1、 Price trend

The factory price of octanol in Shandong fell this week. This week, the average factory price of octanol in Shandong fell from 11766.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10966.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 6.8%, up 58.94% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, octanol market fell this week, with the octanol commodity index at 80.64 on January 8.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturers’ quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong octanol mainstream manufacturers fell this week: Jianlan chemical’s quotation for octanol this weekend was 11000 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s quotation for octanol this weekend was 10700 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng’s quotation for octanol this weekend was 11200 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week Down 800 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of octanol fell this week. The quoted price dropped from 7304.55 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7292.73 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a decrease of 0.16%, and a year-on-year increase of 4.43%. The upstream raw material market prices fell slightly, affected by the supply and demand side, which had a negative impact on the price of octanol.

Octanol downstream market, this week DOP factory prices fell larger. DOP quotation fell from 10250.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9825.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.15%, and a year-on-year increase of 35.21%. The price of downstream DOP fell, the enthusiasm of downstream customers to purchase octanol weakened, the demand for octanol was general, and the future market operators mostly watched the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of January, the trend of Shandong octanol market may be slightly volatile and fall mainly. Upstream propylene market fell slightly, raw material support was weak, downstream DOP market fell sharply, downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened, octanol supply was normal. Business community octanol analysts believe that: in mid January, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of octanol market in Shandong, the octanol market may fall slightly.

1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices rose sharply this week. By the end of the week, the spot copper price was 61248.33 yuan / ton, up 5.39% from 58116.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 5.68% from the beginning of the year, and 25.84% from the same period last year. This week, LME copper rose again in March, closing at US $8205 on Friday, up 5.82%; this week, the Shanghai copper index moved up to 60390 yuan, up 4.48%. This week, the international copper index closed at 53750 yuan, up 4.41%.

Bitcoin rose sharply at the beginning of this week, while OPEC meeting promoted production reduction to drive crude oil up sharply, and market inflation expectations rose. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party of the United States basically controlled the two houses in the election. The market hopes that the United States will introduce more stimulus policies, and China’s infrastructure construction expenditure is expected to be optimistic. The overnight copper output rose by $99 to an eight year high. Concentrate supply may remain tight, and global inventory is at a historical low Under the background of continuously favorable macro situation, the market is optimistic, copper has broken through the 8-year high and reached 60000 yuan / ton.

Based on the above situation, the macro atmosphere is optimistic, the market risk preference is improved, and the copper price is rising, but the epidemic is still raging, the current basic support is limited, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA6 market remained stable at a high level in December, and the spot price had a correction in the latter half of the year. As of January 1 of the new year, the mainstream offer price of Zhongyou 2.75-2.85 was about 12933.33 yuan / ton, up 2.92% from the average price in early December.

2、 The influencing factors were analyzed

In terms of upstream caprolactam, the domestic caprolactam market rebounded after rising in December, caprolactam continued to be in short supply in the first and middle of the year, and the spot price rose steadily. The average price on December 23 was 11400 yuan / ton. With the restart of maintenance equipment in the early stage, the supply of goods increased in the last ten days, and the effect began to appear, and the price gradually fell. Raw material pure benzene continued to rise in early December, supported by the external market. In the later period, due to the decline of crude oil, the continuous decline of styrene price and the increase of inventory pressure of pure benzene northern factory, pure benzene was under pressure. At present, the pure benzene market is volatile, and the cost of caprolactam is generally supported.

Raw material caprolactam market fell after rising, the cost of PA6 support in general. In December, the market of PA6 was generally strong, and all brands of products still rose in the first and middle of the year. PA6 has a certain increase in the early stage, and the price has been at a high level. Due to the pressure on the cost surface of some polymerization plants and the weakening of downstream demand, some polymerization plants passively reduce the load. Downstream factories and traders are resistant to the high price of goods. They prefer to buy on the cheap and purchase cautiously.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in December, the domestic PA6 market remained strong at a high level, and fell back at the end of the month. Upstream caprolactam supply increased, stagflation callback, the cost of PA6 support weakened. Downstream factory replenishment just need to give priority to, conflict with high price goods. PA6 has both cost side pressure and shrinking demand in the short term. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 will continue to be weak.

