According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 13th to 17th (as of 15:00), the price of methanol in the East China port market in China first increased from 2288 yuan/ton and then fell to around 2280 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.38% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 0.11%, and a year-on-year drop of 7.19%. Methanol in mainland China is experiencing a weak decline, with no external support for olefin production. Coupled with the accumulation of inventory by mainland enterprises, high supply is absolutely suppressing market prices, and the downstream purchasing atmosphere is not strong. The average price of methanol in the port market has strengthened, with a focus on actively reducing inventory.
As of the close on October 17th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2314 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2318 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2264 yuan/ton. It closed at 2272 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 24 yuan or 1.05% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 653713 lots, with a position of 1058725 and a daily increase of 19443.
On the cost side, the pattern of coal supply reduction and demand increase has become apparent, driving up coal prices and supporting a rebound in cost. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, traditional downstream demand is flat, procurement mentality is cautious, enterprises actively ship, and market prices passively decline. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss of equipment exceeds the recovery amount, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on October 16th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $324.5-325.5 per ton, down $1 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 93.5-94.5 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 269.5-270.5 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton.
The future forecast shows that mainland methanol enterprises and traders have a clear intention to ship, but the overall market supply may increase. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will be consolidating and observing.