Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On September 26th, the average market price was 8233 yuan/ton.

Analysis: Today’s domestic pure benzene prices are weak and downward, and the atmosphere of on-site negotiations is currently light. The crude oil market is experiencing poor performance, and the price of pure benzene is weakening along with crude oil. The main focus is on destocking of port inventory, but there is a significant accumulation of inventory in the future, and the market mentality is unstable. As a result, Shandong’s local refining market continues to decline. Prediction: It is expected that the pure benzene market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic lithium carbonate market was weak in September. As of September 25th, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 77800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.82% from the same period last month when it was 84400 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 75200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.84% from the same period last month when it was 81600 yuan/ton.

1、 The reduction in production is lower than expected

Recently, Ningde Times Yichun project and Jiuling Lithium Industry announced the suspension of production for maintenance. However, actual production data shows that domestic lithium carbonate production has decreased by about 3000 tons per month, which is significantly lower than the market expectation of around 5000 tons. The supply of lithium carbonate in the market has not significantly decreased as expected, which has not provided favorable support for prices.

2、 Demand peak season falls short of high inventory

Currently, it is the peak demand season for lithium carbonate, and the rapid development of new energy vehicles and energy storage fields has significantly increased the demand for lithium carbonate. In terms of power batteries, in August, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was 47.2GWh, a month on month increase of 13.5% and a year-on-year increase of 35.3%. Among them, the installed capacity of ternary batteries was 12.1 GWh, accounting for 25.7% of the total installed capacity, a month on month increase of 6.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 35.0 GWh, accounting for 74.2% of the total installed capacity, a month on month increase of 16.1%, and a year-on-year increase of 45.6%.

Yahua Group’s annual production of 100000 tons in Sichuan and Ganfeng Lithium’s integrated project of lithium iron phosphate in Inner Mongolia have both made new progress this month, with increasing pressure on the supply side. The overall supply and demand are matched to the inventory side, and although inventory continues to be depleted, the speed of depletion is not very ideal.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the lithium carbonate market showed a weak and volatile trend in September. The arrival of the peak demand season and the growing demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage have provided certain support for the market. However, the unsatisfactory speed of inventory turnover and the dynamic changes in market supply and demand may make it difficult for prices to experience significant increases or decreases.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 24th, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 2675 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.9% compared to 2625 yuan/ton on September 1st at the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last month on September 24th at 2750 yuan/ton, it decreased by 2.73%; Compared to the same period last year on September 24th, it decreased by 22.16%.

1、 Weakened cost support

The price of methanol, the main raw material, has fallen: As the main production raw material for formic acid, the price trend of methanol has a significant impact on the cost of formic acid. Recently, the methanol market prices have shown a fluctuating downward trend, leading to a weakening of cost support for formic acid producers. The unfavorable changes in cost have made formic acid producers more cautious in pricing, and even have to respond to market changes by lowering prices.

2、 Stable supply is the main focus

Overall sufficient supply: Although some formic acid production enterprises have equipment maintenance and production reduction, the overall capacity utilization rate is still high, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. This to some extent limits the upward space of formic acid prices.

3、 Poor performance on the demand side

Downstream industry off-season: The main downstream industries of formic acid include textiles, leather, pharmaceuticals, rubber, etc. These industries have weak purchasing intentions during the off-season, resulting in weak demand for formic acid in the market. The decrease in downstream demand has further exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance in the formic acid market.

Low enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement: Due to the off-season in downstream industries and low demand for formic acid, the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is generally low. This has led to significant shipping pressure for formic acid producers, who have to stimulate sales by lowering prices.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current formic acid market is characterized by a stalemate in supply and demand, balanced production and sales, and no significant positive factors to support price increases in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the formic acid market will continue to maintain a volatile trend and it is difficult to see a significant rebound.

This week (9.14-9.20), there was a slight improvement in trading in the domestic acrylonitrile spot market, with supply expected to continue to decrease and market prices stabilizing. Shandong, as the region with the most active spot trading volume, has reached the mainstream transaction reference price of 8250-8450 yuan/ton as of September 20th, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the reference price of 8150-8350 yuan/ton on September 13th.

This week’s positive support still comes from the supply side: the inventory of acrylonitrile factories continued to decline during the week. As of September 18th, the total inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was about 49700 tons, a decrease of -0.76% compared to last week, a decrease of -13.26%.

In terms of cost: This week, the price of propylene in Shandong’s market has risen narrowly. As of the weekend, the mainstream closing reference is 6580-6680 yuan/ton, an increase of+0.23% compared to last week, with limited cost support.

Weak demand: This week, some new equipment from ABS manufacturers has encountered some difficulties in production, with qualified products not being released as scheduled. Additionally, some maintenance equipment has been restarted and maintained at low load or with slightly delayed restart times. As of the weekend, the average operating rate of the equipment was 65.44%, an increase of 4.87% compared to the previous period.