Price trend:

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic ABS market declined in December, and the spot prices of various brands decreased to a certain extent. As of January 1 of the new year, the mainstream offer price of general ABS was about 15750 yuan / ton, down 18.18% from the beginning of December.

Factor analysis:

ABS upstream styrene domestic market from up to down in mid November, into December continued to decline. In the early stage, affected by the rising price of downstream products and strong demand, the market mentality is strong. The current styrene spot supply increases, the mainstream price continues to decline. Domestic units restart more concentrated in December, and the downstream demand is weak. The mainstream downstream is mainly supported by rigid demand, and the gas purchase is insufficient, which has a negative impact on ABS.

Butadiene market also fell sharply. According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic butadiene market price was 7751 yuan / ton at the end of December, with a decrease of 21.91% in the month and a year-on-year decrease of 6.07%. With the restart of Wuhan Petrochemical Company and Jiangsu sipang plant and the gradual release of Yantai Wanhua production, the supply side of domestic butadiene market was abundant in January, and the supply pressure was expected to increase after part of the source of export was transferred to domestic sales, which was also bad for ABS.

In December, the domestic ABS market adjusted downward, the price of upstream three materials was not strong, and the cost support was weak. Domestic ABS supply is stable, and the inventory of petrochemical plants begins to accumulate. On the downstream side, the consumption of domestic major household appliance enterprises and automobile industry is acceptable, but the market bearish sentiment is aggravating near the holidays. In addition, the long-term psychological pressure of ABS to buy goods at a higher price has gradually increased, which makes it difficult for downstream factories to buy goods at a higher price. The price of the transaction is low and the price is low.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: 12 ABS market fell, the prices of all brands have not a small reduction. On the cost side, the upstream three materials are weakening as a whole, which is bad for ABS. At present, ABS spot supply is sufficient, petrochemical plants and businesses offer continue to fall. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to decline in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, on October 1, the average quoted price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 9166 yuan / ton. On December 31, the average quoted price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 11333 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1, the average quoted price increased by 2167 yuan / ton, up 23.64% in the fourth quarter. From October 1 to December 31, the maximum amplitude is 40%.

The market trend of propylene oxide in the fourth quarter of 2020 has a profound impact on the fluctuation of domestic propylene glycol market

It can be seen from the trend chart of propylene glycol propylene oxide in the fourth quarter that the fluctuation of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol market is closely related to the rise and fall of raw material propylene oxide. In terms of cost, the support and pressure of cost directly affect the domestic market price trend of propylene glycol. In terms of demand, the increase and decrease of demand also have a significant impact on propylene glycol. It can be seen that in late October, the raw material ring is very important Propylene oxide went down, but the demand for propylene glycol was acceptable. Therefore, the market of propylene glycol remained stable at the end of October. During the middle and late November, supported by both cost and demand, the market of propylene glycol rose to a high level in the fourth quarter.

After the National Day in October, the domestic industrial propylene glycol market fluctuated and adjusted. Due to the cost pressure caused by the continuous increase of propylene oxide, the market price of propylene glycol continued to be high, and the price rose slightly. In the downstream, the demand of users did not increase significantly, but it could still maintain the purchase of rigid demand, and the inventory in the yard was low. Therefore, propylene glycol kept stable operation after a slight increase in October.

On the first few days of November, as the price of propylene oxide fell and the cost weakened, the price of propylene glycol went down. On the 9th and 10th, the decline of propylene oxide stopped. As for the increase of propylene glycol cost support, the supply of propylene glycol was tight, the inventory was low, and the pressure on supply was small. The factory’s offer price began to callback rationally. In the middle of the month, the foreign trade orders of propylene glycol increased, and the demand increased. Under the condition of “one order is difficult to obtain”, the factory’s offer price increased by 1000-2500 yuan / ton. On November 24, the reference average transaction price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol rose to 12733 yuan / ton, the highest in the fourth quarter. Compared with October 1, the average price increased by 3567 yuan / ton, or 38.91%. After a slight decrease in demand, individual factories slightly lowered their quotations, but until the end of November, the overall propylene glycol market was strong.

