1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the price of soda ash was stable for the time being this week. From the beginning to the end of this month, the average market price in East China was 1752 yuan / ton, up 22.52% year on year. On May 5, the commodity index of light soda ash was 89.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.77% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 42.28% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business society, soda ash in East China has been operating steadily and dynamically, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1750-1850 yuan / ton. The main market price of light soda is about 1750-1850 yuan / ton. The main market price of light soda ash is about 1650-1750 yuan / ton. The domestic soda ash market is stable before the festival. The downstream glass mainly purchases soda ash on demand, and has resistance to high price soda ash. Generally speaking, today’s soda ash price continues to be adjusted. The total inventory of soda ash is large, but there is still uneven distribution. Recently, the overall start-up situation of manufacturers has not changed much, and most manufacturers are actively shipping.

Upstream and demand: upstream: the national raw salt market is mainly consolidated, and the market atmosphere is stable. Salt enterprises have sufficient inventory, and most of the downstream enterprises purchase on demand. It is expected that the short-term raw salt market will be stable for the time being. According to the monitoring of the downstream glass business agency, the price of glass rose this month. The average price of glass at the beginning of the month was 27.36 yuan / square meter, and the average price at the end of the month was 29.44 yuan / square meter. The price in this month rose by 7.6%. The price of petroleum coke in glass upstream rose; Soda prices were relatively stable, while LNG prices fell. Downstream in the real estate completion cycle, downstream traders and glass processing enterprises are more active in taking goods, and the order situation is acceptable. In the short term, there is no pressure on the inventory of the production enterprises, the glass market has good confidence, and the focus of transaction is relatively strong. However, the downstream glass is resistant to high price soda, and there is still a price game between the two sides.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in April 2021, there were 2 kinds of commodities rising, 2 kinds of commodities falling, and 1 kind of commodities with zero rise and fall in the price list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities rising were calcium carbide (8.33%) and PVC (3.17%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 6.85%) and caustic soda (- 6.63%). The average rise and fall this month was – 0.4%.

Business analysts believe that: upstream: the national raw salt market consolidation, the market atmosphere is stable. Salt enterprises have sufficient inventory, and most of the downstream enterprises purchase on demand. It is expected that the short-term raw salt market will be stable for the time being. The price of downstream glass is rising, but there is still resistance to high price soda. The wait-and-see mentality is strong, and most of them are purchased on demand. According to the comprehensive forecast, the short-term domestic soda price is dominated by the short-term consolidation operation, and the specific needs of the downstream market.

According to the monitoring of the business society, since 2021, the price of polysilicon has continued to rise, up nearly 50% as of April 30. At present, the mainstream quotation of polysilicon market is between 75000-95000 yuan / ton, and that of monocrystalline silicon has exceeded 140000 yuan / ton.

Tight supply and strong demand jointly prompted this wave of market. On the supply side, the operating rate of 11 polysilicon enterprises in production has been maintained at a high level. Throughout the first quarter and since April, the operating rate of polysilicon enterprises has been maintained at more than 90%. However, the domestic production still can not meet the demand. At the same time, the price of imported materials is rising, and the prices of OCI in South Korea and wacker in Germany also continue to rise. The root cause is that the downstream demand only increases but not decreases. Since 2021, the demand of downstream silicon wafer manufacturers is strong, especially since last year’s production expansion, which aggravates the tension of upstream silicon materials. After the price adjustment of number theory, silicon wafer manufacturers have greatly improved their tolerance for high price silicon materials, which also drives the price rise of the whole photovoltaic industry chain, and the cost is continuously transmitted to the downstream.

In the future, polysilicon analysts from the business community believe that there is still room for polysilicon prices to rise in the short term, and that in the medium and long term, the pace of price rise may slow down due to the bad effects of silicon material production expansion and new production capacity.

Near the end of the month, the overall trend of the three major PE spot varieties is still weak. Among them, the ex factory price of LDPE in East China is still declining, with a one-day drop of 0.45% on the 30th. The general trend of LLDPE and HDPE in East China is stable, but the market quotation has declined. Here are the details:

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8400.00 yuan / ton on April 25 and 8400.00 yuan / ton on April 30. The price of LLDPE (7042) was stable in the week, down 3.45% from April 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 11125.00 yuan / ton on April 25, and 11075.00 yuan / ton on April 30, with a decline of 0.45% during the period, 8.75% lower than that on April 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 9016.67 yuan / ton on April 25, and 9016.67 yuan / ton on April 30. The price was stable in the week, down 3.05% from March 1.

