This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has risen. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3731.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.95% from the beginning of the week price of 3660 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 11.38%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. Some fluorite manufacturers are gradually recovering. However, the fluorite supply in northern regions is clearly insufficient, and the fluorite market trend has risen this week.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid prices rise, refrigerant market rises

This week, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly increased, and the mainstream price negotiated in various regions of China for hydrofluoric acid is 11300-11800 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, mainly consuming inventory. The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is rising, and the price of fluorite is affected by this news.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, coupled with the strengthening of terminal policies in the refrigerant industry, demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the main trend in the foreign trade market is price increases, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market is rising, which has led to an increase in domestic fluorite market prices.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. In addition, the downstream refrigerant market is expected to rise, and terminal demand is expected to increase. Overall, the domestic fluorite market price has an upward trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 6th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 6730 yuan/ton, which is 0.44% lower than the reference average price of 6760 yuan/ton on March 1st.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 6th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6900 yuan/ton, which is 3.27% lower than the reference average of 7133 yuan/ton on March 1st.

2、 Market analysis

Market Aspects

This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market has remained stable with small fluctuations, and prices have fallen in some regions. As of March 6th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6550-6950 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6550-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6550-6900 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus has risen this week. The supply of yellow phosphorus in the market is tight, and there is a strong willingness to raise prices in the market. Manufacturers are mainly reluctant to sell. It is expected that the domestic yellow phosphorus prices will strengthen and consolidate in the short term.

Raw material phosphate rock market. The phosphate ore market has remained stable this week, maintaining a high and steady operation. At present, the market supply and demand are balanced, and market trading is stable. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will continue to operate steadily in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphoric acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the phosphoric acid market has been stable with small fluctuations in recent days. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, leading to an increase in cost support. The phosphoric acid market maintains a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, mainly digesting early orders, with limited market transactions. It is expected that the domestic phosphoric acid market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 28th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5613.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% compared to the price of 5623.33 yuan/ton on February 24th, and a decrease of 0.30% compared to the beginning of the month. The sales pressure on the supply side is relatively high, downstream demand is average, and the market supply is strong with weak demand. The ethyl acetate market continues to decline.

This week, the domestic ethyl acetate plant started working normally, the market supply was stable, the raw material prices fell, and the cost was negatively affected. The downstream of ethyl acetate followed up on demand, and the market transactions were average. There was a lack of favorable conditions in the market, and the ethyl acetate market operated weakly.

In the future, some enterprises plan to increase the load of their ethyl acetate facilities, leading to an expected increase in on-site supply and increased pressure on market supply. Downstream weak demand is expected to follow up on demand, and market demand is limited. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will remain weak and stable in the short term. Specific attention should be paid to changes in supplier facilities and downstream follow-up situations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on February 27th, the reference price for cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province was 8925 yuan/ton. Compared with the reference price of 9000 yuan/ton on February 1st, the price has decreased by 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in February, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province showed an overall trend of “rising first and then falling”, with market prices rising at the beginning of the month and then experiencing a sharp decline.

In early February, with the return of the Spring Festival holiday, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong region experienced an upward trend. On the supply side, some factory facilities did not start production on time after the holiday, resulting in less pressure on the supply of cyclohexanone on-site and tight spot supply. The supply side provided market support. On the cost side, the high cost side provides cost support for cyclohexanone. On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the solvent and chemical fiber markets are mainly focused on essential procurement. The focus of cyclohexanone negotiations continues to rise. On February 15th, cyclohexanone rose to its highest point of the month, with a reference price of 9200 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.22% in the first half of the year.

In late February, some maintenance facilities in the cyclohexanone plant started production, easing the tight supply situation in the plant. The support provided by the supply side to the market loosened, and the cost support for cyclohexanone weakened due to the decline in the pure benzene market on the cost side. Downstream demand continued to be dominated by essential procurement, and there was no significant improvement on the demand side. Therefore, in late February, the effective support for cyclohexanone in the market was insufficient, and the market situation began to plummet, with prices continuously approaching low levels. As of February 27th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price in Shandong region was around 8600-9000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.99% in late February.

In terms of cost: In February, the cost side raw material pure benzene market fluctuated and fell at a high level, gradually loosening the cost support for cyclohexanone. On February 28th, the reference price of pure benzene was 7568 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.2% compared to February 1st (7553 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is relatively light, and some enterprises are under certain supply pressure. Downstream demand is mainly based on demand, and cost support is weak. The cyclohexanone data analyst of Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the price of lead 1 # was 17005 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.21% compared to the lead price of 16070 yuan/ton on February 24th.

