The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 31st, the price of isooctanol was 7800 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.63% compared to the price of 7600 yuan/ton on January 1st at the beginning of the month. The construction of new equipment and the high level of equipment construction in isooctanol enterprises have led to sufficient supply of isooctanol. With stocking before the Spring Festival, the demand for isooctanol has rebounded, resulting in a double increase in supply and demand. In January, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose. After the holiday, the demand for isooctanol replenishment briefly rebounded.

Double increase in supply and demand of isooctanol in January

Isooctanol enterprises are operating at a high level, coupled with the continuous production of new octanol capacity, resulting in an increase in the supply of isooctanol. Before the Spring Festival, downstream manufacturers replenished their inventory, leading to an increase in demand for isooctanol and a greater driving force for its price increase.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and rise in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 31st, the DOP price was 8576.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 4.25% compared to the DOP price of 8226.25 yuan/ton on January 1st at the beginning of the month. The rise in raw material prices has led to an increase in the cost of plasticizer DOP. Stocking up before the Spring Festival has led to an increase in demand for plasticizers. Supported by rising costs and demand, there is a significant driving force for the increase in plasticizers. After the holiday, the demand for plasticizers briefly rebounded due to restocking.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, in the future, the high equipment production of isooctanol enterprises, coupled with the production of new equipment, will alleviate the shortage of isooctanol supply and ensure sufficient supply of isooctanol; After the Spring Festival, the replenishment of stocks has ended, and the expected demand for isooctanol has weakened. The strong supply and weak demand of isooctanol are expected to lead to a weak and stable price trend in the future market.

Market Review of Maleic Anhydride in 2024

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of maleic anhydride in China will fluctuate downward in 2024, with an average market price of 7860 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 6520 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a year-on-year decline of 17.05%. The highest point of the year occurred on January 2nd at 7890 yuan/ton, and the lowest point of the year occurred on November 18th at 6260 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 21.55%. The domestic maleic anhydride market will experience a significant decline in 2024.

According to the monthly K-bar chart data of the maleic anhydride market from Shengyi Society in 2024, the market experienced more fluctuations than gains, with 4 months of upward movement and 8 months of downward movement. The highest increase was in May, up 4.45%, and the highest decrease was in January, down 8.4%.

There will be two significant upward trends for maleic anhydride in 2024: temporary parking by Wanhua in the second half of May, coupled with maintenance by Dafeng Jiangning, resulting in a decrease in the supply of maleic anhydride spot goods, limited factory shipments, limited market circulation, and continuous price increases; In mid December, the Wanhua maleic anhydride production plant in Yantai unexpectedly shut down, resulting in a significant decline in the supply of liquid anhydride in the market. At the beginning of the week, the price of the main maleic anhydride factory increased by 1000 yuan/ton, and dealer quotes followed suit. However, after the resumption of production, the overall market situation of maleic anhydride is in a downward trend, mainly due to the continuous increase in domestic maleic anhydride market supply and the weak demand for unsaturated resins in the downstream market.

Market forecast for maleic anhydride in 2024

Cost aspect:

Raw material n-butane: In 2024, the n-butane market fluctuated widely, with a range of 5050-5400 yuan/ton. The n-butane market is mainly affected by significant fluctuations in the international crude oil market, coupled with the domestic naphtha market rising first and then falling, which provides limited cost support for the n-butane market.

Supply side: The production capacity of maleic anhydride in 2024 is 3.546 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 94.19%., The n-butane oxidation method has gradually replaced the benzene oxidation method as the main development trend. 2025 is a year of concentrated release of new production capacity for maleic anhydride, with an expected increase in capacity of over 2.33 million tons. The total effective production capacity of butane method will exceed 5 million tons per year.

Demand side: Maleic anhydride is commonly used in the production of unsaturated polyester resins (UPR), BDO (1,4-butanediol), curing agents, organic acids (including succinic acid, tartaric acid, malic acid, etc.), water treatment agents, and other products.

