This week (11.7-11), the domestic polysilicon market was stable, the price remained at the level of last week, and the weekly rise and fall was only 0. According to the monitoring of the business community, at the weekend, the single-crystal dense mainstream range with the model of primary solar energy reached RMB 298-30900/ton. The plant starts normally, the supply is stable, and the demand continues to provide support.

On the supply side, the operating rate of silicon material enterprises’ devices is normal. As some devices are about to be put into production, the expected supply pressure increases. This week, manufacturers’ orders continue to follow up, but downstream silicon chips fall, demand weakens, and the bargaining power of large silicon material manufacturers weakens. In addition, transportation in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is blocked, local supply pressure increases, and delivery is delayed, but the overall supply is not affected. On the whole, the supply is still improved compared with the previous month, and the significant relief of the pressure of tight supply is the main reason for stopping the growth of silicon materials.

From the perspective of downstream silicon chips, since some silicon chip leaders lowered the quotation of some models of silicon chips at the beginning of this month, the big factories have not adjusted the price this week. The mainstream transaction price of M10 was stable at 7.37 yuan/piece, while that of G12 was stable at 9.71 yuan/piece. However, downstream demand has slowed down, and silicon chip manufacturers are showing signs of accumulating stock, which does not rule out the possibility of continuing to reduce prices.

In terms of terminals, the price of battery chips remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction price of single crystal M6 battery chip was stable, at about 1.29 yuan/W, that of M10 battery chip was about 1.34 yuan/W, and that of G12 battery chip was stable, at about 1.31 yuan/W. Enterprise cost pressure is still high, the willingness to start work is not strong, and the shipment of terminal components is stable.

Future market forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from the business community believe that the supply and demand of silicon materials are stable at present, but in the later period, as some devices are facing production, the supply pressure will increase, and the supply pattern will be improved. In addition, domestic regulation and control will be strengthened, and the market will be hindered from rising. The supplier has no information release in the short term. The demand side is still rigid and strong, and it is estimated that the silicon material market may still maintain a high consolidation.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 14, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China was around 1056 yuan/ton, which was 1 yuan/ton higher than that on November 7 (1055 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring map of the business community that the recent domestic phosphorus ore market is generally stable, moderate and slightly rising. The overall supply of domestic medium and high-end grade phosphate ore is mainly tight, and the downstream demand side is relatively stable. The new transaction prices of some phosphate mining enterprises in Sichuan increased slightly by about 10 yuan/ton. The phosphate ore market in Guizhou, Hubei and Guangxi remained stable and consolidated. As of November 14, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors, and the details need to be negotiated.

Forecast and analysis of phosphate rock future market trend

Near the end of the year, some domestic mining enterprises and mines have stopped production, and the tight supply of domestic phosphate rock can hardly be greatly improved in the short term. According to the phosphate ore data engineer of the business community, the overall domestic phosphate ore market is expected to operate mainly in a stable and small way in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 3766.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3750.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decline of 0.44%. The arrival price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 3660-3880 yuan/ton. On November 13, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 98.68, unchanged from yesterday, 31.82% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21), and 2.04% higher than the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly this week: the arrival price of 60% potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake was 3660-3880 yuan/ton, and the price was temporarily stable. Xiangyang Youdeshi’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3800 yuan/ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3800 yuan/ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3650 yuan/ton this weekend, down 50 yuan/ton compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is about 3500-3600 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong Granules at the port is about 3500-3600 yuan/ton. 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade is about 3400 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate fell slightly this week, from 9237.50 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9162.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 0.81%, up 13.82% year-on-year. The factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this week, from 6075.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5875.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 3.29%, 0.86% year-on-year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Future market forecast

The overall trend of potassium chloride market in the middle and late November may be dominated by narrow shocks. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger was adjusted at a low level. The downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, and the downstream demand was weakened, mainly for the purchase of steel. International potash fertilizer prices fell slightly. Potassium chloride analysts from the business community believe that the domestic potassium chloride import price may fall slightly in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8374 yuan/ton on November 7, and the average price was 8370 yuan/ton on November 11, with a decline of 0.05% during the period, 4.89% higher than that on September 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9633 yuan/ton on November 7, and the average price was 9633 yuan/ton on November 11. During this period, the price was stable, up 1.23% from September 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8366 yuan/ton on November 7 and 8366 yuan/ton on November 10. During this period, the price was stable, down 1.57% from September 1.

