1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the domestic neopentyl glycol market price was adjusted at a low level this week. The average price of the mainstream market of neopentyl glycol in China this week was 10433.33 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 38.02% year-on-year. On June 5th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 36.38, a decrease of 1.35 points from yesterday, a decrease of 65.54% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 20.78% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The price of neopentyl glycol in the mainstream market was temporarily stable this week.

From the perspective of neopentyl glycol upstream raw material market, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 7700.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7433.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 3.46%. Weekend prices fell by 53.15% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of neopentyl glycol was negatively affected.

3、 Future prospects

In mid to late June, the trend of the new pentanediol market may fluctuate slightly and decline mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market slightly declined, and cost support weakened. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of June 5, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1010 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to June 1, 2023; Compared to May 1, 2023 (reference price of phosphate rock is 1090 yuan/ton), the price has been reduced by 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.42%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in early June (6.1-6.5), the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole showed stable and consolidation operation. At the beginning of the month, the overall downstream demand for domestic phosphorus ore remained relatively stable, with average demand support. The overall supply side was slightly tight, and the supply side provided some support. The trading atmosphere in the phosphorus ore field was light, and the mentality of the phosphorus ore industry was average. The overall market remained stable and excessively operated. As of June 6th, the domestic 30% grade phosphorus ore market price was referenced around 950-1100 yuan/ton. There are also differences between the specific price and factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to lump ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated through actual orders.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market Trend of Phosphate Rock

At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field has generally boosted, but the recent rebound in downstream product prices of phosphate ore is expected to give a certain positive boost to the phosphate ore market. The phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly adjust and operate in multiple intervals, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic MTBE market has declined. From May 29th to June 2nd, the price of MTBE dropped from 7487 yuan/ton to 7350 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.84% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 1.84%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.98%.

After the price rose to a certain high level in the early stage, downstream resistance led to a gradual slowdown in manufacturers’ shipments, with the main focus on profit and volume. At the same time, Shandong Minghao, Dongying Shenchi, and Shandong Chengtai have successively started construction, and the tight spot supply situation is gradually easing. However, the positive demand side has limited boost, coupled with a significant decline in international crude oil, causing the MTBE market to decline in a volatile manner.

Cost and crude oil: the market is worried about whether the US Congress will pass the US debt ceiling agreement, overlapping the internal differences of oil producing countries OEPC+, and the oil market is under pressure. On June 2nd, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil for Business Society was 72.60 US dollars per barrel, while the benchmark price of WTI crude oil was 68.09 US dollars per barrel. The cost side is bearish for the domestic oil industry chain, while the MTBE cost side is bearish.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, the increase in summer demand has some support for oil prices, but the weakness of crude oil and the expectation of a new round of retail price limits have suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, making it difficult to close large orders. The demand side of MTBE is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, early maintenance companies are gradually starting work, and MTBE supply is gradually taking control, resulting in a bearish impact on the supply side.

As of the close on June 1st, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $7.4 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $913.39- $915.39 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $5.75 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $982.49-982.99 per ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States has decreased by $2.7/ton compared to the previous trading day as of June 1, while the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $7.4/ton compared to the previous trading day. FOB Singapore has closed at $913.39-915.39/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $5.75 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $982.49-982.99 per ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by 2.7 US dollars per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at 939.21-939.57 US dollars per ton (264.57-264.67 US cents per gallon).

In the future market forecast, the supply volume will increase and the demand side will perform weakly. MTBE analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic MTBE market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene showed a trend of first falling and then rising this month. On May 1st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7830 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, the price was 7470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.6% compared to the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of crude oil, in the first half of the month, with the deepening of macro risk aversion and cautious trading atmosphere in the energy market, Gulf News reported on May 5th that Saudi Arabia has lowered crude oil futures prices in the Asian market; The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company of the United Arab Emirates announced that it will reduce crude oil shipments by 5% from May to seek a balance between supply and demand of crude oil; The unexpected increase in crude oil inventories in the United States has deepened market concerns about economic recession, and the oil market has developed in a volatile manner.

