According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of September 12, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 956 yuan/ton. Compared with September 6, 2023 (reference price of 882 yuan/ton), the price increased by 74 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.39%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in the recent period (9.6 to 9.12), the domestic market for mid to high-end grade phosphate ore has seen an overall upward trend. Entering September, the downstream demand for domestic phosphorus ore is gradually recovering, and with the boost of demand, the phosphorus ore industry has a good mentality. The supply of mid to high-end grade ore in the phosphate ore field is tight, and the spot circulation is tight. With the support of both supply and demand, the focus of the phosphorus ore market has been constantly moving upward recently. The market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore has accumulated an increase of around 50-80 yuan/ton within seven days. As of September 12th, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is referenced around 900-980 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications, powder to lump ratio, and transportation conditions. The specific details need to be negotiated through actual orders.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market Trend of Phosphate Rock

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the phosphorus ore market is mild, and the rebound in downstream demand has boosted market confidence. The phosphorus ore data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly operate stronger, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has slightly increased this week, with sulfuric acid prices rising from 312.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 316.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.28%. Weekend prices increased by 32.77% year-on-year.

Upstream market continues to rise, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is good

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly increased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market continues to rise, with sulfur prices rising from 1166.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1176.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.86%. The weekend price increased by 4.44% year-on-year. The upstream market has slightly increased, and cost support has increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market has stabilized at a high level, with a market price of 10100.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices increased by 1.00% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market slightly increased, with market prices rising from 16700.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 16866.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.00%. Weekend prices increased by 3.16% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to late September, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. Although the downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have stabilized at high levels, downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. However, there is a downward trend in the upstream sulfur market and insufficient cost support. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is declining. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate and decline slightly.

This week, domestic propane in Shandong fluctuated and rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of propane in Shandong on September 4th was 5575 yuan/ton, and on September 8th it was 5613 yuan/ton. The weekly increase was 0.67%, a decrease of 5.75% compared to the same period last year.

As of September 8th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ September 8th

East China region/ 5350-5750 yuan/ton

North China region/ 5550-5700 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5550-5650 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 5550-5750 yuan/ton

The Shandong propane market continued to rise this week (9.4-9.8). During the week, international oil prices continued to rise, coupled with the introduction of a significant increase in CP prices at the beginning of the month, leading to an increase in import costs, and the domestic market actively pushing up prices. The downstream actively enters the market, the upstream inventory is low, the goods are smoothly sold, and the market trading atmosphere is good.

Saudi Aramco’s CP was introduced in September 2023, with propane at $550 per ton, an increase of $80 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $560 per ton, an increase of $100 per ton compared to the previous month.

Overall, the current propane price has risen to a high level, and downstream purchases have entered the market. There is an expectation of increased demand in the future, and it is expected that the propane market will continue to rise slightly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently stabilized. This week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1216.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.89% month on month. The current price has decreased by 4.45% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and consolidated. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent formaldehyde market has mainly experienced slight fluctuations, and the market has continued to stabilize this week. As of September 7th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1150-1300 yuan/ton. This week, there was a downward trend in the price of raw material methanol, but formaldehyde did not keep up with the increase in methanol in the early stage, and the price was still at a low level. The downward trend this time is not obvious, and the market trading sentiment is average. Formaldehyde manufacturers are shipping normally, and the market fluctuation is not significant.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is declining, and the Xinhang unit in Inner Mongolia is undergoing maintenance; The overall recovery is greater than the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected. Short term cost support is limited, supply changes are not significant, and demand is expected to increase. Methanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic methanol market will tentatively rise.

Recently, the methanol market has fluctuated slightly, with average cost support. Downstream delivery sentiment is more rational, and the atmosphere for formaldehyde transactions is flat. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the near future.