The unsaturated resin industry is still one of the largest demand areas for maleic anhydride, accounting for nearly 50%. In 2024, the situation of oversupply of UPR will continue, and most production enterprises will maintain a low operating state. The unsaturated resin market in 2024 will mainly fluctuate within a certain range. The main consumption areas of domestic UPR in 2024 are fiberglass composite materials, artificial stone, coatings, handicrafts, buttons, coatings, etc. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November, the investment in real estate development in China decreased by 10.4% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.1% compared to the period from January to October. The cumulative area of newly started housing construction from January to November decreased by 23.0% year-on-year, and the decline expanded by 0.4% month on month; The completed area decreased by 26.2% year-on-year, and the decline continued to expand by 2.3%. The sales area of commercial housing from January to November decreased by 14.3% year-on-year, narrowing by 1.5% compared to January to October. Real estate investment continues to decline significantly, with a severe shortage of new construction projects. The demand for glass in the real estate sector continues to decline significantly, and the demand for unsaturated resin industry in traditional terminal industries has limited growth. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 23.904 million and 20.257 million respectively, an increase of 4.4% and 4.7% year-on-year; The production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 10.727 million and 9.594 million respectively, an increase of 37% and 41.2% year-on-year. This year, the average penetration rate of new energy vehicle production reached 44.9%, an increase of 10 percentage points compared to last year. With the continuous expansion of the new energy vehicle market, the demand for unsaturated resins in the automotive industry has increased.

In 2024, the domestic BDO market price experienced narrow fluctuations in the first half of the year and a rebound after a decline in the second half. The average price at the beginning of the year was 9535 yuan/ton, and the average BDO price at the end of the year was 8471 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.16%. Overall, the domestic BDO trend showed weak fluctuations in the first half of the year, followed by a rebound after a decline in the second half. The overall price center of gravity and fluctuation range have both shifted downward, mainly due to fierce market competition under industry overcapacity pressure, with prices falling below the average cost line. The overall price trend is weak, and the volatility has decreased compared to previous years. The price difference between high and low ends is only 2200 yuan/ton, and the fluctuation range has further narrowed. In recent years, the BDO capacity in Chinese Mainland has shown a sustained and rapid growth trend. Looking back at the past, the initial BDO production capacity was only 76000 tons per year. However, after years of development and project construction, the existing BDO production capacity will be 4.821 million tons per year by 2024, and it is expected to reach 9 million tons per year by 2027, with an astonishing increase. The newly added production capacity has significantly exceeded the average level of the previous three years. This has greatly improved the market supply capacity, but also brought potential pressure of overcapacity to the market.

Market forecast: Currently, China’s real estate investment continues to decline significantly, and there is a serious shortage of new construction projects. The demand from traditional terminal industries has limited impact on the unsaturated resin industry; The implementation of the policy of scrapping and replacement in 2024 has played a significant role in boosting the automotive market. It is expected that the subsidy policy for the automotive market will continue to be implemented in 2025, which will continue to boost the automotive market and increase the demand for unsaturated resins in the automotive industry. In recent years, BDO, as an important basic chemical raw material for industries such as biodegradable materials, new energy vehicles, and thermoplastic elastomers, is expected to usher in new growth points in the industry. At present, the domestic maleic anhydride market is in a state of oversupply. In 2025, there will still be new production capacity for maleic anhydride in China. In addition, the maleic anhydride market is still in a loss making state. However, downstream demand for maleic anhydride is limited, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the market will continue to exist in 2025. It is expected that the domestic maleic anhydride market will mainly fluctuate widely in 2025.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China has risen this month (1.1-1.25), with an average market price of 245960 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 247210 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 0.51%.

The tin price in January showed overall fluctuations and upward movements.