On December 2, the quotation of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol market showed a “slide” downward trend. Propylene oxide, the raw material, began to fall since the end of November, and the support for propylene glycol gradually weakened. After the completion of early preparation, the wait-and-see mood of the downstream increased in the past two days, and the demand was insufficient. The offer of propylene glycol plant began to fall for 10 consecutive days since December 2. By the end of December 13, the average transaction price of propylene glycol plant had dropped to 0 10666 yuan / ton, down by 1967 yuan / ton or 15.57% compared with the beginning of December. Subsequently, the market continued to run in a weak position. During this period, individual factories failed to drive the overall market up after the price increase. On the 22nd of December, driven by the rising price of raw material propylene oxide, the market price of propylene glycol, which was depressed for several days, rose sharply for the first time in December. Then, individual propylene glycol factories in Shandong were shut down for maintenance. The supply of propylene glycol was tight, and the market was strong until the end of December On October 31, the reference average transaction price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol rose to 11333 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1, the average transaction price increased by 2167 yuan / ton, up 23.64% in the fourth quarter. From October 1 to December 31, the maximum amplitude is 40%.

Analysis of future trend

Near the Spring Festival, the logistics will be shut down, and the downstream will start to store goods one after another. At present, some factories in Shandong are shut down for maintenance, and the inventory in the propylene glycol yard is low, so the supply is tight. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene glycol Market will rise slightly and maintain a strong operation before the Spring Festival.

Commodity index: on December 30, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index was 98.69, up 0.39 points from yesterday, down 9.47% from 109.01 points (August 28, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and up 17.04% from 84.32 points, the lowest point on August 18, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

Monitoring found that since the water treatment plants in Henan main production areas stopped production in the middle of last month, the market of polyaluminum chloride continued to rise; in December, the market of polyaluminum chloride continued the trend of November, showing an obvious upward trend of shock. According to the monitoring data of business society, the lowest price of polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28% is 1740 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the highest price is about 1825.71 yuan / ton at the end of this month. The monthly increase continues to expand to 4.93%, which is also the highest price of polyaluminum chloride since 2020.

Raw material cost: according to the monitoring of the business community, the price of hydrochloric acid in North China fell sharply this month. The price was about 310 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 287.5 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of about 7%. The main factor is that the downstream hydrochloric acid production stopped, the demand decreased and the supply of hydrochloric acid exceeded the demand. Although the price of natural gas used in the production of polyaluminum chloride is high, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the situation is difficult to change in the short term. However, because the polyaluminum chloride enterprise, one of the main production areas of water treatment enterprises, is still shut down, the fluctuation of the above three commodity prices has a weak impact on the water treatment enterprises.

Downstream demand: the current environmental inspection requirements are still strict, the new year’s Day holiday is around the corner, the demand has been relatively light, the follow-up is facing the Spring Festival holiday, I’m afraid there is no big demand before the festival.

Industry: in 2020, the water treatment industry will end with the best market of the year, and the production of enterprises will continue.

Future forecast: business community analysis believes that the new year’s Day holiday is coming, and 2020 is near the end. In January 2021, under the uncertain situation of the manufacturer’s resumption of production, the shortage of some sources of goods may last for a period of time. After new year’s day, with the approach of the Spring Festival holiday and the increasingly cold weather, the demand for polyaluminum chloride will be much lighter. It is preliminarily estimated that the price will be mainly stable.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic price of carbon black was 7250 yuan / ton on November 30, with a price fluctuation range of 100-300 yuan / ton. The price of carbon black rose this month.

2、 Market analysis

From January to may 2020, the supply and demand of carbon black fell due to public health events, crude oil slump and other factors. From early June to the end of November, the market price of carbon black rose. The market price of carbon black is stable and rising.