Market expectation: Overall, the factory inventory is currently not under pressure, and there are maintenance plans for both the north and south facilities next month. At the same time, there is a certain expectation of stocking demand before the long holiday. The spot market preference is fluctuating, but it is still insufficient to continue to rise. We are concerned about the positive news landing.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 6790 yuan/ton, which is 0.30% higher than the reference average price of 6770 yuan/ton on September 11th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 7033 yuan/ton, which is 0.72% higher than the reference average price of 6983 yuan/ton on September 11th.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic phosphoric acid market saw a slight increase in mid September. As of September 20th, the delivery price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6850-7000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6750-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 7033 yuan/ton.

Cost end

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. In mid September, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus slightly decreased due to lack of market confidence and increased wait-and-see sentiment. Specific transaction negotiations are underway. It is expected that the short-term yellow phosphorus market will mainly focus on consolidation and operation.

Raw material phosphate rock market. In mid September, the market price of phosphate rock remained stable at a high level, with tight supply in some areas, and the main focus was on issuing preliminary orders. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

In mid September, some wet process phosphoric acid plants resumed production and market supply increased. Before the holiday, downstream companies began actively stocking up, and the market urgently needed support. At present, the phosphoric acid market maintains a supply-demand balance.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the phosphate market has experienced narrow fluctuations in recent days. At present, the raw material phosphate rock remains strong at a high level, while the raw material yellow phosphorus market is weakening, and the market supply and demand are stable. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market price will remain stagnant and operate mainly.

After the holiday, the domestic melamine market was weakly consolidated, downstream industrial demand was low, and there were few new transactions in the market. The overall atmosphere was sluggish. As of September 19th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6762.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (6775.00 yuan/ton). The price drop of enterprises in various regions is between 50-100 yuan/ton.

The main reason for the sustained decline in the domestic melamine market recently is insufficient demand. In addition, the price of raw material urea has started to decline, and the transactions of melamine enterprises in the first week after the holiday are limited, resulting in a continuous decrease in prices. With the rapid decline in high-end prices, the wait-and-see mentality of downstream enterprises has intensified. In addition, downstream enterprises have more or less stocked up before the holiday, resulting in poor purchasing enthusiasm. Domestic trade demand is weak, and exports are also in a wait-and-see state. The melamine market lacks strong support, and prices continue to fall.

From the perspective of downstream demand, the operating rate of domestic sheet metal enterprises has decreased, and coupled with local environmental inspections, the operating rate in some areas is less than 50%. Due to reduced demand, melamine companies have difficulty following up on new orders, resulting in a significant decline in the market. Buyers are hesitant to enter the market unless they have urgent needs, leading to frequent low prices in the melamine market.

Raw material prices are falling

Recently, there has been another large-scale decline in domestic urea prices, and the current market lacks positive news to boost the market, resulting in a continued weak downward trend in prices. As of September 19th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 2171.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.09% compared to the beginning of this month (2173.00 yuan/ton). The current market supply and demand fundamentals are weakly supported, with weak trading sentiment and a narrow downward trend in the market. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to decline in the short term, and the market will be mainly dominated by weak consolidation.

Overall, there is no positive expectation for the domestic melamine market in the short term. It is expected that the mainstream price at atmospheric pressure will be around 6500-6700 yuan/ton next week. In the later stage, we need to mainly focus on downstream demand dynamics and changes in raw material prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market has been declining first and then rising recently (9.9-9.18), with an overall downward trend. On September 9th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6320 yuan/ton, and on September 18th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% during the period. This cycle, the toluene market continued to operate weakly, with market prices fluctuating downward. During the cycle, the crude oil market fell first and then rose. The early trend dragged down the weak mentality of the toluene market. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, the crude oil market rose, driving the toluene market to recover slightly after the festival. On the supply side, the overall inventory of toluene in East and South China was low this week, but due to the downstream wait-and-see mentality, market trading was significantly sluggish. The main refineries have repeatedly lowered their ex factory prices, and local refining enterprises have continuously lowered their quotations. Downstream companies are observing and the purchasing enthusiasm is generally weak. As of September 18th, the mainstream quotation range in East China is between 6200-6250 yuan/ton.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, the crude oil market first fell and then rose. In September, the crude oil trend sharply declined, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East affected the crude oil market trend. The easing of the situation at the beginning of the month led to a significant decline in the crude oil market; Since September, there have been concerns about the future demand for crude oil market, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market; Finally, due to the rise in US crude oil inventories and negative factors, the overall crude oil market prices have significantly decreased. As of September 17th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.19 per barrel, an increase of $1.10 or 1.6%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $73.01 per barrel, an increase of $0.86 or 1.2%.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation has been lowered during the cycle, but there are slight differences in the amplitude adjustment among different underground sources. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. As of September 18th, East China Company quoted 6150 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6250 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6150-6200 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6250 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On September 18th, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7800 yuan/ton for xylene, which remained unchanged from the price on September 9th. PX prices continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $834-836/ton as of September 17th, a cumulative decrease of $31/ton from $865-867/ton on September 8th

