According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market continued to decline from October 14 to 21, 2024. On October 14th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6200 yuan/ton, and on October 21st, the benchmark price of toluene was 5850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.65% during the period. This cycle coincided with the National Day holiday, during which the external market continued to rise. The toluene market made up for the post holiday gains, and the overall ex factory prices of main refineries increased. However, downstream follow-up was insufficient and lacked demand support, resulting in weak growth in the toluene market. After the holiday, there were more arrivals in the port market, and market supply increased. Under the influence of sufficient supply, the toluene market rose and then fell back, and the overall trading in the spot market was weak. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong.

Cost wise: As of the 18th, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States at $68.69 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.06 per barrel. The recent trend of crude oil prices has fallen, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is controllable. In addition, the future demand for crude oil market is worrying, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market; However, the recent decline in US crude oil inventories still provides support for the crude oil market, resulting in a slight decrease in overall crude oil market prices.

Supply side: Sinopec toluene quotation situation: Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, the products are mostly self used, and the production and sales are stable. As of October 21st, East China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5900-5950 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5900 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On October 21st, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7600 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the price on October 14th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of October 18th, the closing price of the xylene market in Asia increased by $10/ton, with a closing price of $823-825/ton FOB Korea and $848-850/ton CFR China.

On Friday (October 18th), the Asian toluene market closed higher: the FOB South Korean closing price in October was 712-714 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton; The closing price of CFR China in October is 709-711 US dollars per ton, an increase of 9 US dollars per ton.

Market forecast: In the near future, the toluene market will be less affected by crude oil and mainly affected by supply and demand. The market supply has significantly increased recently, and refineries are actively reducing prices to sell their accumulated inventory. Downstream demand will basically maintain on-demand procurement, and gasoline demand in some areas will perform well. However, overall, there is still support on the demand side. It is expected that the toluene market will remain stable in the short term, with minor fluctuations during the week.

This week (October 14-18, 2024), the bearish trend dominated the nylon filament market, and the trend continued to decline. The upstream raw material market continues to decline, with weakened cost support and no improvement in downstream terminal market demand. Downstream manufacturers are holding onto their essential needs and following suit. The trading atmosphere in the market is average, and many businesses are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament continued to decline this week (October 14-18, 2024). As of October 18, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 17780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton or 1% from the beginning of last week; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 15300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 1.13%. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 19300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton or 0.92% compared to last week.

Weak raw materials continue to decline

This week (October 14-18, 2024), in terms of nylon filament raw material caprolactam, the market sentiment is bearish, and the industry chain is mostly pessimistic. On site supply is gradually easing, and prices continue to decline. As of October 18, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 11450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% from last week.

Supply demand

This week (October 14-18, 2024), the overall supply of nylon filament market remained stable, and most of the nylon filament market facilities were operating steadily. Currently, the daily production of nylon filament market is running at around 8.4%. On the demand side, the traditional peak season for textile production in October did not meet expectations, and the “Silver Ten” event did not materialize. Demand did not substantially improve, coupled with weak costs. Weaving manufacturers have mostly maintained stable production, and foreign trade brands have gradually issued orders. However, the order volume is still mainly in the form of a small number of multiple orders, and there are still few bulk goods. Lack of market confidence.

Future forecast

Although entering the traditional peak season for textiles, downstream market demand will improve to some extent, but there is currently no obvious sign of improvement, and on-demand procurement is still the main focus; The cost side caprolactam market is mainly weak, and the cost side support for nylon filament is weak. Pessimistic sentiment is pervasive in the market, and demand is unlikely to improve significantly. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly consolidate and operate weakly.

Although the market expects limited supply growth in October, demand remains weak and there is still little possibility of a rebound in transaction volume. Although domestic acrylonitrile plants have been reducing their load since August, with production dropping to around 63% at one point, the production in August still increased by 20000 tons compared to the same period last year, resulting in oversupply in the market. Therefore, manufacturers currently have sufficient inventory. In addition, although the profitability of downstream ABS manufacturers has improved, the increase in operating load of the devices is limited, and some new devices have not increased their load as expected, resulting in limited overall demand growth. The overall market presents a situation of sufficient supply but insufficient demand, and there is a lack of price action.