At the mining end, domestic tin mines have tightened this month, and processing fees have continued to decline. The probability of resuming production in the Wa State of Myanmar after the Spring Festival is relatively high. This move will help alleviate the current tension in the tin supply side, which will directly have a negative impact on tin prices. In addition, with the stabilization of Indonesian tin ingot exports and the stabilization of supply in Africa and South America, the supply pattern of the global tin market will be further optimized. In the long run, the grade of tin ore continues to decline, new production capacity is limited, and reserves continue to decline, which means that the tin supply side is still tight.

On the inventory side, the supply of tin concentrate has tightened recently, processing fees have been reduced, and the operating rate of smelters has decreased, resulting in a slight decrease in tin ingot production. In addition, the market’s explicit inventory continues to decrease and fall to a low level, giving tin prices upward elasticity due to the low inventory state.

On the demand side, although the seasonality of the consumer side is weakening, the pre Spring Festival inventory demand has led to active market trading. Downstream soldering companies have performed well in orders, especially in the context of sustained growth in consumer electronics products. As a key component, the demand for soldering materials has maintained a certain level of growth in a stable manner.

Overall, tin prices showed a fluctuating upward trend in January. However, considering the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, market demand may temporarily weaken and

market trading volume may decrease. It is expected that tin prices will fluctuate within the range in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 23, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6680 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average price of 6680 yuan/ton on January 17.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 23, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 7100 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average of 7100 yuan/ton on January 17.

2、 Market analysis

Market aspect

Domestic phosphoric acid prices remained stable this week. As of January 23rd, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6700-7000 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 6600-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6700-7400 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the price of yellow phosphorus market is running weakly, and market trading is flat. Downstream investors are cautiously observing. At present, the market supply is decreasing, and there are maintenance plans during the Spring Festival period. The production of yellow phosphorus will continue to decline. It is expected that domestic yellow phosphorus prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This week, the supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market are balanced, and the market is running steadily. The downstream pre holiday stocking task has been basically completed, but market trading is limited. It is expected that there will be no significant changes in the market before the holiday.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of the phosphate market has been stable. The raw material market is running weakly, with average cost support. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement before the holiday has weakened, and market trading is limited. The short-term acid market is expected to remain stable and stable, with a focus on consolidation and operation.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method for producing pyrite type titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market remained stable in January, with an average price of 14900 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market remained stable and organized in January. The domestic terminal market has a sluggish trading situation. The downstream market demand is generally average. The price of raw material titanium concentrate has risen, and the price of sulfuric acid is high. The production cost pressure of titanium dioxide enterprises is still relatively high, and the market quotation is relatively firm. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some companies are conducting routine maintenance, and the supply of certain models is tight. Manufacturers mainly ship orders on hand, while downstream companies and distributors purchase according to demand, resulting in a strong wait-and-see attitude in the market. On the 21st, Longqi led a letter to raise the price of titanium dioxide, and the specific market performance needs further observation. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14000-15700 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 13000-13200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of raw material titanium concentrate increased in December. The supply of raw ore in the Panxi region has significantly decreased, and the cost pressure on beneficiation plants is high. Processing plants have been shut down one after another, and the overall inventory in the field is not high, resulting in tight supply and a strong upward trend in titanium ore prices. However, downstream costs are under significant pressure, and actual orders are often cautiously observed, with a focus on essential procurement. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1420-1450 yuan/ton, the price of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 1980-2080 yuan/ton, and the price of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2000-2200 yuan/ton. It is expected that in the short term, the mainstream titanium ore prices in the Panxi region will be mainly strong.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that this month, titanium dioxide companies have gradually implemented their annual inspection plans, resulting in a decrease in titanium dioxide supply and low inventory in the market. Longqi led a letter to raise the price of titanium dioxide, boosting confidence in the titanium dioxide market. It is expected that the trend of titanium dioxide will be strong in the short term, depending on downstream market demand. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

Analysis: In the first two working days of this week, the domestic liquid ammonia market performed poorly, with liquid ammonia in the main production area of Shandong falling for two consecutive days. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong has experienced a decline of 3.60%. The main reason is that the supply side is loose, the operating rate of manufacturers has not changed much, and the amount of urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers has increased, which has put pressure on the price of liquid ammonia. At the beginning of the week, major factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by around 100 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is not high, with a focus on maintaining light inventory before the holiday. The prices of new orders in the peripheral market have continued to decline, and the market performance is mainly cautious. Agricultural demand is still in the off-season, while industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is 2250-2350 yuan/ton.

