According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11800 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon over the weekend was 11733 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57%.

The prices quoted by domestic activated carbon manufacturers are generally stable, with some being weak. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranges from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton, and the market is not moving fast, with orders being the main focus and transactions falling short of expectations. The focus is on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in areas such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially gold charcoal, which receives more inquiries from the African market; The supply of fruit shell charcoal with medium to low indicators is smoother. There is a recent rebound in imported carbonized materials, and the industry can pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The performance of the activated carbon market is weak, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic EVA market has been fluctuating and weakening, with a concentrated decline in spot prices last week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 17th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.36% from the beginning of the month and a weekly decrease of 5.14%.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of raw material ethylene, the contraction of domestic spot circulation eased at the end of last month, and the current favorable situation is exhausted. Due to the lower intention of downstream industries to purchase goods at the end of the year, the flow of goods on site is not smooth. At the same time, distant oil prices fluctuated and fell, while ethylene fell due to various bearish factors. It is expected that the future market trend may continue to be weak;

Although the vinyl acetate industry is still in the traditional off-season, there has been no significant increase in demand. But recently, the supply has been tight, and the actual price of on-site trading has been high. Manufacturers and merchants have maintained stable pricing. Upstream glacial acetic acid and ethylene fluctuated, with overall support being mediocre. Last week, the market for EVA raw materials fell and remained stable, providing moderate support for the EVA market.

In terms of supply:

Since early December, the load level of domestic EVA enterprises has continued to rise. The industry’s operating rate has increased from around 80% at the beginning of the month to the current 87%, with weekly production increasing simultaneously and market supply remaining abundant. The mentality of the petrochemical plant is weak, and the factory price has been lowered. The maintenance plan for future equipment is insufficient, and the shipment volume will remain at a relatively high level. The overall inventory position of EVA is on the rise, and merchants tend to offer at a discounted price. Overall, recent EVA suppliers have shown poor support for spot goods.

In terms of demand:

Last week, the demand side of EVA showed weak performance. The new quarter orders for foam shoe materials have limited impact on the driving force of trading, and the purchasing level of photovoltaic enterprises is lower than expected. On exchange trading is concentrated on low-end offers, and the logic of buyers buying on dips remains unchanged. Lack of market buying sentiment and resistance to the return of high priced goods.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the EVA market has been consolidating after a decline last week. The raw material market provides moderate support for EVA spot prices. The industry load has returned to a high level, and downstream demand is weak. Market confidence has been hit, and the profitability of enterprises has significantly declined. At present, some petrochemical plants have reduced their order operations, but there is no expectation of supply side contraction or signal of increased consumption in the future, making it difficult for the market to change the bearish guidance situation. It is expected that the EVA market will remain weak in the short term, and it is recommended to closely monitor the load situation of enterprises.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride remained stable this week, with a price of 3080.00 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 21.53%. On December 18th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 97.78, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 44.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 67.86% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-03-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have remained stable this week. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2900 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2900 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 3000-3100 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2850 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has slightly declined this week, dropping from 7550.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7530.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.26%, and a year-on-year decrease of 17.93% over the weekend. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5475.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5450.00 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.46%. The weekend price fell by 6.84% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their demand for potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In late December, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall narrowly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with rigid demand procurement being the main focus. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene has slightly declined recently (12.12-12.18). On December 18th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6510 yuan/ton, while on December 12th, the benchmark price was 6550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%.

International crude oil prices fluctuate narrowly, with short-term support for toluene cost

Recently (12.12-12.18), international crude oil prices have fluctuated narrowly, providing short-term support for the cost of toluene. As of December 15th, the WTI02 contract closed at $72.09 per barrel and settled at $71.78 per barrel; The Brent 02 contract closed at $76.91 per barrel and settled at $76.55 per barrel.

Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of mid December, the construction of refinery facilities nationwide is around 70%.