At present, the price difference between the north and south markets still exists, and multiple acrylonitrile plants in the south are undergoing production reduction or maintenance, leading to a tightening of supply and firm offers from manufacturers. But the northern region is operating at full capacity, and under the pressure of shipment, the focus of transactions continues to decline. With the gradual restart of the early maintenance equipment and the increase in on-site supply, prices in the south will also be dragged down by the north, and the focus of transactions may decline accordingly.

In terms of cost, multiple units such as a PDH unit in Jiangsu and an MTO unit in Nanjing have been shut down for maintenance. The spot circulation of propylene in East China is not large, and the supply pattern remains tight. It is expected that the East China market will remain stable and strong in the short term, and the cost pressure of acrylonitrile still exists.

In terms of demand, downstream ABS has returned from the National Day holiday, and the second production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II is gradually achieving mass production. Jilin Petrochemical’s plant has restarted, and Zhangjiagang Shengxiao ABS plant has restarted, resulting in a slight increase in demand. However, in terms of downstream acrylic fiber, multiple facilities such as Ningbo Zhongxin, Hangzhou Bay, and Jilin Chemical Fiber have been shut down for maintenance, resulting in a significant reduction in demand. The overall demand is still insufficient

Market expectation: Overall, the price difference between the north and south will continue to exist in the short term, but the continued weakness of downstream demand will also drag down transaction prices in the East China region. However, considering the current significant losses in the acrylonitrile industry, the downward space is limited, and the short-term acrylonitrile market will mainly experience weak fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has slightly increased. On October 13th, the average market price was 19860 yuan/ton, and on November 16th, the average market price was 20060 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01% and a decrease of 16.42% compared to the same period last year. On October 15th, the bromine commodity index was 70.39, up 0.35 points from yesterday, down 71.29% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and up 19.47% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the price of bromine has been operating strongly, with prices in Shandong region remaining firm. The mainstream market price is around 19500-20500 yuan/ton. This week, it is not affected by weather factors, and rainfall has significantly decreased. Bromine enterprises are operating normally with low inventory levels. The enthusiasm for inquiries and purchases of downstream flame retardants for bromine is relatively high, and the current downstream demand has limited cost support for bromine, which has boosted the overall market. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been consolidating, with an average market price of 1417.67 yuan/ton on October 13th and 1427.67 yuan/ton on October 16th. The price has increased by 0.71%, which is 54.06% higher than the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain strong in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain strong. Downstream flame retardants have a high level of enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement. Currently, downstream demand has limited cost support for bromine, which has boosted the overall market. Downstream inquiries are more active, and the supply-demand game is expected to continue the strong performance of bromine in the later period. The specific situation depends on downstream market demand.

Asphalt futures rose more than 2% in the evening session, as the rebound of asphalt was limited due to insufficient cost support. In terms of supply, the total domestic asphalt production in September was 2.0025 million tons, a decrease of 58000 tons or 2.81% compared to the previous month; A year-on-year decrease of 1.1422 million tons, a decrease of 36.32%. The demand for asphalt is showing a marginal improvement trend, and the shipping atmosphere is still acceptable. In the short term, the national climate conditions are suitable, which is favorable for road project construction. In addition, there will also be a rush to work in the north, and the demand for asphalt is still good. In November, the demand in the north may decline. Expected short-term supply and demand impact, asphalt is expected to fluctuate narrowly.

After the holiday, the price of isooctanol rose sharply and then fell back

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 12th, the price of isooctanol was 9233.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.05% compared to the price of 8706.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. Economic expectations are expected to rebound, and demand for isooctanol is expected to rebound. In addition, after the holiday, isooctanol stocks will be replenished, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol prices. As the replenishment ends and the economic recovery falls short of expectations, demand is expected to decline, and the high price of isooctanol is expected to drop.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices rise sharply before falling back