This week’s market analysis

This week, the overall lead price remained within a stable range, with a slight upward trend and a significant pullback.

primary lead

Shanghai lead continues the long short game pattern, with prices maintaining a sideways consolidation, and holders continuing to adopt a market driven pricing strategy. During this period, the inventory of pick-up sources in the refinery showed a downward trend, and some enterprises suspended individual quotation and pick-up business, shifting the flow of goods to the direction of social warehouses. Downstream buyers have limited inquiries about the supply of goods from social warehouses, and the focus of market transactions is still mainly on essential orders.

Regenerated lead

With the resumption of production by recyclers, recycled lead smelters have reported an improvement in the arrival of raw materials, resulting in a decrease in the purchase price of waste batteries. It is expected that as the amount of scrapped batteries gradually recovers, the supporting role of waste battery prices on lead prices will become limited. From the perspective of smelting, according to the production schedule of various enterprises, the resumption of production of recycled lead smelters is increasing, and the supply of recycled lead is expected to maintain a growth trend in the short term.

demand side

Recently, multiple recycled lead smelting enterprises have reported good delivery of waste batteries and sufficient inventory of raw materials; In addition, some companies have plans to increase production in March, which may lead to a continued trend of high raw material prices. Currently, the inventory of lead ingots in the factory is gradually decreasing, but the overall inventory level in society is still relatively high. From the perspective of actual demand in the terminal market, after the Spring Festival, although the electric bicycle and car battery markets experienced a period of post holiday replenishment peak, the amount of battery replenishment by dealers has decreased compared to previous years, and procurement behavior appears more scattered, which makes the order growth of production enterprises not significant.

comprehensive analysis

Currently, downstream lead ingot procurement activities are still focused on essential demand, and the overall consumption situation is showing a flat trend. Overall, lead prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the styrene market fluctuated and rose in February, with an average price of 8550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 8638 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The weekly increase was 1.03%, and the year-on-year decrease was 3.92%. The styrene market in February was greatly affected by raw material costs and supply and demand. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene rose, and styrene experienced a rise. The price of pure benzene continues to rise, with high cost prices and tightened profits for styrene. However, due to demand constraints, the price has rebounded.

News: Crude oil fluctuated and fell in February, with WTI crude oil falling below $70, hitting its lowest level in two months. Under multiple pressures such as geopolitics, global economy, and weak demand, oil prices are under pressure to decline.

Cost wise: The pure benzene market fluctuated and rose in February. In early February, the market saw good sales, major factories planned maintenance, the operating rate declined, and the price of pure benzene gradually increased. In late February, Shandong’s local refining enterprises had poor shipments, and the market was promoting discounts, causing prices to fall back to around the beginning of the month level.

Supply and demand side: styrene production is at a high level, supply remains loose, and the total market inventory is relatively high. Downstream ABS, PS, and EPS production gradually resumed after the Spring Festival and basically returned to normal levels by the end of February.

Market forecast: There will be an increase in styrene maintenance enterprises from March to April, and the market will enter the stage of digesting inventory. Downstream profits are low, and the increase in production is limited. Upstream pure benzene is selling at a discounted price, and there are many resistance factors to the rise of styrene. It is expected that the short-term market price of styrene will be under weak pressure.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market operated smoothly in February, with a slight overall increase. On February 1st, the market price of aniline was 9075 yuan/ton, and on February 26th, it was 9162 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.96% and a decrease of 16.61% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

The fluctuation range of aniline in February was relatively small and fluctuated within a certain range. At the beginning of the month, supported by raw material prices, the price of aniline slightly increased. However, due to the impact of the Spring Festival, downstream demand has recovered slowly after the holiday, and the speed of aniline shipment has slowed down, resulting in high market inventory. In mid to late month, the price of raw material pure benzene continued to rise, while aniline; Profit margins have decreased, factories have raised prices, and under the influence of costs and supply and demand, prices have remained stable until the end of the month.

Pure benzene: In February, the pure benzene market first rose and then fell, with a strong rise in the first half of the month and a rebound in the second half. In the first half of the month, Shandong’s local refining companies had good shipments. Shandong Lihua Yi’s 200000 ton pure benzene plant began planned maintenance, and Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price was raised by 100 to 7750 yuan/ton, causing a price increase. Subsequently, Shandong’s local refining companies had poor shipments, and the market started to promote sales, resulting in price reductions. On February 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 7553 yuan/ton, and on February 26th, the average price of pure benzene was 7753 yuan/ton, with a 2.65% increase during the period.

