According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic butadiene production enterprises was 10412 yuan / ton on July 6, down 8.24% month on month and up 16.18% year on year. In terms of market price, the reference price of the mainstream inquiry and offer range of butadiene in East China is 9700-10000 yuan / ton; The mainstream transaction price of butadiene in central Shandong is 9950 yuan / ton. Under the centralized influence of some supply side news, the mentality of merchants has slightly strengthened. At the same time, the high cost of goods in East China has affected the strong offer intention, but the downstream rigid demand boost is limited, and some high price transactions are deadlocked.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite was generally stable, medium and strong in June. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 3316.67 yuan / ton on June 1 and 3350.00 yuan / ton on June 30, an increase of 1.00% during the month.

Supported by the stabilization of the overall rise in the price of upstream raw materials, in June, the quotation of domestic sodium pyrosulfite manufacturers stabilized as a whole. In the middle of the year, manufacturers in some regions increased the factory price slightly. In June, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price was generally stable, medium and strong. In June, the market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 3000-3550 yuan / ton, and most of the prices were concentrated around 3200-3400 yuan / ton.

In June, the overall high price of domestic soda ash rose by 2.46%, and the price of sulfur fell by 9.79% during the month. The overall high price of upstream raw materials of sodium metabisulfite fluctuated, and the rise of raw material costs slowed down. The downstream trade subjects had a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the cost support of sodium metabisulfite weakened in the future.

Business analysts believe that the rise in raw material prices has stabilized, the wait-and-see attitude of downstream trade entities has increased, and the market price of sodium pyrosulfite continues to rise in the future. It is expected that the overall domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will move forward at the current level in a narrow range in July.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 4, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 8000 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on June 30, and was 19.46% lower than that on June 1 (the ex factory price of n-butanol was 9933 yuan / ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in early July, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong stopped falling and stabilized, and the market for authentic products operated steadily. In June, under the influence of limited supply and demand transmission, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province operated downward as a whole. After entering July, the n-butanol market stopped falling and stabilized, and downstream customers replenished on bargain hunting. The demand was boosted compared with the previous period. The on-site price market was stable, and the trading atmosphere was warm. As of July 4, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7950-8050 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of n-butanol in Luxi Chemical Industry in Shandong Province was 8000 yuan / ton, The ex factory price of n-butanol in North China of Wanhua chemical is 8000 yuan / ton. The ex factory price rate of n-butanol in East and South China is high, and the reference is around 8300 yuan / ton. At present, the market news is quiet, the downstream stocking rhythm is relatively stable, and the inquiry atmosphere is peaceful.

In terms of upstream propylene, in June, the domestic propylene market in Shandong Province fell as a whole. In July, the propylene market continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, propylene was 7680.60 yuan / ton on July 1, a decrease of 4.95% compared with June 1 (8080.60 yuan / ton).

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the quoted price of n-butanol in the market is mainly stable, and the downstream is slowly improving. The n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong will continue to consolidate, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic POM market fell sharply this week, and the decline of spot prices of various brands was concentrated on Friday. As of July 1, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business club was about 20400 yuan / ton, up or down -4.67% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, Shandong formaldehyde market fell this week. Raw methanol stabilized after falling in the week, and the cost side support for formaldehyde was general. The downstream plate market is in the off-season, the enterprise load is low, the demand is weak, and the market transaction is light. It is expected that the price of formaldehyde will be dominated by weak consolidation and operation in the near future.

The upstream formaldehyde market fell, and POM cost side support weakened. In terms of industry load, POM enterprises had maintenance production lines before, but the on-site supply was abundant, and the inventory of manufacturers and midstream was high. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is also in the off-season mode, and the operating rate is gradually narrowed due to profit or order problems. Due to the sharp drop in spot prices on Friday, terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing, mainly taking small orders, and have a heavy wait-and-see mood. The main bad news on the floor was the high inventory caused by insufficient demand. The mentality of merchants was general, and the offer was mainly reduced with the enterprises.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market fell sharply this week, the upstream formaldehyde market fell, and the cost support of POM weakened. The load of POM industry tends to be high and stable, and the supply side remains abundant. The consumption of downstream enterprises is weak, and there is no large-scale replenishment in procurement. It is expected that in the short term, the POM price may fall due to the inventory of Gaozhu and give priority to profit.

As of June 28, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 4033.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 20.92% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 43.19% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, and an increase of 45.78% compared with the same period last year, according to the bulk list data of business society.

