1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 14th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6640 yuan/ton, which is 0.60% lower than the reference average price of 6680 yuan/ton on August 7th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 14th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6600 yuan/ton, which is 6433 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on August 7th. This week, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price increased by 2.59%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of thermal phosphoric acid fluctuated narrowly this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus is stable, and the cost still has support. Downstream demand is average, procurement is relatively cautious, and the thermal phosphoric acid market is stagnant. As of August 14th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6700 yuan/ton, while the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6500-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 5800-7500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus remained stable this week. At present, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is acceptable, with stable enterprise operations and tight market supply. Downstream procurement is on demand. As of August 14th, the quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 24000-24200 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is subject to negotiation.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society phosphoric acid analysts believe that recent transactions in the phosphoric acid market have been flat, there is still support on the cost side, and terminal demand needs to be released. Downstream caution is the main focus. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market price will remain stagnant in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in raw material prices.

Acetic anhydride prices fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 14th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5175 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.47% compared to the fluctuation of 5100 yuan/ton on August 4th last weekend. The price of raw material acetic acid has fluctuated and increased, the cost of acetic anhydride has increased, the production of acetic anhydride manufacturers is low, the supply of acetic anhydride has contracted, and the price of acetic anhydride has fluctuated and increased.

Acetic acid prices have significantly increased this week

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of August 14th, the price of acetic acid was 3383.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.41% compared to the price of 3150 yuan/ton on August 4th last weekend. Acetic acid enterprises are operating steadily, with a tight supply of acetic acid and a tight supply of acetic acid. The price of acetic acid has significantly increased, and the cost of acetic anhydride has increased. In the future, the upward momentum of acetic anhydride will increase.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s Acetic Anhydride Data believe that in terms of cost, the supply of acetic acid is tight, and the price of acetic acid is approaching the cost line, leading to a significant increase in the price of acetic acid; In terms of supply, the low starting point of acetic anhydride manufacturers has temporarily stabilized, and the supply of acetic anhydride has tightened. The upward momentum of acetic anhydride has increased, while downstream demand is cold, and the support for the upward trend of acetic anhydride is limited. Overall, in the future, the cost of acetic anhydride will rise and supply will tighten, while demand for acetic anhydride will be cold. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam on August 7th was 12987 yuan/ton, and on August 11th, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13100 yuan/ton. The price of caprolactam increased by 0.87% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of caprolactam has been operating at a high level with slight fluctuations. The price of pure benzene, the raw material, has increased, providing support on the cost side. Some maintenance devices have been restored, and market supply has increased. Downstream follow-up is slow, and demand performance is poor. Under loose supply conditions, the spot price of caprolactam began to decline. As of August 11th, the delivery price of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Caprolactam Liquid to East China is 13000 yuan/ton. Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam settlement price is 13600 yuan/ton, a liquid premium product, accepted and self picked up in June.

The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On August 7th, the price of pure benzene was 7675 yuan/ton. On August 11th, the price of pure benzene was 7800 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.66% compared to last week and a decrease of 4.38% compared to the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene rose to 7750 yuan/ton (with prices in Shandong and Hebei regions simultaneously increasing by 150 yuan/ton).

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to caprolactam analysts from Business Society, the recent price trend of raw material pure benzene is relatively strong, with strong cost support. However, there has been an increase in supply side spot goods and weak terminal demand. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the short-term price of caprolactam will be weak and volatile, with consolidation and operation being the main trend.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of July 25, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was referenced at 4533 yuan/ton. Compared with August 6 (referring to the price of dimethyl carbonate at 4600 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.45%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (8.6-8.10), the domestic dimethyl carbonate market overall showed a weak and declining trend. At the beginning of the week, the overall weakness of the dimethyl carbonate market was organized and operated, with little change in the market. Downstream demand was flat, and the demand side provided loose support for dimethyl carbonate. During the weekend, the overall weakness of the dimethyl carbonate market was slightly downward, and some dimethyl carbonate factories in some regions of China slightly lowered the price of dimethyl carbonate, with a reduction of around 100-200 yuan/ton, as of August 10th, The domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 4300-4600 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the overall market situation of dimethyl carbonate continues to show weak performance, with insufficient effective support on the market and a relatively light trading atmosphere. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly adjust to a narrow range and a weak range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

The price of plasticizer DOTP has increased significantly this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 8th, the price of DOTP was 11180 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.88% compared to the DOTP price of 10460 yuan/ton on July 30th. The price of isooctanol has skyrocketed, PTA prices have stopped rising and fallen, overall raw material costs have increased, downstream PVC market is weak, and demand for plasticizers remains weak. This week, the price of plasticizer DOTP has fluctuated and increased.

