According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall market for mixed xylene will decline from November 1st to 11th, 2024. On November 1st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 5920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34% from 5900 yuan/ton on November 11th. The xylene market has fluctuated downward in this cycle, with overall supply being loose and downstream procurement enthusiasm not high. The market is generally on a wait-and-see attitude.

Cost wise: As of the 8th, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures at $70.38 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.87 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have mainly fluctuated, with little overall change. On the one hand, OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, the local economy in Asia has improved, and market panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. However, geopolitical tensions have eased, and this news is bearish for the international oil market. There is a long short game, and overall, crude oil first rose and then fell during the cycle.

Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec’s xylene prices have fluctuated. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotations have remained unchanged from the previous day. As of November 11th, East China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5900-5950 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5900-6000 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and demand support is weak

On November 11th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price being 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from November 1st. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of November 8th, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were $809-811/ton FOB Korea and $834-836/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: The crude oil market trend is weak, with limited cost support. In terms of supply, refinery inventories have remained stable and weak in the near future, and port inventories have also been running at a low level, resulting in less supply pressure. On the demand side, downstream procurement intentions are biased towards rigid demand. Overall, the market atmosphere has been relatively weak recently, and the price trend has been volatile.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has risen this week. As of November 8th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11975.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.51% compared to the beginning of this month (11350.00 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: The prices of raw materials such as sulfuric acid and fluorite have mainly increased. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department needs to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of rising prices in the fluorite market this week is strong. According to the monitoring system of Business Society, the price trend of domestic fluorite has risen this week. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3606.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.30% from the beginning of the week price of 3525 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.53%.

On the demand side: The downstream refrigerant market has seen an increase, with faster inventory consumption and a focus on on-demand procurement. Some models of devices are expected to undergo maintenance or shutdown. Overall, the market’s consumption of raw materials is still limited.

Market forecast: The market price of hydrofluoric acid is expected to rise in the near future. The market price of raw materials has risen accordingly, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable at a high level in the later period.

The recent supply and demand pattern of the acrylic acid market is an important factor affecting its price trend. This week, the supply and demand pattern of the acrylic acid market remains tight, which is one of the main reasons driving its price upward.

1、 Market price trend

As of November 5th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6850.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (6837.50 yuan/ton). The negotiation intention for the price of acrylic acid in the East China market is around 6600-6650 yuan/ton, while the price in the South China market is around 6650-6700 yuan/ton, both of which have increased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. This upward trend is consistent with the continuous push up of the previous market situation, indicating the strong momentum of the acrylic acid market.

2、 Market supply and demand situation

Supply side: Recently, some enterprises have resumed work, supplementing local sources of goods and easing the local supply shortage. However, due to the rise in prices of raw materials such as acrylic acid and propylene, the production costs of some manufacturers have increased, resulting in a certain impact on market supply. Nevertheless, the overall supply side remains stable, providing sufficient support for the market.

Demand side: The downstream industry maintains stable growth in demand for acrylic acid. With the economic recovery and the increase of industrial production activities, the demand for chemical raw materials such as acrylic acid in downstream industries is gradually increasing. However, due to price increases, some downstream companies may adopt a wait-and-see attitude and replenish as needed, rather than stockpiling in large quantities.

3、 Raw material cost

The price of propylene, the raw material for acrylic acid, has also risen recently, which has increased the production cost of acrylic acid. In order to maintain profit levels, some production enterprises have had to reduce supply or increase prices, further pushing up the market price of acrylic acid. The rise in raw material costs is also one of the important reasons for the continued upward trend of the acrylic acid market this week. As of November 5th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6843.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% compared to the beginning of this month (6785.75 yuan/ton).

4、 Market atmosphere

With the rise in acrylic acid prices and the intensification of market supply and demand contradictions, the market atmosphere has become more active. Some downstream enterprises have begun to actively stock up to cope with potential supply shortages in the future. At the same time, some investors have also begun to pay attention to the acrylic acid market and seek investment opportunities. The active market atmosphere and active participation of investors have further promoted the upward trend of the acrylic acid market.

5、 Market outlook

Price trend: Under the favorable guidance of supply and demand combined with cost, the price of acrylic acid in the market is expected to continue to rise. However, as prices continue to rise, downstream companies’ acceptance may be limited, so price increases may gradually slow down.

Market mentality: There is a strong bullish atmosphere within the market, but a wait-and-see mentality is gradually emerging downstream. Some downstream enterprises may adopt more cautious procurement strategies to cope with the risks brought by price fluctuations.

