Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of August 15, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 13,200 yuan/ton, which rose by 6.88% annually and fell by 30.47% year on year. The overall market is expected to stop falling and stabilize.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic aggregate MDI market has stopped falling and needs to rise. The main factories in the North release favorable conditions, supply reduction, strict implementation of the settlement price announced at the beginning of the month, the market is obvious, other factories have not yet responded, the holders mainly accompany the shipment, the quotation is stable, but the confidence in the future market is generally insufficient, downstream negotiations have not been significantly better. Supported by cost, it is expected that short-term aggregate MDI market prices will remain stable, and market negotiations will be watched. With the gradual arrival of the traditional peak season gold, silver and ten, and the impact of domestic anniversary activities, future demand is expected to be good, and future prices are explored.

On the market side, the price range of aggregated MDI market in South China is volatile. North China and East China market providers tentative increase in quotations, South China market providers offer more stable, downstream pickup situation is very low, wait and see the market turnover. The aggregated MDI market in East China has strong shocks. On-site vendors tentatively raised their quotations and waited to see if the focus of the negotiations would move up. Sporadic inquiries from downstream traders are dominant. The aggregated MDI market in North China has remained stable. Yesterday’s low-price market negotiations are still in place, with the main shipment of goods accompanied by the holder. Marketers’offer is stable or tentative to increase the quotation and wait for the closing of the transaction.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: most refineries are still available, and driven by the reduction of temporary parking supply in some refineries and the rise of local hydrobenzene, the market mentality is positive, Shandong pure benzene market rose to 4750-4900 yuan/ton. Local hydrobenzene prices range from 4700 to 4750 yuan per ton.

Aniline: A large factory in Shandong was temporarily shut down due to typhoon, but the Jinling Dongying plant was upgraded to full load operation with normal supply. However, supported by rising costs, the domestic aniline market price is stable. North China mainstream negotiation price reference at 5620-5980 yuan/ton. However, due to the delay of shipment and the increase of market delivery, there are low prices in East China market. The mainstream of East China market refers to 5850-5950 yuan/ton acceptance.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: Supported by cost, business associations aggregate MDI analysts predict that short-term domestic aggregate MDI market prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize, and wait for market negotiations.

Price trends:

According to the data of business associations, the ABS market in China was weak in early August, and prices fell. As of August 9, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 12650.00 yuan/ton, down 1.17% from the beginning of the month.

2. Analysis of influencing factors:

Industry chain: ABS upstream, styrene market prices fell in early August, a larger decline. Most domestic enterprises reduce prices and promote sales, the downstream mainstay of low demand, spot to maintain the “buy-up-not-buy-down” mentality, wait-and-see aggravated. Recently, international oil prices and pure benzene have fallen continuously, and the news on the periphery continues to be negative. Domestic enterprises have stepped up their inventory, and merchants have a higher intention to ship goods, so they are more willing to let profits go single. Styrene is expected to be dominated by low-end finishing next week; spot supply of acrylonitrile-related products is slightly tight in August, downstream demand maintains just demand, and supply and demand in the field are basically balanced. Recently, the domestic acrylonitrile quotation is relatively stable; in early August, the domestic butadiene price continued to rise, Sinopec’s supply price continued to adjust to the high level of 10,000 yuan, a small amount of supply in Northeast China increased prices broadly, and the shortage of spot resources in East China boosted the high level of the market. The spot resources in East China are limited, and some of the high-priced goods in North China inflow to supplement. Inventory lows sustain a continuous rise in supplier prices, and high spot prices continue to boost the market. Butadiene supply side is not pressured for the time being, and the market is hard to find a low price source. Upstream three materials support ABS poorly, downstream household appliances and other factories start-up rate is reduced, supply exceeds demand. Trading is weak, business people are more open-minded.

3. Future market forecast:

Business analysts believe that ABS offer continued to fall in early August. The upstream support for ABS is not good, and the downstream factory demand is weak, the market is empty and the transaction is slow. The negative impact is stronger than the positive. It is expected that the recent trend of ABS offer will continue to be weak.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of potassium nitrate in China was reorganized this week. As of August 9, the price of potassium nitrate, the first-class industrial product in China, was quoted at 4312 yuan/ton. The market was stable this week.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic potassium nitrate Market is not hot, the overall inventory is low, the factory start-up rate is low, there is no sales pressure, the actual volume is low, downstream purchasing just wait-and-see, quantity just need to purchase, it is expected that the short-term market consolidation of potassium nitrate is the main, domestic potassium nitrate mainstream manufacturers quote 4250-4500 yuan./ Tons.