The price of isooctanol skyrocketed this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 8th was 11033.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.45% compared to the price of 9900 yuan/ton on July 30th. The planned and unexpected fluctuations in domestic octanol units have led to continuous tightening of the supply side, resulting in continuous increases in octanol prices. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. This week, the price of isooctanol has skyrocketed, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials has increased. The price of plasticizer DOTP has also risen this week. As the price of isooctanol rises to a high point, buying and chasing high sentiment has become cautious. In mid to late August, two sets of isooctanol units in Shandong and Jiangsu are planned to restart, and the supply side of the isooctanol market is expected to be loose. In the future, the downward pressure on isooctanol will increase.

PTA prices have stopped rising and falling this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the PTA price on August 8th was 5848.18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.55% compared to the PTA price on July 30th, which was 6000.91 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices have fluctuated and increased, PTA costs have risen, new PTA production has landed, PTA supply has increased, downstream construction is low, PTA demand is poor, PTA prices have stopped rising and fallen. This week, the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials has slowed down, and there is insufficient support for the price increase of plasticizer DOTP in the future.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the resumption of isooctanol production is insufficient support for the future surge in isooctanol prices. PTA prices have stopped rising and fallen, and the pressure on the cost decline of plasticizer product DOTP has increased; The demand for downstream PVC is weak, and the demand for plasticizers is cold; The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is 50%, and the supply of plasticizers is temporarily stable. In the future, there is insufficient support for cost increases, stable supply and weak demand, and weak support for plasticizer increases. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from July 31 to August 7, 2023, the auction price of crude benzene increased during the week, from 6581.25 yuan/ton last weekend to 7198.75 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 9.38%.

In terms of crude oil, overnight crude oil futures jumped sharply on Thursday. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $81.55 per barrel, an increase of $2.06 or 2.6%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $85.14 per barrel, an increase of $1.94 or 2.3%. On August 4th, the domestic SC crude oil market rose with the main contract settling at 622.1 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.55%. There are reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia will extend their independent production reduction period until September, or even longer, as supply tightening is expected to intensify.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has increased by a total of 400 yuan/ton during this cycle, with a current implementation of 7600 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7733 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton.

This week, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased. As of July 31st, the price of pure benzene was 7287 yuan/ton. On Friday (August 4th), the price of pure benzene was 7670 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.08% compared to last week and a decrease of 9.94 compared to the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has continued to rise for five consecutive weeks.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the trend of crude oil this week has been volatile, with pure benzene continuing to rise in the external market. Pure benzene in East China continues to rise, and the overall market supply is currently tight. Sinopec has raised the factory price of pure benzene twice in a row, with a cumulative increase of 400 yuan/ton. Supported by multiple positive factors, the price of pure benzene continues to rise, and the price of hydrogenated benzene has also risen within the week, with an increase of 350 to 400 yuan/ton.

During this cycle, the auction price of crude benzene continued to strengthen, with prices ranging from 7320 to 7325 yuan/ton in Shandong region, an increase of 620 yuan/ton. The Shanxi region implemented a price increase of 800 yuan per ton from 7000 to 7050 yuan per ton. On the supply side, the operating rate of coking enterprises has slightly declined this week, and the supply of crude benzene has tightened. In terms of demand, hydrogenation benzene enterprises have started to recover this week, with a slight rebound in demand. The prices in the main production areas of hydrogenation benzene are between 7650-7850 yuan/ton, and the current demand for crude benzene is still acceptable. Overall, the tight supply of pure benzene has driven the overall upward trend of the industrial chain, and the market trading situation has improved. In the future, there has been no significant change in supply and demand, and the trend of hydrogenated benzene will still follow the fluctuations of the pure benzene market. There is some resistance in the downstream of the high price of pure benzene, but the overall supply of pure benzene is tight, which has a certain boost to the market. It is expected that the high volatility trend in the crude benzene market will be the main trend in the short term.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong region increased from 9983.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10783.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 8.01%. Weekend prices increased by 30.97% year-on-year. On August 6th, the isooctanol commodity index was 79.29, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 42.33% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 125.58% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support and increased downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have significantly increased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 6738.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6645.75 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.37%. Weekend prices fell 7.45% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP market price has significantly increased this week. The price of DOP increased from 10441.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11133.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 6.62%. Weekend prices increased by 22.01% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have significantly increased, and downstream customers are actively increasing their purchases of isooctanol.