Prediction: As the Spring Festival approaches, the market atmosphere will be light, fertilizer procurement will be off-season, downstream operating rates will significantly decrease, and industrial demand will follow suit. However, the supply of liquid ammonia is relatively sufficient, and the pressure of supply and demand is prominent. It is expected that there is still room for a downward trend in ammonia prices before the holiday.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, 85% of the domestic industrial grade formic acid market operated steadily in January. As of January 20th, the price of 85% formic acid was 3000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.69% from 2950 yuan/ton on January 1st; Compared to the same period last year, the price of 3150 yuan/ton decreased by 1.76%.

In January, the domestic market price of 85% industrial grade formic acid was roughly around 3000 yuan/ton. Upstream methanol is weak and fluctuating, while downstream markets are average, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Enterprise quotations are mainly at 3000 yuan/ton. As the Mid Autumn Festival approaches, the cost impact is not significant, and inventory is under pressure. Downstream stocking enthusiasm is poor, and some companies have lowered prices to reduce inventory. After the holiday, it is expected that the market will remain cautious and the price of formic acid will remain stable.

In terms of cost, the domestic methanol production rate is high and the output is increasing, while downstream demand enterprises face significant cost pressure and limited demand growth. In addition, factors such as high port inventory and increased arrival forecasts may exert some pressure on market prices.

According to the formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society, the upstream of formic acid is currently under pressure, while downstream users maintain their demand for purchasing. It is expected that 85% of industrial formic acid will operate stably in the short term, and specific market information still needs to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 12th to 17th, the domestic ethanol price rose from 5195 yuan/ton to 5207 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.24% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 19.11%. The domestic edible ethanol market is mainly characterized by stable prices. Overall, the supply of spot goods on site is relatively loose. With the Spring Festival travel rush, the country is also experiencing the coldest time of the year. With logistics gradually taking a break, terminal stocking may be nearing its end.

In terms of cost, the price of corn in the main production areas is stable with some increase, corresponding to a cost increase of 10-40 yuan/ton. The profit margin of alcohol enterprises is still slim. Based on the current corn and alcohol prices, the profit is estimated to be around 20 yuan/ton. The cost support of ethanol is still acceptable.

On the supply side, the alcohol production facilities in the Henan market may have a shutdown plan during the Spring Festival period. The overall spot supply on the supply side is abundant, and the willingness of enterprises to raise prices is strong. The inquiry atmosphere is still acceptable. There are unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support still exists; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous ethanol; The utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity fluctuates narrowly. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

In the future forecast, downstream enterprises are watching the market with insufficient positive news, and terminal procurement is mainly for essential needs. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

In 2024, the domestic nylon filament market operated weakly throughout the year, with prices fluctuating with the cost side, with fluctuations seen in both directions, with less increase and more decrease, resulting in a broad decline in overall prices.

The price has experienced a wide decline throughout the year

The year-end price of nylon DTY was 17080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1820 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, with an annual decline of 9.63%. The year-end price of nylon POY was 14650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1775 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, with an annual decline of 10.81%. The year-end price of nylon FDY was 17925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1725 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, with an annual decline of 8.78%.

The average price of nylon DTY70D/24F in 2024 is 18592.13 yuan/ton, and the average price in 2023 is 19131.45 yuan/ton, with an annual average price decline of 2.82%. The annual high appeared in early June, with a price of 19600 yuan/ton; The lowest point of the year occurred at the end of December, with a price of 17080 yuan/ton.