In summary, the continued upward trend in the acrylic acid market this week is the result of multiple factors working together. In the foreseeable future, the supply-demand imbalance in the acrylic acid market will continue to exist and may affect its price trend. Investors and downstream enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and price changes in order to adjust their investment strategies and procurement plans in a timely manner.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been consolidating this month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 1598 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1582 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.42%. On October 31st, the baking soda commodity index was 105.00, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 55.48% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 18.95% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is consolidating and operating. The factory price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1400-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand for purchasing, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1614 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.86% and a decrease of 36.89% compared to the same period last year.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 31st, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 7000-7400 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8400-8900 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7500-7800 yuan/ton. In early October, driven by favorable costs, there was some upward trend, but downstream demand did not show significant improvement. The filament market was sluggish in the middle and late months, and the gains at the beginning of the month were gradually consumed. The polyester filament market was not prosperous during the peak season of September and October.

In terms of cost, the recent Middle East conflict has not yet had a substantial impact on crude oil supply. Geopolitical risk premiums have been released, coupled with the return of Libyan crude oil production to the market and a bearish EIA monthly report, international oil prices have plummeted by more than 4%, dragging the polyester raw material market to continuously decline. Cost side support has collapsed, and the spread of pessimistic sentiment in the periphery has suppressed poor market buying. Prices have shown a downward trend in mid to late October. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of October 31, the average spot price of PTA in the East China region was 4881 yuan per ton.

In terms of supply and demand, the strong performance on the cost side during the National Day holiday directly pushed up the price of filament. As a result, downstream weaving companies have followed suit and increased their procurement volume to cope with price increases, leading to a significant production and sales peak in the filament market and a significant decrease in inventory levels. However, this peak in production and sales did not last long and instead consumed some future demand ahead of schedule. After a large amount of replenishment, weaving enterprises have abundant raw material inventory, but there is a lag effect in the rise of fabric prices, coupled with the price cutting behavior of end customers, which limits the increase in fabric prices. This has led to a narrow profit margin for weaving enterprises and difficulty in alleviating financial pressure. However, there has been no significant improvement in terminal demand, and the order situation in the textile market is still not optimistic. Daily production mainly relies on inventory consumption, and enterprises have a weak willingness to continue hoarding goods, resulting in limited demand growth, which constrains the market trend of filament yarn. In the second half of the year, with the decline in raw material costs, the terminal market was affected by the mentality of “buying up instead of buying down”, and the purchasing willingness was generally low, resulting in relatively insufficient confidence in the subsequent market. Under the enormous pressure of supply-demand imbalance, filament enterprises have launched the concession shipping mode twice this month. Most enterprises have failed to balance their production and sales, and polyester filament manufacturers are still under pressure. The risk of accumulating inventory has increased, further dragging down filament prices.

Overall, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the future geopolitical situation will remain uncertain, with fluctuating and uncertain impacts on the oil market. There are concerns about weak demand prospects. Against the backdrop of the off-season for consumption, the fundamentals of crude oil are still not optimistic. Overall, there is no significant positive boost to the filament market, coupled with increasing supply pressure and increased willingness of enterprises to ship, the market focus may decline. It is expected that the polyester filament market will weaken and consolidate in the short term,

According to the latest customs data, in August 2024, China imported 25000 tons of epichlorohydrin, a year-on-year decrease of 48.6%; Exported 300 tons of epichlorohydrin, an increase of 148.7% year-on-year. From January to August, China imported 178000 tons of epichlorohydrin, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%; Exported 12000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 253.4%.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market was weak and consolidated at the end of October, and the spot prices of some brands have fallen below the pre holiday level. As of October 29th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16033.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.41% compared to early October.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: At the end of October, there was limited change in the overall operating rate of PC in China. As of the time of writing, the industry average operating rate has slightly decreased from 82% in mid October to around 81%. The weekly production of PC remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons in the medium and long term, with abundant on-site supply and a profound supply-demand mismatch pattern. The loose supply pattern in October has not changed, and the good news is gradually dissipating. Manufacturers are unable to raise prices, and factory pricing is under pressure to be lowered. At the same time, the future maintenance plan is sparse, and the market supply side has a serious drag on PC prices.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic price of bisphenol A significantly decreased at the end of October. The direct raw materials of bisphenol A, phenol and acetone, have stopped falling and are expected to warm up in a narrow range. The easing of costs has not released any positive news in the short term, but has increased the production pressure of bisphenol A. The downstream production changes of the two main forces are limited, coupled with insufficient stocking heat, the profit situation of enterprises has weakened, and the consumption of bisphenol A is not good. In addition, at the beginning of the month, the load of the bisphenol A industry returned to be relatively high, and the current on-site supply of goods has increased. Overall, bisphenol A has weak support for PC costs.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. Last month, the traditional peak season “Golden September” terminal consumption situation has not yet unfolded, and the logic of weak rigid demand procurement continues until the end of October. The bidding price of Zhejiang Petrochemical has fallen at a low level, and the wait-and-see sentiment of the industry is biased. Buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods, and the circulation of goods on site is slow. The load recovery of downstream enterprises is not significant, and factories are taking goods to maintain production. At this point, the traditional peak season for PC sales this year has come to an end, and the demand side is unable to provide strong support for spot prices.