At the end of the month, the three major PE spot markets continued to be weak, of which LDPE market was the most obvious. The ex factory prices of petrochemical enterprises fell, while the ex factory prices of LLDPE and HDPE were mostly stable. With the arrival of the May Day holiday, upstream enterprises are actively de stocking. However, as the downstream agricultural film is in the off-season of demand, the terminal is cautious in taking goods, and most of them are replenished on demand. The overall market transaction atmosphere is weak, and the overall trend of spot is stable and falling.

Even plastic futures recently fell shock to the spot market to bring limited positive. On April 30, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2109 was 8170, the highest price was 8230, the lowest price was 8015, and the closing price was 8040. The former settlement price was 8170, the settlement price was 8100, down 130, or 1.59%. The trading volume was 485376, the position was 351689, and the daily increase was 8884（ Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

In terms of demand, the downstream agricultural film is still in the off-season, the market operating rate continues to fall, the pipe and packaging film are expected to grow slightly, and the downstream may enter the market for replenishment after the festival. Overall, the price of PE spot market is expected to rise slightly after the festival, but the range may be limited.

1、 Chart of the price trend of nitric acid Market

Price curve of nitric acid

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in China was 2300 yuan / ton on April 26, which was the same as last week.

2、 Market analysis

On April 26, Anhui Jinhe quoted 2300 yuan / ton, which was the same as the last one; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd., the price of concentrated nitric acid is 2200 yuan / ton, and that of dilute nitric acid is 960 yuan / ton, and the price of concentrated nitric acid is the same as that of the last time; Shandong helitai concentrated nitric acid quoted 2400 yuan / ton, the price was the same as the last time; Shaanxi Xinghua Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 2150 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, which is the same as the last one; Anhui Audley concentrated nitric acid quoted RMB 2250 / ton, which was the same as the last one. Shandong helitai nitric acid has no inventory, the market of nitric acid is better, and the high price of nitric acid is mainly operated. Near the weekend, the nitrate in some areas slowed down and prices were down.

Upstream liquid ammonia, last week (4.19-25), domestic liquid ammonia market market was slightly upward, according to the business agency monitoring liquid ammonia weekly increase of 1.39%. After some manufacturers and regions’ market hike last week, the market price changed little at the beginning of this week and the market returned to a stable level. The downstream aniline, cost side strength aniline price increased (202.4.19-4.25), April 18, Shandong price was 10200-10500 yuan / ton, Nanjing area aniline price 10500 yuan / ton, April 25, Shandong area price was 10600-10800 yuan / T, Nanjing area aniline price 11000 yuan / ton, average price rose 3.21% compared with last week.

3、 Post market forecast

The cost of nitric acid is supported by the cost of nitric acid, which business agency analysts expect to operate at high levels.

Trade name: nitrile rubber

Latest price (April 28): 21900 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of NBR was 21166 yuan / ton on the 28th, down 1.85% compared with the previous day. The price of raw butadiene is at a low level and the cost is weak. According to the business community, as of April 28, the price of butadiene was 6778 yuan / ton, down 8.59% from the beginning of April. In addition, the demand of downstream products industry is general, the inquiry of high price goods is rare, the offer of merchants is low, the supply of individual goods is tight, and the price of varieties is slightly firm. According to the business news agency, on the 28th, the domestic mainstream of Lanhua NBR n41 was 17700 yuan / ton, the mainstream of Lanhua NBR 3308 was 21800 yuan / ton, the mainstream of Nandi NBR 1052 was 24500-25000 yuan / ton, the mainstream of South Korea lg6250 was 18800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of Russia 3365 was 18000 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: weak demand of raw materials, nitrile rubber is expected to continue weak operation in the later period.