Price Trend of Nylon Silk in 2024

1. At the beginning of the year, the market price of raw materials surged significantly, and the downstream market entered the replenishment stage before the Spring Festival. Both the cost and demand sides had positive support, and the price of nylon filament market was cautiously upward.

2. In the second quarter, the prices of raw materials such as caprolactam and PA6 chips continued to rise, coupled with the arrival of the “Silver IV” project. The production of downstream equipment in the domestic market remained at a high level, with strong demand and decent foreign trade business. Supported by the dual benefits, the prices of nylon filament in the market skyrocketed.

3. In the second half of the year, the market prices of caprolactam and PA6 chips fell significantly, with weak cost support, and the market prices of nylon filament continued to decline; In early December, driven by the rise in costs, there was a slight increase, but downstream factories continued to accumulate finished product inventory, which dragged down the market trend on the demand side. At the end of the year, the price of nylon filament market fell weakly.

The highest price of nylon DTY in the year was in early June, with a price of 19600 yuan/ton; At the end of December, the lowest price of the year was 17080 yuan/ton; The annual decline of nylon DTY market is 9.63%, with a price drop of 1820 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year; The annual decline in the nylon POY market is 10.81%, with a price drop of 1775 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year; The annual decline of nylon FDY market is 8.78%, with a price drop of 1725 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year.

Reasons for the significant decline in nylon yarn prices in 2024

The raw material caprolactam has experienced a significant decline

From the price fluctuation chart of the nylon industry chain, it can be seen that the cost has significantly decreased. The upstream raw material for nylon filament is caprolactam, and the price has been strongly correlated with the price of caprolactam for a long time. The upstream raw material caprolactam to some extent determines the price trend of the nylon filament market. In 2024, both prices will experience a weak and wide decline.

In 2024, the market will operate weakly throughout the year, with prices showing a significant downward trend overall. The price of caprolactam at the beginning of the year was 13842 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year it was 10903 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2939 yuan/ton or 21.23%.

The contradiction between supply and demand of nylon yarn intensifies in 2024

In 2024, most of the nylon filament market facilities will maintain high load operation and overcapacity.

In recent years, the production of nylon filament has remained stable and steadily increasing. In 2023, China’s nylon production reached 4.44 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.29%; The production of nylon filament in 2024 is 4.67 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.18%. In the past three years, the annual production of nylon filament in China has exceeded 4 million tons, accounting for about one-third of the global total production.

Demand for nylon filament decreases in 2024

The domestic consumption of nylon in 2024 is 3.92 million tons, a decrease of 3.25% compared to last year.

1. The demand in the first half of the year is better than that in the second half.

2. In the early stage of the Spring Festival, there was good demand in the terminal market, and downstream manufacturers were still proactive in stocking up before the holiday. Some nylon filament manufacturers had orders as high as April, and the demand side support was strong.

3. In the second quarter, downstream manufacturers maintained a high machine operating rate and had strong demand for raw materials. Although there have been no exceptionally popular models of nylon filament products in the market since the “Silver IV” event, the domestic market is mainly focused on rigid procurement, but foreign trade business has improved and overall market demand is strong.

4. With the end of the May Day holiday, the market is gradually transitioning to the off-season of demand, and downstream yarn factories are holding onto rigid demand orders. Despite the traditional peak season of “golden September and silver October”, the demand side has not shown significant improvement until the end of the year when downstream factories gradually enter the stage of order closure, and demand weakens again.

Prominent supply-demand contradiction

From the graph, it can be seen that in 2024, domestic nylon production will increase, consumption will decrease, and the production to sales ratio will increase. In recent years, the demand for nylon in China has maintained a relatively steady growth trend, with production significantly exceeding consumption. The apparent domestic consumption of nylon in 2024 is 3.92 million tons, a decrease of 3.25% compared to last year. One increase and one decrease have exacerbated the supply-demand contradiction, and overcapacity has become more apparent.

