According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall market for mixed xylene will decline from November 1st to 11th, 2024. On November 1st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 5920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34% from 5900 yuan/ton on November 11th. The xylene market has fluctuated downward in this cycle, with overall supply being loose and downstream procurement enthusiasm not high. The market is generally on a wait-and-see attitude.

Cost wise: As of the 8th, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures at $70.38 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.87 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have mainly fluctuated, with little overall change. On the one hand, OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, the local economy in Asia has improved, and market panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. However, geopolitical tensions have eased, and this news is bearish for the international oil market. There is a long short game, and overall, crude oil first rose and then fell during the cycle.

Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec’s xylene prices have fluctuated. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotations have remained unchanged from the previous day. As of November 11th, East China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5900-5950 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5900-6000 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and demand support is weak

On November 11th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price being 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from November 1st. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of November 8th, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were $809-811/ton FOB Korea and $834-836/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: The crude oil market trend is weak, with limited cost support. In terms of supply, refinery inventories have remained stable and weak in the near future, and port inventories have also been running at a low level, resulting in less supply pressure. On the demand side, downstream procurement intentions are biased towards rigid demand. Overall, the market atmosphere has been relatively weak recently, and the price trend has been volatile.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has risen this week. As of November 8th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11975.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.51% compared to the beginning of this month (11350.00 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: The prices of raw materials such as sulfuric acid and fluorite have mainly increased. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department needs to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of rising prices in the fluorite market this week is strong. According to the monitoring system of Business Society, the price trend of domestic fluorite has risen this week. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3606.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.30% from the beginning of the week price of 3525 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.53%.

On the demand side: The downstream refrigerant market has seen an increase, with faster inventory consumption and a focus on on-demand procurement. Some models of devices are expected to undergo maintenance or shutdown. Overall, the market’s consumption of raw materials is still limited.

Market forecast: The market price of hydrofluoric acid is expected to rise in the near future. The market price of raw materials has risen accordingly, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable at a high level in the later period.

The recent supply and demand pattern of the acrylic acid market is an important factor affecting its price trend. This week, the supply and demand pattern of the acrylic acid market remains tight, which is one of the main reasons driving its price upward.

1、 Market price trend

As of November 5th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6850.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (6837.50 yuan/ton). The negotiation intention for the price of acrylic acid in the East China market is around 6600-6650 yuan/ton, while the price in the South China market is around 6650-6700 yuan/ton, both of which have increased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. This upward trend is consistent with the continuous push up of the previous market situation, indicating the strong momentum of the acrylic acid market.

2、 Market supply and demand situation

Supply side: Recently, some enterprises have resumed work, supplementing local sources of goods and easing the local supply shortage. However, due to the rise in prices of raw materials such as acrylic acid and propylene, the production costs of some manufacturers have increased, resulting in a certain impact on market supply. Nevertheless, the overall supply side remains stable, providing sufficient support for the market.

Demand side: The downstream industry maintains stable growth in demand for acrylic acid. With the economic recovery and the increase of industrial production activities, the demand for chemical raw materials such as acrylic acid in downstream industries is gradually increasing. However, due to price increases, some downstream companies may adopt a wait-and-see attitude and replenish as needed, rather than stockpiling in large quantities.

3、 Raw material cost

The price of propylene, the raw material for acrylic acid, has also risen recently, which has increased the production cost of acrylic acid. In order to maintain profit levels, some production enterprises have had to reduce supply or increase prices, further pushing up the market price of acrylic acid. The rise in raw material costs is also one of the important reasons for the continued upward trend of the acrylic acid market this week. As of November 5th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6843.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% compared to the beginning of this month (6785.75 yuan/ton).

4、 Market atmosphere

With the rise in acrylic acid prices and the intensification of market supply and demand contradictions, the market atmosphere has become more active. Some downstream enterprises have begun to actively stock up to cope with potential supply shortages in the future. At the same time, some investors have also begun to pay attention to the acrylic acid market and seek investment opportunities. The active market atmosphere and active participation of investors have further promoted the upward trend of the acrylic acid market.

5、 Market outlook

Price trend: Under the favorable guidance of supply and demand combined with cost, the price of acrylic acid in the market is expected to continue to rise. However, as prices continue to rise, downstream companies’ acceptance may be limited, so price increases may gradually slow down.

Market mentality: There is a strong bullish atmosphere within the market, but a wait-and-see mentality is gradually emerging downstream. Some downstream enterprises may adopt more cautious procurement strategies to cope with the risks brought by price fluctuations.

In summary, the continued upward trend in the acrylic acid market this week is the result of multiple factors working together. In the foreseeable future, the supply-demand imbalance in the acrylic acid market will continue to exist and may affect its price trend. Investors and downstream enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and price changes in order to adjust their investment strategies and procurement plans in a timely manner.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been consolidating this month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 1598 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1582 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.42%. On October 31st, the baking soda commodity index was 105.00, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 55.48% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 18.95% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is consolidating and operating. The factory price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1400-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand for purchasing, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1614 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.86% and a decrease of 36.89% compared to the same period last year.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 31st, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 7000-7400 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8400-8900 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7500-7800 yuan/ton. In early October, driven by favorable costs, there was some upward trend, but downstream demand did not show significant improvement. The filament market was sluggish in the middle and late months, and the gains at the beginning of the month were gradually consumed. The polyester filament market was not prosperous during the peak season of September and October.

In terms of cost, the recent Middle East conflict has not yet had a substantial impact on crude oil supply. Geopolitical risk premiums have been released, coupled with the return of Libyan crude oil production to the market and a bearish EIA monthly report, international oil prices have plummeted by more than 4%, dragging the polyester raw material market to continuously decline. Cost side support has collapsed, and the spread of pessimistic sentiment in the periphery has suppressed poor market buying. Prices have shown a downward trend in mid to late October. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of October 31, the average spot price of PTA in the East China region was 4881 yuan per ton.

In terms of supply and demand, the strong performance on the cost side during the National Day holiday directly pushed up the price of filament. As a result, downstream weaving companies have followed suit and increased their procurement volume to cope with price increases, leading to a significant production and sales peak in the filament market and a significant decrease in inventory levels. However, this peak in production and sales did not last long and instead consumed some future demand ahead of schedule. After a large amount of replenishment, weaving enterprises have abundant raw material inventory, but there is a lag effect in the rise of fabric prices, coupled with the price cutting behavior of end customers, which limits the increase in fabric prices. This has led to a narrow profit margin for weaving enterprises and difficulty in alleviating financial pressure. However, there has been no significant improvement in terminal demand, and the order situation in the textile market is still not optimistic. Daily production mainly relies on inventory consumption, and enterprises have a weak willingness to continue hoarding goods, resulting in limited demand growth, which constrains the market trend of filament yarn. In the second half of the year, with the decline in raw material costs, the terminal market was affected by the mentality of “buying up instead of buying down”, and the purchasing willingness was generally low, resulting in relatively insufficient confidence in the subsequent market. Under the enormous pressure of supply-demand imbalance, filament enterprises have launched the concession shipping mode twice this month. Most enterprises have failed to balance their production and sales, and polyester filament manufacturers are still under pressure. The risk of accumulating inventory has increased, further dragging down filament prices.

Overall, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the future geopolitical situation will remain uncertain, with fluctuating and uncertain impacts on the oil market. There are concerns about weak demand prospects. Against the backdrop of the off-season for consumption, the fundamentals of crude oil are still not optimistic. Overall, there is no significant positive boost to the filament market, coupled with increasing supply pressure and increased willingness of enterprises to ship, the market focus may decline. It is expected that the polyester filament market will weaken and consolidate in the short term,