1、 Price trend

Mixed xylene prices continued to rise this week, according to data from the business agency’s bulk list. On April 18, the price of mixed xylene was 5770 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (April 25) was 5790 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton from last week, or 0.35%.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s mixed xylene price adjustment range is +50 / +150 (yuan / ton). Xylene inventories in East China port fell this week. The demand for gasoline has declined in stages, the other downstream news is weak, the market center of mixed xylene has fallen back and the price rise is weak. On the external market, as of April 23, the price of imported mixed xylene in South Korea was 763.5 USD / T, while that of April 16 was down 8.5 USD / T, or 1.1%.; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $781 / T, which was down by $5 / T, or 0.64% on April 16.

On the crude oil side, the crude oil this week maintained a range of shocks. Good: some of Libya’s oil fields are shut down and supply is reduced. Bad: India is the third largest oil importer in the world. The number of COVID-19 infected COVID-19 has skyrocketed, and some areas have implemented blockade measures, and the recovery of crude oil demand has been suppressed. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory has unexpectedly increased. Brent fell 0.345 US dollars / barrel this week, or 0.52 percent, on April 16; WTI fell $1.05/barrel, or 1.66 percent.

In the downstream and PX market, the factory price of p-xylene in China remained stable this week, with the price of 6400 yuan / ton, up 48.84% year on year. The overall operation of p-xylene plant in North China and East China is stable, with the site operating rate of more than 90%, the supply of goods in the site is normal, the goods are in good condition, about 50% in the northwest and over 50% in South China. The Asian region closed at $830-832 / T FOB Korea and $838-840 / T CFR China as of April 23.

PTA market, PTA prices in East China this week fell slightly, Friday (April 23) at 4566.36 yuan / ton, down 0.61% from last week, up 42.2% from the same period last year. Due to the compression of processing cost and poor profit, PTA device is still in the centralized maintenance period.

In the ox market, the ox price this week rose from last week, while on Friday, the price of ox in East China was 5900 yuan / ton, up 5.36% from last week, up 40.48% from the same period last year. The aromatics plant event of Yangzi Petrochemical Company pushed the o-xylene market of Sinopec up. The price of the external market of phthalate rose in shock, the cost level was temporarily stable, and the downstream market rose.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society think: on the supply cost side, opec+ production reduction implementation, the total number of us oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, the demand side, the impact of global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of industrial chain, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and America. Third, we will look at the geopolitical situation between the Middle East and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the dollar index and the stock market linkage.

Crude oil is expected to operate in a strong way, supporting the price of mixed xylene. The demand for gasoline was improved significantly before the festival, and there was still room for upward price, and the demand for mixed xylene increased, but the demand of the other downstream still remained unchanged. The follow-up was general and the increase of mixed xylene was restricted. In a comprehensive way, it is expected that mixed xylene will be in good price operation next week, and pay attention to the downstream purchase news before May 1st quarter. We will continue to pay attention to the trend of blending price of crude oil and gasoline, spring maintenance dynamics of mixed xylene plant, port inventory and downstream demand changes on the price of mixed xylene.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of caprolactam in China has risen recently. The average ex factory price of caprolactam was 13033 yuan / ton on April 19, and 13266 yuan / ton on April 25. The price rose by 1.79% this week.

2、 Market analysis

As of April 25, the price of caprolactam liquid in Nanjing Dongfang was 14300 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit was in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. Sinopec caprolactam liquid price is 13900 yuan / ton. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price 13900 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year, the normal operation of the device, acceptance delivery. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 13900 yuan / T. The 300000 t / a unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 12900 yuan / T, the production capacity of the factory is 300000 tons, and the plant is in normal production.

The price of raw material pure benzene rose continuously this week. As the price of pure benzene in Europe and the United States rose sharply, the price of pure benzene in Asia rose rapidly, the volume of imported pure benzene decreased, and the domestic market also followed suit. In addition, due to the tight supply of downstream styrene, the price continued to rise, supporting the price of pure benzene to a high level.

3、 Future forecast

Business community caprolactam analysts believe that at present, due to the raw material of pure benzene rose strongly, caprolactam rose. In some enterprises, the supply of equipment is reduced. It is expected that the cost will continue to rise in the short term, and it is more likely that caprolactam price will continue to rise when the cost is good.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the price of soda ash was stable for the time being this week. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average market price in East China was 1752 yuan / ton, down 11.66% year on year. On April 24, the commodity index of light soda ash was 89.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.77% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 42.28% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business club, soda ash in East China has been operating steadily and dynamically, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1700-1850 yuan / ton. The main market price of light soda is about 1750-1850 yuan / ton. The main market price of light soda is about 1650-1750 yuan / ton, and the price of downstream glass may play a leading role in soda. Generally speaking, the price of short-term soda is mainly consolidated. The total inventory of soda ash is large, but there is still uneven distribution. Some data show that the overall inventory of domestic soda ash is about 890000 tons, and now most of the orders are executed in the early stage.

