1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market was lowered this week. Last Thursday, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 24000 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 20000 yuan/ton. During the week, the price was significantly reduced by 16.67%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market fell this week. At present, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is poor, and the demand on the market continues to be weak. The inventory on site is under pressure, and some enterprises are stopping for maintenance to alleviate the pressure. The manufacturer will not provide a quotation to the public for the time being, and will discuss the actual order in detail. Downstream procurement is more cautious, with lower prices and a downward focus on the transaction price of new orders. As of now, the mainstream quotation is around 20000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, as of May 11, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1066 yuan/ton; Compared to May 4, 2023 (reference price of phosphate rock is 1090 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 2.2%. The overall situation of the domestic phosphorus ore market is weak and moving downwards. The downstream yellow phosphorus industry chain and terminal demand are average, and the overall downstream construction is relatively low. The demand for raw materials has weakened, and the support for phosphorus ore is loose. There is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and the pace of shipment in some regions has slowed down. According to the phosphorus ore data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market is mainly weak and the operation is mainly adjusted in a narrow range, The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in news on the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of coke in the market will be lowered this week. Last Thursday, the average price of coke was 2086 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 1896 yuan/ton. During the week, the price was significantly reduced by 9.11%. Some regions have started the seventh round of lifting and lowering, with this round of lifting and lowering by 100 yuan/ton. Coking enterprises have recently experienced a slight decline in construction, but overall they are still relatively high. The overall inventory in the factory is high, and downstream procurement is still in urgent need. Currently, the coke market is operating in a weak trend.

As for phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid dropped sharply this week. Last Thursday, the average price of phosphoric acid was 6920 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 6550 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 5.35%. At present, the demand for phosphoric acid in the market is sluggish and the market is weak. The trend of raw phosphorus ore and yellow phosphorus is poor, and the phosphoric acid market is operating weakly. Downstream demand is weak, and the mentality of buying up instead of buying down has increased.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that currently, upstream phosphate rock prices are weak and downward, and the market for coke prices is weak, resulting in weak cost support. The downstream phosphoric acid market has significantly decreased, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is obvious. Overall, the supply and demand of the yellow phosphorus market are weak, and the atmosphere is relatively empty. It is expected that yellow phosphorus will continue to be weak in the short term, and pay attention to changes in the news.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose sharply this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong region increased from 9100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10071.43 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 10.68%. Weekend prices fell by 22.92% year-on-year. On May 7th, the isooctanol commodity index was 74.05, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 46.15% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 110.67% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support and increased downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the market prices of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have increased this week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7052.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6962.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.28%. Weekend prices fell by 20.89% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isooctanol was negatively affected.

From the downstream market situation of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP has significantly increased this week. The price of DOP increased from 9709.17 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 910750.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 10.72%. Weekend prices fell by 11.16% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have significantly increased, and downstream customers are actively increasing their purchases of isooctanol.

Future prospects

In mid to early May, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream DOP market has significantly increased, leading to an increase in downstream demand. Some manufacturers have shut down for maintenance, resulting in a tight supply of isooctanol. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Aluminum fluoride prices continue to rise after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of aluminum fluoride continues to decline, while the price of aluminum fluoride has stopped falling and risen after the holiday. As of May 6th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 9775 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.62% compared to the price of 9525 yuan/ton on May 1st. The cost has increased, and the price of aluminum fluoride has fluctuated and increased after the holiday.

Rising prices of raw materials

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, since mid March, the prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have fluctuated and increased. As of May 6th, the price of fluorite was 3125 yuan/ton, a continuous increase of 5.93% compared to the price of 2950 yuan/ton on March 10th; As of May 6th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 10128.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.26% compared to March 10th’s price of 9714.29 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 2.21% compared to April 20th’s price of 10357.14 yuan/ton. Fluorite and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are temporarily stable in operation, with stable supply. The price of raw material fluorite continues to rise, while hydrofluoric acid prices first rise and then fall. The cost of aluminum fluoride increases, and the rise in aluminum fluoride provides significant support.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at Business Society believe that after mid March, the price of raw material fluorite continued to rise, while the price of hydrofluoric acid first rose and then fell, resulting in an increase in the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials. In the future, the cost of aluminum fluoride continues to rise, and demand remains weak. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and rise in the future.

Domestic cobalt prices fluctuated and fell in April

According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of April 30th, cobalt prices were 264200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.12% compared to April 1st, when cobalt prices were 290700 yuan/ton. International cobalt prices have plummeted, with cobalt prices fluctuating and falling in April.

International cobalt prices plummet

From the trend chart of MB cobalt prices, it can be seen that in April, MB cobalt prices significantly decreased, while international cobalt prices fell, which was bearish for the domestic cobalt market and caused fluctuations in domestic cobalt prices.

