Aluminum prices fell 2.25% on the day and rose 8.22% in the month

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on September 14 was 22900 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.25% compared with the average market price of 23426.67 yuan / ton on September 13; Compared with the average market price of 21160 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (9.1), an increase of 8.22%.

Taking the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) as the benchmark price, it has increased by 45.61%.

Market summary

On Monday, the spot aluminum price soared and the downstream undertaking was weak. Today, the spot price is under pressure to adjust the shipment. At present, it has dropped to the price level below 23000 yuan / ton, which is still at a relatively high level in history. On the whole, the fundamentals have not changed, the supply is limited, the inventory is low, and the market currency source is tight; On the demand side, the main consumption is real estate and transportation industry, accounting for 50-55%. At present, the demand for aluminum in real estate is at the peak of completion. In addition, the output of new energy vehicles is at a record high, and the overall demand for aluminum has increased; On the cost side, the price of upstream raw material alumina increased and the preferential electricity price policy was cancelled, and the production cost per ton of aluminum was strongly supported; It is expected to maintain the trend of high-level and volatile operation in the near future. In the later stage, it will focus on the rapid rise of aluminum price in the near future, the downstream undertaking strength and the supervision and price stabilization strength of relevant departments.

Commodity index: on September 12, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 90.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.31% from the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (2019-05-08), and up 9.46% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the data of business society, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China from September 6 to 12 was 14850 yuan / ton, and the weekly market remained stable.

Upstream raw materials:

Acrylic acid is one of the raw materials used in the production of anionic and non-ionic polyacrylamide. According to the data monitoring of business agency (100ppi. Com), the mainstream quotation of acrylic acid in the market on the 6th (Monday) was 14433.33 yuan / ton and 14633.33 yuan / ton on the 12th (Sunday), with a weekly increase of 1.39%.

The price of acrylonitrile, another main raw material of polyacrylamide, has been stable recently, and the weekly main quotation continues to be about 14900 yuan / ton, which has a stable impact on polyacrylamide this week.

LNG is used in the production process. Last week, the domestic mainstream price of LNG continued to decline. On September 6, the average price of domestic LNG was 5926.67 yuan / ton, and on September 12, the mainstream price was 5783.33 yuan / ton, with a weekly adjustment range of – 2.42%. The overall demand is weakened, the terminal gas is insufficient, and the liquid plant reduces the price and discharges the warehouse for good, but the high price transaction is not smooth, and there are still downward expectations. However, the cost is high and the supporting force is still, so the downward range is not large. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will operate weakly and stably in the short term.

Downstream demand: at present, the epidemic situation in the water treatment industry and the price of raw materials have changed slightly, and the demand adjustment range is not large. The downstream purchase price is normal, and the demand tends to be stable.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, the “golden nine silver ten” has not substantially promoted the market at present, and it is more likely that the future market will be dominated by stability.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of September 10, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was 9300 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on September 6, 2021 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 8600 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1000 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.04%. Compared with September 1 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 8900 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 400 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.49%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that the overall increase of domestic dimethyl carbonate market this week is obvious, and the overall increase in the week has exceeded 8%. The sharp rise of dimethyl carbonate market is supported by both supply and demand. On the supply side, the dimethyl carbonate market fell last week, and the low-end price transaction improved. This week, the overall inventory of dimethyl carbonate was low and the supply side was tight. In terms of demand, this week, electrolyte and solvent factories took goods intensively, the demand for dimethyl carbonate increased, the inventory continued to decrease, the quotation of dimethyl carbonate factories continued to rise, and the sentiment of supporting the price and reluctant to sell was high. As of September 10 at the weekend, the ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was reference 9000-9500 yuan / ton, which was 500-1000 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of this week, The biggest increase in a factory in Shandong was 1200 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, at present, the average ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate is 9300 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 8% this week.