Industrial chain:

From the perspective of raw materials, the price of coal tar is warming: the price of coal tar, the main raw material for carbon black production, is rising, which has obvious psychological support for the rise of carbon black price. In June, the mainstream price of coal tar in the main producing areas increased by 300-500 yuan / ton. In the fourth quarter, with the withdrawal of 4.3m coke ovens in some areas, the tight supply of coal tar was aggravated. Since September, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market has kept rising for 10 weeks, with only a slight correction in one week. As of December 1, the mainstream reference in Shandong and Jiangsu was 2770 yuan / ton, and a few high-end references were 2800-2820 yuan / ton In Taiyuan and Luliang areas of Shanxi Province, the price is 2850-2910 yuan / ton, and in Linfen area, the price is 2910 yuan / ton.

In terms of demand, the main downstream operation rate increased in the second half of the year. In October 2020, China’s automobile production and sales increased by 11.0% and 12.5% year on year respectively. As of October, automobile production and sales have achieved year-on-year growth for seven consecutive months. At the same time, the steady recovery of tire export orders supports the high start-up and high continuity of tire factories. According to Zhuo Chuang’s statistics, the demand for carbon black in tires from June to October 2020 increased by nearly 120000 tons compared with the same period last year, while the output of carbon black enterprises decreased by 47600 tons.

From the perspective of carbon black market capacity, affected by environmental protection, the supply of carbon black production enterprises is tight: the low inventory of carbon black enterprises and the blocked start-up load of the industry lead to the shortage of carbon black supply, which is the main reason for the rise of carbon black price. The second half of 2020 is approaching the end of the 13th five year plan and the battle to defend the blue sky. The air pollution control policy requirements in autumn and winter of 2020-2021 are particularly strict. The areas involved include the main carbon black producing areas: Beijing Tianjin Hebei and its surrounding areas, Fenwei plain, Yangtze River Delta, etc. the enterprises are required to limit production by 20-50%, and the affected production capacity of carbon black industry is nearly 2.8 million tons.

3、 Future forecast

Business society chemical branch carbon black data division that: carbon black market steady growth.

According to statistics, in 2020, the price trend of domestic PX market will drop sharply, with the average price of 6900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 4300 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with an annual drop of 37.68%. From the price trend chart, it can be seen that the highest price of domestic PX appears at the beginning of the year, with the highest price of 6900 yuan / ton, the lowest price of the whole year appears in May, with the lowest price of 4000 yuan / ton The PX market price is affected by domestic and foreign factors.

In 2020, China’s total PX production capacity is 26.165 million tons, and the domestic new production capacity is 5.6 million tons. However, the annual operating rate is about 7.25%, and the total output is about 19 million tons. However, the total import volume in 2020 is as high as 13 million tons. On the whole, PX’s dependence on foreign countries has declined, and the dependence on foreign countries is 41% in 2020. The commissioning of new domestic devices has led to a sharp rise in domestic PX self-sufficiency rate, which is higher than that in 2019 However, PX price is also the most important factor affecting the domestic market price of p-xylene.

Combined with the domestic market price trend chart and PX external price trend chart, the PX market price trend can be divided into three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of May, the PX market price trend drops sharply; the second stage is from June to the end of July, the PX market price rises slightly; the third stage is from August to the end of the year, the PX market price falls again.

The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of May. The price trend of domestic PX market has been falling continuously. The domestic price has dropped from 6900 yuan / ton to 4000 yuan / ton in May, a drop of 42.03%. From the perspective of domestic spot supply, PX has a substantial decline in the normal supply rate and the operating price of PX products. During this period, affected by the collapse of crude oil price, PX external price dropped sharply, PX external price fell to a new low in history, external price dropped from 857 US dollars / ton CFR Taiwan to 450 US dollars / ton CFR Taiwan, external price dropped sharply by 400 US dollars / ton, the collapse of external price was a major negative impact on domestic xylene market, and domestic xylene market price dropped sharply. From the perspective of industrial chain, the price of crude oil in the first stage dropped sharply, from 58 US dollars / barrel at the beginning of the year due to the sudden drop of demand, the increase of shale oil production in the United States, and the bottleneck of oil storage capacity in the United States, especially the Cushing area is close to full load, which triggered one of the most eye-catching events of this year. The “negative oil price” event of WTI delivery monthly contract falling to – 37 US dollars, and the sharp drop of crude oil price has a great impact on the domestic oil market Toluene Market lost its support, and the price trend of domestic p-xylene market dropped sharply. The price trend of downstream PTA market dropped sharply, with the price of PTA Market falling by 28.61%. During this period, affected by domestic public health events, the operating rate of textile industry was low, and the demand for upstream products dropped sharply, resulting in high inventory of PX and PTA products, and the market price continued to fall.