Since the domestic phenol market rose in July, it has been fluctuating at high levels in August, not as high as in September. According to the market analysis system of Business Society, as of September 5th, the national market was 8582.5 yuan/ton, which has accumulated an increase of 30.14% compared to early July in the domestic phenol market. The major mainstream markets are as follows:

The quotation of phenol in various markets across the country on September 5th is as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily fluctuations

East China region/ 8580./130

Shandong region/ 8600./150

The surrounding area of Yanshan/ 8580./130

South China region/ 8650/150

The factory has raised the listing price in a centralized manner. Sinopec’s phenol market in East China has increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8500 yuan/ton, while Sinopec’s phenol price in North China has increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8500 yuan/ton. After multiple increases in factory prices, there was little spot pressure on the market, and traders were reluctant to sell and offer higher prices.

The cost support is strong, and the raw material market is rising. Pure benzene is negotiated at 8000-8050 yuan/ton, and downstream styrene profits are being restored, leading to an increase in factory procurement in the market. With the rapid rise of pure benzene to a high level in recent times, cost support has increased, and factory cost has increased. Actively raising prices is in line with market prices. Be cautious in chasing up high prices at the terminal, prioritize hard demand, and have limited trading volume.

From the perspective of the business community, the raw materials sector remained strong in September. Although domestic units Wanhua Chemical and Changchun Chemical have maintenance plans, downstream configuration units are also undergoing maintenance, which has little impact on market supply. Downstream phenolic resin is expected to weaken during the high temperature off-season, and demand may improve. It is expected that the market will remain strong in September and operate at a high level in the short term, with negotiations ranging from 8550 to 8700 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic PTA spot market has shown a slight decline since September. As of September 5th, the average spot market price of PTA in East China was 6173 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% compared to early September.

Cost side benefits support, supply tightening expectations continue to ferment, boosting the oil market, and international crude oil prices continue to rise, reaching new highs for the year. As of September 4th, the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was at $88.55 per barrel, an increase of $0.45 or 0.51%.

PTA’s own supply, affected by the typhoon, gradually restored the 235 ton production capacity in South China, and the domestic device load increased to a high level near 82%. In addition, downstream polyester production has remained stable at a high level of 90%, and the polyester market price has slightly increased. However, the follow-up of terminal demand is weak, and attention needs to be paid to the impact of the Asian Games on polyester and weaving machines in the future.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current macro atmosphere is favorable for the commodity market. In addition, there are still expectations for Saudi Arabia to implement a production reduction, oil prices remain optimistic, and macro and cost support for PTA. However, there is no obvious drive from supply and demand, and PTA continues to accumulate inventory. The Asian Games may affect downstream polyester production, and it is expected that the PTA market will be weak and volatile.

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market stabilized and prices remained at last week’s level. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon saw a weekly increase or decrease of 0%. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first grade solar energy is maintained at 70-85000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the production of silicon material manufacturers has slightly rebounded, mainly due to the weakening of the impact of power restrictions on the manufacturers’ devices, and some devices have resumed operation. The supply has eased somewhat since then. In addition, the new production capacity of silicon materials has been gradually released, but the overall inventory is at a low level; The short-term supply of silicon materials is still being released, which is also the reason why the price of silicon materials remains high. At present, most silicon material companies have signed long-term orders for next month, and some individual orders still have a slight upward trend, but the amplitude is restrained; Downstream silicon wafers maintain rigidity in their demand for silicon materials.

On the demand side, the downstream silicon wafer production rate is normal, and the recent price increase by the silicon wafer manufacturer Longji has played a stabilizing role in the market. High temperature power restrictions have little impact on the actual output of silicon wafers. Silicon wafer companies operate at high operating rates, resulting in an increase in silicon wafer inventory, which may hinder prices in the later stages; From the perspective of terminal demand, there is no significant increase in the procurement demand for silicon wafers in the battery and component sectors; And the export sector still faces uncertain prospects. This may result in the price increase of silicon material being difficult to maintain for too long.

