According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene has significantly decreased recently (9.28-10.13). On October 13th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 8000 yuan/ton, while on September 28th, the benchmark price was 8490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.77%.

Domestic inventory slightly increases, xylene market drops from high levels

The inventory of mixed xylene at the port has increased compared to before the holiday. It is understood that as of October 12th, the inventory of xylene in East China was around 26000 tons; The inventory of xylene in South China is around 3000 tons. Inventory remains low.

Asia US Arbitrage Space Narrows Down Prices of Heterogeneous Grade Xylene in Asia

The demand for mixed blending in North America has declined in the third quarter, and the speed of a large amount of aromatic hydrocarbon outflow from Japan and South Korea has slowed down, easing the tight supply pattern of aromatic hydrocarbons in Asia in the short term. The price of isomeric grade xylene in Asia has significantly decreased compared to before the holiday, and the support for domestic prices has weakened. As of October 13th, the price of Asian isomeric grade xylene is between 922 to 923 US dollars per ton.

International crude oil has significantly decreased compared to before the holiday, and xylene cost support has weakened

The international crude oil futures market is operating at a high level, and xylene continues to receive cost support. Since mid September, WTI has reached the $90 mark, reaching a new high since November 2022. As of September 24th, the November contract settlement price of US WTI crude oil futures was $90.03 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures settled at $91.96 per barrel in December. However, in recent days, the market has weighed the supply concerns brought about by the ban on Russian refined oil exports and the risk of a potential decrease in demand for production capacity due to future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, causing a short-term stalemate after crude oil prices surged.

Downstream PX Construction Continues 70% Xylene with Hard Needed Support

The significant decline in international crude oil compared to before the holiday has led to a slight decline in the cost center of xylene. As of October 12th, the WTI11 contract closed at $83.50 per barrel, with a settlement of 82.91 yuan per barrel; The Brent 12 contract closed at $86.28 per barrel and settled at $86.00 per barrel..

The demand for refined oil supports the domestic mixed blending market, which still has some support for toluene

Affected by the trend of crude oil, the diesel market prices have significantly decreased after the holiday. However, the operating load of outdoor infrastructure projects, industrial and mining industries has gradually increased, coupled with the support of agricultural autumn harvest demand, the demand side supports the domestic diesel market. As the weather turns cold and winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, the peak season of heating oil demand has begun, providing some support for the diesel market. Recently, the domestic diesel market price trend has slightly rebounded.

At the beginning of the holiday, gasoline was affected by the lower cost of crude oil prices, coupled with an increase in inventory in some refineries, resulting in a significant decline in the domestic gasoline market price trend. However, as some intermediaries returned after the holiday to replenish inventory, the production and sales rate of Shandong refineries exceeded 100%, and the domestic gasoline market price slightly increased with the trend.

Future forecast: In the short term, the international crude oil market is volatile, with strong uncertainty in the cost of xylene. However, after the holiday, port inventory increases. Overall, the price of mixed xylene is highly volatile in the short term.

Recently (9.28-10.12), the overall market for dichloromethane has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 11th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2935 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.84% from the 2990 yuan/ton before the holiday. The price of raw material methanol has weakened and stabilized, while the price of liquid chlorine has fluctuated slightly, and the cost support for dichloromethane has weakened slightly; The domestic production of methane chloride is around 7.7%, and the inventory pressure of enterprises is not high. The factory price of dichloromethane is temporarily stable, and as of October 12th, the factory price of mainstream dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong region is around 2900-3000 yuan/ton.

Recently (9.28-10.12), the domestic methane chloride production has been basically normal, with an overall production rate of around 7.7%.

Recently (9.28-10.12), the raw material methanol has slightly declined, the price of liquid chlorine has stabilized, and the cost support for dichloromethane has slightly weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 12th, the spot price of methanol was 2450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.14% from the 2478 yuan/ton before the holiday. As of October 12th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 400 yuan/ton.

The domestic production of methane chloride is around 7.7%, and the inventory pressure of enterprises is not high. In addition, news of planned maintenance of some devices in the later stage has stimulated the high factory price of dichloromethane to remain stable; However, the inventory of dichloromethane in the market and downstream is relatively concentrated, and there are currently few market inquiries, resulting in a small shipment volume for enterprises.