The second stage is from June to the end of July, PX market price rose slightly, domestic market price rose slightly from 4000 yuan / ton to 4800 yuan / ton, an increase of 20%. Domestic PX market price rose slightly, mainly due to the improvement of domestic demand and the rise of crude oil price, which boosted the domestic petrochemical market. In the second stage, the domestic PX operation rate was less than 70%. A 800000 ton production line was started in Tenglong aromatics plant. Hengli Petrochemical added 4.5 million tons of production capacity and started 2.25 million tons. Yangzi Petrochemical’s PX plant was in normal operation, Jinling Petrochemical plant was in stable operation, Qingdao Lidong plant was in full load operation, Qilu Petrochemical plant was in normal operation, Urumqi petrochemical plant was in about 50% operation, and domestic PX plant was in stable operation The supply was normal, the domestic p-xylene market was improved, and the PX market price was higher. During this period, the international crude oil price rose sharply, OPEC + entered the period of super scale production reduction, the epidemic situation improved, the demand recovered, and the international oil price began to rise. During the super scale production reduction period of OPEC + from May to July, WTI rebounded sharply to about $40 / barrel. The rising trend of international crude oil price brought cost support to the PX market price, and the PX price recovered. The price of PX was driven up by the price of crude oil. The price of PX rose from 450 US dollars / ton to 540 US dollars / ton. The price of PX rose by 100 US dollars / ton. The price of PX has a certain guiding role for the domestic PX market. The dependence of PX on foreign countries is still high. The rise of PX price is a good support for the domestic PX market. In addition, the domestic textile industry started to rise from 3300 yuan / ton to 3600 yuan / ton, and the domestic textile industry started to recover The domestic market price of p-xylene recovered and went up.

The third stage is from August to the end of the year. The PX market price returns to the decline stage. The domestic PX market price drops from 4800 yuan / ton to 4000 yuan / ton at the end of the year, a decrease of 10.42%. During this period, more than 70% of domestic PX units were started, Yangzi Petrochemical Unit was stable in operation, Fuhai Chuang unit was started, Pengzhou petrochemical unit was stable in operation, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit was normal in operation, Jinling Petrochemical Unit was stable in operation, Qilu Petrochemical Unit was stable in operation, and Urumqi petrochemical unit was started at about 50% With the resumption of the plant and the commissioning of Dongying Weilian chemical’s 1 million T / a PX plant, the domestic supply has basically recovered to the highest level this year, the domestic supply of p-xylene has increased, and the market price trend of p-xylene has repeatedly declined. The price of PX has been fluctuating from US $550 to US $600 per ton, and the price of PX has not changed much. However, due to the increase of supply in the domestic market, the price of PX in the domestic market has declined. During this period, the crude oil price has been around us $45 / barrel. Although the epidemic is still fermenting, the economy continues to recover, and the oil price has entered a relatively stable stage. The oil price has always been rising and falling, mainly in the range of shocks. Even the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in August and September, and the endless farce in the US election, did not bring about another dramatic shock to oil prices, such as the breakdown of OPEC + negotiations and negative WTI oil prices. In addition, a major breakthrough was made in Xinguan vaccine in the later period, oil prices opened an upward channel, and OPEC + reached an agreement to reduce production in early December, which also released a positive signal to the oil market. The shock of international oil prices brought a certain positive impact on domestic petrochemical products, and the price of PX market declined slightly. At this stage, the price trend of PTA Market in the downstream was first suppressed and then increased, but the overall price trend was relatively stable, the foreign textile industry did not recover significantly, the domestic export market did not improve, the PTA market price remained at a low level, and the domestic p-xylene market was affected and went down.