Future forecast: The supply of silicon materials in the market will remain reasonable and stable in the near future, but there is also a risk of inventory accumulation in the future as the release of new production capacity increases. Moreover, there has not been much improvement in demand, so the tight supply of silicon materials may gradually ease, and there is little possibility of a retaliatory rebound in the future. Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that prices are expected to maintain a narrow adjustment pattern in the near future.

Market Overview: According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of September 1, 2023, the reference price for diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5400 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton or 0.93% compared to the price on August 25, 2023 (reference price for diethylene glycol is 5350 yuan/ton).

Market Overview: This week (8.26-9.1), the domestic diethylene glycol market fluctuated and operated in a fluctuating range. The overall performance of the market was not surprising, with relatively small price fluctuations. The operation of domestic devices is stable, with a large market for initial start-up devices, a concentration of port to ship shipments, and a significant accumulation of inventory in the main port. However, the increase in supply has not had a significant impact on the market. The performance of port shipments is relatively stable, with overall demand flat, and there is currently no positive news on the fundamentals. Supply and demand are deadlocked, and the market sentiment is on the sidelines. The market trend is relatively calm, and the overall trading atmosphere is average. As of yesterday, Jiangsu spot prices closed at 5310-5330 yuan/ton, while South China spot delivery prices closed at 5400-5450 yuan/ton.

Future market forecast: In the near future, the operation of domestic devices has been stable, and there will still be more ships arriving at the port in the next week. Inventory is still accumulating, and market support from the supply side is limited; In terms of demand, after entering September, the main downstream unsaturated resin industry has gradually entered the peak season of Jinjiu, with expectations for incremental demand. At present, the supply and demand side remains deadlocked, and the diethylene glycol market may experience narrow fluctuations. Future demand expectations may be optimistic, and prices may adjust strongly. The market is waiting for demand guidance.

Product name: Potassium chloride (imported)

Latest price (August 31st): 2900 yuan/ton

On August 31st, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride slightly increased, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton or 1.75% compared to August 30th. Salt Lake Group raised the arrival price of potassium chloride in September, boosting market confidence. At present, the port’s 62% self raised price of white potassium is around 2900-3000 yuan/ton; The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 3000 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2600-2700 yuan/ton. The arrival price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is around 2700 yuan/ton. The downstream potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate markets have stopped falling and risen, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased.

In the future, domestic potassium chloride prices may fluctuate slightly and rise, with consolidation being the main trend. The average import market price of potassium chloride is around 3100 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China on August 1st was 6640 yuan/ton. On August 30th, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6925 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic hot process phosphoric acid price increased by 4.29%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 6433 yuan/ton on August 1st, and 6916 yuan/ton on August 30th. This month, the domestic wet-process phosphoric acid price increased by 7.51%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of phosphoric acid fluctuated and increased this month. In mid to early August, although there was support on the cost side, downstream demand was not sufficient, with immediate replenishment being the main focus, and market transactions were average. The market situation of hot process phosphoric acid fluctuates in a narrow range, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid increases. In late August, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus significantly increased, and the cost side trend was strong. The market price of phosphoric acid followed the rise of raw materials. As of August 30th, the factory quotation for 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6900 yuan/ton, the factory quotation for 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6900 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6700-6950 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 6250-7700 yuan/ton.

Market situation of raw material yellow phosphorus. The yellow phosphorus market price rose in August, and the overall market trading situation was relatively active. On site inventory is low, market spot is tight, and manufacturers mainly place early orders. Towards the end of the month, manufacturers are relatively resistant to high priced yellow phosphorus, resulting in a stalemate between supply and demand. The enterprise will not provide external quotations for the time being, and will discuss the actual order in detail. Downstream procurement is more cautious, with moderate stocking and a focus on immediate demand. As of August 30th, the market quotation is around 26180-26500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society believe that the recent rise in raw material yellow phosphorus has been temporarily delayed, and the market is operating at a low price, with short-term prices likely to loosen. The phosphoric acid market is undergoing consolidation and operation, with downstream and dealers mainly watching. It is expected that the short-term price of phosphoric acid will follow the fluctuation of raw materials and organize and operate.