3、 Future expectations

The current sales situation in the aniline market is average, with raw material prices falling and profits recovering. There are plans for major factories to conduct maintenance in the future, and it is expected that the aniline market will strengthen and consolidate in the short term.

The listing price of Sinopec East China is executed at 6550 yuan/ton, and the listing price of Sinopec North China is executed at 6550 yuan/ton. The acetone market in East China has experienced a narrow downward trend, with negotiated prices ranging from 6400-6450 yuan/ton. There was slight replenishment at the port at the beginning of the week, and the port has a capacity of around 35500 tons. Traders have increased their intention to ship, and there is room for discounts on actual orders. However, coupled with weak demand and a clear lack of trading volume, the market opened lower at the beginning of the week.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on February 24th are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily increase and decrease

East China region/ 6400./ -100

Shandong region/ 6450./ -50

Yanshan region/ 6600./ -50

South China region/ 6400./ -50

On the 25th, Lihua Yi Acetone reduced its price by 50 yuan/ton to 6400 yuan/ton. The operating rate of the acetone industry is around 80%, and the operating rate has been relatively stable recently. In the short term, the industry’s mentality is bearish, and sporadic enterprises intend to lower their listing prices. The market trading atmosphere is average, and downstream demand is strong. It is expected to maintain stable operation today.

This week, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 21, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7300 yuan/ton, which was a fluctuating decrease of 0.85% compared to the price of 7362.50 yuan/ton on February 14. The operating load of phthalic anhydride equipment is stable, and the inventory of phthalic anhydride is low; The operating load of plasticizer enterprises has decreased, and the downstream demand for phthalic anhydride has decreased. The price of ortho benzene is temporarily stable, the cost of raw materials has decreased, and the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices has increased.

Supply side: Adequate supply of goods

Domestic phthalic anhydride facilities operate stably, with 60% of phthalic anhydride manufacturers operating at full capacity. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers have high inventory levels and sufficient supply.

This week, the cost of raw materials such as benzene is temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 21st, the price of ortho xylene was 7300 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene on February 14th last weekend. The price of ortho benzene is temporarily stable, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the upward momentum of ortho phthalic anhydride is weakened. The price of industrial naphthalene has fallen, the cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the overall cost support for phthalic anhydride raw materials has weakened.

Demand side: The DOP market has fluctuated and fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 21st, the DOP price was 8513.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.16% compared to the DOP price of 8613.75 yuan/ton on February 14th last weekend. The downstream customers have completed the replenishment of inventory, but the downstream production is average. The demand for raw material phthalic anhydride urgently needs to be purchased, and the demand for phthalic anhydride has decreased, increasing the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene is temporarily stable, while the price of industrial naphthalene is falling. The cost of phthalic anhydride is decreasing, and the pressure of phthalic anhydride cost decline is increasing; In terms of demand, the operating load of DOP manufacturers has decreased, and coupled with the end of inventory replenishment, the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride demand has increased. In the future, demand will fall, industrial naphthalene prices will decrease, ortho benzene prices will remain stable, and the cost of phthalic anhydride will decrease. It is expected that phthalic anhydride prices will decline in the future.

This week (2.15-2.21), the nickel market first fell and then rose, with an overall upward trend. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of February 21st, spot nickel prices were reported at 126016 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.29%.

Macro: Currently, with the measures taken by the People’s Bank of China to support economic recovery, China’s new bank loans in January hit a historic high and exceeded expectations, which has strengthened people’s expectations that China will introduce more stimulus measures in the coming months.

Supply side: Due to the tight supply during the rainy season, nickel ore prices have risen in the mining sector. The pattern of nickel surplus continues. On February 21st, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 28254 tons, a decrease of 863 tons during the week; The trend of LME nickel inventory accumulation has not stopped. On February 21st, LME nickel inventory was 192906 tons, an increase of 12006 tons during the week.

On the demand side: The resumption of work and procurement by downstream enterprises has improved, but overall demand growth remains relatively slow. There is an expected increase in stainless steel production in March, and some downstream enterprises have started to purchase materials in small quantities. The recovery of export orders is good, but the overall purchasing atmosphere is weak. Stainless steel prices have slightly increased this week. As of February 21st, the daily average price of spot 304/2B stainless steel flat plate 1.0 * 1219 * 2438 (tolerance 0.91) is currently quoted at 12164.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.29% from the beginning of the week. The proportion of installed ternary batteries is gradually decreasing, and the production of ternary positive electrode materials is mostly determined by sales, without contributing to incremental growth.

Market forecast: slight boost in demand, macroeconomic sentiment disturbance, but the pattern of nickel surplus continues, and the upward trend of the market is limited. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the low range.