According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the rare earth market price index rose in September, and the domestic light and heavy rare earth market prices all rose. The rare earth index was 516 points on September 27, up 23 points from 493 points on the first day, a decrease of 48.76% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 90.41% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and metallic praseodymium neodymium in China have all increased. As of the end of the month, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 520000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.48%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 640000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.49%; The price of neodymium oxide is 532500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.41%; The price of neodymium metal is 660000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.12%; The price of metal praseodymium is 670000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.69%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 527500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.94%.

In early September, the domestic light rare earth market showed an upward trend. Due to the impact of regional rainfall weather, some rare earth mining enterprises were restricted in production, and some rare earth manufacturers took the initiative to reduce production, which further slowed down the growth rate of spot inventory in the market. Separation plants and metal plants in Sichuan region will have varying degrees of production reduction and shutdown behavior, and the price trend of light rare earth market will rise due to supply reduction. However, in the middle of the year, downstream resistance has intensified, and the procurement of inquiries has come to an end. In addition, downstream magnetic material enterprises have reduced new orders, intensified upstream and downstream competition, and the domestic light rare earth market price trend has remained stable. Overall, the light rare earth market trend in September has slightly increased.

The domestic market trend of heavy rare earth dysprosium series has increased, with the price of dysprosium oxide reaching 2.69 million yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 8.32% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.585 million yuan/ton, an increase of 6.38% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium metal was 33.35 million yuan/ton, an increase of 6.35% compared to the beginning of the month; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly increasing, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 8.5 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium reaching 10.7 million yuan/ton. In September, the trend of the heavy rare earth market rose, with an increase in inquiries and a tightening of spot supply. Affected by a slight increase in demand, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices rose. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream magnetic material companies are nearing the end of stocking, and the price increase in the heavy rare earth market is slowing down. The recent news of border closures in Myanmar has continued, providing market support for future rare earth prices and maintaining high prices in the heavy rare earth market. As the traditional peak season of “Golden Nine Silver Ten” approaches, the demand for new energy vehicles, industrial robots and other terminals is also constantly increasing. The demand is still positive, and there is still support for the domestic heavy rare earth market. Positive factors support the upward trend of domestic heavy rare earth prices.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 843000 and 846000 units respectively in August, with a month on month increase of 4.7% and 8.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 22% and 27%, respectively; From January to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 5.434 million and 5.374 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 36.9% and 39.2%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, coupled with the opening of the Golden Nine Silver Ten Year Plan, the demand for new energy has increased, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices. The price trend of the domestic heavy rare earth market has slightly increased.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, the export of rare earth and its products reached 9618 tons in August, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; From January to August, the cumulative export of rare earth and its products reached 79083 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. China’s rare earth commodity export volume increased, which to some extent supported the rare earth market prices.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources have issued the second batch of total control indicators for rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2023. The total control indicators for the second batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2023 are 120000 tons and 115000 tons, respectively. In 2023, the total control index of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 240000 tons and 230000 tons, respectively, an increase of 14.3% and 13.9% compared with 2022. The increase of mining output will correspondingly suppress the growth of rare earth market.

Future Market Forecast: As the holiday approaches, procurement has come to an end, and transportation has been affected to some extent. It is expected that the domestic rare earth market price trend will remain stable in the short term, with a lack of primary and renewable supply sources in the medium to long term. Dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, The global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow, and we are optimistic about the market prices of the rare earth industry for the long term.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China fell in September. On the first day, the market reported around 14100 yuan/ton, and on the 28th, it reported around 13710 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 2.77%. This month, the prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid have increased, and the cost of polyacrylamide has increased. However, enterprises in the main production area are operating normally, and the market has abundant spot supply. Downstream demand has not increased, and the current mainstream market of polyacrylamide is still weak and organized.

Raw material acrylonitrile: The acrylonitrile market continued to rise in September. As of September 28th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9825 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.71% from 9037 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The high price of raw material propylene is organized, and the cost of acrylonitrile is supported; ABS, one of the main downstream industries, maintains a high level of construction, and the demand for acrylonitrile forms support; The start of acrylonitrile production in September slightly decreased compared to August, and there was no pressure on acrylonitrile inventory. The acrylonitrile market continued to rise.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the acrylic acid market rose first and then fell in September, with a slight overall increase. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material propylene in the market fluctuated, and cost support was acceptable. Some enterprises experienced fluctuations in their equipment, resulting in a decrease in the utilization rate of production capacity in the acrylic acid industry, supporting market sentiment. Downstream inquiries and procurement continued to be in high demand. The focus of negotiations in the acrylic acid market was mainly on stability, and some enterprises increased their prices based on their own situation. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material propylene slightly decreased, with limited cost support. Some enterprise installations have restarted, and the market’s spot supply has increased. Downstream inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and high-end price negotiations in the market are slightly weak. Holders are actively shipping, and the acrylic acid market atmosphere is weak.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the Shandong liquefied gas civilian market rose first and then stabilized in September, with a slight decline at the end of the month. In early September, the liquefied gas market showed a significant upward trend. In early September, the CP surge was introduced, coupled with several consecutive increases in crude oil prices during the week. With strong support from the news, there was also a small amount of inventory on the market, and upstream goods were flowing smoothly. The liquefied gas market actively pushed up. The demand side is steadily following up, the weather is gradually turning cold, and the demand for civilian combustion is expected to increase. The demand for chemical industry is also following up in a golden and silver atmosphere. Subsequently, the market entered a period of volatility and decline, with liquefied gas prices rising to high levels. Downstream resistance was evident, and upstream began to give up profits and sell goods. In late September, there was an increase in enthusiasm for upstream cargo in the liquefied gas market, coupled with an increase in port supply and an increase in supply. In order to stimulate cargo movement, refinery prices fell.