The overall quotation of domestic polyethylene spot market was stable this week, among which LLDPE was stable after the rise and fall of LLDPE were mutually reflected at the beginning of the week, and LDPE and HDPE were mainly stable. International crude oil futures prices fell on the 7th, which was bad for the market. On August 8, the spot price of domestic polyethylene was slightly adjusted, and petrochemical enterprises generally offered firm prices. In terms of supply, the total output of polyethylene this week increased compared with last week. The lower reaches were resistant to the high price. The enthusiasm for entering the market turned weak, the transaction slowed down, and the sample inventory of polyethylene manufacturers rose slightly. In terms of demand, data shows that the overall operating rate of the downstream industry has declined on a month on month basis, including the operating rate of agricultural film, packaging film and pipe materials, and the demand for agricultural film has gradually weakened. The peak season is nearing the end, and the consumer demand for the Double 11 E-commerce Festival has only been boosted.

In terms of current raw materials, on November 10, international crude oil futures prices rose, bringing some support to the cost side. On the demand side, the peak season of agricultural film gradually ended, bringing certain negative effects. The lower reaches mostly maintain replenishment on demand, with low enthusiasm. The PE spot market is expected to be dominated by narrow shocks.

This week, the domestic liquefied gas market was weak and fell, while the Shandong civil gas market was stable first and then fell. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of liquefied gas in the civil Shandong market was 5218 yuan/ton on October 31, and 5108 yuan/ton on November 4, with a decline of 2.11% in the week and 7.8% compared with the same period last year.

As of November 4, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, mainstream quotation

In North China, 5000-5150 yuan/ton

East China, 5300-5550 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 5000-5200 yuan/ton

Shandong,. 5100-5300 yuan/ton

Shandong civil gas market fell mainly this week, with a poor trend. In terms of cost, international crude oil rose slightly, with limited cost support. The supplier has no new production, and the supply is relatively stable. In terms of demand, due to the impact of domestic public health and security incidents, the regional transportation is not smooth, resulting in difficult demand.

LPG futures market rose first and then fell this week, with limited support for the spot market. On November 4, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2212 was 5280, the highest price was 5363, the lowest price was 5200, the closing price was 5323, the previous settlement price was 5336, the settlement price was 5266, down 13, the trading volume was 144686, the position was 72071, and the daily position increase was -2767. (Quotation unit: yuan/ton)

At present, international crude oil is surging, which brings certain benefits to the market. With the cold weather in the future, the demand is gradually increasing, and the transportation situation has improved. It is expected that the Shandong civil gas market will stop falling and rebound in the short term.

The lead market (10.28-11.04) continued to rise slightly this week. The average price of the domestic market was 15045 yuan/ton last weekend and 15145 yuan/ton this weekend, up 0.66%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. Since the market entered September, the expectation of downstream battery enterprises in peak season has increased, driving the price of primary lead to rise.

Lead futures market this week

Variety., closing price., compared with the same period of last week., inventory., compared with the same period of last week,

Shanghai Lead, 15230 yuan/ton,+180 yuan/ton, 43942 tons, – 9751

London lead., 1985.5 USD/ton., – 6.5 USD/ton., 27,625 tons., – 625

The futures market fluctuated widely this week. The price fluctuated widely a few days ago, and strengthened near the weekend. LME lead inventory continued to fall, Shanghai lead inventory fell significantly, and the spot market maintained a small increase.

From the basic point of view, as the downstream battery peak season is expected to gradually increase after September, the lead ingot is better supported. In terms of supply, the import situation at the mine end was not as good as the market expectation, the overall supply was still tight, and the overall operating rate of domestic production enterprises increased slightly. The production of renewable lead enterprises is good in the near future, and the resumption of production is active, and the overall supply of lead is slightly improved. The production of downstream battery enterprises has been good since the peak season, and the overall demand for lead ingots is well supported. In general, the supply and demand of lead are increasing on the basic level, the market peak season is expected to be strong, and the trading is good. As we entered November, the battery industry began to enter the end of the peak season. Although the recent commencement of battery enterprises did not decline, the data from terminal consumption showed that the market had some expectations of decline. It is expected that the lead price in the future will continue to fluctuate in a wide range. After losing the downstream support, the price will mainly follow the macro factors.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are seven kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector that have risen month on month in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 44th week of 2022 (10.31-11.4), with nickel (4.99%), zinc (2.49%) and silver (2.03%) in the top three. There were 14 kinds of goods that declined month on month, and 1 kind of goods that declined more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of monitored goods in this sector; The top three products of the decline were praseodymium oxide (-5.52%), praseodymium metal (-3.17%) and neodymium oxide (-2.68%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.58%.

Aluminum fluoride price rises this week

According to the data of the business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride rose continuously this week. As of November 7, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 11525 yuan/ton, up 3.13% from 11175 yuan/ton on October 30. The price of aluminum fluoride raw materials has risen continuously, the cost of aluminum fluoride has soared, and the price of aluminum fluoride has risen.

