Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (August 16): 5200.00 yuan / ton

On August 16, the factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China increased by 66.67 yuan / ton, or 1.30%, and 92.12% year-on-year compared with the quotation on August 13. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost of calcium carbide supported well. The downstream PVC market has risen slightly recently, and the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has increased. At the same time, the start of a new round of power rationing in Inner Mongolia is the main reason for the rise in calcium carbide prices.

In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 5250 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA spot market rebounded slightly this week (August 9-13). As of August 13, the average market price was 5330 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.29% and a year-on-year increase of 46.58%.

Recent changes of domestic PTA units

Enterprise name Maintenance scale (10000 t / a) Maintenance start time

Helen Petrochemical 1# one hundred and twenty It is estimated to restart at the end of August

Helen Petrochemical 2# one hundred and twenty Parking on July 30 for about 2 weeks

Fuhaichuang four hundred and fifty It was overhauled on July 27, heated up on August 4 and discharged on August 6

Yisheng new materials three hundred and thirty It was stopped on July 30 and is still under commissioning

Honggang petrochemical one hundred and fifty The load will be reduced by 50% around July 26, which is expected to last for one month

Zhongtai petrochemical one hundred and twenty Shutdown on August 5, restart date to be determined

Ningbo Taihua one hundred and twenty The car stopped unexpectedly on the evening of August 12, and it is planned to restart on August 13

In terms of supply, at present, the operating rate of the industry is around 74%. In terms of specific units, the 1.2 million T / a installation of Sinopec Thailand Petrochemical will be shut down on August 5, and the restart date will be determined; Helen Petrochemical’s 1.2 million T / a PTA unit was shut down for technical transformation around June 7, and it is estimated to restart at the end of August. Another 1.2 million T / a unit was shut down for about 2 weeks on July 30; Honggang Petrochemical 150 will reduce the load by 50% on July 26, 2021, and it is estimated to maintain it for about one month; Ningbo Taihua’s 1.2 million T / a unit was shut down unexpectedly on the evening of August 12, and it is planned to restart on August 13. The restart of the 3.3 million ton PTA plant of Yisheng new material was not smooth, and PTA was still in the de inventory state this week.

Due to the improvement of U.S. employment data and fuel demand, the international oil price rebounded slightly this week. As of August 12, the settlement price of main contracts in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was $69.09/barrel, with a weekly increase of 1.19%, and the settlement price of main contracts in Brent crude oil futures market was $71.31/barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.86%. In terms of PX, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 2.5 million tons of new PX capacity has produced qualified products, but the load is not high, and the cost side has a certain support for PTA.

Some polyester factories in the downstream have reduced or planned to reduce production, poor production and sales, the operating load has decreased to about 87%, the demand for PTA has decreased, and the enthusiasm for PTA spot procurement is general. In terms of price, the mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have preferential promotion, among which the quotation of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 7500-7700 yuan / ton, down 200-300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

Business analysts believe that the current crude oil fundamentals are acceptable, there is no basis for sustained deep decline in prices, there is a greater possibility of short-term wide-range oscillation, and the support at the raw material end remains. In addition, it is understood that a mainstream PTA supplier will further reduce the supply proportion of contract goods in August from 80% to 50%, or postpone delivery to September. Therefore, there are still tight supply expectations in the short term. However, the downstream polyester plant plans to reduce production, and the demand for PTA is expected to decline. On the whole, the power of PTA supply side remains, and the short-term price continues to be warm. In the future, we will pay attention to the implementation of the actual production reduction of polyester plants.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price rose sharply on the 12th, of which the spot nickel was 146983.33 yuan / ton, up 4.22% in a single day; The main contract of nickel 2109 rose 4.55% in one day. Spot nickel rose 4.22% over the previous trading day, 14.71% over the beginning of the year and 32.16% year-on-year.

The nickel price has been falling weakly since August, until it rebounded from its low in recent two days, basically recovering its decline since August. In terms of supply, in the early stage, the supply of ferronickel was limited due to the counterattack of the epidemic in Indonesia. In addition, due to the lack of transportation capacity, the price of high ferronickel directly broke through the high point in 2017, forcing the continuous general rise of global nickel mines and strong cost support. At present, the overseas epidemic is serious, the epidemic in the Philippines and Indonesia affects export transportation, the return of raw materials is reduced, and the overall supply is still tight. Downstream, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in June was 256000, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times. The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles from January to June increased by 2 times year-on-year, and the demand for new energy was at a high level; Downstream domestic stainless steel production and sales continued to rise, driving the demand for nickel. Low nickel inventory also supports nickel prices.

