With the gradual withdrawal of low-cost viscose staple fiber supply from the market, the average price of viscose staple fiber used by yarn mills has reached 15000 yuan / ton. Due to the rising cost of raw materials, most yarn mills have recently started to increase the transaction price of cotton yarn by 50-200 yuan / ton. The price of cotton yarn is at a high level. As of June 22, 2022, the average ex factory price of (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) is 19233 yuan / ton, which is steadily rising, up 60 yuan / ton from yesterday’s price.

The upstream raw material viscose staple fiber market is stable, the cost is supported, the price is high, and the manufacturer’s quotation is about 16000; The demand for textile terminals continues to be flat, with average trading and investment. Due to the rapid rise in the price of viscose staple fiber, the rise in various varieties of yarn is limited. At the same time, the operating rate of circular mills and grey cloth mills has always remained low, and some yarn factories have limited or stopped production. Business analysts predict that the power of cotton yarn price rise is insufficient, or the high level is stable.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, in mid June (11-20), the mainstream market of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in East China market showed a trend of continuous decline first and then continuous weak fluctuation: the mainstream market in the domestic market was about 13090 yuan / ton on the 11th and 12700 yuan / ton on the 20th, a decrease of 2.98%. Among them, the highest price in this ten day period is 13090 yuan / ton on the 11th, and the lowest price is 12700 yuan / ton on the 20th.

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices since June 2022

On the macro level, on June 20, the price of international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $108.12/barrel, an increase of US $0.13 or 0.12%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $114.13/barrel, up US $1.01 or 0.89%. Oil prices rebounded slightly on Monday, the market gradually returned to rationality, and tight supply still dominated, overshadowing the impact of the slowdown in global economic growth.

Figure 4: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market in 2022

Supply side: Southeast Asia has a large amount of supply. The rubber tapping in Yunnan is normal, and the output increases. The output in Hainan is increasing gradually, but not significantly. In addition, the local thick latex price continues to be suppressed, the water price difference between Yunnan and Hainan is narrowed, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is generally weaker. Inventory: Currently, the import volume is not large, and the domestic inventory is reduced by a small margin. Demand side: the data shows that the operating rate of China’s all steel tire sample enterprises last week was 61.70%, with a month on month increase of 14.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.77%. Although the enterprises started relatively well in the middle of the year, the order volume was limited, the finished product inventory was high, and the purchase volume of raw rubber had not been greatly improved; The production and sales volume of downstream vehicles increased month on month, which will consume a certain amount of tire inventory, but the continuous growth is not strong; The overall product enterprises started generally, and the de stocking of products may be driven, but the sustainability is still not very optimistic.

Future forecast: the macro policy is good, the consumption policy is frequent, but there is still a certain time lag between the implementation and acceptance, and the goods circulation conditions are improved; The output of new rubber increased, the import volume was small, and the spot inventory of natural rubber continued to be low; The inventory of finished tire products is high, mainly consumed in the short term, the operating rate of the enterprise is general, and the purchase of raw materials is limited. It is expected that with the continuous increase of production and sluggish downstream demand, the short-term natural rubber shock is likely to be weak.

Cobalt prices fell slowly this week

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the decline of cobalt Market slowed down this week, and the cobalt price fell violently. As of June 20, the cobalt price was 426800 yuan / ton, down 1.79% from 434600 yuan / ton on June 12 last week; Compared with the cobalt price of 445500 yuan / ton on June 1, it fell by 4.20%. Cobalt prices fell slightly this week, and the decline of cobalt Market slowed down.

Weekly rise and fall chart of cobalt price

It can be seen from the weekly trend chart of cobalt price of business club that since March, the cobalt price has fallen sharply, and the cobalt market has continued to weaken. Since June, the weekly rise and fall of cobalt price has narrowed significantly, the decline of cobalt price has slowed down, and the cobalt market has stabilized.

Price rise and fall of lithium battery

It can be seen from the price rise and fall of the lithium battery sector of the business club that in recent January, the products in the lithium battery sector have obviously stopped falling and rising, the prices of lithium related products such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have stopped falling and rising, the decline of nickel and cobalt prices has narrowed, the market of new energy vehicles has warmed up, the demand for lithium batteries has risen, and the prices of related products in the lithium battery sector have obviously stopped falling and rising.

Market Overview

Baijiaxin, a data analyst of the business agency, believes that with the continuous promotion of the resumption of work and production, the production and sales of the new energy automobile industry chain have risen, the decline of lithium battery related products has stopped and the demand of the cobalt market has recovered. The international cobalt price has fallen sharply, the supply of cobalt raw materials is sufficient, the oversupply of cobalt in the cobalt market has not fundamentally changed, and the room for cobalt price rise is limited. Generally speaking, the demand of cobalt market recovers, the decline of cobalt price slows down, and it is expected that the volatility of cobalt price will stabilize in the future.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on June 17 was 97.15, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.88% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 17.20% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity prices: according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market in that week (June 13-17) was stable at about 15900 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s production is normal and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand is general, and the enterprise has great shipping pressure.