In June, the market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid fell. In the first half of the month, the cost side support was acceptable, the downstream procurement was on demand, the market transactions were orderly, the market was stable and wait-and-see operation, and the high-end prices of some enterprises were reduced. In the second half of the month, the price of main raw material methanol gradually fell, the cost support gradually weakened, the supply side was mainly stable, there were many off-season downstream, the purchase of formic acid was not followed up enough, the demand side performance was poor, the shipment of enterprises was under pressure, the market inquiry and transaction were light, and the price of 85% formic acid continued to weaken.

Cost: upstream caustic soda, caustic soda price consolidation operation, downstream on-demand procurement, comprehensive estimation of the later stage or consolidation; The upstream liquid ammonia Market stabilized in Shandong on June 28; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price was temporarily stable on June 28; For upstream methanol, according to the bulk list data of the business society, on June 27, the reference price of methanol was 2625.00, up 0.29% compared with June 1 (2617.50).

According to the formic acid analysts of business club, the current price of main raw material methanol is weak, the cost side support is declining, and the market atmosphere is light. It is expected that the formic acid market may be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of June 29, the average price of domestic general transparent premium PMMA was 16925.00 yuan / ton. In May, PMMA maintained a stable operation, with a price increase of 1.8% compared with the beginning of the month. In May, the PMMA market rose in a narrow range, and the market operated stronger.

In the first ten days of June, the average price of PMMA, a domestic general transparent grade premium product, was 16925.00 yuan / ton. The overall market operated smoothly and the price change was not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton. Merchants actively shipped goods to give away profits. Compared with last week, the price remained unchanged. The price of PMMA was mainly stable, the overall supply and demand were balanced, and the immediate need for procurement was the main thing. At present, the focus of negotiation was stable and the supply side was normal.

In the middle of June, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 16875.00 yuan / ton. The overall market operated smoothly and the price change was not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton. Merchants actively shipped goods to give up profits. Compared with the price last week, the price of PMMA remained unchanged. The overall supply and demand were balanced. It was just needed to purchase. At present, the focus of negotiation was stable and the supply side was normal.

Rubber and plastic index: on June 23, the rubber and plastic index was 781 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 26.32% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (March 14, 2012), and up 47.92% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In late June, the average price of PMMA, a domestic general transparent premium product, was 16925.00 yuan / ton. The overall market operated smoothly, and the price change was not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton. Merchants actively shipped and gave orders for profits. Compared with the price last week, the price of PMMA remained unchanged. The overall supply and demand were balanced, and just needed to be purchased. At present, the focus of negotiation was stable, the supply side was normal, and the rubber and plastic index: on June 17, the rubber and plastic index was 800 points, It was the same as yesterday, 24.53% lower than the highest point 1060 in the cycle (March 14, 2012), and 51.52% higher than the lowest point 528 on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Rubber and plastic index: on June 28, the rubber and plastic index was 770 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 27.36% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (March 14, 2012), and up 45.83% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

According to the PMMA analyst of business agency, the white carbon black market is expected to run smoothly in July, with a small fluctuation range. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

On June 28, the price trend of domestic fluorite was temporarily stable. The average price of domestic fluorite was 2661.11 yuan / ton. The fluorite trading and investment in the site was general. The mine was generally started under the influence of environmental supervision. The fluorite raw ore price remained high, and the flotation cost of the concentrator was still supported. However, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market remained low. The recent commencement of fluorite units in the North was relatively normal, and the site supply was slightly tight, so the fluorite price in the site was temporarily stable. The mainstream price of fluorite in the field negotiation is stable. The delivery price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2650-2750 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2600-2750 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2650-2750 yuan / ton. The market trend of downstream refrigerants is low, and the field reaction is that the supply of fluorite is tight. It is expected that the domestic fluorite price trend will be stable temporarily.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the mainstream market of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in East China market showed a shock trend of continuous decline and continuous rebound in that week (20th-26th): the mainstream market in the domestic market reported about 12700 yuan / ton on the 20th and 12776 yuan / ton on the 26th, up 0.6%. Among them, the highest weekly price was 12776 yuan / ton on the 26th, and the lowest was 12510 yuan / ton on the 22nd, with a maximum amplitude of 2.13%.

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices since June 2022

From the macro perspective of industrial analysis, on June 24, the price of international crude oil futures rebounded. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $107.62/barrel, up US $3.35 or 3.2%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $113.12/barrel, up US $3.07 or 2.8%. The market has returned to fundamentals, and the supply price of crude oil is under tight support. However, affected by the expectation of interest rate hikes by many central banks across the country, the market is worried about the economic recession, and the oil price is still fluctuating in the range.

