1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of baking soda is rising. On September 25, the commodity index of baking soda was 178.76, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 102.52% from the lowest point of 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda is strong, and the price continues to rise. First, due to the dual control policy, the price of raw soda increases and the supply decreases. Second, in the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food has improved recently. Generally speaking, the price of baking soda is running better in the short term, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

1、 Price trend

On the 24th, the propylene market in Shandong remained stable at a high level, and individual enterprises adjusted slightly. The propylene price in Shandong was 8000-8050 yuan / ton, and the propylene price is expected to reach a high point again. Combined with the market situation, it is mainly affected by two factors.

One. Crude oil prices have been showing a strong trend of shock. As of the closing on September 23, WTI rose 1.07 to USD 73.3/barrel in November, or 1.5%, and Brent rose 1.06 to USD 77.25/barrel in November, or 1.4%. Sc2111 rose 5.4 yuan / barrel to 477 yuan / barrel, and the cost side supported the price of propylene. Second, the downstream demand was good, and the downstream octanol, n-butanol, propylene oxide, acrylic acid and other products performed well. The demand support further boosted the price of propylene.

According to the monitoring data of business society, after the Mid Autumn Festival, the hydrogen peroxide Market heated up and the price rose one after another. On the 23rd, the hydrogen peroxide market quoted 846 yuan / ton, with the price rising by 1.2% compared with that before the festival.

Supported by the stock market on the national day, the hydrogen peroxide market has risen one after another. The quotation in Hebei is 850 yuan / ton, the price is increased by 20 yuan / ton, and the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Luxi Chemical is 780 yuan / ton, which remains stable. Before the eleventh Festival, the hydrogen peroxide Market is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall.

Prices in East and South China rose today, flattening the spread. The “double control” is tightening. Oak Jinyan stops, LianHong Far East reduces the negative, the market is hard to find, the price of ethylene oxide tends to rise, and the price of downstream monomers also jumps. At present, the manufacturer’s ex factory quotation has exceeded 10000 yuan, and the market transaction price is uneven, ranging from 9600-10000 yuan / ton as a whole. The ex factory price of Sanjiang AEO-9 water purification has also risen by 300 yuan / ton to 11500 yuan / ton. Under the influence of the policy, the market has full support power, and the EO price is stable and the upward trend is obvious.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of toluene stabilized after rising continuously this week. On September 10, the price of toluene was 5580.2 yuan / ton; On Friday (September 17), the price was 5660 yuan / ton, up 1.43% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 62.64%.

2、 Analysis and review

This week, the toluene market was driven by the sharp rise in the prices of refined oil and related aromatic products. Before the Mid Autumn Festival, a small amount of storage was replenished in the downstream, and the trading volume of toluene market increased. However, the downstream demand follow-up was limited, the overall market demand changed little, and toluene stabilized after rising.

In the external market, driven by the rise in oil prices, the price of toluene in Asia rose this week. As of September 17, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $789 / T, up US $36 / T or 4.78% month on month from September 10.

In terms of crude oil, hurricane IDA has a great impact on U.S. oil and gas production, and the recovery of oil and gas production is slow. In addition, U.S. crude oil inventory and refined oil inventory have decreased, and the international oil price has shown an overall upward trend this week. On September 10, Brent rose $2.42 / barrel, or 3.32%; WTI rose $2.25/barrel, or 3.23%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell this week. The price of domestic goods was 14266.67 yuan / ton, down 1.15% from last week and 20% from the same period last year. The domestic TDI market is waiting to be sorted out, the on-site trading atmosphere is light, the downstream demand has not increased, the equipment of many domestic TDI factories is overhauled, and the supplier has no inventory pressure for the time being. However, the downstream transaction of the terminal is not smooth, the downstream follows up rationally, just needs to buy, and the operator’s mentality is mainly waiting to see.