In mid May, the US crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased. The EIA monthly report predicts that US crude oil production will increase by about 5% in 2023, and fuel demand will increase by 1%. It is expected that US crude oil production will increase by 5.1% to 12.53 million barrels per day in 2023, and the oil production of major shale oil producing areas in the US will reach a historic high in June; The United States intends to purchase 3 million barrels of sour crude oil to supplement its strategic oil reserves that are about to run out.

In the second half of the month, the United States initially reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, avoiding the risk of default, but there are still expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve; Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the current goal of Russia and OPEC+is to ensure a balance between supply and demand of crude oil to maintain market stability.

The crude oil price fluctuated and fluctuated in May. On May 31st, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil in the trading company was 72.67 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -5.35% compared to the beginning of this month (76.78 US dollars per barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 77.10 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -4.02% compared to the beginning of this month (80.33 US dollars per barrel).

Downstream, domestic PX prices have shown a downward trend this month. On May 1st, the benchmark price of PX was 9000 yuan/ton. On May 31st, the price dropped to 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.78%. In May, PX supply slightly increased, and the domestic PX operating rate was over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some PX devices, the domestic PX price trend declined due to the increase in supply.

In terms of OX, the overall price of OX has shown a stepwise downward trend this month. On May 1st, the price was 8800 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, the price was 8100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month, with a decrease of 7.95%. The downstream phthalic anhydride market of OX is stabilizing, while the downstream plasticizer market is declining. Demand is mainly in demand, and the overall upward momentum of the adjacent benzene market is weakening. There is still downward pressure, and the adjacent benzene market will temporarily stabilize in the future.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices have fallen and risen this month. On May 1st, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8648.6 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, it was 8428.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220.4 yuan/ton or 2.55% compared to the beginning of the month. The domestic refined oil market still lacks demand support, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the sales pressure of main units at the end of the month is high, resulting in a downward pressure on domestic gasoline prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In terms of crude oil, the OPEC+alliance will hold a meeting in Vienna on June 4th to decide on production policies; As the weather warms up, gasoline demand is improving, but downstream demand for fine chemicals is weak, providing limited price support, with gasoline primarily in demand; The current US economy is better than expected and the risk of debt default has decreased, leading to an increase in short-term market risk appetite. Affected by fundamentals, the mixed xylene market is operating weakly, with mixed xylene operators mainly consolidating in the short term. Pay attention to the market trends of crude oil and gasoline, as well as the impact of mixed xylene and downstream equipment dynamics, port inventory, and external markets on the price of mixed xylene.

In May 2023, the market performance of viscose staple fiber was calm, with a new price implemented in the early part of the month, and the price remained stable after a slight increase. The transaction atmosphere is relatively average, and the raw material inventory of the yarn factory is maintained until mid June. The demand for human cotton yarn is not strong, and the price increase is weak. The yarn factory is mainly wait-and-see, and new orders are scarce. There is not much change in production costs, raw materials are maintained, and cost support is limited. The price center of raw material dissolved slurry remains stable, with the domestic market mainly maintaining stability; The price of imported dissolved pulp is basically maintained, with broadleaf dissolved pulp around 900 US dollars/ton and needle leaf dissolved pulp around 920 US dollars/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the center of gravity of viscose staple fiber prices slightly moved up in May. As of May 30th, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 13360 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.60%.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Downstream people’s cotton yarn is relatively stable, with average transactions and prices basically maintained. However, some enterprises have experienced price reductions and promotions under inventory pressure. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 30th, the average ex factory price of people’s cotton yarn (30S, ring spinning, first-class product) was 17566 yuan/ton, which is consistent with the price at the beginning of the month. At present, it is difficult for the demand in the textile terminal market to significantly improve, and yarn enterprises are also difficult to have a strong position. They often adjust their negotiation space based on their own shipment situation.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the market supply has been stable, and the overall buying and selling atmosphere in the short-term market has been limited. Viscose staple fiber manufacturers are still mainly executing early orders, and some viscose staple fiber manufacturers have the intention to push up. However, in the absence of significant improvement in terminal demand, business analysts predict that the prices of viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn may continue to operate steadily in the short term, and the market is waiting for or will introduce a new round of price policies.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Business Society, copper prices fluctuated and fell in May, with a price of 67431.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 65735 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The overall decline was 2.52%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.46%.