Future prospects

In mid August, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream propylene market slightly declined, with average cost support. The downstream DOP market has significantly increased, leading to an increase in downstream demand. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, copper prices have fluctuated in a narrow range this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation is 69900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09% from the 69835 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 16.43%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past three months, the price has dropped by 4% and increased by 8%. Recently, copper prices have been fluctuating.

Macroscopically, the US ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 46.4% in July, slightly lower than expected and shrinking for nine consecutive months; Manufacturing activity in the eurozone experienced its fastest contraction since May 2020 in July. The recent PMI data released in Asia shows that manufacturing activity in China, Japan, and South Korea remains weak, suppressing the outlook for metal demand. Recently, there have been frequent positive policies in China, but the bullish sentiment has basically materialized, making it difficult for market confidence to further rebound before more positive policies are announced.

Supply side: The mining side maintains abundant resources. In July, 7 refineries had maintenance plans, with a total impact of about 60000 tons. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production in July will be 902100 tons, a decrease of 15800 tons compared to the previous month. In August, there is only one refinery undergoing maintenance, and the domestic supply of electrolytic copper will increase month on month. Recently, there has not been much inflow of imported resources, but overall, the long-term resources of Lomo and Russian copper will supplement domestic spot goods.

On the demand side: In the traditional off-season of consumption, although the terminal demand is not strong, it still has resilience. Last week, the operating rate of refined copper rods was 59.73%, a decrease of 10.14 percentage points compared to the previous week; The operating rate of recycled copper rods was 40.20%, with a decrease of 2.93 percentage points on a weekly basis. From a terminal perspective, the new field of wind and solar energy is improving, real estate completion and peak season air conditioning demand are resilient, while other traditional demand margins are weakening.

In summary, there are not many short-term smelter shipments and imported goods resources in China, with tight supply and demand balance, low inventory, and downstream bargain hunting. It is expected that copper prices will continue to maintain an overall volatile trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic Chlorinated paraffins 52 market was 5250 yuan/ton on July 28, and the average price of domestic Chlorinated paraffins 52 market was 5250 yuan/ton on August 3. The price of Chlorinated paraffins was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of Chlorinated paraffins is stable this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid chlorine has increased, while the price of raw material liquid wax has decreased, and cost support is still acceptable. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, manufacturers have a stable price mentality, and market trading is light. As of August 3, the ex factory quotation of Chlorinated paraffins 52 in Anhui was about 5600 yuan/ton, and that of Chlorinated paraffins 52 in Shandong was about 4800-5150 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, this week’s trend of liquid wax was initially upward and then downward, with prices showing a downward trend. Liquid wax fluctuates with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine rose this week and remained stable, with good market transactions and stable shipments from manufacturers.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Chlorinated paraffins analysts from the business agency believe that the price of raw materials has stabilized and declined recently, and the cost side support has weakened. Downstream demand is limited, with primary demand for procurement and fewer new orders in the market. It is expected that the price of Chlorinated paraffins will operate stably in the short term, and it is suggested to pay attention to the changes of raw materials and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of ammonium sulfate in China was 870 yuan/ton on July 24th, and 1050 yuan/ton on July 28th. This week, the market price of ammonium sulfate increased by 20.69%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price has significantly increased this week. At present, the inventory of ammonium sulfate market is low, and manufacturers and distributors are reluctant to sell, operating at high prices. The significant increase in urea prices this week has boosted the nitrogen fertilizer market and boosted the ammonium sulfate market. The bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate has significantly increased, and domestic grade ammonium sulfate has rapidly followed suit. The international market for ammonium sulfate is also improving, with increased buying. Downstream procurement is active, with stable support on the demand side. As of July 28th, the mainstream market quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 1100 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 1160-1170 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart of ammonium sulfate, it can be seen that the price of ammonium sulfate has increased significantly in recent days, with the largest increase being 20.69% on July 24th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that due to the recent surge in urea, the ammonium sulfate market has continued to rise, and supported by export orders, ammonium sulfate is selling well. Currently, under the influence of positive factors, it is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will continue to rise strongly in the short term.