Forecast: Recently, the US Senate passed the US $1 trillion infrastructure bill, which will boost metal demand. The overall supply and demand is in a tight pattern, which has strong support for nickel price. However, there is still some pressure to break through the previous high of 150000. It is expected that the short-term high shock pattern of nickel price will be dominated.

Aluminum prices fluctuated upward in August

In early August, the average price of aluminum ingot spot market fluctuated at a high level, with an operating range of 19700-19900 yuan / ton.

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on August 10 was 19903.33 yuan / ton, up 0.13% from 19856 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Taking the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) as the benchmark price, it has increased by 26.43%.

Power rationing in Guangxi is becoming more and more strict, and power rationing and production reduction affect domestic supply

The power limitation of electrolytic aluminum in Southwest China is becoming more and more strict. China Southern Power Grid Guangxi company requires the electrolytic aluminum plants in Guangxi Province to further reduce the power load by 30%. The aluminum plants using China Southern Power Grid need to reduce the current operating capacity by 30%. It is preliminarily estimated that the annual operating capacity of Guangxi will be reduced by about 270000 tons by the end of August, and the resumption time of production is to be determined.

According to statistics, since 2021, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in five provinces has decreased due to the power restriction policy. According to the published data, the planned and reduced production capacity has reached 1.626 million tons / year, accounting for 3.7% of the annual production capacity in China.

In July, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum plant may be required to raise its production limit to 30% from the previous 25%. Electrolytic aluminum plants in Guizhou and Guangxi also began to limit power slightly two weeks ago. Some aluminum enterprises chose to carry out annual maintenance in advance or reduce load a little. The power restriction requirements became stricter, and Guizhou enterprises were required to cooperate with staggered peak power consumption. In July, there was little hope for the resumption of production capacity shut down in Yunnan, with a monthly reduction of more than 70000 tons. Guangxi power grid issued an orderly power consumption notice of 3 million million kilowatts of load reduction due to wrong peak avoidance, including 500000 kilowatts of load reduction of Baise power grid, 300000 kwh of load reduction of Laibin Power Grid and 360000 kwh of load reduction of Nanning Power Grid. According to the local load reduction demand, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the region may affect or exceed 100000 tons.

The cost side increased slightly

It is roughly estimated that the average cost of electrolytic aluminum industry will generally rise in 2021, with an increase of 11-12% compared with the beginning of the year, and the corresponding increase of aluminum price is 26%. The rising cost side is mainly due to the rising price of electricity price and raw alumina.

Future forecast

August is in the off-season, and domestic demand is expected to slow down, which poses a certain downward risk to aluminum price. However, the production capacity is reduced due to the cost and power restriction. At present, the market inventory is small, which supports the aluminum price.

Ye Jianjun, an analyst of business society, believes that the current price range of 18500-20000 yuan / ton is a steady-state shock range formed by the market game. It is expected that the aluminum ingot price will still operate around 19000 yuan / ton in the near future. On the whole, the short-term downward risk will be weakened and the high shock operation will still be maintained.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 operated smoothly in the first week of August, and the spot price was stable and small. As of August 9, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of China viscosity by the sample enterprises was about 15366.67 yuan / ton, flat compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 42.72%.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In terms of upstream caprolactam, the current domestic market undertook that the industry load decreased at the end of last month, and the supply side was in short supply, which benefited the spot price. At the same time, the impact of the decline of raw material pure benzene is also gradually expanding. In August, the global spread of the mutant virus weighed on international oil prices, compounded by the blocked shipment of enterprises and insufficient downstream demand, and pure benzene fell significantly at the beginning of the month. Caprolactam was forced to follow the decline of raw materials, but the price range was still high, the demand side followed up carefully, and the spot trading on the floor was light.