In terms of raw material propylene oxide, the propylene oxide Market in Shandong showed a steady upward trend this week. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of September 10, the average production price of propylene oxide in Shandong was 16466 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of this week, the average price increased by 333 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.07% during the week, and 433 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.70% compared with the beginning of this month

In terms of upstream dimethyl ether, in the second week of September, due to the favorable cost of methanol, the dimethyl ether market ushered in a sharp rise. After experiencing a tepid market for more than a month, the dimethyl ether market finally ushered in a sharp rise in the second week of September. The dimethyl ether Market in Henan increased by nearly 4% during the week, and the quotations of most manufacturers in Henan, the main production area, rose to above 3700 yuan / ton. There were many positive factors in the market this week, which supported the continuous rise of dimethyl ether prices. First, the methanol market rose sharply, and the rise of raw material market brought strong support to dimethyl ether. Followed by the liquefied gas market, civil gas continued to rise during the week, and the price difference between gas and ether gradually opened, which was good for the market mentality. The downstream market entry is more positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the mentality is strong, and the price is pushed up one after another. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3562.50 yuan / ton on September 1 and 3681.25 yuan / ton on September 9, with an increase of 3.92% during the week and 4.80% compared with August 1.

Future trend analysis

This week, the market of dimethyl carbonate has returned to a high level. After the downstream centralized collection of goods, the demand at high prices may gradually return to stability. In addition, it is heard that dimethyl carbonate from large factories in Shandong will be shipped one after another next week. With the increase of on-site supply, the high road of dimethyl carbonate may be shaken. Dimethyl carbonate analysts of business society believe that the domestic price of dimethyl carbonate may be reduced by a narrow margin in the short term, Specifically, we should pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of September 9, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 15666 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on September 5 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 14900 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 766 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.89%.

Last week, the market of n-butanol in Shandong rose, and the high-end price exceeded 16000 yuan / ton.

This week, on the 6th and 7th of the week, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong went down, the high-end price decreased greatly, and the difference between high and low prices narrowed. The ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong fell to around 15300-15600 yuan / ton. There were few new orders in the n-butanol spot market, mainly low-end, and more contracts were executed downstream. The overall trading atmosphere in the market was general, and the mentality of the operators was weak, 8. On the 9th, the market trend of n-butanol continued to decline, with a downward range of 100-500 yuan / ton. As of the 9th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was reference 14700-15000 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the week, it was reduced by 500-700 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.89% during the week.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the price of propylene oxide in domestic Shandong continued to rise steadily this week. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of September 9, the reference price of propylene oxide in domestic Shandong was 16400 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on September 6 (the reference price of propylene oxide was 16133 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 267 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.65% during the week.

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is weak, and the high price of n-butanol decreased significantly this week. At present, the difference between high and low prices in the market is small, there are many downstream companies that need replenishment, and the operating rate is still low. The operators are in a strong wait-and-see mood. According to the n-butanol analysts of business society, the overall weak consolidation operation of the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is expected to be dominated in the short term.

From August 30 to September 3, 2021, the market price of crude benzene in Japan decreased slightly, at 6231 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 6331 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.6%.

On September 2, 2021, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene by 100 yuan / ton. At present, it is 7650 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical is 7600 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the fundamentals are good this week, with crude oil rising, pure benzene prices rising, and some downstream units restarted, which has a certain demand for pure benzene. A series of factors such as the recovery of market trading at the end of the month supported the recovery of pure benzene price. Affected by the increase of cost pressure, some enterprises shut down or reduced the operating rate, and the supply decreased slightly compared with the previous period, which also supported the price. On the whole, the slightly tight supply led to the positive recovery of the market.

This week’s crude benzene market was dominated by a slight correction. The bidding price in Shandong this week was 6330 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton from last week. In terms of supply, affected by the high raw coal price and tight supply this week, the expectation of passive production restriction is enhanced, the crude benzene inventory of coke enterprises is low, and the supply is still tight in the near future.

In the future, the fundamentals are supported by tight supply of pure benzene. Coking enterprises have certain production restrictions, and tight supply of crude benzene is expected. However, at present, the cost pressure of downstream hydrogenated benzene is high, and there is a certain fear of high price crude benzene. It is expected that in the short term, crude benzene prices will still maintain a volatile trend, with some upward space.

