in the main production areas is relatively smooth. With the support of low supply pressure, market quotations have risen, and the overall price of methanol market is mainly on the rise.

In terms of downstream production: MTO has been put into operation. In 2024, Baofeng Phase I with a capacity of 1 million tons per year has already been put into operation. In 2025, Baofeng Phase II and III, as well as the olefin plant supporting Shandong Lianhong Gerun, will be put into operation, with a total capacity of 2.37 million tons per year. In 2026, middling coal Yulin Phase II, Shenhua Baotou, Guangxi Huayi and other methanol supporting downstream integrated units, Inner Mongolia Rongxin olefin unit, a total of 4.2 million tons/year. From the observation of downstream production of non olefins, from 2024 to 2025, BDO、 The further expansion of downstream production capacity such as acetic acid and dimethyl carbonate has significantly boosted the demand for methanol. It is expected that the demand for methanol will increase by 7.5 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7%. The apparent consumption of methanol in China will reach 112.68 million tons in 2025.

In the future, with the frequent release of various national economic policies, the global economic development trend is expected to maintain stable growth in 2025. Looking back at the fundamentals of methanol, there are still plans to add new production capacity both domestically and internationally in 2025. If the production is scheduled, the overall supply in the mainland market may remain abundant, and it is expected that the import volume will also maintain a high level in 2025. At the same time, traditional downstream products of methanol also have plans to add new production capacity. However, considering the downturn in the real estate industry in recent years and the continued weak demand in the terminal market, whether the new production capacity can be put into operation as scheduled still needs to be closely monitored in the later stage. Overall, it is expected that the price of methanol in the mainland market will be higher in 2025 than in 2024, but in the later stage, attention needs to be paid to macro aspects, coal prices, total import and export of methanol, the production of new market capacity, and the recovery of downstream demand at the terminal.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of January 14th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China was 7766.67 yuan/ton. Recently, the cyclohexane market has been operating steadily, with no significant price fluctuations. Currently, the mainstream market price remains at 7800 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: The enthusiasm for upstream pure benzene procurement is not high, and prices are under pressure to decline. In the short term, the rise in the pure benzene market is not significant, and there is currently a situation of buying stocks at low prices. It is expected to maintain the current trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is insufficient upstream price support and weak downstream demand, and it is expected to maintain the current trend in the short term.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 13th, the DOP price was 8401.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.32% compared to the DOP price of 8513.75 yuan/ton on January 6th. The profit margin of plasticizer DOP is high, plasticizer enterprises are actively operating, downstream plasticizer enterprises have high operating rates, and plasticizer supply is sufficient. After the New Year’s Day holiday, the replenishment of inventory has ended, and the demand for plasticizers has slightly decreased. The price of raw material isooctanol has fallen, and the cost of plasticizers has decreased.

The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 13th, the price of isooctanol was 7633.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.78% compared to the price of 7933.33 yuan/ton on January 6th. The construction of new equipment has been stable. This week, the equipment of isooctanol enterprises started at a high level, and the supply of isooctanol increased. After the New Year’s Day holiday, the replenishment of inventory ended, and the demand for isooctanol decreased. The increase in isooctanol supply and demand decreased, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased; In terms of demand, the replenishment of inventory has ended and the demand for plasticizers has decreased; On the supply side, the construction of new equipment for plasticizers has led to high profits for plasticizer companies, active production by plasticizer companies, and an oversupply of plasticizers. For the future market, stocking up during the Spring Festival is expected to increase the demand for raw materials such as isooctanol and plasticizers, and the cost support for plasticizers still exists; Supply increases and demand decreases, and it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will consolidate strongly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has recently fallen sharply and slightly increased, with a decrease of 300 yuan/ton on Monday and an increase of 50 yuan/ton on Wednesday. As of this Friday, the spot price of aniline in East China is 9050-9100 yuan/ton, with an acceptance price of 9150 yuan/ton. It is reported that the aniline market has been experiencing sluggish sales recently, with significant inventory pressure. After price reductions, purchasing power has rebounded, and cost support is relatively strong. It is expected that the aniline market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

In 2024, the domestic liquid ammonia market experienced weak supply and demand, with prices fluctuating downward overall. According to monitoring by Shengyi Society, as of December 31, the annual decline in liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 28.98%.

Let’s take a closer look at the annual trend of liquid ammonia:

From January to early February, the price of liquid ammonia fell sharply, reaching a high of 3600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, which was the highest point of the year. The market has undergone a transition from tight supply to loose supply. After experiencing the impact of reduced production caused by environmental inspections at the end of 2023, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia gradually recovered. In January, collective resumption of work and high operating rates led to a large-scale surplus of ammonia supply in the market. Overlay, the conversion of urea to liquid ammonia in co production enterprises has led to a short-term surge in ammonia production. Due to a decrease in downstream procurement, the amount of ammonia released by large factories has increased. Supply pressure continues to rise, manufacturers are lowering prices and shipping, and the market is generally falling. At this stage, the ammonia market fell by over a thousand yuan, which was also the largest decline of the year.

