Price: The average price in East China is 7200 yuan/ton, with peak and valley values of 8000 yuan/ton in May and 6800 yuan/ton in June (price difference of 1200 yuan/ton).
Key factors:
1. Supply led price fluctuations: At the beginning of the year, Guangxi Huayi Parking and Yangtze BASF’s load reduction caused regional supply shortages and cross regional cargo transfers, leading to price surges. After the device was restored in June, coupled with slow recovery of terminal demand, prices fell back.
2. Price difference drives profit changes: During the period of tight supply, the price of acrylic acid skyrocketed due to maintenance/parking, far exceeding the increase in raw material propylene, resulting in a significant expansion of gross profit. In June, the demand for supply recovery was weak, prices fell, and cost support was weak, resulting in a narrowing of gross profit.
Future prospects:
In the second half of 2025, China’s acrylic acid industry will see a concentrated release of 740000 tons of planned production capacity, with new production capacity mainly concentrated in North and South China. Accompanying the implementation of production capacity is the significant deepening of integrated supporting facilities, which will promote the balance of internal production capacity allocation in various regions. The regional equilibrium distribution of production capacity or the promotion of market competition upgrading within the region is expected to continue to increase the intensity of the game between enterprises.
As micro competition intensifies, the overall pattern of the industry is evolving towards higher concentration. The integration of production capacity and the coordinated support of upstream and downstream are becoming the core engines of industry development – enhancing industrial concentration and improving the industrial chain, forming the dual main theme of the future evolution of the acrylic acid market.
In the second half of the year, the market still faces a severe test of dual expansion of supply and demand, and profit volatility will become the focus. The price operation logic is clear, anchoring two major dimensions:
Cost side pressure: Weak international crude oil expectations are transmitted to the raw material propylene, weakening its cost support for acrylic acid;
Loose supply and demand: The continuous expansion of acrylic acid and downstream industries has highlighted the pressure of oversupply, and the structural contradiction of “strong supply and weak demand” has further solidified in the expansion cycle.
Export will become a key variable: It is expected that the export of acrylic acid will continue to grow in the second half of 2025. By diverting the export volume of enterprises and regulating social demand, it will provide positive support for prices. At the same time, the increase in domestic production capacity will squeeze the import space, and it is expected that the import volume will show a narrow contraction compared to the first half of the year.
Taking into account multiple factors such as weak cost support, loose supply, export hedging, and import contraction, the average annual price of acrylic acid market in the second half of 2025 may slightly decline compared to the first half. Under the resonance of capacity release and cost pressure, the overall profit margin of the industry is facing further compression.