On September 6, the closing price of 2112, the main contract of petroleum asphalt futures, was 3242 yuan / ton and 3154 yuan / ton, down 1.62%. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of September 6, the average spot price of domestic asphalt was 3376 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.30% compared with the previous working day, the price fell by 1.07% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 32.81%.

Domestic asphalt futures fell steadily and slightly. Affected by the decline of international crude oil prices, the overall situation was slightly weak. Although the price adjustment of petrochemical enterprises pushed up slightly, the boost to the spot market was limited. In the spot asphalt market, affected by rainfall factors, the overall demand is slightly flat. Individual refineries have temporarily stopped production and loading due to environmental protection inspection factors, and other refineries load smoothly. Although the demand is better than that in the early stage, it is still difficult to achieve production and sales balance.

The demand is sluggish, and the asphalt analysts of business society expect that the domestic asphalt spot market will still be mainly sorted out in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG on September 3 was 6026.67 yuan / ton, up 116.67 yuan from 5910 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 1.97% during the week, and 5926.67 yuan / ton on September 6, up 0.28% from last Monday (August 30) and 150.42% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Looking back last week, the domestic LNG market rose first and then fell, with an increase of about 2% during the week. At the beginning of the week, the auction of feed gas in the first half of September boosted the domestic liquid market, which continued to rise. Shaanxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and other places exceeded 6000 yuan. Since the middle of the week, the market continued to decline, but the decline was not large, still hovering around 6000 yuan. Recently, the liquid price continued to rise due to multiple positive supports, which was eye-catching in the off-season market. However, the downstream receiving capacity was limited, and the resistance psychology existed all the time. It was overwhelmed. Instead, it chose other energy, scattered some demand, reduced vehicle and industrial demand, and dragged down the high liquid price. However, under the support of cost, the decline was limited, and the short-term market stalled. At present, 5900-6200 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 5920-6190 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 5770-6090 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 5930-6090 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 5800-6050 yuan / ton in Henan, 5750-5850 yuan / ton in Hebei and 6100-6150 yuan / ton in Shandong. The inlet gas price is about 4800-6150 yuan / ton. The domestic liquid price and imported gas price continued to rise in August.

Downstream products were mixed:

The negotiated price of methanol in the methanol market in southern Shandong is 2580 yuan / ton, and the factory provides cash exchange nearby. Linyi receives the local goods to negotiate the price to 2580 yuan / ton and sends them to cash exchange. There are few offers for logistics goods. The trading atmosphere was average.

For liquid ammonia, at present, the supply pressure of domestic liquid ammonia manufacturers is small, and the downstream demand has also improved. Most of them tentatively reported an increase. Superimposed on the impact of the continuous strength of urea and the boost of printing standards, the price of liquid ammonia still has room to rise in the short term.

Urea, the urea market in Shandong in the middle and early September may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the supply is tight, the demand for autumn fertilizer will be opened, compound fertilizer plants and large traders begin to take goods, the industrial demand has increased, there is also good news from the printing standard, and the market price may fluctuate slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

The LNG analyst of business agency believes that the domestic LNG market has stopped rising and turned down due to the drag of demand recently, but with the support of cost, the downward space is limited. It is expected to be sorted out at a high level in the short term and the price fluctuates slightly.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the current domestic PTA price continued to weaken slightly this week (August 30-september 3), and the tail rebounded narrowly. As of September 3, the average price in the spot market was 4877 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 2.15% and a year-on-year increase of 35.11%. The main force of PTA futures 2201 closed at 4934 yuan / ton.

In terms of devices, the current operating rate of the industry is maintained at more than 80%. With the stable operation of Yisheng new material device in September, the 1.2 million ton PTA device of hailun petrochemical and 1.2 million ton PTA device of Zhongtai Petrochemical are planned to restart next week, and the device load will increase. In addition, the supplier Yisheng supplied the full proportion of contract goods in September, and Hengli increased the supply proportion of contract goods in September to 80%. Therefore, the spot supply will rebound significantly in September, and PTA will enter the accumulated inventory.