The upstream caprolactam price fluctuated and fell at the beginning of the month. Although the cost side support of PA6 was weakened, it still remained in the high range. The caprolactam on the disk had great pressure on the cost of PA6, the profitability of the polymerization plant was poor, and the enterprise load was suppressed to a certain extent. Recently, the overall operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant is about 60%, which has little change from the previous period. In terms of market demand, the demand for goods continues, and the consumption of terminal enterprises has not yet come out of the off-season market. The actual trading is mostly for manufacturers to complete early orders, and merchants try to make a firm offer. The market lacks kinetic energy and there is a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere on the floor.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that in early August, although the upstream support for the cost side of PA6 weakened, the price of caprolactam was high and the cost pressure of PA6 was high. At the same time, the domestic slice inventory increased at the end of last month. End users follow up slowly and have a strong wait-and-see mentality. The atmosphere on the floor is weak and the long and short are tangled. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may be deadlocked in the short term.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (August 6): 2820.00 yuan / ton

On August 6, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on August 2, with a year-on-year increase of 63.01%. Upstream coal prices have risen slightly recently, and cost support has been strengthened. From the aspect of demand: the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is normal; The operation of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is not high, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains high. Most of them are used with mining and followed up with a proper amount of bargain hunting. In terms of supply, urea has entered the off-season of agricultural demand, and the parking and maintenance plants are relatively concentrated. The daily output of domestic urea has decreased to about 138000 tons, with a significant reduction in daily output. In terms of transportation: affected by the epidemic situation in some areas, logistics and transportation are limited. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is weakened, the urea supply is tight, and the logistics transportation is limited.

In the future, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong is expected to decline slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2800 yuan / ton.

On August 3, the international oil price continued to fall. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was US $70.56/barrel, down US $0.70 or 0.98%, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was US $72.41/barrel, down US $0.48 or 0.66%.

Oil prices fell for two consecutive days. On the 3rd, WTI once fell below the $70 mark. WTI fell by 4.58% and Brent fell by nearly 4% in the past two trading days. Oil prices have hit nearly two-week lows. Previously, the economic data recently released by major economies did not perform well. What is more important is that the market’s concern about the slowdown in demand caused by delta virus has been further amplified, as well as the concern about the oversupply caused by the increase of production in oil producing countries.

At the macro level, the global economy is still recovering under the background of the epidemic, but the recently released Sino US economic data show that the economy is slowing down, and the market is worried about the future energy demand.

At present, the epidemic is still the main constraint on the driving force of economic recovery. The spread of delta virus, the resumption of blockade and restriction measures by some economies and countries, including the increase of epidemic prevention measures in some regions of China, undoubtedly further depresses fuel demand.

At the same time, when the prospect of crude oil demand is confused, oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia began to increase production. It is reported that the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) significantly increased oil production in July. Under the combined influence of increased supply and slowing demand, the decline in oil prices further deepened.

In addition, from the recently released inventory data, API crude oil inventory in the United States recorded a decrease of 879000 barrels in the week to July 30, far lower than the expected decrease of 1.4 million barrels, compared with the previous value of 4.278 million barrels. It can be seen that the driving season in North America is not strong enough, and there are signs of further slowdown in demand.

In the future, the business society believes that the recent oil price is still in a short market atmosphere, and the fear of oversupply caused by the increase in production of oil producing countries lingers. The latest ministerial meeting was also held on September 1. Before that, the market supply was still negative. In addition, the threat of delta virus to the global economy is also difficult to contact in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that oil prices will not perform well in the near future.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of August 2, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 3100 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.20% compared with the price on July 31, 12.05% compared with the price on July 1, and 73.83% compared with the same period last year.

In July, the overall trend of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market rose, with a monthly increase of 9.64%. In the first half of July, there was no pressure on enterprise sales, the downstream industry just needed to purchase, the market trading was orderly and the atmosphere was OK. In the second half of July, the price of raw materials was relatively strong, the enterprise mainly delivered goods normally, the market trend was balanced, and the market was mainly stable and operated at a high level. In August, the formic acid market continued to rise. From the supply side, the unit operated normally, and from the demand side, the downstream demand was relatively stable.

The supply of caustic soda in the upstream is reduced, and the demand of alumina enterprises in the downstream of caustic soda is good. It is comprehensively estimated that the short-term caustic soda consolidation operation is the main; For upstream liquid ammonia, on August 1, the reference price of liquid ammonia was 4883.33, an increase of 10.15% compared with July 1 (4433.33); For upstream sulfuric acid, on August 2, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong was temporarily stable, and the upstream sulfur market has increased slightly recently. Some sulfuric acid manufacturers have insufficient operation, the load has decreased, the downstream bromine market has gradually increased, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good; For upstream methanol, on August 2, the reference price of methanol was 2585.00, an increase of 1.17% compared with July 1 (2555.00).

Formic acid analysts of business society believe that the raw material market has operated strongly recently, the cost side has boosted market confidence, the supply and demand side is relatively stable, and the market trading is orderly. It is expected that the formic acid market may operate at a high level in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, as of July 30, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 4762.50 yuan / ton (including tax), down 0.52% from 4787.50 yuan / ton on July 26.

