I. Price trend
The price of zinc is rising all the way this week, according to Business society data. December 15 The domestic spot market metal zinc price 25642.50 yuan/ton, compared to last weekend (December 10) domestic spot market metal zinc price 24852.50 yuan/ton, the price rose 790.00 yuan/ton, rose 3.18%, compared with a year earlier year-on-year rise 11.33%.
This week, the main zinc ore factory ex-factory price this weekend at 26202.86 yuan/ton, compared to last week’s end zinc prices 25517.14 yuan/ton, rose 685.72 yuan/ton, or 2.69%, compared with a year earlier year-on-year rise 8.05%.
Second, the market trend analysis
Products: Although the price of zinc this week is not rising, but the spot market has continued to increase trend. At the same time this week futures performance, from the early 25005 yuan/ton rose to 25525 yuan/ton, or 2.08%. The rise of the futures zinc pushes the spot market for the zinc rally. As of December 15, the Shanghai region Biodiesel zinc price of 25450-25550 yuan/ton, 25400-25500 yuan/ton, the Yangtze River non-ferrous Metal spot market biodiesel zinc reported 25480-26300 yuan/ton, zinc quote 25430-25500 yuan/ton, the above are included in the tax price. Futures, the spot market both rose this week, Zinc City market.
Inventory: As of December 15, the London LME market zinc ingot Inventory of 193750 tons, compared to the end of last week’s zinc ingot inventory of 201125 tons, this week, inventory reduction of 7375 tons, a reduction of 3.67%, inventory levels in December 2008 since the lowest level. As of December 15, the Shanghai Hkfe had a total zinc stock of 70561 tonnes this week, up 4789 tonnes from last week’s inventory and an increase of 7.28%. The growth of zinc stock in Shanghai futures market has a negative effect on zinc price, which increases the risk of zinc price drop.
Fundamentals of Supply and demand: London December 13, the international lead and Zinc research Group (ILZSG) released Wednesday data shows that the October global zinc supply gap expanded to 36,900 tons, September revised to a shortage of 35,900 tons. 2017 1-October, global zinc market shortage of 401,000 tons, the same period last year, a shortfall of 195,000 tons. World Metals Statistics Bureau (WBMS) December 13 on its website published data show that the first 10 months of this year, the global supply of zinc market shortage of 504,000 tons, 2016 year for the shortfall of 202,000 tons. Inventory can be reported to increase by 7800 tonnes during October. In January-October this year, China’s demand rose 0.8% from a year earlier. China’s zinc consumption in 2017 was about 6.7 million tons, while China’s zinc market still had a supply gap of 200,000 tons. China’s refining zinc production decreased by 2.2% year-on-year. China’s October special high-grade zinc imports of 61,000 tons, so the 1-10-month import cumulative of 453,000 tons, compared with the same period last year increased 77,000 tons. International and domestic zinc market demand has increased, the gap has widened significantly, zinc market positive.
Macro: According to Thursday data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s November official manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rebounded to 51.8 after the market was expected to fall to 51.4. Production indices and New order indices rebounded, with the purchase index rising to a higher rate this year. PMI forecasts rebound and producer services business activity index hits a new high in the year. The overall economic environment is better than expected, conducive to the growth of the manufacturing industry, led to the growth of non-ferrous metals and zinc.
Iii. outlook for the future
Zinc market This week a mixed news, zinc price drop risk increase.
Positive: 1, the London LME inventory level continued to decline this week, inventory levels have fallen to the lowest level since December 2008; the international market for zinc stocks continued to decline, indicating that the international market demand for zinc is relatively strong, to boost international zinc price rise. 2, the international market zinc gap, to boost the international market zinc price increase, 3, the domestic economic environment exceeding expectations, driving the growth of non-ferrous metals industry, the use of zinc prices.
Negative aspect: Shanghai Hkfe stock has risen sharply, indicating that the domestic supply of zinc is relatively sufficient, and demand relative performance is poor, the increase in demand is not enough to offset the negative effect of increase in supply, the risk of oversupply increases.
At this stage is still the low season of zinc demand, although there is good news, but still not enough to make up for the market demand for the lack of concern. Business analyst that, from the demand for fundamental analysis, the future demand for zinc is still not enough to support the continued rise in zinc prices, and the early zinc price rose to 10 years the highest, zinc price drop space is still in the future, the price of zinc or will be a small decline, investors need to beware of the risk of
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