Upstream and demand: upstream: the national raw salt market is mainly stable, and the market atmosphere is stable. Salt enterprises have sufficient inventory, and most of the downstream enterprises purchase on demand. It is expected that the short-term raw salt market will be stable for the time being. Glass prices in the lower reaches rose this week, and the overall market trading atmosphere was good. Upstream, the price of petroleum coke rose; Soda prices were relatively stable, while LNG prices fell. Downstream, in the real estate completion cycle, glass demand is good, domestic glass inventory fell to a new low in history. In the short term, the downstream support is fair, the glass market confidence is good, and the transaction focus is strong. It can support the price of soda, or stimulate the demand for soda. However, the downstream glass is now in a wait-and-see state for high price alkali, and its acceptance is not high. The buyer and the seller still play a price game.

According to the price monitoring of business association, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 16th week of 2021 (4.19-4.23), there are 2 kinds of commodities rising, 0 kinds of commodities falling and 3 kinds of commodities falling to 0. The main commodities rising were calcium carbide (2.87%) and PVC (0.28%); The average rise and fall this week was 0.63%.

Business analysts believe that: the glass market price rise or pull the demand for raw material soda, downstream glass price rise, good soda, soda price support, but there is still resistance to high price soda, wait-and-see mentality is strong, and more on-demand procurement. According to the comprehensive forecast, the domestic soda price is still stable in the short term, and it mainly depends on the downstream market demand.

This week (4.19-23), the domestic ethyl acetate Market was stable. After a sharp rise in early April, the market has returned to stability. According to the monitoring of business society, the East China production price of ethyl acetate was 9200-9500 yuan / ton, with a slight rise of 0.26% this week. At present, the price is still high, mainly due to the continuous rise of upstream acetic acid and the support of cost. However, the downstream procurement is rational, To suppress the market power of ethyl acetate.

First of all, the upstream acetic acid market, according to business monitoring, this week (4.19-23) acetic acid still continued to rise, or 2.59%. The operation rate of acetic acid is stable, and there is no big change compared with the previous week. Henan Shunda plant is still shut down, the production of acetic acid is controllable, and the market supply is still tight. The market prices in East China, South China and North China all rose to varying degrees.

From the perspective of supply and demand of ethyl acetate, the quotation of enterprises stabilized this week, the operation rate of the plant remained high, the normal shipment of large factories was the main reason, and the supply side was relatively loose, which was also the fundamental reason for the lack of power for the price rise of ethyl acetate. However, due to the high cost of acetic acid, the profit of ethyl acetate enterprises was under great pressure, and the price was firm. On the demand side, after a round of price hike, the lower reaches showed rational and certain resistance to the high price of ethyl acetate, and the number of families was affected to a certain extent.

In the future, the ethyl acetate analysts of the business community believe that the short-term upward pressure of ethyl acetate is greater, which is mainly restricted by the demand. However, due to the high cost, in order to ensure profits, the price of ethyl acetate enterprises may continue to remain firm, and it is difficult to rise or fall.

After the recent domestic asphalt market market rose, according to the monitoring data of the business society, as of April 22, the average spot price of domestic asphalt was 3150 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the previous day’s average price, with the price falling 0.21% on a month-on-year basis, up 39.84% year on year. Today, the price of domestic asphalt futures fell by -2.53%, while the demand for asphalt downstream is still weak, and the domestic spot asphalt market still maintains consolidation shock in the short term.

International crude oil fell, supply and demand were slightly weak, and asphalt futures market was weak. At present, the domestic asphalt spot market is mainly collated after rising, and the overall situation of asphalt market is stable today. The overall delivery of refineries is relatively stable, affected by crude oil and futures, traders are more cautious to watch, and the actual transaction of asphalt market is general.

In the future, there are many rainy days in China recently, which hinder the terminal construction. Asphalt analysts of business society expect that the spot market of asphalt will be stabilized in the future.