On July 29, the fuel oil commodity index was 96.71, down 0.25 points from yesterday, down 16.56% from the highest point 115.91 in the cycle (October 17, 2018), and up 109.87% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The slight rise of domestic marine oil raw materials supports the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business agency, as of July 30, the price of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan was 4650 yuan / ton and 4750 yuan / ton respectively; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 4900 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 5000 yuan / ton.

International crude oil prices rose, US crude oil inventories fell more than expected, and tight supply boosted oil prices. Some data show that US crude oil supply hit the lowest level since January 2020, and oil prices further increased.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, which supported fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of July 28, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell by 1.53 million barrels to a three-week low of 22.904 million barrels.

Future forecast: energy analysts of business society believe that the recent rise in crude oil prices and a slight rise in marine raw materials, but the terminal demand of the domestic marine fuel market is weak and the market trading is light. In addition, due to the impact of rainfall and typhoon in some areas, the marine refueling business is limited and the wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will remain stable in the near future.

Commodity index: on July 31, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 91.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.20% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 8.34% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of solid polyaluminium chloride in China (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) fluctuated weakly in July. Due to the torrential rain disaster in Henan on the 20th, the water treatment enterprises in Gongyi water area, one of the main production areas, were forced to stop production for about a week. In terms of quotation, most enterprises are stable, and a small number of enterprises with high inventory reduce their quotation slightly in order to ship goods. According to the monitoring data, China reported 1723.33 yuan / ton on the 1st and 1690 yuan / ton on the 31st, with a downward range of 1.93%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the data of hydrochloric acid: business society, in July, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China was mainly volatile and stable, and a small number of manufacturers slightly reduced the ex factory price in late October; Among them, the mainstream quotation on the 1st is 230 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 31st is 226.67 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 1.45%; The upstream liquid chlorine market is general, the cost support for hydrochloric acid is poor, the supply of hydrochloric acid is normal, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general. Calcium powder: according to the manufacturers in the main production area, the price was relatively stable in July, which had no significant impact on the market of polyaluminium chloride.

Secondly, liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. In July, the domestic LNG market continued to rise in the off-season, with an increase of about 30% in the month, almost doubling the level in the same period last year, which was eye-catching in the off-season of traditional consumption. The sharp rise of liquid price this month is mainly due to the rise of cost, the reduction of market supply, the increase of demand in high temperature weather, the continuous rise of air intake, and the superposition of multiple positive factors, which supports the sharp rise of domestic LNG price. The liquid price in various places rises by more than 1000 yuan within the month, and the center of gravity moves up sharply. Now the liquid price in various parts of China has risen to more than 4500 yuan / ton, and Shandong, Henan, Xinjiang and other places have broken through the 5000 mark, with the sword finger reaching 6000. Recently, there have been heavy rainstorms in many places, affecting the logistics in some areas, the market supply continues to decrease, the manufacturer’s inventory is not under pressure, and the psychology of pushing up the price is still. According to the current situation, the domestic LNG market is easy to rise but difficult to fall. At present, 4680-4900 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 4750-5050 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 4850-4950 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 4780-4880 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 5000-5210 yuan / ton in Henan, 4950-5200 yuan / ton in Hebei and 4600-5000 yuan / ton in Sichuan. The price of inlet gas is about 4500-5700 yuan / ton. The domestic liquid price and imported gas are increased to varying degrees.

Downstream demand: there was no significant improvement in the downstream demand of polyaluminium chloride in July. According to the enterprise, the current demand is still general, the enterprise has great sales pressure, and the downstream demand is generally lower than that in 2020. In particular, the production in the main production area was affected to some extent due to the rainstorm. The production was stopped for about a week. After the power was restored, the manufacturer resumed production. Due to road damage and limited logistics and transportation, the procurement of raw materials and the delivery of finished products were affected, delaying the product shipment and inventory consumption, which made the weak downstream procurement worse.

Future forecast: the business community believes that the current manufacturer’s inventory is OK, transportation and shipment are limited, and the change of raw material cost is weak, and the polyaluminium chloride market is stable and weak; However, this month, the production cost and downstream demand of LNG for production increased, and the market supply decreased, resulting in a sharp rise in the market. For polyaluminium chloride, its production cost increased. In the future, it is not ruled out that polyaluminium chloride will rise slightly, but the market will remain stable under the condition of normal production and no significant improvement in demand.