Introduction: Methanol is a colorless and clear liquid, and its vapor can form an explosive mixture with air, producing blue fire when burned. Methanol can be miscible with organic solvents such as water, ethanol, benzene, and ketones. Its vapor forms an explosive mixture with air, which can ignite and explode when exposed to open flames or high heat energy. The methanol model monitored by Business Society is of superior quality.

Firstly, let’s review the trend of the methanol market in 2024. The domestic methanol market fluctuated widely in 2024, with the lowest point occurring in early September at a price of 2338 yuan/ton and the highest point occurring in late May at a price of 3020 yuan/ton. The annual increase was 12.07%, with a maximum amplitude of 29.17% and an average price of 2567.67 yuan/ton.

In the first stage (January May), the price of methanol in the mainland market showed a fluctuating upward trend

In the first quarter, the prices in the mainland market showed a range of fluctuations. After the New Year’s Day holiday, the prices in the mainland market have fallen to a relatively low level, which has stimulated downstream markets to restock to some extent. Manufacturers in the main production areas are actively shipping, but overall downstream demand is limited to follow up, and cautious sentiment among operators is gradually rising. In addition, the mainland is once again experiencing rainy and snowy weather, with some highways closed and resource circulation hindered. As a result, downstream operators are stocking up in advance, and the market transaction atmosphere has improved. After mid March, with the implementation of the spring inspection plan and the temporary shutdown of some facilities, the supply of methanol in the field has been reduced. In addition, due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, oil prices have risen, driving up the methanol futures market and boosting market atmosphere. At the same time, some facilities in mainland China have been undergoing maintenance, and factory and port inventories have remained low. With the support of low inventories, the prices of methanol in the mainland and port markets have risen synchronously, especially during the period from late April to mid May, when the spot market prices of methanol increased the most significantly.

In the second stage (mid May to October), the methanol market price fluctuated after falling from a high level

With the sustained high price of methanol in the early stage, downstream industry profits have been severely compressed. Under cost pressure, MTO units in Northwest, East China, Shandong and other regions have been undergoing maintenance and shutdown since mid May, resulting in a significant reduction in methanol demand. At the same time, traditional demand has gradually entered the off-season, and the overall demand side has shown weak performance, which has had a significant negative impact on the market. Weak demand has constrained the high prices of methanol in the mainland market. After entering the third quarter, the methanol market prices have been continuously falling, constrained by downstream demand. The methanol period continues to operate weakly, which to some extent undermines the mentality of industry players. Downstream factories maintain high levels of raw material inventory, and market prices continue to fall. Some manufacturers have lowered their quotes due to poor shipments. Until the National Day holiday, with the introduction of favorable domestic macro policies and the strong rise in international crude oil prices, the main contract futures price of methanol opened with a strong rise. However, due to the rapid increase in market prices and the obvious resistance of downstream suppliers to high priced sources, the rise was short-lived under the influence of supply and demand contradictions. After the positive boost was digested, the spot market price of methanol quickly fell back.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the domestic methanol market prices saw a wide upward trend, supported by the release of macroeconomic favorable conditions, a decrease in the arrival of imported ships and cargo, and relatively low supply pressure in the mainland market. Overall, the market prices showed a fluctuating upward trend. After returning from the National Day holiday, the main contract futures price of methanol saw a significant increase due to the rise in crude oil prices and macroeconomic incentives. However, with the price increase, downstream industry profits were compressed, and the market trading atmosphere quickly cooled down. After November, due to the impact of natural gas restrictions on facilities in some international regions, it is expected that imported ship inventories will be reduced to some extent. This has boosted the continuous strong fluctuations in the main methanol futures market. In addition, some olefin factories in the northwest region continue to export, and the shipment of various manufacturers in the main production areas is relatively smooth. With the support of low supply pressure, market quotations have risen, and the overall price of methanol market is mainly on the rise.

In terms of downstream production: MTO has been put into operation. In 2024, Baofeng Phase I with a capacity of 1 million tons per year has already been put into operation. In 2025, Baofeng Phase II and III, as well as the olefin plant supporting Shandong Lianhong Gerun, will be put into operation, with a total capacity of 2.37 million tons per year. In 2026, middling coal Yulin Phase II, Shenhua Baotou, Guangxi Huayi and other methanol supporting downstream integrated units, Inner Mongolia Rongxin olefin unit, a total of 4.2 million tons/year. From the observation of downstream production of non olefins, from 2024 to 2025, BDO、 The further expansion of downstream production capacity such as acetic acid and dimethyl carbonate has significantly boosted the demand for methanol. It is expected that the demand for methanol will increase by 7.5 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7%. The apparent consumption of methanol in China will reach 112.68 million tons in 2025.

In the future, with the frequent release of various national economic policies, the global economic development trend is expected to maintain stable growth in 2025. Looking back at the fundamentals of methanol, there are still plans to add new production capacity both domestically and internationally in 2025. If the production is scheduled, the overall supply in the mainland market may remain abundant, and it is expected that the import volume will also maintain a high level in 2025. At the same time, traditional downstream products of methanol also have plans to add new production capacity. However, considering the downturn in the real estate industry in recent years and the continued weak demand in the terminal market, whether the new production capacity can be put into operation as scheduled still needs to be closely monitored in the later stage. Overall, it is expected that the price of methanol in the mainland market will be higher in 2025 than in 2024, but in the later stage, attention needs to be paid to macro aspects, coal prices, total import and export of methanol, the production of new market capacity, and the recovery of downstream demand at the terminal.