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 12th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9238.75 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased compared to the DOP price of 8988.75 yuan/ton on October 1st, with a growth rate of 2.78%. The post holiday economic recovery, coupled with the replenishment of plasticizers after the holiday, has led to an increase in demand for DOP and a rise in DOP prices. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises has increased, and the demand for isooctanol by plasticizers has increased; With the end of inventory replenishment and a decline in demand, coupled with a slower than expected economic recovery, the price of plasticizer DOP has fallen from a high level. The demand for octanol rose and then fell, and the price of octanol rose and then fell.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol products, after the National Day holiday, favorable policies continue to be implemented, and economic expectations are expected to rebound. Influenced by macroeconomic policy sentiment, downstream customers have shown good enthusiasm for receiving goods. In addition, downstream customers have restocked, resulting in a temporary increase in transactions and a rise in octanol prices; As the price of octanol rises to a high level, downstream customers’ resistance to high prices increases, and market purchasing enthusiasm decreases, causing the price of octanol to fall back from its high level. In the future, it remains to be verified whether the policy can bring substantial improvement in the short term due to the impact of policies. The sentiment in the octanol market is relatively warm in the short term, but in the medium and long term, the market mainly affects prices through supply and demand. The supply and demand in the octanol market are relatively balanced, and the expected price of octanol is expected to consolidate.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, caustic soda prices rose in September. At the beginning of the month, the average market price in Shandong was 829 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price in Shandong was around 833 yuan/ton. The overall price increased by 0.48%, and the price increased by 18.41% compared to the same period last year. On September 29th, the chemical index was 837 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 40.21% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 39.97% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has increased this month. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 900-950 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 810-900 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali.

At the beginning of September, the market showed an upward trend, with some areas experiencing some improvement in transaction conditions. The maintenance of some facilities in Shandong had a significant boost to market prices, and there was not much pressure on enterprise inventory. In early September, downstream alumina prices continued to show a stable to strong trend. Some aluminum plants that have a demand for replenishment have concentrated their purchases in the market, driving the price of caustic soda to continue to rise. Alumina continues to be in a tight pattern, and there may still be a demand for replenishing caustic soda.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 39th week of 2024 (9.23-9.27), there were a total of 2 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 2 products with zero price fluctuations in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have risen are: calcium carbide (2.53%), PVC (1.25%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are: light soda ash (-2.77%) and baking soda (-1.48%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.08%.

Business analysts believe that the price of caustic soda has been consolidating recently. At present, the inventory of caustic soda plants is low, and there are more maintenance enterprises in the main production areas after the holiday. It cannot be ruled out that there may be a price increase in the market. Overall, it is expected that there will be an upward trend in the later period of the National Day holiday, depending on downstream market demand.

In August, domestic liquid ammonia gradually bottomed out and stabilized, and ammonia prices continued to fluctuate upwards in September. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province increased by 9.81% in September. The main reason is that in the context of stable downstream demand, there are more equipment maintenance in the northern region, leading to a decrease in operating rates and easing of supply pressure. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2750-2900 yuan/ton.

The tight performance of intensive maintenance and supply of equipment

In terms of supply, the main issue is the shortage of supply. In September, ammonia plants generally reduced their supply, and the production of equipment in the main northern production areas decreased. Since September, the increase in maintenance equipment and temporary shutdown of ammonia companies have affected some production. Mainly manifested in Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, and the Two Lakes region. Especially in the first week, the increase was significant, and manufacturers concentrated on raising the ex factory price by more than 300 yuan/ton. Subsequently, with the recovery of supply, ammonia prices experienced a slight correction, and the market returned to an upward trend in the second half of the month. The price increase continued until the end of the month, and the current market performance shows a basic balance between supply and demand.

The overall improvement of the industrial chain is not significant, and the downstream demand of the “Golden Nine” is insufficient

From the diagram of the liquid ammonia industry chain, it can be seen that the upstream and downstream environment of liquid ammonia has not improved significantly, and the upstream natural gas has not continued its upward trend in August. As of the end of September, the decline has been 6.41%. Especially in the downstream sector, the trend is still generally cold, with more declines and less gains. This is mainly reflected in the slow start of downstream demand, the sluggish peak season of “Golden September”, and the downward trend of terminal production in major industrial demand areas. The market relies heavily on the demand for agricultural compound fertilizers, but the current increase in compound fertilizer production has not met market expectations. The market is mainly driven by rigid demand, and the demand side is restricting the increase in ammonia prices. This round of rise is mainly driven by the supply side.

Especially downstream urea has shown poor performance, according to Shengyi Society, urea fell by 0.74% in September. On the one hand, the supply performance is sufficient, but domestic urea manufacturers have insufficient ammonia conversion and high inventory. Combined with weak exports. On the other hand, there was no significant increase in downstream procurement volume, and the market performance remained calm.

Market forecast:

Business analysts believe that from a supply side perspective, there is not much pressure on the market supply, equipment production is normal, and inventory continues to deplete. The enterprise has a certain price mentality, but it is not greatly affected by the improvement of downstream demand. Urea lacks upward momentum, and the power to convert equipment to urea is insufficient. The output of liquid ammonia still shows rigidity. Overall, it is difficult for a large-scale market oversupply to occur in the short term.

