1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene showed a trend of first falling and then rising this month. On May 1st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7830 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, the price was 7470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.6% compared to the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of crude oil, in the first half of the month, with the deepening of macro risk aversion and cautious trading atmosphere in the energy market, Gulf News reported on May 5th that Saudi Arabia has lowered crude oil futures prices in the Asian market; The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company of the United Arab Emirates announced that it will reduce crude oil shipments by 5% from May to seek a balance between supply and demand of crude oil; The unexpected increase in crude oil inventories in the United States has deepened market concerns about economic recession, and the oil market has developed in a volatile manner.

In mid May, the US crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased. The EIA monthly report predicts that US crude oil production will increase by about 5% in 2023, and fuel demand will increase by 1%. It is expected that US crude oil production will increase by 5.1% to 12.53 million barrels per day in 2023, and the oil production of major shale oil producing areas in the US will reach a historic high in June; The United States intends to purchase 3 million barrels of sour crude oil to supplement its strategic oil reserves that are about to run out.

In the second half of the month, the United States initially reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, avoiding the risk of default, but there are still expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve; Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the current goal of Russia and OPEC+is to ensure a balance between supply and demand of crude oil to maintain market stability.

The crude oil price fluctuated and fluctuated in May. On May 31st, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil in the trading company was 72.67 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -5.35% compared to the beginning of this month (76.78 US dollars per barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 77.10 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -4.02% compared to the beginning of this month (80.33 US dollars per barrel).

Downstream, domestic PX prices have shown a downward trend this month. On May 1st, the benchmark price of PX was 9000 yuan/ton. On May 31st, the price dropped to 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.78%. In May, PX supply slightly increased, and the domestic PX operating rate was over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some PX devices, the domestic PX price trend declined due to the increase in supply.

In terms of OX, the overall price of OX has shown a stepwise downward trend this month. On May 1st, the price was 8800 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, the price was 8100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month, with a decrease of 7.95%. The downstream phthalic anhydride market of OX is stabilizing, while the downstream plasticizer market is declining. Demand is mainly in demand, and the overall upward momentum of the adjacent benzene market is weakening. There is still downward pressure, and the adjacent benzene market will temporarily stabilize in the future.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices have fallen and risen this month. On May 1st, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8648.6 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, it was 8428.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220.4 yuan/ton or 2.55% compared to the beginning of the month. The domestic refined oil market still lacks demand support, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the sales pressure of main units at the end of the month is high, resulting in a downward pressure on domestic gasoline prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In terms of crude oil, the OPEC+alliance will hold a meeting in Vienna on June 4th to decide on production policies; As the weather warms up, gasoline demand is improving, but downstream demand for fine chemicals is weak, providing limited price support, with gasoline primarily in demand; The current US economy is better than expected and the risk of debt default has decreased, leading to an increase in short-term market risk appetite. Affected by fundamentals, the mixed xylene market is operating weakly, with mixed xylene operators mainly consolidating in the short term. Pay attention to the market trends of crude oil and gasoline, as well as the impact of mixed xylene and downstream equipment dynamics, port inventory, and external markets on the price of mixed xylene.