From mid February to mid May, the market entered a period of repeated oscillation, and in mid February, the price of ammonia rebounded, mainly due to the tight supply performance in the main northern production areas. Part of the equipment in the northern region is undergoing maintenance, and the rainy and snowy weather in some areas is affecting supply, resulting in a tight market supply in the short term. There is a common phenomenon of vehicles queuing up for goods in production enterprises. Returning after the holiday, downstream procurement has also recovered, and the combination of the two has led to a significant rebound in the ammonia market. In April, the ammonia market experienced a pullback due to the resumption of production and poor exports. Entering May, downstream demand in the market improved, and the delayed peak season for agricultural demand brought about a rebound in the ammonia market.

In June and July, the market was mainly volatile and downward, mainly due to high inventory pressure on enterprises. In order to alleviate the pressure, factory prices continued to be lowered. On the one hand, as supply increases, manufacturers’ shipments slow down and inventory pressure rises. On the other hand, the large import volume and low-priced foreign sources have impacted the domestic market. Supply is in an oversupply situation. Due to the lack of support from downstream industries such as urea and compound fertilizers, all products have experienced a decline.

From August to the fourth quarter, the ammonia market continued to fluctuate within a range, with the amplitude mainly narrowing. The approximate range is between 2500-2800 yuan per unit. The market has experienced a sluggish market during the peak season of “Golden September and Silver October”. The price did not fluctuate significantly and remained in a stable market under the pull of supply and demand. Except for partial equipment maintenance, there is not much news in the market that has a significant impact on the market. The volatile market continued until the end of the year.

Outlook for 2025

Supply side: As we enter 2025, the oversupply of liquid ammonia may become even more severe. More than 5 million tons of new facilities are planned to be put into operation in China in the next year. Considering the current weak ammonia market situation and the issue of production willingness, some facilities may be delayed in production, but the market still faces the risk of oversupply.

Demand side: The growth point of downstream demand for synthetic ammonia in the future will still mainly focus on the agricultural demand port, with moderate growth in industrial demand as the main driver. The main demand growth point is still in the urea field. In addition, there will also be some growth potential in industrial fields such as soda ash, acrylonitrile, and caprolactam. However, there may be insufficient growth in demand for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate. Overall, the demand for liquid ammonia will continue to increase in 2025, but the growth rate may slow down.

Overall, it is expected that the ammonia market will face a relatively severe environment in 2025, with the crisis of oversupply not yet resolved, prices may be constrained by oversupply, and corporate profits will also face challenges. The expected price will be lower than the base price in 2024.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on January 6th was 828 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.20% compared to the average price of 826 yuan/ton on January 1st.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has slightly increased this week. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, while the operating rate of domestic enterprises has decreased. The supply of ammonium sulfate in the market has decreased, the source of goods is tight, and manufacturers are mainly raising prices. Ammonium sulfate can be purchased downstream according to demand, and the market demand is still acceptable. There are currently no favorable factors in the international market for ammonium sulfate, and the market is still weak. The recent decline in urea prices has a negative impact on domestic ammonium sulfate. As of January 6th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 810 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 830-860 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic ammonium sulfate market has seen a decrease in spot prices recently, and the market trend has slightly increased. At present, downstream demand is stable, and foreign market trading is average. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will be dominated by price stagnation and consolidation.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic market for maleic anhydride rose in December and then fell back, resulting in an overall increase in prices. As of January 3rd, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 6460.00 yuan/ton (including tax), an increase of 3.19% compared to 6260.00 yuan/ton on December 1st.

On the supply side: In mid December, the production unit of maleic anhydride in Yantai unexpectedly shut down, causing a significant decline in the supply of liquid anhydride in the market. At the beginning of the week, the main factory price of maleic anhydride increased by 1000 yuan/ton, and the dealer quotation also increased. Production resumed in Yantai in the latter half of the year, and the supply of maleic anhydride in the market increased. The raw material n-butane market fell, and downstream market operations were cautious, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The prices of major maleic anhydride factories fell, and dealer quotes followed suit. As of January 3rd, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6100 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5700 yuan/ton.

Upstream: The overall price of pure benzene decreased in December. The inventory of ports in East China is accumulating, and prices continue to be weak. Shandong’s local refining transactions are sluggish, and market prices have decreased. It is expected that the pure benzene market will be weak and volatile in the short term.

The international crude oil market fluctuated and rose in December, with n-butane market prices first rising and then falling. As of January 3, the price in Shandong was around 5150-5200 yuan/ton.

Downstream: The unsaturated resin market in December was affected by fluctuations in the raw material maleic anhydride market, and as the end of the year approached, some unsaturated resin companies had plans to halt prices. Unsaturated resin urgently needed to be purchased downstream, which limited support for unsaturated resin. Currently, unsaturated resin mainly relies on demand for maleic anhydride.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that downstream unsaturated resins maintain a strong demand and provide limited support for the maleic anhydride market; The upstream n-butane market of maleic anhydride has slightly increased, but currently the transaction volume of maleic anhydride is average, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate in a narrow range in the near future.