Future Market Forecast: According to methane chloride data analysts from Business Society, the pressure on dichloromethane enterprises is not high. In addition, the supply side is expected to tighten in the future. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will consolidate at a high level in the short term, and prices may slightly increase after the maintenance plan is implemented.

Product name: MIBK

Spot price: 17600 yuan/ton.

Market analysis: After the holiday, the MIBK market remained stable and the reference price discussed in the East China market was between 17500-17600 yuan/ton. The release of market procurement demand after the holiday is limited, and the atmosphere for inquiries is insufficient. The raw material acetone continues to decline after the holiday, and the cost side is also difficult to support. However, the supply of goods in the MIBK market is limited, and the traders have a decent mentality, with little intention to sell. On the other hand, the factory mainly delivers orders, with few new orders.

Aftermarket: Short term MIBK market range adjustment, stable market progress.

The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuates and rises after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 8th, the DBP price was 10275 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.24% compared to the DBP price of 10250 yuan/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, the raw material n-butanol fluctuated and increased, while the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and decreased. The price of isooctanol stabilized strongly, with significant cost support. Downstream demand was average, and plasticizer DBP enterprises started operating at a low level. The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and increased.

Strong consolidation of n-butanol prices after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 8th, the price of n-butanol was 9066.67 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of n-butanol on October 1st, which was 9066.67 yuan/ton. After the holiday, some enterprises saw an increase in the factory price of n-butanol, with low inventory of n-butanol manufacturers and tight spot supply on the market. Downstream demand was cautious in purchasing according to quantity, and the rise in n-butanol prices was supported significantly.

After the holiday, the market for raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of October 8th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.29% compared to the price of 8712.50 yuan/ton on October 1st. During the Double Festival period, crude oil prices plummeted, neighboring benzene prices fell, and raw material prices fell. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm was poor, and after the festival, the price of phthalic anhydride fell. In the future, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and the cost support for plasticizers weakened.

After the holiday, the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on October 8th was 12280 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.16% compared to the price of isooctanol on October 1st, which was 12020 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell. During the Double Festival period, downstream enterprises of isooctanol actively purchased, and the price of isooctanol surged after the festival. However, after the festival, customers replenished their inventory of isooctanol, which was less than expected. The high price of isooctanol fell, and the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that after the holiday, the prices of n-butanol have consolidated strongly, while the prices of isooctanol have first increased and then decreased, while the prices of phthalic anhydride have fluctuated and fallen. Overall, with the increase in raw material prices and increased cost support for plasticizer DBP, it is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the rare earth market price index rose in September, and the domestic light and heavy rare earth market prices all rose. The rare earth index was 516 points on September 27, up 23 points from 493 points on the first day, a decrease of 48.76% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 90.41% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and metallic praseodymium neodymium in China have all increased. As of the end of the month, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 520000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.48%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 640000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.49%; The price of neodymium oxide is 532500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.41%; The price of neodymium metal is 660000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.12%; The price of metal praseodymium is 670000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.69%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 527500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.94%.

In early September, the domestic light rare earth market showed an upward trend. Due to the impact of regional rainfall weather, some rare earth mining enterprises were restricted in production, and some rare earth manufacturers took the initiative to reduce production, which further slowed down the growth rate of spot inventory in the market. Separation plants and metal plants in Sichuan region will have varying degrees of production reduction and shutdown behavior, and the price trend of light rare earth market will rise due to supply reduction. However, in the middle of the year, downstream resistance has intensified, and the procurement of inquiries has come to an end. In addition, downstream magnetic material enterprises have reduced new orders, intensified upstream and downstream competition, and the domestic light rare earth market price trend has remained stable. Overall, the light rare earth market trend in September has slightly increased.