According to the current chart of the Business Society, copper futures prices in May were generally higher than spot prices, with the main contract being the expected price in two months, and the overall copper market in May was bearish. Towards the end of the month, the main basis decreases, which is good for buying hedging.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory slightly increased in May, suppressing copper prices.

Macroscopically, the Bank of England announced a 25 basis point hike in its benchmark interest rate to 4.5%, and stated that further tightening of monetary policy is needed if there is more holding pressure on inflation. The total number of completed home sales in the United States in April was 4.28 million, a decrease of 3.4% month on month, lower than the expected -3.2% and -2.6%, the largest month on month decline in 11 years. The US debt ceiling negotiation was fruitless, and the economic outlook was worrying. On June 1, the US was forced to default because it would be unable to fulfill its payment promise, which made the global risk appetite panic. Federal Reserve officials are mixed and uncertain about whether to raise interest rates in June, conveying ambiguous signals.

In terms of supply: In May, the overall supply of copper was loose, and there was almost no interference at the mining end in the past two months. The production and port transportation issues of external mines were gradually solved, and copper concentrate continued to be marginal loose. The export channels of Congo copper mines have been restored, and Peru copper mines have resumed operation with a significant increase in production in March. In addition, LME registered warehouse receipts and inventory are still steadily increasing, which has a strong impact on copper prices.

In terms of demand: May has entered the off-season, and the operating rate of copper companies is generally lower than the same period last year. Cable companies have slowed down their new orders, and the performance of home appliances and power tool restocking is poor. Orders in the enameled wire industry have declined. Buying stocks on dips in the middle and lower reaches, with a fear of falling, only purchasing according to demand, without excessive inventory of raw materials and finished products.

Based on the above situation, in May, copper supply was sufficient, demand was weak, and the overall performance of copper was poor. Towards the end of the month, optimistic negotiations on the US debt ceiling boosted the stock market and eased concerns about a slowdown in the US economy. Market confidence was encouraged, and copper prices rebounded. However, LME copper inventory continues to grow, and demand remains weak, which poses a pressure on copper prices above. June is still the traditional off-season for consumption, and copper prices are expected to remain low and volatile in June.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market has slightly rebounded. From May 22 to 26, the domestic aggregate MDI market price rose from 15180 yuan/ton to 15200 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.13%, a month on month decline of 4.16%, and a year-on-year decline of 12.14%. The atmosphere of the domestic aggregated MDI market has warmed, and as prices rise, the ability to follow up has weakened. The overall downstream digestion ability has not changed much, and the market is mainly driven slowly.

On the supply side, the overall changes in the equipment are not significant. The initial maintenance plan for the 130000+70000 ton/year MDI distillation unit in Dongcao, Japan, is expected to be around January, which will affect the 80000 ton/year MDI distillation unit in Dongcao Ruian, China. It is expected that the supply and inventory of goods will decrease slightly.

On the cost side, the domestic pure benzene market continues to decline, and the overall demand atmosphere is weak. Downstream consumption of raw material inventory is the main factor. On May 26th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society was 6752.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of -9.17% compared to the beginning of this month (7433.83 yuan/ton). Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market has rebounded slightly. The main reason is that downstream pickup has improved, and aniline factories have been smoothly restocking, driving prices up. The cost of aggregating MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, the overall downstream follow-up is relatively slow, and bargain-hunting and replenishment can still maintain order volume. However, after the price rises, the overall buying sentiment is weak, and the increase is suppressed. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is relatively short.