In terms of PX market, in terms of PX market, the trend of domestic PX was temporarily stable this week, with the price of 7100 yuan / ton, an increase of 54.35% over the same period last year. As of September 17, the closing prices in Asia were USD 894-896 / T FOB Korea and USD 912-914 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, with the recovery of oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, the oil price may fall. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

Under the “double control” policy, the downstream operating rate of toluene is affected, and the demand for toluene may weaken again. Overall, the weak situation of toluene is difficult to change, and the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. Pay attention to the operating rate and demand of downstream units, as well as the impact of crude oil and external market trend on toluene price.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the market price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable. As of the 16th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 7075 yuan / ton. The spot supply on the site was normal and the sales situation was general.

The recent market price trend of phthalic anhydride is mainly stable, the delivery situation of phthalic anhydride market is normal, the recent downstream demand changes little, the price trend of upstream orthobenzene rises, the plasticizer market fluctuates and decreases, and the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride is stable. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers remained at a low level, and the operation rate of phthalic anhydride on the site was about 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride was normal, the market price trend rose, the downstream plasticizer industry market was general, and the actual transaction was normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is temporarily stable, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 6900-7100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 6700-6800 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 7000-7200 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand. The recent plasticizer market is poor. It is expected that the market price trend of phthalic anhydride will be stable in the later stage.

Trade name: styrene butadiene rubber 1502

Latest price (September 15): 12525 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber price was 12525 yuan / ton on the 15th, down 0.46% from the previous day. On the 15th, the main suppliers of styrene butadiene rubber lowered the ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber by 400 yuan / ton. Market traders mainly waited and saw, some closed offers were not reported, and some offers were slightly adjusted. Affected by the price adjustment of suppliers, the market transaction was light. According to the business agency, the price of emulsion polymerized styrene butadiene rubber of CNPC Northeast sales company has been reduced by 400 yuan / ton. At present, Jihua 1502 has reported 12100 yuan / ton, and the Northeast warehouse has raised the price; Fushun 1502 reported 12100 yuan / ton, and the Northeast warehouse raised the price.

Future forecast: some early maintenance enterprises are gradually restarted, the market supply pressure increases, and the prices of natural rubber and raw butadiene are low. Overall, the impact on SBR is more than empty, and it is expected that SBR will continue to be weak in the short term.

Aluminum prices fell 2.25% on the day and rose 8.22% in the month

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on September 14 was 22900 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.25% compared with the average market price of 23426.67 yuan / ton on September 13; Compared with the average market price of 21160 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (9.1), an increase of 8.22%.

Taking the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) as the benchmark price, it has increased by 45.61%.

Market summary

On Monday, the spot aluminum price soared and the downstream undertaking was weak. Today, the spot price is under pressure to adjust the shipment. At present, it has dropped to the price level below 23000 yuan / ton, which is still at a relatively high level in history. On the whole, the fundamentals have not changed, the supply is limited, the inventory is low, and the market currency source is tight; On the demand side, the main consumption is real estate and transportation industry, accounting for 50-55%. At present, the demand for aluminum in real estate is at the peak of completion. In addition, the output of new energy vehicles is at a record high, and the overall demand for aluminum has increased; On the cost side, the price of upstream raw material alumina increased and the preferential electricity price policy was cancelled, and the production cost per ton of aluminum was strongly supported; It is expected to maintain the trend of high-level and volatile operation in the near future. In the later stage, it will focus on the rapid rise of aluminum price in the near future, the downstream undertaking strength and the supervision and price stabilization strength of relevant departments.

Commodity index: on September 12, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 90.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.31% from the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (2019-05-08), and up 9.46% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the data of business society, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China from September 6 to 12 was 14850 yuan / ton, and the weekly market remained stable.

Upstream raw materials:

Acrylic acid is one of the raw materials used in the production of anionic and non-ionic polyacrylamide. According to the data monitoring of business agency (100ppi. Com), the mainstream quotation of acrylic acid in the market on the 6th (Monday) was 14433.33 yuan / ton and 14633.33 yuan / ton on the 12th (Sunday), with a weekly increase of 1.39%.