From the perspective of PX products in 2020, China’s total PX production capacity is 26.165 million tons, and the domestic new production capacity is 5.6 million tons. The statistics of domestic new production capacity are as follows:

It is clear from the above table that domestic production capacity has risen sharply, and domestic supply has increased. The annual operating rate of PX is about 7.25%, and the annual output is expected to be about 19 million tons. The domestic p-xylene spot supply is still insufficient, and the domestic p-xylene still has a high degree of external dependence, which makes the domestic p-xylene pricing greatly affected by foreign countries. In 2020, all the new production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year, resulting in a substantial increase in domestic supply and a sharp decline in domestic market price of p-xylene. In addition, the annual average profit of PX products is negative in 2020. The profit trend of production process with mixed xylene as raw material is shown in the figure below

There are two kinds of PX production process, one is naphtha as the main raw material, the other is MX as the main raw material. In 2020, the profit of using naphtha as raw material to produce PX is limited, but the profit of using MX as raw material to produce PX has been negative, the annual average profit is – 50 US dollars / ton, and the profit is negative, which has become the new normal in 2020. The domestic market of p-xylene is not improving, and the market price of PX will drop sharply in 2020..

Part of domestic PX is separated from mixed xylene. Crude oil price and domestic mixed xylene price are also the influencing factors of domestic market price trend of p-xylene. 2020 is a special year in history. In the past year, the world has experienced unprecedented impact of new epidemic situation, and the global economy has been hit hard; as well as Europe, America, Asia and other economies have introduced new policies The economic aid program is also a difficult year for economic recovery. The performance of international crude oil has experienced ups and downs. We have also witnessed many historical moments, such as the breakdown of OPEC + talks, ultra scale production reduction, “negative oil prices” and the farce ridden US election. According to the trend chart of xylene, the market price of mixed xylene dropped sharply in 2020, with an overall increase of 29.01%. In the first quarter, the price of mixed xylene plummeted. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand of global PX led to the negative profit era of PX.

97% of domestic PX is used to produce PTA. Comparing the price trend of px-pta in 2019, it is obvious from the figure above that the price trend of PX and PTA in the whole year is quite close, and the domestic PX and PTA market prices have declined sharply. However, with the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, the textile industry will improve in December 2020, and the rise of downstream prices is undoubtedly a good support for the domestic PX market.

From the domestic PX price trend chart in recent five years, we can see that 2020 is the year with the lowest PX price. Chen Ling, PX analyst of business news agency, believes that the Asian PX market will continue to be weak in 2021, with overcapacity and weak price trend in the Asian PX market, which will bring huge upward pressure. With the release of new domestic production capacity, the supply continues to increase greatly. Although there are still new units put into operation in domestic PTA enterprises next year and the demand has increased, the new PX production capacity is even greater, including the commissioning of 5 million tons / year PX unit in phase II of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, becoming the largest PX leading enterprise in China. With the commissioning of 2.8 million tons of units in Jiangsu Shenghong company, the PX self-sufficiency rate will gradually increase, and the domestic import volume will be greatly reduced Domestic supply and demand have improved, but the overall supply of PX in Asia has been surplus. There is a huge pressure on big PX exporting countries such as Japan and South Korea. It is very likely that they will sell to the domestic market and compete with domestic enterprises in price. The production loss of PX will continue. Therefore, PX will remain weak in 2021, and the negative profit of PX will become the norm. It is difficult for the domestic market price of p-xylene to rise The average price is about 5000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the domestic high price will appear in the textile spring sales season, and the domestic market price of p-xylene will be 6000 yuan / ton. However, with the continuous release of new domestic production capacity, the domestic low price is expected to be about 3800 yuan / ton.