Review of the 2024 Soda Ash Market

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market for soda ash in 2024 is weak and weak, with a wide downward trend in price. At the beginning of the year, the average market price of soda ash was 2790 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price was 1528 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 1262 yuan/ton during the year, a decrease of 45.23%.

From the annual price trend chart, it can be seen that the price of soda ash will continue to decline in 2024, with only the soda ash market showing a rebound in April and May.

From January to March, the price dropped from 2790 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 1900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31.90%. Firstly, in early January and February, due to sufficient stock preparation before the Spring Festival in downstream areas, the demand for downstream replenishment weakened after the holiday, and manufacturers’ inventory accumulated, resulting in a weak decline in soda ash prices; From mid February to the end of March, the domestic operating rate remained high, and soda ash companies continued to accumulate inventory, which suppressed the mentality of the soda ash market. The industry’s mentality was bearish, and soda ash prices continued to decline.

In April and May, the price of soda ash rose from 1900 yuan/ton to 2170 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.21%. The improvement in the market during this stage is mainly influenced by macro information, real estate policy support, and expectations of overseas interest rate cuts, which have supported the recovery of downstream demand. Manufacturers have a positive attitude, and at the same time, some equipment on the supply side is undergoing maintenance, which has strong market benefits and boosted the continuous rise of soda ash prices.

From June to December, the soda ash market once again entered a downward trend, with prices continuously bottoming out, dropping from 2170 yuan/ton to 1528 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a decrease of 29.59%. In the second half of the year, the market supply remained at a high level, and manufacturers’ inventories continued to accumulate. However, the sluggish real estate industry on the demand side led to a weak glass market, resulting in low downstream demand for soda ash. The strong supply and weak demand in the market led to a continuous decline in soda ash prices under inventory pressure.

Fundamental analysis of the soda ash market in 2024

Supply side:

In terms of supply, starting from 2022, with the slowdown of public health incidents, property sales have risen, downstream housing construction demand has begun to recover, photovoltaic production capacity has expanded, and demand for photovoltaic glass has increased. The driving force of downstream industries has led the domestic soda ash industry into a rapid capacity expansion cycle, and the production capacity and output have shown a steady growth trend in the past three years. By 2024, the national soda ash production capacity will approach 41 million tons, with a production of 33.73 million tons from January to November, and an expected annual production of 36.53 million tons.

From the perspective of new production capacity, all new production capacity exceeding 3 million tons in 2024 has been postponed to the fourth quarter for some reason, and it is expected that the total production capacity will exceed 40 million tons for the first time by the end of the year; Lianyungang Debang and Lianyungang Alkali Industry’s soda ash plants are planned to be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and it is expected that production will be basically normal in the first quarter of next year.

Demand side:

The downstream glass market is expected to experience weak and volatile price trends in 2024, with a decrease in real estate completion data and weak demand for glass in the industry chain, leading to an overall downturn in the industry. From the comparison chart of glass and soda ash prices in 2024, except for the strong fluctuations in the glass market due to increased destocking in the fourth quarter, the price trend for the whole year is basically consistent with that of upstream soda ash, and the supply and demand sides of soda ash are running weakly simultaneously.

Import and Export:

From the import and export data of soda ash from 2018 to 2024, it can be seen that China’s soda ash import volume is relatively small, while the export volume is relatively large. However, the import and export gap has significantly decreased in 2024, mainly due to the decrease in soda ash prices. Considering domestic freight and storage surcharges, some traders have turned their attention to overseas markets with lower prices, resulting in a significant increase in import quantities. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative import volume of soda ash from January to November 2024 was 968200 tons, and the export volume was 1038600 tons.

From the perspective of new production capacity, a total of 4.8 million tons will be added in 2025, and the total production capacity may reach 47.45 million tons. The amount of investment in 2025 far exceeds that of 2024, and the domestic soda ash industry has entered a rapid expansion cycle. The supply pressure has further increased, and inventory levels are expected to rise simultaneously, thereby suppressing the expectation of soda ash price increases.

In terms of demand:

The decline in real estate completion data in the terminal market confirms the weak demand for glass in the real estate sector, leading to an overall downturn in the industry. The overall demand for glass in the future will gradually decrease, and price expectations are bearish. The consumption of soda ash will also be indirectly affected, and demand will remain weak in 2025.

Market forecast for the future:

In summary, it is expected that the production capacity of soda ash will continue to increase in 2025, but the demand side will be difficult to improve, and the market will continue to have a strong supply and weak demand situation. In order to improve the situation of domestic oversupply, exports may further increase in 2025. At that time, inventory will be slightly reduced or prices will fluctuate narrowly. However, with strong supply support, it is expected that the overall soda ash market prices will still be weak in 2025.