In the future market forecast, as prices rise, the market atmosphere gradually weakens, and traders’ quotes are scarce, with a focus on wait-and-see. Analysts from Business Society Aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market will be sorted and operated.

On May 25th, the average market price in the East China region was 198510 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.56% compared to the previous working day. The mainstream quotation range for 1 # tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market is 198500 to 200500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 199500 yuan/ton, an increase of 4000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.

On the night of the 24th, non-ferrous metals generally fell, with only Shanghai Tin closing up 0.13%. By the end of the 25th, the main 2306 contract of Shanghai Tin had settled at 196980 yuan/ton, with a closing increase of 2.17%. On the 24th, the ITA International Tin Association stated that the Ministry of Finance of the Wa State in Myanmar issued a notice on May 20, 2023, regarding the implementation of the “suspension of all mineral resource mining”. The policy of ceasing all exploration, mining, processing and other operations in mines after August 1, 2023 will be implemented. After this news was released, the market raised concerns about tin ore supply in the future, and the futures market rose. However, the recent market atmosphere has been generally negative, and demand expectations have been generally weak, resulting in limited overall market growth.

From the perspective of supply and demand, there have been limited changes this week, and manufacturers still have a strong mentality of price competition. The supply at the mining end is tight but has not improved yet, and refineries have a strong reluctance to sell. The demand side has limited changes and still shows weak demand. Overall, the weak downstream demand pattern continues, and the impact of domestic supply and demand on tin prices remains weak. It is necessary to focus on the impact of domestic and foreign macro factors on the market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has been fluctuating and declining recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1170.00 yuan/ton, and at the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1160.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared to last week. The current price has dropped by 12.12% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde market in Shandong has fluctuated and dropped. It can be seen from the figure above that the recent market of formaldehyde mainly fluctuates slightly, and this week’s market has declined. As of May 22, the mainstream market value price in Shandong was 1120-1200 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated slightly, with moderate support for formaldehyde. Downstream panel factories started smoothly, with moderate demand support on the market. Market trading sentiment was poor, and the formaldehyde market fell.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market has significantly declined, and the market atmosphere continues to be weak. After the futures price fell below the integer threshold of 2200 yuan/ton, the market sentiment became less confident. At the same time, the raw coal is still weak, the downstream demand is weak for a long time, the social inventory of the methanol market continues to accumulate, the source of imported goods also continues to pour in, and the spot market price of methanol drops again and again.

Recently, the methanol market has been fluctuating, and downstream sheet metal factories have maintained just in demand procurement. The market transactions have been flat, so formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fluctuate and decline in the near future.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 21, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 7564.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13% compared to May 15 at 7574.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7400-7600 yuan/ton.

As of May 21, the mainstream factory average price of locally refined straight-run naphtha in China was 7264.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared to May 15 at 7326.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7200-7400 yuan/ton.

On May 21, the naphtha commodity index was 93.35, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.26% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and an increase of 121.00% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha fluctuated and declined, with weak costs and demand. Terminal restructuring and ethylene demand continued to be weak, with limited market trading and light trading volume.

The international crude oil market rose sharply this week, mainly because the market’s optimism about the US debt ceiling negotiations supported oil prices. Russia’s commitment to reduce crude oil production is aimed at supporting global oil prices. All actions including voluntary production reduction are related to OPEC+’s partnership and providing a stable environment for the oil market.

According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene has rebounded after falling this week. On May 15th, toluene was at 7160.00 yuan/ton, and on May 19th, it was at 7050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. The price of mixed xylene continued to decline this week, reaching 7520 yuan/ton on May 15th and 7390 yuan/ton on May 19th, a decrease of 1.73%. The price trend of PX this week is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the factory price of domestic paraxylene is 8300 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the international crude oil market has been volatile this week, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. In addition, the cost and demand of local refining naphtha are currently weak, and terminal restructuring and ethylene demand continue to be weak. Market trading is limited, and transactions are light. It is expected that local refining naphtha will be mainly weak in the near future.