Contradiction between supply and demand, domestic light rare earth market decline difficult to change

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the domestic rare earth market price index has declined, and the domestic light rare earth market is difficult to reverse its downward trend. On March 23, the rare earth index stood at 539 points, down 46.47% from the highest point in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 98.89% from the lowest point 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

 

The price trend of domestic metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide declined. As of the 24th day, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 680000 yuan/ton, and the price fell 16.56% in March; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 557500 yuan/ton, down 17.41% in March; The price of neodymium oxide was 595000 yuan/ton, down 15.60% in March; The price of neodymium metal was 745000 yuan/ton, down 16.76% in March; The price of praseodymium metal was 742500 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 16.57% in March; The price of praseodymium oxide was 555000 yuan/ton, with a 17.47% decline in March.

 

The recent decline in the rare earth market is difficult to change, and the order situation of downstream magnetic material enterprises has remained sluggish. Magnetic material factories mainly consume existing inventory. The focus of the actual transaction price of rare earth continues to move downward, putting pressure on the rare earth market. In the near future, the prices of rare earth metals and oxides have fallen simultaneously, and the cost inversion of raw materials in metal factories is still difficult to alleviate in the short term. Some metal factories have reduced their production burden. Recently, downstream user demand has not significantly increased, rare earth manufacturers continue to release their production capacity, and some traders still show a slight lack of confidence in the future market. Negative factors overlap, resulting in lower prices in the domestic light rare earth market.

 

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According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is acceptable. According to data released by the China Automobile Industry Association, the national automobile production and sales in February reached 2032000 and 1976000 units, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 27.5% and 19.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.9% and 13.5%. In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles nationwide reached 552000 and 525000, respectively, with a month-on-month increase of 30% and 28.7%, a year-on-year increase of 48.8% and 55.9%, and a market share of 26.6%. Although the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles has increased, downstream permanent magnet procurement is very rare, and the price decline in the light rare earth market is difficult to change.

 

Recently, the procurement of rare earth downstream businesses is weak, and demand is difficult to improve. In addition, the upstream supply is sufficient, the supply and demand contradiction is acute, and the transaction situation is poor. In the short term, the decline of the rare earth market is difficult to change. In the long term, the sustainable development of the new energy vehicles, wind power, and variable frequency air conditioning fields in the downstream of rare earth, as well as the rapid development of emerging industries, will greatly increase the demand for rare earth functional materials, and the demand for the rare earth industry will further increase.

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