According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated and rose from March 31 to April 7, 2025. On March 31st, the benchmark price of toluene was 6060 yuan/ton, and on April 7th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6230 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.81%. During this cycle, the trend of crude oil first rose and then fell. Last weekend, crude oil fell sharply, which dragged down the mentality of the spot market and weakened the market after the holiday. During the period, the pre holiday purchasing intentions of the disproportionation and oil blending industries in Shandong were relatively strong, and the sales situation in the region was good. The overall inventory of refineries was low, and their quotations were relatively firm. Overall, the toluene market showed an upward trend followed by a downward trend this week due to the impact of pre holiday purchasing intentions.
Cost wise: International crude oil futures plummeted on April 4th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $61.99 per barrel, a decrease of $4.96 or 7.4%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $65.58 per barrel, a decrease of $4.56 or 6.5%. Affected by US tariff policies, oil prices have plummeted for two consecutive trading days, with WTI experiencing a cumulative drop of nearly $10. Investors are concerned about the risk of economic recession caused by the escalation of global trade conflicts. According to crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society, based on the subsequent impact of current US tariff policies, crude oil may enter a new cycle in the long term. The supply-demand balance may be disrupted and enter the process of rebalancing again. In the short term, given that countries are attempting to negotiate lower tariffs or impose retaliatory tariffs, tariffs may change and oil prices may fluctuate significantly in the short term.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of April 7th, East China Company quoted 6100 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6200 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6350-6450 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6200 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On April 7th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, and the current execution price is 7200 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and selling normally, with a price reduction of 400 yuan/ton compared to March 28th. As of April 4th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $778-780 per ton FOB Korea and $803-805 per ton CFR China.
Market forecast: Affected by the news of US tariffs, the overall commodity market will weaken, crude oil prices will significantly decline, and the atmosphere in the spot market will be weak. In terms of supply, there have been more incoming goods from the East China region recently, and the overall market supply is relatively loose. On the demand side, the downstream overall maintains on-demand procurement, but the demand is urgent. Overall, the recent supply of toluene in the market has been relatively loose, and the spot market is under pressure. It is expected that the market will mainly operate steadily and weakly in the short term.