3. Future Market Forecast

The analyst of potassium nitrate of business association thinks: this week, the market of potassium nitrate is mainly consolidated, and the actual spot delivery is general. It is expected that the demand for potassium nitrate will hardly improve greatly in the short term. Market consolidation is mainly carried out. In the long run, the “gold, silver and ten” is coming, and the market may be warming up, mainly by the demand side leading price trend.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the market price of ammonium sulfate had been slightly lowered up to August 11. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 660 yuan/ton, while the average price of ammonium sulfate at weekend was 656 yuan/ton, down by 0.5%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At present, the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in Shandong is quoted at 550-720 yuan/ton, the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in Northeast is quoted at 650 yuan/ton, the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in Henan is quoted at 600-700 yuan/ton, the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is quoted at 600-680 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in Shanxi is quoted at 550-620 yuan/ton. The mainstream ammonium sulfate factory quotation in East China is about 700 yuan/ton. Domestic coking grade ammonium sulfate market demand is sluggish, slow-moving goods, showing a downward trend. The price of ammonium sulfate of lactam grade is stable and the starting rate is still acceptable. Some enterprises plan to overhaul and wait and see in the future.

Industry chain: According to the price monitoring of business associations, the distribution price of sulphuric acid in Shandong has risen slightly this week. The quotation rose from 225.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 227.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 2.50 yuan/ton, up 1.11%, down 48.88% from the same period last year. Overall, although the sulfuric acid market rose this week, due to supply and demand and raw materials and other factors, the sulfuric acid market tends to decline, and is expected to decline later. The market of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises tends to be flat and changeable, and the price of wheat fertilizer becomes clear in autumn. Enterprises are now operating rate of about 40%, affected by environmental protection, starting rate is at a low level, compound fertilizer enterprises are still cautious and cautious wait-and-see attitude. Fertilizer outbreaks in autumn occur from mid-late August to early September.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 31 st week of 2019 (8.5-8.9), there were 16 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 2 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (12.69%), acetic anhydride (10.50%) and butadiene (4.20%). There are 36 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-22.73%), sulfur (-5.81%) and propylene (-4.45%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.41%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ammonium sulphate analysts believe that the domestic ammonium sulphate off-season market is flat and demand is limited, looking forward to the outbreak of fertilizer in autumn. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are relatively cautious and have no favorable support. Narrow fluctuation of coking grade market, weak downward trend, pre-ammonium sulfate pressure behavior. The price of hexalactam grade is firm and the previous order is the main one. It is expected that ammonium sulfate Market will continue to consolidate downward and fluctuate narrowly in the later period.

According to the data of business associations, this week (8.5-8.9) the domestic price of cis-butadiene rubber rose sharply. At the beginning of the week, the price was 10,700 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the price was 11,1187 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 4.56%.

Cost side: The high price of raw material butadiene supports the formation of cis-butadiene rubber

This week, domestic butadiene spot resource supply still has some support. According to the business associations, the 60,000 tons/year extraction equipment of Shandong Witt Chemical Company stopped after a short period of operation in January, and the restart time is unknown. Huayu Butadiene Extraction Plant in Shandong Province stopped about July 12. The 100,000 tons/year Oxygen Dehydrogenation Unit in Silbang, Jiangsu Province stopped for overhaul on July 29, and the estimated time lasted about 15 days. The 30,000 tons/year plant of Liaoyang Petrochemical Company stopped for overhaul on June 5 and restarted in early August. Affected by this, the domestic butadiene market once surged this week, with Sinopec’s supply price rising to 1000-10100 yuan/ton and Northeast manufacturers’price rising to 9700-9810 yuan/ton. During the week, Sinopec’s supply price increased continuously, which brought a significant boost to the market. With the joint support of downstream stages, the nodal manufacturers’export supply increased significantly at the beginning of the week, which drove the market to a high point. However, with the rapid rise in prices, it is difficult to sustain downstream support, market prices fell slightly in the latter part of the week.

From the specific price chart, the price of butadiene has been rising all the way since this year, while the price of cis-butadiene rubber has been declining continuously. In late July, the price of butadiene has risen like a rainbow, making the cost of cis-butadiene rubber go up all the way. According to the current price of butadiene, the theoretical cost of cis-butadiene rubber is around 12800 yuan/ton. Obviously, the profit is greatly upside down. Cis-butadiene rubber has great pressure on cost surface.