Factors influencing the nylon market in 2025

The supply-demand contradiction is difficult to change: In 2024, the supply of domestic nylon filament market will continue to exceed demand, and the production consumption gap will reach 750000 tons. The production capacity will continue to increase. Therefore, it is expected that the overall performance of the nylon filament market supply side will be prosperous in 2025. The domestic market demand is limited and seasonal, making it difficult to make significant improvements. In addition, there is a possibility of a continuous decrease in demand in the foreign market. Therefore, it is expected that the downstream demand for nylon filament market will decrease by 2025. The supply-demand contradiction will continue in 2025, and the situation is difficult to change in the short term.

The focus of raw materials will rise: the price of caprolactam, an upstream raw material for nylon, will drop by 21.23% annually in 2024, reaching a historical low. At the end of 2024, the price will be 10903 yuan/ton, with room for further increase. There are still many new production plans for the caprolactam market in 2025, among which the 600000 ton/year caprolactam new plant in Guangxi is expected to be completed and put into operation by 2025. In addition, there are still 300000 ton/year caprolactam plant production plans in Shandong, so the expected supply of caprolactam in the market is gradually increasing. The increase in production capacity and output has made it difficult for prices to rise to a certain extent. It is expected that caprolactam will steadily increase in 2025, and the annual average price will rise year-on-year. This will provide positive support for the price of nylon.

Prediction of Nylon Price Trend in 2025

The price of nylon filament in 2024 is at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and there is a possibility of upward recovery in the low price of nylon filament in 2025, but the market will still be mainly weak. Looking ahead to 2025, overall, the market for raw material caprolactam may have a higher focus, supported by favorable cost factors in the nylon filament market; There is an expectation of an increase in market supply, coupled with no obvious improvement in downstream market demand, making the supply-demand contradiction difficult to resolve.

Therefore, it is expected that the nylon filament market will continue to be weak in 2025, and prices will fluctuate with the rise and fall of raw materials. The overall market price will rise, with an expected increase of around 500-800 yuan/ton.

Review of Ethylene Glycol Market in 2024

The narrow range oscillation price of ethylene glycol will rise in 2024

The price of ethylene glycol will rise in 2024. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4688.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.84% compared to the average price of 4307.5 yuan/ton on January 1st. The spot market for ethylene glycol for the whole year of 2024 operates within the range of 4300-4800 yuan/ton, with an annual amplitude of 10.7%. Strong annual performance mainly relies on factors such as reduced overseas supply and lower port inventory.

Annual price comparison shows that the price of ethylene glycol has relatively increased compared to the low operating range in 2023, with the annual market average price rising from 4153 yuan/ton to 4578 yuan/ton; The annual price center of gravity has shifted upward. From the annual amplitude data, it can be seen that the annual price fluctuations in 2023 and 2024 have significantly narrowed compared to the previous period. The annual price operation of ethylene glycol in 2024 is characterized by narrow fluctuations and price increases.

The main logic of ethylene glycol price fluctuation trading in 2024

In 2024, ethylene glycol can be roughly divided into seven market bands, among which stage one (2023.12-2024.3) laid the main tone for the rise of the center of gravity of ethylene glycol prices. The main influencing factors in each stage are as follows:

Stage 1: The Red Sea attack at the beginning of the year affected the Middle East’s supply of goods and the maintenance of Saudi facilities, leading to a reduction in imports and an expected strengthening, which pushed up the price center of ethylene glycol;

Stage 2: Hidden inventory is high, port shipments are weak, and ethylene glycol prices continue to weaken in March and April;

Stage 3: The effect of reducing implicit inventory and imports begins to manifest in explicit inventory, coupled with the maintenance of domestic facilities, leading to a gradual strengthening of ethylene glycol prices;

Stage 4: After the price rises, domestic supply rebounds, while domestic demand shows downstream price for volume exchange. Downstream polyester prices decline, and the game between upstream and downstream intensifies. Downstream tolerance for high priced ethylene glycol weakens, leading to a sharp drop in ethylene glycol prices in September;

Stage 5: Macro sentiment during the National Day holiday, with ethylene glycol experiencing a significant rebound once again;

Stage 6: After the holiday, the sentiment weakened and rebounded again, but the decline was limited due to the impact of low inventory levels;

Stage 7: The clearance of port inventory is accelerating, and the expectation of weak imports is strengthening. The port inventory of ethylene glycol is gradually being cleared to a multi-year low, and the price of ethylene glycol is fluctuating upwards at the end of the year.