The domestic market trend of heavy rare earth dysprosium series has increased, with the price of dysprosium oxide reaching 2.69 million yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 8.32% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.585 million yuan/ton, an increase of 6.38% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium metal was 33.35 million yuan/ton, an increase of 6.35% compared to the beginning of the month; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly increasing, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 8.5 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium reaching 10.7 million yuan/ton. In September, the trend of the heavy rare earth market rose, with an increase in inquiries and a tightening of spot supply. Affected by a slight increase in demand, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices rose. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream magnetic material companies are nearing the end of stocking, and the price increase in the heavy rare earth market is slowing down. The recent news of border closures in Myanmar has continued, providing market support for future rare earth prices and maintaining high prices in the heavy rare earth market. As the traditional peak season of “Golden Nine Silver Ten” approaches, the demand for new energy vehicles, industrial robots and other terminals is also constantly increasing. The demand is still positive, and there is still support for the domestic heavy rare earth market. Positive factors support the upward trend of domestic heavy rare earth prices.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 843000 and 846000 units respectively in August, with a month on month increase of 4.7% and 8.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 22% and 27%, respectively; From January to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 5.434 million and 5.374 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 36.9% and 39.2%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, coupled with the opening of the Golden Nine Silver Ten Year Plan, the demand for new energy has increased, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices. The price trend of the domestic heavy rare earth market has slightly increased.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, the export of rare earth and its products reached 9618 tons in August, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; From January to August, the cumulative export of rare earth and its products reached 79083 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. China’s rare earth commodity export volume increased, which to some extent supported the rare earth market prices.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources have issued the second batch of total control indicators for rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2023. The total control indicators for the second batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2023 are 120000 tons and 115000 tons, respectively. In 2023, the total control index of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 240000 tons and 230000 tons, respectively, an increase of 14.3% and 13.9% compared with 2022. The increase of mining output will correspondingly suppress the growth of rare earth market.

Future Market Forecast: As the holiday approaches, procurement has come to an end, and transportation has been affected to some extent. It is expected that the domestic rare earth market price trend will remain stable in the short term, with a lack of primary and renewable supply sources in the medium to long term. Dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, The global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow, and we are optimistic about the market prices of the rare earth industry for the long term.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China fell in September. On the first day, the market reported around 14100 yuan/ton, and on the 28th, it reported around 13710 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 2.77%. This month, the prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid have increased, and the cost of polyacrylamide has increased. However, enterprises in the main production area are operating normally, and the market has abundant spot supply. Downstream demand has not increased, and the current mainstream market of polyacrylamide is still weak and organized.

Raw material acrylonitrile: The acrylonitrile market continued to rise in September. As of September 28th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9825 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.71% from 9037 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The high price of raw material propylene is organized, and the cost of acrylonitrile is supported; ABS, one of the main downstream industries, maintains a high level of construction, and the demand for acrylonitrile forms support; The start of acrylonitrile production in September slightly decreased compared to August, and there was no pressure on acrylonitrile inventory. The acrylonitrile market continued to rise.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the acrylic acid market rose first and then fell in September, with a slight overall increase. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material propylene in the market fluctuated, and cost support was acceptable. Some enterprises experienced fluctuations in their equipment, resulting in a decrease in the utilization rate of production capacity in the acrylic acid industry, supporting market sentiment. Downstream inquiries and procurement continued to be in high demand. The focus of negotiations in the acrylic acid market was mainly on stability, and some enterprises increased their prices based on their own situation. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material propylene slightly decreased, with limited cost support. Some enterprise installations have restarted, and the market’s spot supply has increased. Downstream inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and high-end price negotiations in the market are slightly weak. Holders are actively shipping, and the acrylic acid market atmosphere is weak.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the Shandong liquefied gas civilian market rose first and then stabilized in September, with a slight decline at the end of the month. In early September, the liquefied gas market showed a significant upward trend. In early September, the CP surge was introduced, coupled with several consecutive increases in crude oil prices during the week. With strong support from the news, there was also a small amount of inventory on the market, and upstream goods were flowing smoothly. The liquefied gas market actively pushed up. The demand side is steadily following up, the weather is gradually turning cold, and the demand for civilian combustion is expected to increase. The demand for chemical industry is also following up in a golden and silver atmosphere. Subsequently, the market entered a period of volatility and decline, with liquefied gas prices rising to high levels. Downstream resistance was evident, and upstream began to give up profits and sell goods. In late September, there was an increase in enthusiasm for upstream cargo in the liquefied gas market, coupled with an increase in port supply and an increase in supply. In order to stimulate cargo movement, refinery prices fell.

Future forecast: In September, the overall focus of raw material cost prices will shift upwards, the overall fuel market will rise, and the cost of polyacrylamide will theoretically increase. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production area have normal production and sufficient market supply; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, and market transactions are stable. The actual transaction changes have not yet been significantly followed up. It is expected to remain stable and dominant in the short term.