Supply side: cis-butadiene rubber plant maintenance has increased since the second quarter, cis-butadiene supply has further reduced

From the table above, since the second quarter, some domestic cis-butadiene rubber manufacturers have been overhauling one after another, involving a capacity of 370,000 tons, further reducing the supply side of cis-butadiene and supporting the price of cis-butadiene rubber.

Demand side: downstream demand is still slightly weak

In the first half of 2019, domestic tire production declined slightly compared with the same period last year, and the demand for cis-butadiene rubber support was slightly weaker. According to statistics, in June 2019, the domestic output of rubber tyres was 70.279 million, down 2.45% annually, up 3.2% year on year; in January-June, the domestic output of rubber tyres was 403.745 million, down 1.0% year on year.

Future Prospects

Business analysts believe that at present, on the one hand, the price of upstream raw material butadiene has risen sharply, on the other hand, the supply of cis-butadiene rubber is relatively tight, which supports the price of cis-butadiene rubber. Later, the market of cis-butadiene rubber may continue to rise tentatively.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, since the beginning of August, the domestic phosphate ore market has been running steadily after a small fluctuation in late July. By August 8, the average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 420 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Phosphate ore in July is affected by the overall industrial chain, demand has decreased, price has loosened. Since August, with the resumption of construction of the whole plant, supply and demand have basically returned to normal, and the market has entered a stable operation. As of August 8, 22% of the main grade phosphate ore in Guizhou Province has been quoted at 160 yuan/ton with tax, and 28% has been quoted near 160 yuan/ton. The tax quotation of the main grade phosphate ore factory is around 330 yuan/ton, the tax quotation of the main 30% grade phosphate ore factory/car board is 350-430 yuan/ton, and the tax quotation of the main 30% grade phosphate ore factory in Hebei province is around 530 yuan/ton. The phosphate ore is affected by the output of the producing area, and the price difference between different regions is large.

Industry chain: Since the beginning of August, the price of yellow phosphorus, a downstream product of phosphorus ore, has continued to fall, and the price has been loosened again. As of August 8, the average price of yellow phosphorus quoted in the mainstream area is around 21500 yuan/ton, which is down about 500 yuan/ton, or 2.27% compared with August 1. Phosphoric acid products have been affected by raw material production since early July, and the market of phosphoric acid has remained stable all the way up to and after August 8.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, on August 7, 2019, there were 16 kinds of commodities rising in the 58 price rise-fall list, mainly in the agricultural and sideline sectors (4 kinds in total) and the non-ferrous sectors (4 kinds in total). The top three commodities were silver (1.99%), live pigs (1.76%) and eggs (1.65%). There were 22 kinds of commodities falling in ring ratio, mainly in nonferrous (4 kinds) and steel (4 kinds). The first three commodities falling were polyester POY (-2.67%), iron ore (Australia) (-2.63%) and WTI crude oil (-1.94%). The average daily rise and fall was 0%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business association data analysts believe that the domestic phosphate ore market is expected to remain stable in the short term.

From the fluorite price trend chart clearly shows that the fluorite price trend is slightly lower. According to statistics, the average domestic fluorite price is 3106.25 yuan/ton as of August 7. Since the end of July, the domestic fluorite price trend has declined. According to statistics, the recent domestic price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2800-3100 yuan/ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2900 yuan/ton. – The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2900-3300 yuan/ton.

Recent domestic fluorite prices have been slightly lower. Firstly, the national environmental protection is strictly checked. The fluorite start-up rate is general. In 2019, the domestic mines and flotation plants were partially shut down, which made the spot supply of fluorite in the field normal. Some of the holders still have a strong price intention. Domestic fluorite prices have been slightly lower. Secondly, the refrigerant industry has been depressed recently. For the upstream demand is poor, the price of fluorite can not support the decline. The price of hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant in the downstream has been lower recently, which has a negative impact on the domestic fluorite market, and the domestic price of fluorite has been lower. In the near future, the hydrofluoric acid Market and refrigerant industry have no obvious positive support, and fluorite prices are expected to continue to decline slightly in the later period.

Both the ups and downs have declined, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has continued to fall.

The average price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 11540 yuan/ton as of the 7th day. Recently, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has been slightly lower. The mainstream of domestic negotiations on hydrofluoric acid in Fujian is 10 500-11 500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong is 11 000-12 000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi is 11 000-12 000 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia is 11 000-12 000 yuan/ton. Negotiations in the 10 500-11 000 yuan/ton or so, hydrofluoric acid market supply is sufficient, market prices slightly lower.

