According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 31st, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 7000-7400 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8400-8900 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7500-7800 yuan/ton. In early October, driven by favorable costs, there was some upward trend, but downstream demand did not show significant improvement. The filament market was sluggish in the middle and late months, and the gains at the beginning of the month were gradually consumed. The polyester filament market was not prosperous during the peak season of September and October.

In terms of cost, the recent Middle East conflict has not yet had a substantial impact on crude oil supply. Geopolitical risk premiums have been released, coupled with the return of Libyan crude oil production to the market and a bearish EIA monthly report, international oil prices have plummeted by more than 4%, dragging the polyester raw material market to continuously decline. Cost side support has collapsed, and the spread of pessimistic sentiment in the periphery has suppressed poor market buying. Prices have shown a downward trend in mid to late October. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of October 31, the average spot price of PTA in the East China region was 4881 yuan per ton.

In terms of supply and demand, the strong performance on the cost side during the National Day holiday directly pushed up the price of filament. As a result, downstream weaving companies have followed suit and increased their procurement volume to cope with price increases, leading to a significant production and sales peak in the filament market and a significant decrease in inventory levels. However, this peak in production and sales did not last long and instead consumed some future demand ahead of schedule. After a large amount of replenishment, weaving enterprises have abundant raw material inventory, but there is a lag effect in the rise of fabric prices, coupled with the price cutting behavior of end customers, which limits the increase in fabric prices. This has led to a narrow profit margin for weaving enterprises and difficulty in alleviating financial pressure. However, there has been no significant improvement in terminal demand, and the order situation in the textile market is still not optimistic. Daily production mainly relies on inventory consumption, and enterprises have a weak willingness to continue hoarding goods, resulting in limited demand growth, which constrains the market trend of filament yarn. In the second half of the year, with the decline in raw material costs, the terminal market was affected by the mentality of “buying up instead of buying down”, and the purchasing willingness was generally low, resulting in relatively insufficient confidence in the subsequent market. Under the enormous pressure of supply-demand imbalance, filament enterprises have launched the concession shipping mode twice this month. Most enterprises have failed to balance their production and sales, and polyester filament manufacturers are still under pressure. The risk of accumulating inventory has increased, further dragging down filament prices.

Overall, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the future geopolitical situation will remain uncertain, with fluctuating and uncertain impacts on the oil market. There are concerns about weak demand prospects. Against the backdrop of the off-season for consumption, the fundamentals of crude oil are still not optimistic. Overall, there is no significant positive boost to the filament market, coupled with increasing supply pressure and increased willingness of enterprises to ship, the market focus may decline. It is expected that the polyester filament market will weaken and consolidate in the short term,