The price of acrylonitrile, another main raw material of polyacrylamide, has been stable recently, and the weekly main quotation continues to be about 14900 yuan / ton, which has a stable impact on polyacrylamide this week.

LNG is used in the production process. Last week, the domestic mainstream price of LNG continued to decline. On September 6, the average price of domestic LNG was 5926.67 yuan / ton, and on September 12, the mainstream price was 5783.33 yuan / ton, with a weekly adjustment range of – 2.42%. The overall demand is weakened, the terminal gas is insufficient, and the liquid plant reduces the price and discharges the warehouse for good, but the high price transaction is not smooth, and there are still downward expectations. However, the cost is high and the supporting force is still, so the downward range is not large. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will operate weakly and stably in the short term.

Downstream demand: at present, the epidemic situation in the water treatment industry and the price of raw materials have changed slightly, and the demand adjustment range is not large. The downstream purchase price is normal, and the demand tends to be stable.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, the “golden nine silver ten” has not substantially promoted the market at present, and it is more likely that the future market will be dominated by stability.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of September 10, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was 9300 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on September 6, 2021 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 8600 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1000 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.04%. Compared with September 1 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 8900 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 400 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.49%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that the overall increase of domestic dimethyl carbonate market this week is obvious, and the overall increase in the week has exceeded 8%. The sharp rise of dimethyl carbonate market is supported by both supply and demand. On the supply side, the dimethyl carbonate market fell last week, and the low-end price transaction improved. This week, the overall inventory of dimethyl carbonate was low and the supply side was tight. In terms of demand, this week, electrolyte and solvent factories took goods intensively, the demand for dimethyl carbonate increased, the inventory continued to decrease, the quotation of dimethyl carbonate factories continued to rise, and the sentiment of supporting the price and reluctant to sell was high. As of September 10 at the weekend, the ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was reference 9000-9500 yuan / ton, which was 500-1000 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of this week, The biggest increase in a factory in Shandong was 1200 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, at present, the average ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate is 9300 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 8% this week.

In terms of raw material propylene oxide, the propylene oxide Market in Shandong showed a steady upward trend this week. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of September 10, the average production price of propylene oxide in Shandong was 16466 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of this week, the average price increased by 333 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.07% during the week, and 433 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.70% compared with the beginning of this month

In terms of upstream dimethyl ether, in the second week of September, due to the favorable cost of methanol, the dimethyl ether market ushered in a sharp rise. After experiencing a tepid market for more than a month, the dimethyl ether market finally ushered in a sharp rise in the second week of September. The dimethyl ether Market in Henan increased by nearly 4% during the week, and the quotations of most manufacturers in Henan, the main production area, rose to above 3700 yuan / ton. There were many positive factors in the market this week, which supported the continuous rise of dimethyl ether prices. First, the methanol market rose sharply, and the rise of raw material market brought strong support to dimethyl ether. Followed by the liquefied gas market, civil gas continued to rise during the week, and the price difference between gas and ether gradually opened, which was good for the market mentality. The downstream market entry is more positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the mentality is strong, and the price is pushed up one after another. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3562.50 yuan / ton on September 1 and 3681.25 yuan / ton on September 9, with an increase of 3.92% during the week and 4.80% compared with August 1.

Future trend analysis

This week, the market of dimethyl carbonate has returned to a high level. After the downstream centralized collection of goods, the demand at high prices may gradually return to stability. In addition, it is heard that dimethyl carbonate from large factories in Shandong will be shipped one after another next week. With the increase of on-site supply, the high road of dimethyl carbonate may be shaken. Dimethyl carbonate analysts of business society believe that the domestic price of dimethyl carbonate may be reduced by a narrow margin in the short term, Specifically, we should pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.