Industry chain: according to the data of business agency, the mainstream market of upstream raw material acrylonitrile fell from about 11280 yuan / ton to 11080 yuan / ton in the week from June 13 to 17. The price of acrylonitrile continued to be low, and the price of raw material propylene rebounded slightly to 7996 yuan / ton. However, there is still great pressure on the market supply side, and the market is dominated by low-cost goods. At present, the mainstream market offer in East China is 10700~11600 yuan / ton of bulk water; The average price of raw acrylic acid in East China in the current week was 13933.33 yuan / ton, down 1.18% compared with the price on Monday (13th). The acrylic acid market was weak this week. Recently, the price of raw material propylene rose and weakened. There was some support on the cost side. The production enterprises at the supply side were mainly stable in unit load. The downstream buying was on demand. The demand side showed light performance. The market atmosphere was stalemate, the transaction atmosphere was general, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be consolidated and operated stably in the short term.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 6306 yuan / ton on June 13, and 6362 yuan / ton on June 17, a weekly drop of 0.89%. Since the beginning of June, the domestic LNG market price has fluctuated downward, down 3.32% so far, and the market is weak.

Future forecast: the cost of raw materials continues to weaken, the downstream demand is flat, the market spot inventory is sufficient, and the transaction is average. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market will remain stable in the future, supplemented by small adjustments.

According to Reuters, on June 14 local time, OPEC representatives and industry insiders said that the growth of global oil demand will slow down in 2023 because the soaring crude oil and fuel prices will push up inflation and drag down global economic growth.

It is reported that OPEC sources predict that the oil demand will increase by 2million barrels per day or less in 2023, and the oil production organization previously predicted that the demand will increase by 3.36 million barrels per day in 2022. In the first forecast released in july2021, OPEC initially predicted that the demand growth in 2022 would be 3.28 million barrels per day, then raised it to more than 4million barrels per day, and then lowered it to 3.36 million barrels per day.

At present, OPEC is paying attention to the signs that high fuel prices lead to a decline in oil demand. The damage to demand may affect oil use in the coming months. A senior industry figure believes that the oil price of $120 per barrel is destroying demand, and this has already happened.

It is reported that the global fuel consumption has rebounded from the sharp decline caused by the COVID-19 in 2020. Even if the crude oil price reaches a record high, this year’s fuel consumption will still exceed the level in 2019. However, the high oil price has begun to drag down the economic growth expectation in 2022 and boost the economic growth slowdown expectation in 2023.

Data show that OPEC’s oil production fell by 176000 barrels per day to 28.51 million barrels per day in May, failing to meet the growth target stipulated in the OPEC + agreement. Although OPEC + agreed to accelerate the increase of oil production at the beginning of this month, the oil production of many member states is close to full capacity, and they are unable to further increase production. The group may not be able to achieve its goal of cooling the oil market.

The Iranian foreign ministry said on the 13th that the measures taken by Iran to suspend the implementation of some provisions of the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue were all “reversible”. Iran recently shut down some monitoring equipment only to stop some “voluntary measures” and still abide by the relevant safeguards agreement reached with the International Atomic Energy Agency. According to Agence France Presse, this statement means that it is still possible for the United States and Iran to finally reach an agreement on the nuclear issue, when Iran will be able to resume crude oil exports.

Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy announced on the 14th that it would sell the fourth batch of 45million barrels of strategic crude oil reserves to reduce oil prices. At the same time, the US Treasury Department also announced the bid winner of the public sale of strategic crude oil reserves on May 24. This batch of crude oil is expected to be put on the market between June 15 and July 31.

UBS group said on the 14th that the low inventory, the reduction of surplus capacity and the risk that supply growth lags behind demand growth in the coming months have pushed up its oil price expectations. UBS group predicts that the Brent crude oil futures price at the end of September this year is expected to be $130 per barrel, and that at the end of December this year is expected to be $125 per barrel, compared with the previous forecast of $115 per barrel.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 15, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 3300 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.45% over the previous day.

The coking coal price is generally stable and strong, and the production in the production area is good. At present, the inventory in the plant is generally low, and the downstream purchase demand is general. In a comprehensive view, the coking coal market is generally strong.