Commodity index: on December 28, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 88.59, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 17.31% compared with the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (May 8, 2019), and increased by 6.88% compared with the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

The data showed that the trend of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionicity) showed a small upward trend in December. The reason for the slight increase is that the factory has stopped production and there is a slight shortage of goods.

Price quotation: as shown in the figure, the data shows that since mid November 2020, the mainstream quotation of domestic manufacturers has shown a fluctuating upward trend; especially in December, due to the continuous shutdown of polyacrylamide manufacturers, the existing inventory has been gradually consumed, and the market price has gradually increased; for manufacturers with sufficient supply, the price change is not so urgent; at the same time, due to the price callback of raw material acrylonitrile this month, the price of polypropylene has declined In fact, in severe winter, the downstream demand is less, and the boosting effect on the price of the demand side is weak.

Industrial chain: upstream: the domestic mainstream quotation of acrylonitrile was 9300 yuan / ton in October, rose nearly 3000 yuan / ton in November, and returned to the mainstream quotation of 12250 yuan / ton in December. The main acrylonitrile plant in Shanghai has resumed normal operation. The overhaul plan of 260000 ton acrylonitrile plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, which was originally scheduled to start on December 20, has been postponed, but the specific time is not clear. The 130000 ton acrylonitrile plant in Haijiang, Shandong Province is scheduled to be restarted from December 10 to 15, but it has not been restarted yet. Jilin chemical fiber Gaocheng acrylic fiber plant was shut down on December 5, and Shanghai Petrochemical North plant was shut down on December 6. In December, Sinopec’s settlement prices of acrylonitrile products in North China and East China were 12450 yuan / ton, up 2550-2600 yuan / ton compared with last month’s settlement. Ineos’s acrylonitrile plant in Germany fell due to insufficient supply of raw propylene. Global supply is still tight, and the number of inquiries from Europe and India increased. Asahi Kasei of Japan announced that the Far East contract price in January 2021 was US $1800 / T, up US $380 / T from December.

Industry: in December, polyacrylamide manufacturers continued to stop production, the demand for raw material acrylonitrile weakened, and the price of acrylonitrile has been callback for many times; at present, with the gradual consumption of domestic spot stock of polyacrylamide, some manufacturers are short of supply, and the price has been raised, that is, the price of this month is mainly affected by the supply situation.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the current demand support is insufficient, the manufacturer’s shutdown is less affected by the change of raw material price, and the market price of polyacrylamide is mainly affected by the supply situation caused by the manufacturer’s shutdown so far. It is said that the production will resume next month, but it is difficult to resume at present. The increase of supply side is limited, the seasonal purchasing pressure of demand is small, the possibility of price fluctuation is small, and the main trend is stable operation.

International crude oil callback, and the terminal road project is affected by cold weather, the demand of asphalt terminal market is low, and the domestic asphalt price is declining. According to the price monitoring data of the business association, the asphalt price on December 25 was 2470 yuan / ton, which was 0.40% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

In the process of continuous improvement of international crude oil market, it is reported that mutated virus has been found in the UK, and most cities in the UK have implemented strict City closure measures. A number of countries around the world have suspended air traffic with the UK, and the demand for crude oil has been significantly restrained. This week, the international crude oil price had a correction, with WTI crude oil price down 2.05% and Brent crude oil price down 1.76%.

Overall, the domestic asphalt market demand fell to a low level. The results show that the temperature in North and central China turns cold, and the demand for terminal asphalt is weak; the terminal projects in South and southwest China are relatively stable, and the rigid demand is released steadily; in East China and Shandong, due to the weather temperature, the road construction projects are limited, and the demand for terminal asphalt drops to a low level; in Northeast and Northwest China, the rigid demand for asphalt basically ends, and the demand for asphalt is weak. Overall, the demand for asphalt in the North has basically ended, while that in the South has remained rigid.

Analysts from business news agency believe that when vaccination continues to benefit the crude oil market, it is reported that the new coronavirus mutates in the UK, the demand for crude oil in the international market loses support, and the international oil price begins to callback. In addition, the domestic asphalt market demand has dropped to a low level, and it is expected that the domestic asphalt price will follow the crude oil price callback.