Future forecast: In September, the overall focus of raw material cost prices will shift upwards, the overall fuel market will rise, and the cost of polyacrylamide will theoretically increase. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production area have normal production and sufficient market supply; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, and market transactions are stable. The actual transaction changes have not yet been significantly followed up. It is expected to remain stable and dominant in the short term.

This week (9.15-9.22), the nitrile rubber market rose first and then fell, with a high point falling back. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 22, the price of nitrile rubber was 15525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from the high point of 15650 yuan/ton in the cycle, and remained unchanged on Friday. The prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile have slightly increased, while the cost of nitrile rubber has slightly increased; Downstream inquiries are often made on demand, resulting in relatively flat market transactions. Recently, nitrile rubber plants such as Jinpu and Arantai Rubber have restarted, and the market supply has slightly increased compared to the previous period. The overall stability of enterprise quotations and slight adjustments in merchant quotations. As of September 22, the mainstream market report for Lanhua Nitrile 3305 in East China was 15100~15300 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Sibul nitrile 3365 is 14500~14700 yuan/ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 mainstream reported at 15900~16100 yuan/ton.

This week (September 15th to September 22nd), the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile slightly increased, while the cost of nitrile rubber increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 22, the price of butadiene was 8747 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01% from Friday’s 8660 yuan/ton; As of September 22nd, the price of acrylonitrile has increased by 1.21% from Monday’s 9300 yuan/ton at 9412 yuan/ton.

This week (9.15-9.22), the construction of domestic nitrile rubber plants is temporarily stable.

In the domestic nitrile rubber market, some brands have tight supply and strong prices, but downstream rubber product industries such as rubber hoses and automotive parts often purchase nitrile rubber on demand, resulting in a slightly stagnant trading atmosphere on the market.

Future forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current supply of nitrile rubber is temporarily stable, and with the rise of nitrile prices, downstream inquiries are more on demand. It is expected that the nitrile rubber market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of September 21, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was set at 8850 yuan/ton. Compared with September 15, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 8766 yuan/ton), the price increased by 86 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.95%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (9.15-9.21), the overall domestic butanone market continued to rise slightly. Jin Jiulai is approaching, and the domestic butanone market as a whole is experiencing a warming up. Entering this week, the main butanone factories have performed well in exports, with tight supply on the butanone market and relatively low pressure on the supply side. In terms of cost, recently, the cost side of butanone has been operating steadily and strongly. Therefore, with the support of both the supply and demand side and the cost side, the focus of the butanone market continues to move slightly towards the high-end, with an upward trend of around 100-200 yuan/ton in the market. As of September 21st, the domestic market price of butanone is around 8700-9000 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the aftermarket of butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere on the butanone exchange is mild, and downstream stocks are steadily prepared before the holiday. The butanone industry has a good mentality, and the overall market support is still good. The butanone data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mostly operate with high stability, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 20th, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 219000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.25% compared to last Friday (September 15th) and a decrease of 54.53% compared to the same period last year.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market has continued to decline. Recently, the spodumene concentrate market has been operating in a weak state, with a decline in the lithium carbonate market, weakened cost support, insufficient follow-up of downstream demand, and cautious procurement. The market trading atmosphere is light, and transactions are mainly long-term orders. The focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is weakening.

Upstream lithium carbonate: The market for industrial grade lithium carbonate has recently declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on September 19th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 180000.00, a decrease of 14.29% compared to September 1st (210000.00), weakening support for the lithium hydroxide market.

Business Society Lithium Hydroxide Analysts believe that the upstream lithium carbonate market is currently operating in a weak state, with insufficient support for the lithium hydroxide market. In addition, the market demand is weak, and it is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may be in a weak state, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

In mid September, the domestic ABS market continued to rise, with spot prices rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 19th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12125 yuan/ton, a+11.75% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side, the ABS industry has recently experienced a high load, with a total operating rate of over 91%. Compared to the previous period, there has been a narrow correction, and there is generally ample supply of goods on the market. However, the inventory position has significantly decreased, so the supply side has a strong support for the spot market.