Future forecast

In the early stage, the PC market experienced a rebound in gains, but recently prices have been weak and moving forward. Although there are signs of a halt in the upstream bisphenol A market, it has rapidly declined in the early stages, with weak support on the PC cost side. The load of domestic aggregation plants continues to be high, and the supply remains high. Currently, the center of gravity of domestic PC prices has fallen below early October. Downstream peak season consumption has not been realized, and weak rigid demand stocking is difficult to drive the market. The flow of market goods is poor, and the mismatch between supply and demand is profound. At the same time, the positive sentiment of the macro commodity market has weakened, and the weak reality of the PC market has not improved. Although PC prices have fallen to the low point range of the year, industry benefits are difficult to materialize. Therefore, Shengyi Society predicts that the future PC market may face the risk of a downward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic hydrogen peroxide market fluctuated and fell in October, with a drop of nearly 5%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 773 yuan/ton. On the 28th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 733 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.17%.

Poor terminal demand, hydrogen peroxide market weakens in October

After the National Day holiday, the demand for terminal rigidity increased, and manufacturers’ purchases of hydrogen peroxide rebounded slightly, supported by positive factors. The hydrogen peroxide market saw an increase, with an overall quotation of 700-800 yuan/ton. On October 10th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Shandong region was around 700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of about 20 yuan/ton. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hebei region was 720 yuan/ton, with a price increase of about 40 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 840 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 40 yuan/ton.

In the middle of the month, the demand for terminal rigidity was weak, and manufacturers’ purchases of hydrogen peroxide were not good, with negative factors dominating. The hydrogen peroxide market was weak and fell, with an overall quotation of 700-750 yuan/ton. On October 23rd, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong remained stable at around 700 yuan/ton, while in Hebei it was 710 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 800 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 20 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hangzhou area is 950 yuan/ton, and the market remains stable.

At the end of the month, the terminal paper and printing industry market weakened, and the domestic hydrogen peroxide market showed weak upward momentum, mainly due to continuous weak bottoming out. The mainstream market price was 700-750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, and the overall market was mainly weak and oscillating.

Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that in November, the rigid demand for terminal hydrogen peroxide remains weak, and the market trend will continue to weaken in the future.

The slight surge in crude oil has pushed up the PTA market. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price in East China this week (October 21-25) was 4953 yuan/ton, an increase of 1% from the beginning of the week.

The crude oil market is affected by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and on the other hand, crude oil supply remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. Supply shortages still exist, and international crude oil prices are rising. In addition, the improvement of the local economy in Asia, the easing of market panic on demand, and the reduction of US crude oil inventories have supported the oil market. As of October 23rd, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.77 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.96 per barrel.

From the perspective of PTA itself, the rise lacks a solid foundation. In terms of supply, a long-term shutdown of a 2 million ton PTA plant in East China is planned to restart in November, and the plant will be shut down in January 2024. In mid December, a new production capacity of 2.7 million tons is planned to be put into operation in East China. The restart of PTA old facilities and the planned production of new capacity will accelerate inventory accumulation. At the same time, end buyers have not continued to purchase in large quantities, resulting in a lack of substantial positive supply and demand, and PTA prices continue to rise weakly.

The demand side is approaching the end of the traditional peak season, and the factory shipment situation has not improved yet. The operating rate of the polyester industry is around 88%. There are fewer market orders, lower market trading enthusiasm, fewer inquiries, and a strong wait-and-see attitude to consume inventory. As we enter the end of October, there is no sign of improvement in the textile terminal market, and enterprise inventory may show a trend of accumulation, leading to increased shipping pressure. New orders are scarce, foreign trade orders are few, and inventory shows a trend of accumulation.

Business analysts believe that there is uncertainty in the geopolitical situation, and concerns about crude oil supply are fluctuating. Therefore, oil prices may continue to fluctuate, providing support for PTA costs. However, the PTA factory has a low intention for equipment maintenance, and the supply of goods is still abundant. In addition, the seasonal peak season for terminal textiles is coming to an end, and there is limited room for improvement in the future. Overall, PTA supply and demand are weak, and it is expected that prices may fall.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of October 22, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises remained stable and upward at 4220 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week, with a price increase of 0.96% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the overall market focus is stable, and overall market shipments are slow. The mainstream market price is around 4200 yuan/ton, and downstream market stocking is not active, with rigid procurement being the main focus.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market price of DMF remained stable, with prices maintained at around 4200 yuan per ton. Currently, downstream demand is still acceptable, with essential purchases being the main focus. Manufacturers offer discounts and place orders, with the mainstream price range being around 4100 yuan per ton. Manufacturers offer discounts and place orders, with a strong cautious and wait-and-see attitude. Downstream essential purchases are the main focus. Currently, DMF cost support is insufficient, and inventory is running at a high level.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that DMF is expected to maintain its current trend in the short term, with mainstream prices around 4200 yuan/ton and insufficient upward momentum.