The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 9th, the DBP price was 8437.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.40% compared to the price of 8826.25 yuan/ton on June 2nd. The prices of raw materials have fluctuated and fallen, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, and the price of plasticizer DBP has fluctuated and fallen.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol on June 9th was 8720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.96% compared to 9080 yuan/ton on June 2nd. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, with weak market trading performance. The cost of plasticizer products decreased, and the price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and fell.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 9th, the price of n-butanol was 6616.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.67% compared to the price of n-butanol on June 2nd, which was 7166.67 yuan/ton. This week, the price of n-butanol has significantly decreased, with sufficient supply and weak demand for n-butanol. The overall pressure on the cost of plasticizers has increased, and the price of plasticizer DBP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 9th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 7687.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.44% compared to the price of 7800 yuan/ton on June 2nd. The operation of phthalic anhydride enterprises is stable, with sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride. Downstream demand for on-demand procurement is poor. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, resulting in a decrease in raw material costs and a significant pressure on plasticizer costs.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the prices of isooctanol and n-butanol have significantly decreased this week, and the cost of plasticizer DBP products has decreased. Overall, the supply of isooctanol and n-butanol is sufficient, the cost of plasticizer raw materials has decreased, and the demand for plasticizers is weak. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DBP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the domestic neopentyl glycol market price was adjusted at a low level this week. The average price of the mainstream market of neopentyl glycol in China this week was 10433.33 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 38.02% year-on-year. On June 5th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 36.38, a decrease of 1.35 points from yesterday, a decrease of 65.54% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 20.78% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The price of neopentyl glycol in the mainstream market was temporarily stable this week.

From the perspective of neopentyl glycol upstream raw material market, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 7700.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7433.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 3.46%. Weekend prices fell by 53.15% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of neopentyl glycol was negatively affected.

3、 Future prospects

In mid to late June, the trend of the new pentanediol market may fluctuate slightly and decline mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market slightly declined, and cost support weakened. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of June 5, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1010 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to June 1, 2023; Compared to May 1, 2023 (reference price of phosphate rock is 1090 yuan/ton), the price has been reduced by 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.42%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in early June (6.1-6.5), the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole showed stable and consolidation operation. At the beginning of the month, the overall downstream demand for domestic phosphorus ore remained relatively stable, with average demand support. The overall supply side was slightly tight, and the supply side provided some support. The trading atmosphere in the phosphorus ore field was light, and the mentality of the phosphorus ore industry was average. The overall market remained stable and excessively operated. As of June 6th, the domestic 30% grade phosphorus ore market price was referenced around 950-1100 yuan/ton. There are also differences between the specific price and factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to lump ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated through actual orders.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market Trend of Phosphate Rock

At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field has generally boosted, but the recent rebound in downstream product prices of phosphate ore is expected to give a certain positive boost to the phosphate ore market. The phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly adjust and operate in multiple intervals, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic MTBE market has declined. From May 29th to June 2nd, the price of MTBE dropped from 7487 yuan/ton to 7350 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.84% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 1.84%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.98%.

After the price rose to a certain high level in the early stage, downstream resistance led to a gradual slowdown in manufacturers’ shipments, with the main focus on profit and volume. At the same time, Shandong Minghao, Dongying Shenchi, and Shandong Chengtai have successively started construction, and the tight spot supply situation is gradually easing. However, the positive demand side has limited boost, coupled with a significant decline in international crude oil, causing the MTBE market to decline in a volatile manner.

Cost and crude oil: the market is worried about whether the US Congress will pass the US debt ceiling agreement, overlapping the internal differences of oil producing countries OEPC+, and the oil market is under pressure. On June 2nd, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil for Business Society was 72.60 US dollars per barrel, while the benchmark price of WTI crude oil was 68.09 US dollars per barrel. The cost side is bearish for the domestic oil industry chain, while the MTBE cost side is bearish.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, the increase in summer demand has some support for oil prices, but the weakness of crude oil and the expectation of a new round of retail price limits have suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, making it difficult to close large orders. The demand side of MTBE is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, early maintenance companies are gradually starting work, and MTBE supply is gradually taking control, resulting in a bearish impact on the supply side.