In terms of raw materials: In mid September, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials was strong. The acrylonitrile market is relatively strong at a high level. Downstream devices in China are resuming work, with significant demand driven demand. Upstream goods are flowing smoothly, inventory has decreased to a low level, and propylene prices are driving up in line with the trend. Crude oil prices continue to strengthen, with stronger news support, boosting market confidence.

The price of butadiene also rose at a high level in the middle of the year. The downstream synthetic rubber market remains buoyant, with tight expectations for the supply of butadiene rubber, driving bullish sentiment in the spot market. Stable demand supports the price of butadiene. Sinopec’s factory prices continue to rise, and some businesses are reluctant to sell. The spot supply level is generally abundant, and it is expected that the butadiene market will enter a consolidation stage in the short term.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market has been rising recently. The international oil price has risen, the pure benzene market has followed suit, and cost support is good. The inventory of styrene ports in East China continues to be low. As the Double Festival holiday approaches, downstream companies are actively stocking up, market transactions are positive, and the styrene market is rising.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, have shown a significant increase in stocking enthusiasm. Under the traditional demand peak season market, coupled with macroeconomic improvement, buyers have a certain upward mentality. Although the acceptance level of manufacturers has been affected after the price increase of ABS, the pre holiday stocking demand has been released, and the overall trading trend remains hot.

Future Market Forecast

In mid September, the upstream three materials of ABS strengthened, providing strong support for the cost side of ABS. Petrochemical plants are operating at a high level, with smooth shipments and significant market inventory digestion. The demand side support is relatively strong, and trading has fully entered the traditional consumption peak season and pre holiday stocking market. It is expected that the ABS market will continue to rise at a high level in the short term.

Product name: PVC

Latest price: 6260 yuan/ton

Key points of analysis: On September 18th, the PVC spot market fell, and the trading atmosphere on the market was light. In terms of raw materials, the factory prices of upstream calcium carbide have decreased. In terms of futures, futures opened higher and closed lower today. Overall, the trading sentiment in the PVC spot market is poor, with some manufacturers holding prices on the sidelines, while downstream and traders are cautious in purchasing. The overall transaction situation is average.

Prediction: In the short term, the PVC spot market may continue to fluctuate slightly.

Product name: Potassium chloride (imported)

Latest price (September 15th): 3050 yuan/ton

On September 15th, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride slightly decreased, dropping by 25 yuan/ton or 0.81% compared to September 14th. At present, the port’s 62% self raised price of white potassium is around 2800-2900 yuan/ton; The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 3000 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2800 yuan/ton. The arrival price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is around 2700 yuan/ton. The downstream potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate markets have stabilized at high levels, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is average.

In the future, domestic potassium chloride prices may fluctuate slightly and fall, with consolidation being the main trend. The average import market price of potassium chloride is around 3000 yuan/ton.

The price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 14th, the price of DOTP was 11600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11% compared to September 7th, when the price of DOTP was 11850 yuan/ton. The price of isooctanol has decreased, PTA prices have fluctuated and increased, raw material cost support has weakened, downstream PVC market has declined, cost support has weakened, and demand for plasticizers has decreased. This week, the price of plasticizer DOTP has fluctuated and decreased.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on September 14th was 12200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.72% compared to the price of 12940 yuan/ton on September 7th. The domestic isooctanol plant has started operation and restarted, with sufficient supply of isooctanol. The price of raw material propylene has decreased, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen.

PTA prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PTA price on September 14th was 6386 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.20% compared to the PTA price of 6188.18 yuan/ton on September 7th. The PTA device unexpectedly reduced its load, the market supply stage tightened, the price of raw material acetic acid skyrocketed, PX prices fluctuated and increased, and the cost of PTA raw materials increased; With the arrival of the golden nine silver ten, downstream polyester demand has increased, and PTA demand has rebounded. The cost of raw materials has increased, and DOTP cost support still exists.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in terms of raw materials, the prices of isooctanol fluctuate and fall, PTA prices fluctuate and rise, and the cost support for plasticizer products DOTP decreases; In terms of demand, the trading sentiment in the PVC spot market is poor, and actual purchases are cautious. Downstream buyers are more wait-and-see, with on-demand purchases being the main focus. PVC prices have fluctuated and fallen, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has decreased. The support for plasticizer demand has weakened. In the future, as cost support weakens and demand decreases, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of September 13th, the price of PET water bottle level has been stable, with an average price of 7300.00 yuan/ton. Compared to the same period last week, the price has been mainly stable, and the market supply and demand are balanced. Currently, the mainstream price is around 7300 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic PET price remained stable and weak, compared to the same period last week. Currently, the focus of negotiations is stable and the mainstream price is around 7200 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking is on demand, and the negotiation atmosphere is average. Manufacturers mainly offer profits and take orders, while upstream cost support is average, and stable operation is the main trend.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On September 12, the rubber and plastic index was 708 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 33.21% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and a rise of 34.09% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate steadily in the short term, with prices remaining around 7200 yuan/ton.