Today, the second round of increase in the coke market fell to the ground, with a cumulative increase of 300 yuan / ton. At present, the sales situation of coking enterprises is good, the market is active in inquiring about goods, and the coke inventory in the plant continues to be low, namely production and sales. At present, there are still some active production restriction enterprises affected by profits, and the coke supply is slightly tight. In terms of downstream steel mills, the demand for replenishment of steel mills is good, the overall inventory is low, and replenishment of steel mills is slightly difficult. With the improvement of downstream demand, the supply of coke is tight and the mentality of coke enterprises is strengthened. It is expected that the coke market will maintain a stable, medium and strong operation in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the coke inventory in all links, the production restriction of coke enterprises, the price trend of coke coal and the sales of finished products in the downstream.

On June 14, the mainstream quotation range of 1\tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 242500-246500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 244500 yuan / ton, down 8250 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

On the 14th, Shanghai tin fell. In the morning, the non-ferrous metal market was generally under pressure, with Shanghai tin and Shanghai nickel leading the decline. The main reason was that the US dollar index continued to soar last night, rising to the highest point in nearly 20 years. The sharp fall in US stocks seriously affected the market mentality. Today, the non-ferrous market is generally under pressure, and the affected price of Shanghai tin has been significantly lowered. In terms of fundamentals, on the evening of the 13th, Tin Industry Co., Ltd. announced that it would carry out shutdown and overhaul for about 50 days on the 16th, which is expected to affect a large domestic production. However, the good news has been basically digested because the market has released the news of shutdown in the early stage. In the downstream, the overall demand performance is average, and the overall market performance is weak. Therefore, the trend of tin price today is greatly affected by the futures market, and it is expected that the future market will remain weak.

This week, the domestic propane Market returned to weakness, and the price of Shandong market fluctuated and fell significantly. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6445.75 yuan / ton on June 6, and 6350.75 yuan / ton on June 13, with a decline of 1.63% in the week, up 47.84% compared with the same period last year.

As of June 13, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, June 13th

South China, 61000-6200 yuan / ton

North China, 6400-6500 yuan / ton

Shandong region, 6250-6350 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 6500-6700 yuan / ton

After entering this week, the trend of domestic propane Market returned to weakness. Shandong propane market only rose individually on the 6th, and then entered the horizontal consolidation stage until the price fell on the 13th, with a conspicuous range. Due to the weakening of international crude oil, the benefits brought about by the cost are limited, and the propane Market follows the weakness. In addition, due to the off-season factors, the terminal demand is limited, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the manufacturers mainly sell goods at a profit, resulting in a significant decline in prices.

Saudi Aramco announced in June 2022 that both propylene and butane fell. Propane was 750 dollars / ton, down 100 dollars / ton compared with the previous month; Butane is 750 dollars / ton, down 110 dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

Although the current international crude oil price fluctuates downward, the propane market is still supported by the relatively high price and the cost. However, the demand is weak, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is limited, the market trading and investment atmosphere is general, and the manufacturers mainly sell goods at a profit. It is expected that the market price of propane will continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business club, the nickel price mainly fell this week. As of June 10, the spot nickel price was 219066.67 yuan / ton, down 3.64% from 227333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 64.65% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly fluctuation chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the business club, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price has risen by 6 and fell by 6, and the recent trend of nickel price has mainly fluctuated in a wide range.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

The nickel market lacks obvious contradiction points in the short term. It fluctuates with other metals in rhythm. Logically, the supply rebounds and the demand is weak as a whole. The contradiction of resource shortage is gradually alleviated. Especially in the new energy field, with the increase of the supply of intermediate products, the new energy demand of nickel beans is gradually weakened. The terminal alloy and electroplating industries replenished the inventory, and the output of stainless steel in May exceeded the expectation, and the consumption of electrolytic nickel improved. However, in June, some steel mills reduced production and maintenance, and the demand for nickel plates is expected to decline. In the medium and long term, with the gradual production and release of nickel metal production capacity in Indonesia, nickel metal surplus will be realized gradually. It is expected that there will be a qualitative change in nickel metal balance in the third quarter. Nickel price still maintained a wide fluctuation trend.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of June 9, the price of pet water bottle level pet in this week was stable, medium and strong. At present, the average price is 9210 yuan / ton. The overall market is running smoothly. Compared with the price in the same period of last week, it has an upward trend. The overall market supply and demand is balanced, and the logistics delivery is smooth.

This week, the domestic pet price was mainly stable, the price fluctuation was not obvious, and there was a narrow upward trend. The manufacturer shipped actively, the logistics was smooth, the operating rate was normal, and the market transaction atmosphere was general. At present, the overall negotiation atmosphere was ok, the downstream readiness to prepare goods was general, and the cost was lack of support. At present, the mainstream price was about 8700 yuan / ton. This week, the price rose slightly, and it maintained a strong operation in the short term.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: on June 8, the rubber and plastic index was 806 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 23.96% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (March 14, 2012), and up 52.65% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Pet analysts of business agency believe that the pet market is expected to be stable, medium and strong in the short term. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business club, obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).