Market forecast: The cost side crude oil market has been weak recently, and the overall market environment is bearish. The recovery of the crude oil market during the Mid Autumn Festival holiday will provide some boost to the market. In terms of supply, local refining enterprises in Shandong have experienced a slight decline in production recently, but overall supply is still relatively loose, which has limited impact on boosting the market. Recently, the overall atmosphere in the toluene market has been weak, with low downstream purchasing intentions and limited trading. Although prices have been at a low level for the year, some regions have expressed some intention to replenish inventory, but overall transactions are limited. Downstream demand tends to be rigid, and demand support is insufficient. Overall, there are still negative factors in the toluene market, and the mentality of supply and demand game is still strong. It is expected that the short-term trend will be dominated by narrow fluctuations. Focus on downstream replenishment in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 20400 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 20060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.67% and a decrease of 17.45% compared to the same period last year. On September 13th, the bromine commodity index was 70.88, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 71.09% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 20.30% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has been running weakly, with prices in Shandong region showing a weak trend. The mainstream market price is around 19500-20500 yuan/ton, and the production of bromine enterprises is stabilizing with generally sufficient inventory; The overall quantity of imported bromine remains stable. The production and demand for downstream flame retardants of bromine are generally average, and the demand for agriculture and intermediates is also average. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been consolidating, with an average market price of 1425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1384.33 yuan/ton over the weekend. The price has decreased by 2.85% and increased by 27% compared to the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to consolidate. Downstream flame retardant production is average, and demand for agriculture and intermediates is moderate. Demand is mainly driven by on-demand procurement. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

This week (9.6-9.12), the domestic acrylonitrile market prices began to decline. At the end of August, the domestic acrylonitrile market rapidly rose and entered a consolidation state. The mainstream market price quickly rose from 8000 yuan/ton to 8600 yuan/ton. Recently, the market price has started to fall again, with the Shandong market experiencing a more significant decline. The spot prices of major factories in the region were lowered by 200 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton. In less than half a month, the acrylonitrile market price rose and then fell back.

The reason is that this round of market fluctuation and rapid rise in the short term are due to the positive supply side, the fundamentals are still not substantially improved, the actual demand follow-up is not awesome, and the industry inventory is only transferred from upstream factories to intermediate links and downstream factories, not actually digested, which leads to the surplus of local resources, causing the market to fall back again.

Starting from late August, major factories in the East China region such as Sinopec, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Shanghai SECCO have gradually reduced their production capacity due to equipment failures or cost pressures. The industry’s capacity utilization rate has rapidly dropped to below 70%, and Anqing Petrochemical also has maintenance plans in early October, providing market opportunities for growth. Shandong manufacturer Lihua Yi’s quotation has continuously increased, stimulating buying follow-up. During this period, both intermediaries and downstream factories have restocked, further driving up market transaction prices rapidly.

During this period, the inventory of acrylonitrile factories showed a downward trend, but more inventory was transferred to local tank farms and downstream factories. Some merchants held onto their stocks and waited for an increase, while the overall supply of the industry remained abundant. After entering September, there was no significant increase in production in major downstream sectors, and the actual consumption performance was average. Overall, the improvement in fundamentals was limited. As Shandong is the region with the most active spot trading volume, all four acrylonitrile production enterprises in the region are operating normally, and competition pressure continues to exist, resulting in poor sales for some manufacturers and prices falling first in the region.

Market expectation: Anqing Petrochemical plans to conduct maintenance in mid October, with a relatively balanced production and sales among manufacturers in the East China region. In the northern market, Liaoning Jinfa will resume operation of two lines, with an increase in supply. The differentiation between the southern and northern markets will become more apparent, which may promote the flow of regional resources. Overall, the domestic supply and demand are basically balanced. Considering the demand for stocking up before the long holiday, the market is expected to have limited downward space, and we will continue to pay attention to changes in the supply side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of formic acid has slightly increased recently. As of September 10th, the average market price of 85% formic acid in China was 2625 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.94%.

Low operating rate and reduced on-site supply

This week’s formic acid production rate was 54.29%, a decrease from last week. During the week, some mainstream formic acid enterprises had their facilities shut down, resulting in a narrow reduction in overall supply. In addition, some manufacturers were also in a shutdown state, and the restart time is yet to be determined. At present, the decrease in on-site supply provides strong support for the rise in formic acid market prices.

Downstream demand is average, with limited upward momentum

Recently, downstream demand for formic acid has increased significantly, with average shipments from distributors and a light trading atmosphere on site. The downstream dye industry is about to enter the peak season in September, with slow demand growth and a significant increase in dye factory orders, which may provide support for formic acid prices.

Insufficient cost support

The main reason for the decline in the raw material methanol market is macroeconomic weakness. Domestic methanol supply has recovered, import volume remains high, and port methanol inventory has accumulated. In addition, some downstream industries are still in the recovery stage, and demand has not yet recovered to a high level. The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a downturn.

Market forecast:

The upstream raw material market price of formic acid is weak, the on-site supply is low, and the downstream peak season is approaching. Under the combination of multiple factors, the formic acid market is expected to fluctuate.