In recent years, the domestic hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is more than 60%. Enterprises reflect that there is sufficient supply of hydrofluoric acid spot supply in the field. In recent years, the situation of on-site purchases is general. In recent years, due to poor downstream demand, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers’prices have slightly declined. Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is poor, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products price shocks. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions have improved, R22 refrigerant plant surface started at 50%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 1700-18500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has declined. The domestic market price trend of R134a is not good, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined. Recently, due to the common negative effect of fluorite and refrigerant industry, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is expected to continue to decline in the later period.

According to statistics, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has rebounded since the end of July. Since the end of July, the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen from 5733.33 yuan/ton to 5943.33 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 3.66%. The market demand for phthalic anhydride has improved. The manufacturers have reflected an increase in orders and the market price has stopped falling and rebounded. The mainstream of domestic phthalic anhydride supply negotiation is 5700-6000 yuan/ton, and naphthalene phthalic anhydride supply negotiation is 5300-5500 yuan/ton.

There are several reasons for the recent slight rise in phthalic anhydride market price. Firstly, the market price of upstream raw material phthalic anhydride has risen, and the actual domestic transaction price of phthalic anhydride has risen by about 100 yuan/ton to 6000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has risen. The price of raw materials mixed xylene in the upstream of phthalic acid has risen, the turnover of phthalic acid has not changed much, the stock of port phthalic acid is low, the actual transaction price of imported phthalic acid is discussed in detail, the upstream price trend has risen, the upstream raw materials are well supported, and the price of phthalic anhydride has risen. Secondly, the domestic phthalic anhydride market has maintained about 70% in recent years. Recently, domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers have reported an increase in orders, and the situation of manufacturers has improved. Although the industry is in the off-season, but the recent downstream market for phthalic anhydride has brought some good support, phthalic anhydride prices rose slightly. Third: Downstream DOP product price shocks rise, DOP downstream demand is general, customers purchase on demand, downstream PVC market shocks fall, DOP market mainstream transaction price around 7400 yuan/ton, DOP downward pressure still exists, the overall DOP market is mixed, good than bad, DOP market shocks rise mainly. Domestic phthalic anhydride market price is affected by upstream and downstream favorable factors. Downstream manufacturers mainly purchase on demand. Some manufacturers increase their ex-factory quotations, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride increases slightly.

Chen Ling, an analyst of phthalic anhydride in business associations, believes that the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the upstream has maintained 6000 yuan/ton in the near future, while the DOP market in the downstream has increased slightly, but the plasticizer is still in the off-season and the actual demand is not improving. It is expected that the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the short term will be mainly volatile, with the price around 6000 yuan

On August 5, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of the 5th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation was between 1900 and 2050 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, manufacturers in many areas are now forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The price trend of ammonium nitrate in the field is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1716.67 yuan/ton as of the 5th day. The fluctuation of nitric acid price has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate keeps low. The domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is rising slightly, the market performance is general, and the market turnover is still acceptable, mainly due to the upstream turnover. The impact of this increase, transaction remains stable, most of the manufacturers’inventory pressure eased slightly compared with the previous period, and some of the overhaul is the main part. The supply performance of most manufacturers in North China is still acceptable. The price quoted by manufacturers in North China is maintained at around 3400 yuan/ton. The price quoted by manufacturers in Northwest China is around 2900-3200 yuan/ton. The normal shipment of manufacturers is downstream. Reasonable purchasing of manufacturers and the downward trend of raw material prices have a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, the average price of n-butanol in mainstream areas was 6283.33 yuan/ton (including taxes) as of August 2. The average price of n-butanol in mainstream areas was 150 yuan/ton (including taxes) higher than that of last Friday (July 26). The weekly average price rose by 2.45%. At present, the mainstream price of n-butanol in China is around 6100-6350 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Mainstream price of n-butanol continued to rise this week. The start-up rate of n-butanol plant is about 80%, which is basically the same as last week, and the market supply is abundant. Downstream customers just need to purchase, after entering August, the ratio of inspection and repair in the n-butanol plan will increase, some downstream customers will fill warehouses at low prices, and the pressure of n-butanol sales will ease.

Industry chain: Propylene, the upstream product of n-butanol, has been rising steadily and moderately in recent days. The mainstream price of Shandong propylene market has been trading 7950-8000 yuan/ton. The overall trading atmosphere of upstream and downstream is general. Refinery stocks are low and downstream demand is good. The market will to explore remains. Main downstream butyl acrylate under cost pressure, price is firm, stable start-up.

3. Future Market Forecast

Forecast: It is expected that the price of n-butanol will increase steadily and slightly next week.