Figure 4: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market in 2022

Supply side: the Southeast Asian production area has a large supply. The output of Yunnan production area in China has increased. Although the output of Hainan has not been fully cut, the cutting rate has continued to increase and the output has increased. The local thick latex price has continued to be suppressed. The global supply volume is unfavorable to the price support of raw rubber. Inventory: Currently, the import volume is not large, and the domestic inventory is reduced by a small margin. Demand side: the operating rate of the enterprise has not increased significantly. It is reported that the operating rate of all steel tires decreased on a weekly basis last week, while that of semi steel tires rebounded. The inventory of finished tires is high, and the purchase of raw rubber has not been greatly improved; The production and sales volume of downstream vehicles increased month on month: according to the data released by the passenger Federation, 416000 passenger vehicles were retailed from June 13 to 19, a year-on-year increase of 39%, a month on week increase of 19%, a year-on-year increase of 55%, and the increase in sales volume consumed a certain amount of tire inventory; Except for tires, the overall construction of Tianjiao products enterprises is generally started at present.

Future forecast: at present, the domestic and foreign supply side continues to increase, and the operating rate of downstream manufacturers is general. However, the domestic automobile promotion policy has boosted the natural rubber futures, and the production and sales have rebounded month on month. It is expected that the natural rubber market is more likely to continue to fluctuate in the range.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of June 24, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-class power product, was 155000 yuan / ton. The next week, lithium iron phosphate was running smoothly. The price fluctuation range was not large. You Gang mainly needed to purchase. The purchasing atmosphere was general. The overall market was running smoothly. At present, the manufacturer’s supply of goods was still tight, and the supply side was obviously insufficient. It was mainly arranged and delivered by contract customers. The number of new orders was limited, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere was acceptable, The price remains at a high level, and the upstream is still at a high level. The price continues to rise. The cost pressure of lithium iron phosphate remains. At present, the mainstream price range is 155000-160000 yuan / ton.

Upstream lithium carbonate: as of June 23, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise steadily this week. On June 23, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 460000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.66% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 19, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 457000 yuan / ton). On June 23, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 478000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.63% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 19, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 475000 yuan / ton).

Chemical commodity index: on June 24, the chemical index was 1174 points, down 7 points from yesterday, down 16.14% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 96.32% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

According to the analysts of business club, the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate in the short term is dominated, and the fluctuation range is limited. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the domestic cocoon and silk market price continued to rise this week (6.20-6.24), maintaining a strong pattern. As of June 23, the average price of dried cocoons was 137000 yuan / ton, up 1.48% from the beginning of the week and down 1.79% year-on-year. The average market price of raw silk was 417962.50 yuan / ton, up 0.60% from the beginning of the week and down 0.49% year-on-year.

This week, the prices of raw silk contracts on the electronic disk continued to rise, breaking the previous high in June. In the spot market, the worrying situation of the supply side has stimulated the bullish expectation of the market, and the silk reeling enterprises have strengthened their price support and price increase behavior. However, the downstream domestic purchase intention is still general, and the spot price is still generally stable.

It is necessary to pay attention to the flood situation in Guangxi in the near future. From May to June, there were many torrential rains in many places in Guangxi, with the highest rainfall in the same period in 43 years. There were heavy rains in 77 towns and townships in 18 counties (districts) of 7 cities in the region. Many places, including Hechi, Baise and Liuzhou, were the key areas for cocoon production in the region. The flood disaster had a great impact on local daily life and mulberry breeding. Houses and mulberry gardens were flooded, and the quality and quantity of cocoons were expected to be greatly damaged, At the same time, the follow-up post disaster reconstruction work also needs to spend a lot of time and energy. It can be predicted that the cocoon output will decline to a certain extent compared with the same period.

After the downturn affected by the epidemic in the second quarter, the recovery level of the downstream demand side is still worrying. Although production and sales have recovered since June, and terminal construction has also rebounded, the peak demand season has passed, and the recovery height of terminal demand in the fourth quarter may still be limited. Due to the limited height of recovery under expectation, on the premise that the logic of the front-end cost side cannot be reversed, there is a risk that the downstream demand will not be able to follow at a certain time point. At that time, the negative feedback of the industry may lead to a more obvious weakening of raw silk prices. Therefore, it is necessary to consider whether the enthusiasm of terminal goods preparation will be hit by the rising cost price. At that time, negative price feedback may occur, resulting in the callback of raw silk price.

According to the analysts of the business agency, the national spring cocoon collection and drying work is basically coming to an end, the cocoon is rising, and the raw silk is rising. The trend of cocoon and silk is strong, and the direction has not changed in the recent period. The overall bullish expectation of the future market is large. At present, the overall trend continues to be dominated by short-term high-level adjustment. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand in the later period can continue to be significantly improved.