Basic supply and demand of ethylene glycol in 2024

Supply side: Domestic new production increase can be limited, while new production increase can be significant

The new production capacity of ethylene glycol in 2024 is not much. Excluding the 600000 tons of Xinjiang Zhongkun and 400000 tons of Shanxi Yuneng Group that were put into operation at the end of 2013, the new production capacity in 2024 will only be 300000 tons of ethylene glycol new production capacity of ChemChina. The total production capacity of ethylene glycol in 2024 is about 2860 tons, with a growth rate of only 0.3%.

The peak period for the expansion of domestic ethylene glycol production capacity is from 2020 to 2023, during which the domestic production capacity will increase rapidly by 4-5 million tons per year. The annual production capacity has increased from around 10.7 million tons in 2019 to around 28.5 million tons in 2023.

In 2024, there will be a significant increase in the absolute value of domestic ethylene glycol production, with a production increment of around 2.7 million tons. The ethylene glycol production in 2024 will be close to 19.5 million tons, an increase of 16.1% compared to around 16.8 million tons in 2023. During the peak period of capacity expansion (2020-2023), the average domestic production increment over the past four years is 2.925 million tons, and the production increment in 2024 will be 2.7 million tons, still in the peak period of production increment. Among them, the output growth rate of coal to ethylene glycol is greater than that of non coal to ethylene glycol.

Supply side: Domestic operating rate increases

There may not be much new production of ethylene glycol in 2024, but there will be a significant increase in production. The specific manifestation is that the growth rate of ethylene glycol production capacity tends to zero in 2024, while the growth rate of production remains relatively high. The main reason for this difference is the increase in the utilization rate of ethylene glycol production capacity in 2024, which is 68%, an increase of nearly 8% compared to 2023.

Supply side: Decreased overseas import volume

The import volume of ethylene glycol has been declining for five consecutive years. The total import volume of ethylene glycol in 2024 is about 6.55 million tons, a decrease of nearly 600000 tons compared to the same period last year, and a decrease of 4 million tons from the high point of 10.55 million tons in 2020. In 2024, the domestic dependence on ethylene glycol imports will continue to decline to around 25%, the lowest level in over a decade. The dependence on ethylene glycol imports has been declining from 73% in 2012. On the one hand, due to the squeezing of domestic production capacity, integrated oil production and some self owned coal mining enterprises have international competitive advantages in cost; On the other hand, it is also due to low prices, weak profits, frequent maintenance and unexpected failures of overseas facilities, as well as unstable situations and poor sea transportation.

From the perspective of import sources, the proportion of imports from countries such as the Middle East, the United States, and Canada has increased. The Middle East and North American sources of goods have cost advantages in raw materials, and high cost equipment in Asia’s near ocean regions is gradually being squeezed out of the Chinese market.

Supply side: The total supply of ethylene glycol will increase in 2024

In 2024, domestic production of ethylene glycol will increase, imports will decrease, and the total supply will exceed 26 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons compared to 2023.

Supply side forecast for 2025: high supply elasticity with added supply pressure

It is expected that the supply elasticity of ethylene glycol will be relatively high in 2025, and there will be new supply pressure. One of the main criteria is the increase in production capacity, which is an increase compared to 2024. In 2025, the plan is to add 1.6 million tons of ethylene glycol to production. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the total domestic production capacity of ethylene glycol will reach 30.23 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 6%.