In the upstream, the international crude oil at the raw material end recovered from the shock. As of September 2, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was reported as USD 69.99/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was reported as USD 73.03/barrel. Prior to this, the US commercial crude oil inventory data was positive, which showed that the crude oil inventory fell more than expected last week. In addition, the global economic recovery is expected to heat up, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its oil demand forecast for next year, and the oil price rise is strong. Recently, PX spot liquidity is loose, and the price shows a downward trend this week. Generally speaking, driven by the good crude oil, there is good support on the cost side.

Since late August, large polyester factories have begun to jointly reduce production, and the commencement rate has been reduced to around 82%. Polyester started to decline, superimposed on the demand expectation in the peak season, and the product price rebounded slightly. Among them, polyester POY increased by 1.93% in the week, and the quotation of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7250-7400 yuan / ton. At present, the market mentality is more cautious and the demand for PTA is not strong, mainly small order transactions.

Business analysts believe that the current PTA supply is sufficient, the follow-up of new orders at the demand terminal is slow, the downstream polyester pulse high production and marketing maintains a low operating load, and the demand is general, which is a drag on the PTA price. In the short term, the PTA price may continue to be weak and volatile.

Acetic anhydride market stable

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of acetic anhydride on September 1 was 9650.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of acetic anhydride on the previous trading day (August 31), and decreased by 0.77% compared with 9725.00 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month, up 69.30% year-on-year. The price of acetic anhydride stopped falling and stabilized, and the acetic anhydride market was flat in September.

The raw material market is stable and wait-and-see

As can be seen from the acetic acid price trend chart, the acetic acid price fluctuated slightly in late August and stabilized after rising. Although there are small differences in the acetic acid market around, the overall acetic acid market is stable and wait-and-see. The price of acetic acid was stable on September 1, and the acetic acid market remained stable on September 1.

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart, the methanol price stabilized after rising in late August, and the methanol market stabilized. The raw material cost is stable, and the rising power of acetic anhydride is weakened.

Market overview and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, believes that the market price of raw materials was relatively stable on September 1, the rise of acetic anhydride prices and raw materials was not supported, and the acetic anhydride market operated smoothly. Recently, it is still in the off-season of acetic anhydride. Downstream customers have great resistance to high price acetic anhydride, and the demand for acetic anhydride is low; Wang Long has a maintenance plan for acetic anhydride equipment recently, and the supply of acetic anhydride is expected to decrease, which is still supported by the rise of acetic anhydride in the future. Overall, the supply and demand of acetic anhydride market are both weak, the support of raw materials is absent, the acetic anhydride market runs flat, and the price of acetic anhydride is mainly stable.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market fell significantly in August. As of August 31, the average spot price was 4926 yuan / ton, down 11.11% from the beginning of the month and up 37.62% year-on-year. The futures market also weakened. On August 31, the settlement price of 2201, the main PTA futures, was 4968 yuan / ton, down more than 10% in a single month.

In terms of PTA supply, with the restart of some PTA units in mid and late August, the supply pressure has increased, and the current operating rate is more than 80%. Superimposed on the decline in demand, PTA ended destocking and began to accumulate inventory again in late August. Near the end of August, PTA’s main suppliers announced that the contract supply in September was 80%, and the suppliers reduced the supply for the sixth consecutive month.

OPEC + began to increase production. In August, the crude oil price once fell to a three-month low, the crude oil price weakened, and the PTA cost side price support weakened. The production and sales of downstream polyester factories were poor and the inventory increased. Large factories jointly reduced production, and the operating load decreased by less than 83%, down by about 5% compared with the beginning of the month. In terms of price, the polyester factory has promoted for many times, and the downstream procurement has a large volume. However, due to the weak new weaving orders, poor finished product delivery, continuous high inventory, weak orders and the impact of the epidemic on logistics, the downstream just needs procurement, and the demand for PTA is weakened.

Business analysts believe that at present, PTA cost side price support is insufficient, the follow-up of new orders at the terminal is slow, and the downstream polyester factories may increase production reduction due to poor production and sales, PTA demand will continue to be weak, and inventory may increase. In addition, PTA’s new production capacity has reached production capacity one after another, and the pressure on fundamental supply and demand has increased. It is expected that the PTA market will maintain a volatile downward trend in September.