Price rise of raw materials

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of fluorite rose sharply this week. As of November 7, the price of fluorite was 3200 yuan/ton, up 8.25% from 2956.25 yuan/ton on October 30; The price of hydrofluoric acid rose sharply this week. As of November 7, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11128.57 yuan/ton, up 6.57% from 10442.86 yuan/ton on October 30. This week, the prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid, the raw materials of aluminum fluoride, soared, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, and the impetus for aluminum fluoride to rise increased.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts from the aluminum fluoride industry of the business community believe that the prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid, the raw materials of aluminum fluoride, have risen sharply, the cost of aluminum fluoride has risen, the profit of aluminum fluoride has declined, and the upward momentum of aluminum fluoride has increased. In the future, the cost will rise, and the aluminum fluoride price is expected to rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the NMP market fell sharply this week. The average price of electronic NMP at the beginning of the week was 28000 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 26500 yuan/ton, down 5.36%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of Friday, the mainstream quotation in the domestic electronic NMP market was 25000-26000 yuan/ton. This week, raw materials BDO and monomethylamine both fell to varying degrees, and cost support was negative. At the same time, the downstream has obvious resistance to high price goods, and the willingness to sell goods is not strong. In order to stabilize the shipment, the factory has lowered the quotation.

As of October 28, the mainstream prices of NMP apron in different regions in China are as follows:

Region., October 27

In East China, 24000-25000 yuan/ton

Central China, 25000-26500 yuan/ton

Southwest China, 25500-26500 yuan/ton

The domestic BDO market fluctuated downward. Recently, the demand side has followed up with a light atmosphere. Recently, the market inquiry atmosphere has continued to be light. The demand side followed up with few actual orders and negotiated prices, the delivery mentality of the carrier, and the trading focus was weak.

3、 Future market forecast

NMP analysts from the business agency believe that under the dual impact of the falling raw material cost and bad demand, it is expected that the short-term NMP market is weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the price of returned toluene after the festival rose to 7910 yuan/ton and began to fall continuously. The price of toluene was 7630 yuan/ton on October 1 and 7590 yuan/ton on October 28, down 0.52% from the beginning of the month; It was 12.11% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

During the National Day, due to the wide rise of crude oil, the relevant bulk commodity markets were boosted, and toluene followed suit. However, due to the occasional outbreaks in some areas, domestic gasoline demand has declined, and the gasoline price market is weak. In addition, the demand for downstream chemical products such as PX continues to be weak, and the demand side shrinks. In addition, the supply side began to increase in the middle of September. In October, the contradiction between supply and demand in the toluene market was highlighted, and the price fell under pressure after a short rise.

In terms of the external market, the overall trend of toluene in Asia in the external market was up and down this month. On October 28, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 946 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton month on month, or 0.64%.

In terms of crude oil, due to the OPEC+meeting’s decision to significantly reduce production from November, crude oil rose broadly during the National Day holiday. However, in the context of multi country interest rate hikes, economic data is weak, and oil prices continue to play a game around demand concerns and supply shortages. As of October 28, Brent rose by 7.81 dollars/barrel, or 8.88%; WTI rose by 8.41 dollars/barrel, or 10.58%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose broadly this month to fall back in the last ten days. At the beginning of the month, the price of domestic goods was 20075 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 23625 yuan/ton, up 17.68% from the beginning of the month and 52.42% from the same period last year.

In terms of PX market, domestic PX prices stabilized after rising this month. The price at the beginning of the month was 9000 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 9300 yuan/ton, 3.33% higher than the beginning of the month, and 27.4% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong Province fell continuously this month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8693 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 8329 yuan/ton, down 4.19% from the beginning of the month and 3.88% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the market is worried about the economic and demand prospects under the background of multi country interest rate increases; However, OPEC+plans to reduce production, and the geopolitical situation still worries about the tension of energy supply. It is expected that the international oil price will continue to play a long short game with a volatile trend. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Toluene is about to enter the traditional off-season of demand, and the pressure of supply and demand may increase, which will still restrict the price of toluene. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics, import and export, downstream demand, etc. on the price of toluene.

Shandong styrene market fell on November 2. Shandong’s styrene production price was 8291.67 yuan/ton, down 13.81% year on year. The US dollar market of styrene in Asia was light, the pure benzene market fell, the cost support was poor, the downstream procurement was on demand, the transaction was cautious, and the styrene market fell. The spot stock of styrene is abundant, and the short-term styrene market is expected to fall mainly.