PX starts temporarily stabilizing toluene and obtaining necessary support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance, and spot supply is normal. This week, the international crude oil price trend has fluctuated, and the external PX price has not changed much. As of the 14th, the closing price in Asia is 944-946 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 969-971 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene units in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region is normal. Recently, crude oil prices have fallen first and then increased, and the trend of crude oil is fluctuating. The domestic xylene market prices are temporarily stable.

External prices rebound, toluene supply pressure continues

On the one hand, with the rebound of crude oil prices over the weekend, the price of toluene in Asia has rebounded. As of December 15th, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 823-825 US dollars/ton; On the other hand, domestic production of toluene continues to slightly increase, and port inventory pressure continues, resulting in a slight increase in pressure on the supply side of toluene. As of mid December, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 75%; The inventory of toluene in East China is 41000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China is 14000 tons.

Market forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices are fluctuating and consolidating, and although the cost support for toluene has rebounded, the overall trend is weak; The downstream mixed blending of toluene and other industries have weak demand support, coupled with a continued increase in supply in the short term, and it is expected that the toluene market will consolidate weakly in the future.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of December 15th, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7150 yuan/ton, with a narrow upward trend compared to the same period last week. This week, the price has increased by 0.23%, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders.

This week, the market price of cyclohexane has slightly increased, with the mainstream price around 7100 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.23% compared to the same period last week. The mainstream manufacturer’s quotation range is maintained at around 7000 yuan/ton, and downstream procurement is on demand. The willingness to stock up is not strong, the demand is average, and upstream support is weak.

Chemical index: On December 14th, the chemical index was 874 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.57% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society’s cyclohexane analyst believes that in the short term, the cyclohexane market is mainly stable and the price fluctuation range is limited.

The price of acetic anhydride has dropped this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 14th, the price of acetic anhydride was 6025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.86% compared to the price of 6400 yuan/ton on December 8th last weekend. The maintenance of acetic acid enterprises has ended, the supply of acetic acid has resumed, the price of acetic acid has decreased, and the cost of raw materials has decreased; Acetic anhydride enterprises have resumed production, coupled with limited transportation due to weather conditions, resulting in poor shipments. As a result, the price of acetic anhydride has dropped this week.

The price of acetic acid has dropped significantly this week

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market in Shengyishe, as of December 14th, the price of acetic acid was 3300 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 9.59% compared to the price of 3650 yuan/ton on December 8th. Multiple acetic acid companies have completed maintenance, domestic acetic acid companies have resumed production, and the supply of acetic acid has increased. Due to the impact of snowfall, transportation in the northwest region has been hindered, making it difficult for acetic acid manufacturers to ship, resulting in a significant drop in acetic acid prices.

Future prospects

According to data analysts from Business Society, the price of acetic acid has plummeted, leading to a decrease in the cost of acetic anhydride raw materials; Acetic anhydride enterprises resumed production, and the supply of acetic anhydride increased; Downstream demand is limited, with primary focus on procurement for essential needs; The situation of acetic anhydride oversupply continues. In the future, with a decrease in costs and an oversupply of acetic anhydride, it is expected that acetic anhydride will experience a volatile decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene has slightly declined recently (12.1-12.12). On December 12th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6550 yuan/ton, while on December 1st, the benchmark price was 6660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.65%.

International crude oil prices are weak, fluctuating, and toluene cost support is weak

Recently (12.1-12.12), international crude oil prices have been weakly volatile, providing weak support for the cost of toluene. As of December 12th, the WTI01 contract closed at $68.75 per barrel and settled at $68.61 per barrel; The Brent 02 contract closed at $73.27 per barrel and settled at $76.03 per barrel.

Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of early December, the operating rate of refinery facilities nationwide was around 690%.

PX starts slightly increasing toluene to obtain essential support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance, and spot supply is normal. This week, the international crude oil price trend has declined, and PX external prices have fallen due to this impact. As of the 7th, the closing price in Asia is 935-937 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 960-962 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The PX supply in the Asian region is sufficient, and the domestic xylene market prices are temporarily stable due to the impact of lower crude oil prices.

