According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the rare earth market price index rose in September, and the domestic light and heavy rare earth market prices all rose. The rare earth index was 516 points on September 27, up 23 points from 493 points on the first day, a decrease of 48.76% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 90.41% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and metallic praseodymium neodymium in China have all increased. As of the end of the month, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 520000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.48%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 640000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.49%; The price of neodymium oxide is 532500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.41%; The price of neodymium metal is 660000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.12%; The price of metal praseodymium is 670000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.69%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 527500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.94%.

In early September, the domestic light rare earth market showed an upward trend. Due to the impact of regional rainfall weather, some rare earth mining enterprises were restricted in production, and some rare earth manufacturers took the initiative to reduce production, which further slowed down the growth rate of spot inventory in the market. Separation plants and metal plants in Sichuan region will have varying degrees of production reduction and shutdown behavior, and the price trend of light rare earth market will rise due to supply reduction. However, in the middle of the year, downstream resistance has intensified, and the procurement of inquiries has come to an end. In addition, downstream magnetic material enterprises have reduced new orders, intensified upstream and downstream competition, and the domestic light rare earth market price trend has remained stable. Overall, the light rare earth market trend in September has slightly increased.

The domestic market trend of heavy rare earth dysprosium series has increased, with the price of dysprosium oxide reaching 2.69 million yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 8.32% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.585 million yuan/ton, an increase of 6.38% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium metal was 33.35 million yuan/ton, an increase of 6.35% compared to the beginning of the month; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly increasing, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 8.5 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium reaching 10.7 million yuan/ton. In September, the trend of the heavy rare earth market rose, with an increase in inquiries and a tightening of spot supply. Affected by a slight increase in demand, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices rose. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream magnetic material companies are nearing the end of stocking, and the price increase in the heavy rare earth market is slowing down. The recent news of border closures in Myanmar has continued, providing market support for future rare earth prices and maintaining high prices in the heavy rare earth market. As the traditional peak season of “Golden Nine Silver Ten” approaches, the demand for new energy vehicles, industrial robots and other terminals is also constantly increasing. The demand is still positive, and there is still support for the domestic heavy rare earth market. Positive factors support the upward trend of domestic heavy rare earth prices.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 843000 and 846000 units respectively in August, with a month on month increase of 4.7% and 8.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 22% and 27%, respectively; From January to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 5.434 million and 5.374 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 36.9% and 39.2%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, coupled with the opening of the Golden Nine Silver Ten Year Plan, the demand for new energy has increased, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices. The price trend of the domestic heavy rare earth market has slightly increased.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, the export of rare earth and its products reached 9618 tons in August, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; From January to August, the cumulative export of rare earth and its products reached 79083 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. China’s rare earth commodity export volume increased, which to some extent supported the rare earth market prices.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources have issued the second batch of total control indicators for rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2023. The total control indicators for the second batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2023 are 120000 tons and 115000 tons, respectively. In 2023, the total control index of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 240000 tons and 230000 tons, respectively, an increase of 14.3% and 13.9% compared with 2022. The increase of mining output will correspondingly suppress the growth of rare earth market.

Future Market Forecast: As the holiday approaches, procurement has come to an end, and transportation has been affected to some extent. It is expected that the domestic rare earth market price trend will remain stable in the short term, with a lack of primary and renewable supply sources in the medium to long term. Dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, The global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow, and we are optimistic about the market prices of the rare earth industry for the long term.