As of the close on June 1st, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $7.4 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $913.39- $915.39 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $5.75 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $982.49-982.99 per ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States has decreased by $2.7/ton compared to the previous trading day as of June 1, while the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $7.4/ton compared to the previous trading day. FOB Singapore has closed at $913.39-915.39/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $5.75 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $982.49-982.99 per ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by 2.7 US dollars per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at 939.21-939.57 US dollars per ton (264.57-264.67 US cents per gallon).

In the future market forecast, the supply volume will increase and the demand side will perform weakly. MTBE analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic MTBE market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene showed a trend of first falling and then rising this month. On May 1st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7830 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, the price was 7470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.6% compared to the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of crude oil, in the first half of the month, with the deepening of macro risk aversion and cautious trading atmosphere in the energy market, Gulf News reported on May 5th that Saudi Arabia has lowered crude oil futures prices in the Asian market; The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company of the United Arab Emirates announced that it will reduce crude oil shipments by 5% from May to seek a balance between supply and demand of crude oil; The unexpected increase in crude oil inventories in the United States has deepened market concerns about economic recession, and the oil market has developed in a volatile manner.

In mid May, the US crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased. The EIA monthly report predicts that US crude oil production will increase by about 5% in 2023, and fuel demand will increase by 1%. It is expected that US crude oil production will increase by 5.1% to 12.53 million barrels per day in 2023, and the oil production of major shale oil producing areas in the US will reach a historic high in June; The United States intends to purchase 3 million barrels of sour crude oil to supplement its strategic oil reserves that are about to run out.

In the second half of the month, the United States initially reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, avoiding the risk of default, but there are still expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve; Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the current goal of Russia and OPEC+is to ensure a balance between supply and demand of crude oil to maintain market stability.

The crude oil price fluctuated and fluctuated in May. On May 31st, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil in the trading company was 72.67 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -5.35% compared to the beginning of this month (76.78 US dollars per barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 77.10 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -4.02% compared to the beginning of this month (80.33 US dollars per barrel).

Downstream, domestic PX prices have shown a downward trend this month. On May 1st, the benchmark price of PX was 9000 yuan/ton. On May 31st, the price dropped to 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.78%. In May, PX supply slightly increased, and the domestic PX operating rate was over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some PX devices, the domestic PX price trend declined due to the increase in supply.

In terms of OX, the overall price of OX has shown a stepwise downward trend this month. On May 1st, the price was 8800 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, the price was 8100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month, with a decrease of 7.95%. The downstream phthalic anhydride market of OX is stabilizing, while the downstream plasticizer market is declining. Demand is mainly in demand, and the overall upward momentum of the adjacent benzene market is weakening. There is still downward pressure, and the adjacent benzene market will temporarily stabilize in the future.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices have fallen and risen this month. On May 1st, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8648.6 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, it was 8428.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220.4 yuan/ton or 2.55% compared to the beginning of the month. The domestic refined oil market still lacks demand support, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the sales pressure of main units at the end of the month is high, resulting in a downward pressure on domestic gasoline prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In terms of crude oil, the OPEC+alliance will hold a meeting in Vienna on June 4th to decide on production policies; As the weather warms up, gasoline demand is improving, but downstream demand for fine chemicals is weak, providing limited price support, with gasoline primarily in demand; The current US economy is better than expected and the risk of debt default has decreased, leading to an increase in short-term market risk appetite. Affected by fundamentals, the mixed xylene market is operating weakly, with mixed xylene operators mainly consolidating in the short term. Pay attention to the market trends of crude oil and gasoline, as well as the impact of mixed xylene and downstream equipment dynamics, port inventory, and external markets on the price of mixed xylene.