1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, the nickel price first rose and then fell in September, showing an “n” trend. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 150133.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the nickel price fell slightly to 146566.67 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 2.38% and a year-on-year increase of 28.72%. The nickel price has fluctuated upward since it fell to the lowest price of the year on April 21 this year, reaching the highest price of 155100 yuan / ton on September 10, and then the high callback.

Macro factors

The dollar fell early this month, boosting metal prices. In the middle and late ten days, the US inflation data was lower than expected, the US dollar rebounded and metal prices fell. Domestic industrial added value in August fell to 5.3% lower than expected.

Nickel industry chain

Supply: in August, the actual output of ferronickel from China and Indonesia totaled 114800 tons, with a month on month increase of 1.98% and a year-on-year increase of 18.91%. The main mining area in the Philippines is about to enter the rainy season in October, the global shipping market is tight, and the shipping cost is rising sharply; Domestic ports are congested, ship demurrage is high, and the cost of factory raw materials increases.

Import: according to customs statistics, China’s nickel ore import volume in August was 5.7771 million tons, with a month on month increase of 11.37% and a year-on-year increase of 53.43%. In August, China’s ferronickel import volume was 349700 tons, with a month on month increase of 24.40% and a year-on-year increase of 19.78%. In August, China’s Refined Nickel import volume was 29243.762 tons, with a month on month increase of 30.18% and a year-on-year increase of 186.31%. The export volume of refined nickel was 114.83 tons, with a month on month decrease of 54.73% and a year-on-year decrease of 89.20%.

Downstream: 300 series stainless steel decreased by 12.97% to 1.28 million tons in September compared with August. Assuming that stainless steel maintains high-intensity production reduction in the fourth quarter, the annual ferronickel gap is 50900 tons, and the supply and demand of ferronickel is in a relatively tight balance from September to October. In August, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles were 309000 and 321000 respectively, an increase of 1.8 times year-on-year; The loading capacity of power battery was 12.6gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 144.9% and a month on month increase of 11.2%.

To sum up: there were some changes in the fundamentals of nickel in September, and the nickel mine was always tight, but the dual control upgrading of many domestic provinces and the production reduction of the downstream stainless steel industry affected the production capacity of more than 370000 tons. As a raw material, nickel was worried about excess and put pressure on the nickel price. In October, in the rainy season in the Philippines, the supply will be further tightened. Under the condition of weak supply and demand, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate between 140-150 million yuan / ton in October.