The external market price has fallen, and the pressure on the supply side of toluene continues to rise

On the one hand, since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the interest rate spread between Asia and the United States has shrunk, and the price of toluene in Asia has decreased. As of December 12th, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between $808-810 per ton; On the other hand, domestic toluene production has slightly increased and port inventory pressure continues. As of early December, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 740%; The inventory of toluene in East China is 42000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China is 11000 tons.

Market forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices are weak and volatile, with weak support for the cost of toluene; The downstream mixed blending of toluene and other industries have weak demand support, coupled with a continued increase in supply in the short term, and it is expected that the toluene market will consolidate weakly in the future.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the market for butadiene rubber has continued to be weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 12th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 11860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.12% from the beginning of the month at 12370 yuan/ton.

The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has significantly declined. Downstream tire factories have seen a significant decrease in production compared to late November. The demand for butadiene rubber has weakened, coupled with a slight increase in supply, resulting in overall weak transactions in the butadiene rubber market and a decrease in the factory price of butadiene rubber. As of December 12th, PetroChina Northeast Sales Company’s Daqing Shunding Northeast Warehouse has raised prices by 11600 yuan/ton; Private polybutadiene rubber costs 11200-11600 yuan/ton.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has slightly increased.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the price of butadiene has significantly declined, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 12th, the price of butadiene was 8370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.27% from 9125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the natural rubber market has fluctuated and fallen, and the atmosphere in the rubber market is weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 12th, the price was 12470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.66% from 12680 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest point in the cycle was 12300 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Recently (12.1-12.12), the production of all steel tires has slightly decreased, resulting in weak demand for rubber. It is understood that as of early December 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was 5.9%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.

Market forecast: According to analysts from Business Society, the cost of butadiene rubber has significantly decreased and the demand has weakened during the off-season. Although Maoming Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance recently, the overall supply of butadiene rubber is still loose, and it is expected that the spot market of butadiene rubber will be weak and consolidate in the future.

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week. On December 4th, the average market price in Shandong was 3683.33 yuan/ton, and on December 11th, the average market price was 3666.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% and a decrease of 23.34% compared to the same period last year.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda was weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 844 yuan/ton. On December 11th, the average market price was around 824 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.37%, and a decrease of 25.63% compared to the same period last year.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of caustic soda has stabilized this week, and the actual trading atmosphere has weakened compared to the previous period. Downstream market entry enthusiasm is cautious. The supply-demand game, taking into account the short-term or sustained consolidation of caustic soda prices, depends on downstream market demand.

Price trend

In early December, the domestic PA66 market saw a narrow decline. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic PA66 mixed benchmark price was 21100 yuan/ton on December 8th, with a price increase or decrease of -1.09% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

At the beginning of this month, PA66 took on the previous sideways trend and the spot price was at a high level. Overall, the recent market situation has seen a slight decrease in spot prices for various brands, a narrow decrease in production line operating rates, and an overall stable industry load of around 62%. The on-site supply of goods is moderate, the inventory position is low, and the pricing operation of the enterprise has been adjusted. The support from the supplier is average. Terminal enterprises still rely on maintaining production as their main source of goods, with on-site stocking centered around essential needs, and weak support from the demand side for spot goods. On the upstream side, domestic supply of hexamethylene diamine is tight, and prices have remained high due to the impact of previous price hikes by international large factories. The early bearish guidance in the adipic acid market resulted in a bearish price decline. At present, the main focus is on volatile operations, and the cost side’s support for the PA66 market is concentrated on hexamethylene diamine. At present, the market supply and demand are not strong, and the overall price of PA66 is weak and stable.

Future Market Forecast

In early December, the spot price of PA66 fell narrowly. The fluctuation and consolidation of raw material prices have provided moderate support for the cost side of PA66. The load of PA66 enterprise has been reduced by 3%, and the inventory position is low. The demand side still relies mainly on maintaining production, and it is expected that PA66 may continue to operate weakly in the short term.