In addition, the possibility of a rebound in overseas imports is one of the important factors contributing to supply elasticity. Affected by uncontrollable factors, imports from the Middle East and North America will decrease in 2024. For example, the transportation of ethylene glycol in the Middle East has become difficult due to the Red Sea attack, and Saudi Arabia has indeed reduced production due to economic reasons; In North America, exports to Asia have decreased due to the blockage of the Panama Canal and difficulties in local construction. Excluding the pressure of domestic production capacity on import demand, there is still potential for a rebound in imported goods from the Middle East and North America, which have cost advantages.

Demand side: The total demand for ethylene glycol will increase in 2024

The total demand for ethylene glycol is increasing year by year. The main downstream is polyester, accounting for over 90%. In 2024, polyester consumption of ethylene glycol was 24.9 million tons, an increase of 2.6 million tons compared to last year; Other fields (such as antifreeze) consume 1.7 million tons of ethylene glycol, totaling 26.6 million tons, with a demand growth rate of 12%

Overview of Major Downstream Polyester Fundamentals

In 2024, the production capacity and output of polyester, the main downstream product of ethylene glycol, will double increase, and the operating rate will remain high. The polyester production in 2024 is about 74.5 million tons, an increase of 7.9 million tons compared to 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.8%; In 2024, the total polyester production capacity will reach 85.4 million tons, with an additional 5.55 million tons of production capacity (excluding obsolete capacity), and a capacity growth rate of about 7%. The annual average operating rate of the national polyester industry in 2024 is around 86%, which is at a relatively high level in recent years.

Polyester exports will continue to grow in 2024, but the growth rate will slow down. In 2024, the import volume of polyester is expected to be 930000 tons, the export volume is expected to be 12.36 million tons, and the net export volume is expected to be 11.43 million tons, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year, with exports accounting for 15% of polyester production. In detail, among the categories of polyester export products, the growth rate of bottle flakes is relatively high, short fibers are neutral, and the export of long fibers has significantly slowed down. Among them, the cumulative export volume growth rate of bottle flakes and short fibers in 2024 exceeds 20%, maintaining a good growth momentum, while the export volume of polyester filament is expected to decline by 4.5% year-on-year.

Demand side: Ethylene glycol demand will continue to grow in 2025

The demand for ethylene glycol will continue to grow in 2025. In 2024, a total of 5.55 million tons of new polyester production capacity will be added (excluding obsolete production capacity). In 2025, there will still be new production capacity entering the polyester industry, with a production plan of 5.14 million tons. It is expected that the polyester production capacity will reach around 90.5 million tons by the end of 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 6%.

From the perspective of terminal demand, the domestic demand for textiles will be weak in 2024, with an increase in export quantity but a lower amount, mainly due to changes in consumption power caused by the shift in export destinations. In 2024, the market share of the European Union and ASEAN will gradually increase, while the export share of the United States will decrease. The trend of increasing quantity and decreasing price may continue with the arrival of the new US government in 2025, and it is expected that the quantity of textiles will maintain relative growth in 2025, but the magnitude will be limited.

Forecast of Ethylene Glycol Market in 2025

In 2025, the price of ethylene glycol will still be dominated by supply and demand. The main market game space lies in domestic supply variables and import quantity variables. Although the dependence on imports has significantly decreased and the influence of overseas factors on prices has decreased, based on the increase in domestic supply, the ethylene glycol market will play a game around the changes in production caused by port inventory and domestic manufacturer profits. The probability of a unilateral market trend caused by a single element decreases, and the probability of maintaining a narrow range oscillation since 2023 is higher. Overall, in 2025, the ethylene glycol supply side will have stronger new production capacity than in 2014, and there is room for improvement in operating rates after profit recovery. The expected growth rate of downstream polyester demand is expected to slow down, and there is great uncertainty in terminal demand. In 2025, the focus will be on centralized maintenance, the stage of domestic production with supply-demand mismatch, and the possibility of import recovery, which will bring market pressure due to the increase in port inventory.

It is expected that by 2025, the price of ethylene glycol will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range, with the overall price center slightly shifting upwards, and the price range being between 4600-5000 yuan/ton.