From the demand side, the peak season for autumn fertilizer preparation is not prosperous, but the market is still relatively cold. Agricultural demand remains stable, but the increase is slow. From the perspective of industrial demand, the continuous decline in downstream acrylonitrile production rate may pose a constraint on liquid ammonia. The peak season of “Silver October” is also difficult to predict.

Taking all factors into consideration, the price of liquid ammonia will tend to adjust narrowly in the near future with a basic balance between supply and demand, and there is little possibility of a significant rise or fall, with range fluctuations being the main trend.

The domestic fluorite price trend slightly decreased in September, with an average price of 3381.25 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 1.64% from the beginning price of 3437.5 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 4.75%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. Recently, the fluorite market has stopped falling. With the shortage of supply and winter storage season, the atmosphere of factory price increases is strong. At the end of the month, some.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price increase helps refrigerant market rise

The pricing of hydrofluoric acid by major domestic manufacturers has increased. In September, the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China was negotiated at 10300-10800 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and more than 50% of hydrofluoric acid production has started. The pricing of hydrofluoric acid major factories has increased, which is a positive support for the domestic fluorite market. Fluorite prices will rise in the later period.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, and the demand for summer after-sales service is rapidly digesting. The inventory will continue to be depleted throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The market for some refrigerant products has risen, and as a result, the fluorite market stopped falling in mid to late September.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense, nuclear industry, etc., including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market is still supported.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. Recently, the downstream refrigerant product market has risen, and coupled with the rise in downstream hydrofluoric acid market, favorable factors will support the fluorite market price to rise in October.

This week (9.23-27), domestic liquid ammonia continued its upward trend from last week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 0.71%. The main reason is that in the context of stable downstream demand, equipment maintenance and partial shutdowns in the northern region have eased supply pressure. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2750-2880 yuan/ton.

The performance of equipment maintenance without reducing supply is tight

From the supply side, there is not much pressure on supply, and the production of equipment in the main northern production areas has decreased. Since September, the increase in maintenance equipment and temporary shutdown of ammonia companies have affected some production. Mainly manifested in Shandong, Hebei, Henan, and the Two Lakes region. As the weekend approaches, some manufacturers are tentatively raising their factory prices by more than 50-100 yuan/ton. The market shows a basic balance between supply and demand.

The downstream of the liquid ammonia industry chain has slightly improved

From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, the downstream environment of liquid ammonia has slightly improved, while the upstream natural gas remains sluggish. This week, prices have slightly decreased, with a drop of 0.21%. In addition, the downstream sector has generally rebounded, mainly reflected in the strong rigidity of downstream demand and a slight rebound in agricultural demand; In addition, industrial demand remains primarily driven by essential needs. The main downstream products are urea (0.19%) and DMF (0.98%).

Downstream urea market slightly rebounds

In terms of downstream related products such as urea, the urea market has rebounded this week with a slight increase in prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic urea market has risen by 0.19%. As of this Friday, the mainstream quotation for small and medium-sized particles in Shandong region is around 2150 yuan/ton. The increase in urea prices is very limited, mainly due to the delayed and unexpected agricultural demand, the weak autumn procurement season for compound fertilizers, and the market’s general wait-and-see attitude. The increase in shipments from urea factories is limited, but inventory pressure has slightly eased. The short-term supply and demand situation may maintain a basic balance, and prices will continue to consolidate.

Market forecast:

Business analysts believe that from a supply side perspective, there is not much pressure on the market supply, equipment production is normal, and inventory continues to deplete. The enterprise has a certain price mentality, but it is not greatly affected by the improvement of downstream demand. Urea lacks sustained upward momentum, and the power to convert equipment to urea is insufficient. The output of liquid ammonia still shows rigidity. Overall, it is difficult for a large-scale market oversupply to occur in the short term.

From the demand side, there is a weak peak season for autumn fertilizer preparation, and the market is still relatively cold. Agricultural demand remains reasonable and stable, with weak demand and moderate growth. From the perspective of industrial demand, the continuous decline in downstream acrylonitrile production rate may pose a constraint on liquid ammonia. The peak season of ‘Golden September’ may be difficult to fulfill.

Taking all factors into consideration, the recent stability of liquid ammonia supply and demand is expected to be the main factor, and it is expected that the market will experience narrow fluctuations in the short term, with no further significant upward momentum in prices.