Rising sales of new energy vehicles

According to data released by the Passenger Transport Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 617000 units in March 2023, a year-on-year increase of 35.2% and a month on month increase of 24.5%; From January to March, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.501 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%. In March, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 543000 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.9% and a month on month increase of 23.6%; From January to March, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.313 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%. In April, new energy vehicle manufacturers promoted and reduced prices, resulting in an increase in sales of new energy vehicles. However, the overall growth rate of new energy vehicle sales slowed down, and the demand growth in the cobalt market was less than expected.

Downstream demand has increased

As of April 2, 2023, the sales report data for the 13th week of the smartphone market shows that the total sales for that week were about 4.538 million units. Compared to 2022, not only did it not achieve a recovery, but it fell by about 2%. The 13th week of 2022 was one of the most strict lockdowns in China last year, but even so, the smartphone market this year is still not as strong as last year, and the sluggish consumption in the smartphone market is evident. The demand for e-cigarettes and Apple batteries has increased, driving the construction of lithium cobalt oxide enterprises to increase, and battery factories have also shown a decrease in inventory. In addition, various mobile phone factories are looking forward to the “618″ shopping festival promotion, hoping that consumers can replace smartphones or increase phone shipments, while also driving the cobalt market demand to a certain extent. Cobalt market demand has recovered, but overall cobalt market demand growth is less than expected. Despite promotional incentives in the future, mobile phone consumption is weak and difficult to improve. Cobalt market demand is less than expected, and there is still pressure on cobalt prices to decline in the future.

Increase in cobalt raw material imports

According to customs statistics, in March 2023, there were 506 tons of unwrought cobalt imported, an increase of 134% month on month and 29% year on year. From January to March 2023, China’s total imports of unwrought cobalt amounted to 119600 tons of metal tons, an increase of 12% year-on-year. The import of cobalt raw materials has increased, the supply of cobalt in the market has increased, and the pressure on cobalt prices to decline has increased.

Indonesia may ban cobalt ore exports

On April 15th, the Minister of Energy and Mines of Indonesia, Arifin Tasrif, said in an interview that Indonesia will implement a plan to ban the export of bauxite, cobalt, and tin in June. Currently, this news has not had an impact on spot cobalt prices, and domestic and foreign production capacity is gradually releasing, import quantities are also increasing. The phenomenon of weak downstream demand and only increasing inventory has caused market panic.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the international cobalt price fluctuated and fell in April, leaving the domestic cobalt market bearish. In terms of supply and demand, the import of cobalt raw materials has increased, and the cobalt market has sufficient supply. On the demand side, although the sales of new energy electric vehicles have increased significantly and the demand for lithium cobalt batteries has recovered, which has a certain supporting effect on the cobalt market, the overall weak market of the mobile phone market is difficult to improve, and the pressure of cobalt price decline still exists. In the future, the supply and demand in the cobalt market are weak, and the cobalt market is bearish. International cobalt prices have plummeted, and it is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate slightly in the future. At the same time, the cobalt market also has positive support. If Indonesia implements a ban on cobalt exports, domestic cobalt market supply may be insufficient, and the support for cobalt price increases remains. Cobalt prices may stop falling and rebound in late May.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of the domestic caprolactam market was 12100 yuan/ton on April 1, and 12683 yuan/ton on April 28. The price of the domestic caprolactam market rose 4.82% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic caprolactam market price rose first and then fell this month. In the first ten days of April, the price of caprolactam market rose with the increase of raw material pure benzene price, which strengthened the cost support. The downstream PA6 market is improving, and procurement demand is increasing. The market supply of caprolactam is reduced due to the maintenance of some enterprises. In late April, the price of raw material pure benzene decreased, and cost support weakened. The supply of caprolactam in the spot market gradually recovered, and the downstream demand was general. Caprolactam trend began to be weak. As of April 28, the settlement price of Sinopec caprolactam in April was 13350 yuan/ton, and the quality liquid products were accepted and collected within 6 months.

The market price of raw material pure benzene rose first and then fell this month. Crude oil fell broadly, with a bearish cost side. The Asian American arbitrage window has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is at a high level, resulting in a high import volume of pure benzene in April. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is sufficient. Downstream profitability is poor, styrene continues to decline, and market interest in purchasing pure benzene is average, dragging down pure benzene on the demand side. On April 28th, the average price of pure benzene was 7425 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.73% this month. This month, Sinopec’s pure benzene price increased by a total of 150 yuan/ton to 7450 yuan/ton.

After the downstream domestic PA6 market rose this month, it was sorted and put into operation. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable, and the supply remains sufficient. In terms of demand, it is acceptable, but the stock is biased towards low-priced sources. As of April 28th, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 13975 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.08% compared to the beginning of the month.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The caprolactam analysts of the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered recently, and the cost support is insufficient. Coupled with an increase in market supply, downstream market demand is underperforming. It is expected that caprolactam prices will weaken and decline in the short term.