1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, on the 17th, the average spot market price of nickel was 140541.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous day and a year-on-year decrease of 27.56%.

The rise of the US dollar put pressure on bulls to stop earnings and leave the market, with Lunni closing down 2.52% overnight. Several officials from the Federal Reserve have made hawkish remarks, stating that the US dollar has started a new round of rebound, the overall commodity market is under pressure and falling, and external metals are operating in a weak position. Fundamentally, Indonesia has increased production capacity for intermediate products and nickel plates, and domestic electrolytic nickel production capacity is constantly being released. Surplus expectations are gradually being fulfilled. The situation of nickel oversupply has not been improved, downstream demand for nickel sulfate is sluggish, steel mills are shutting down for maintenance, and nickel price fundamentals are still under pressure. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will remain weak and volatile.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province has significantly decreased this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong Province decreased from 12120.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11280.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 6.93%, and the weekend price increased by 18.32% year-on-year. On November 6th, the isooctanol commodity index was 82.06, a decrease of 0.88 points from yesterday, a decrease of 40.32% from the highest point of 137.50 points in the cycle (2021-08-08), and an increase of 133.46% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support increases, downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7100.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6958.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.01%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.60% at the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP market price has slightly decreased this week. The price of DOP decreased from 11275.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11191.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.74%, and the weekend price increased by 8.45% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened.

Future prospects

In mid November, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream propylene market has an upward trend at the end of the month, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly declined, and downstream demand is average. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Product name: Hydrochloric acid

Latest price (November 6th): 157.50 yuan/ton

On November 6th, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price slightly decreased, with a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to November 3rd, a decrease of 3.08%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.63%. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market is consolidating at a low level, and downstream purchasing willingness is average. The hydrochloric acid market is affected by the drop in liquid chlorine prices, resulting in a decrease in the market price.

In the future, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price may fluctuate and fall, with an average market price of around 150 yuan/ton.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of November 3, 2023, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 14660 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1 (organic silicon DMC reference 14780 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81%.

Entering November, the overall weak and narrow decline in the silicone DMC market. The quotation of Shandong Dachang Organosilicon DMC is based on 14700 yuan/ton, but the actual transaction price has been adjusted to 14500 yuan/ton. The leading Dachang Organosilicon DMC prices in Zhejiang remain stable at around 14500-14700 yuan/ton, while in North China, the price of Organosilicon DMC is based on 14700 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton. An industry insider stated that there are currently small factories in Shandong province with a price reference of around 14300 yuan/ton for organic silicon DMC.

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for organic silicon DMC is generally limited, and downstream customers have a general mood for stocking and restocking. Some downstream customers have received pre orders one after another, and their overall purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. In addition, the implementation of new orders at the terminal is slow, and the willingness of organic silicon DMC to directly purchase downstream is not strong. Therefore, the current market support for organic silicon DMC in terms of demand is average.

On the supply side: Currently, there has been little change in supply news. Due to downstream demand constraints, the pace of shipments in some regions has slowed down. However, in the early low stage of the market, some factories have received orders well, and the overall supply pressure is still not high. Therefore, overall, the current market situation of organic silicon DMC is mostly influenced by the demand side.

In terms of cost: Currently, entering November, there has been a slight decline in the upstream raw material metal silicon market, and the weak raw material market has provided average cost support for organic silicon DMC.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is average. Although there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream and overall demand support is average, there has been no significant fluctuation in the market prices of leading large factories. Therefore, the overall market price adjustment space is limited. According to the organic silicon DMC data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market mainly adjusts and operates in small intervals, and more attention is paid to the changes in supply and demand news.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic PC market in October fell and leveled off, with spot prices of various brands generally decreasing. As of October 31, the mixed benchmark price of Shangshang Society PC was around 16466.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.95% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above figure, it can be seen that the domestic bisphenol A market has accelerated its decline after the holiday. In early October, international crude oil experienced a significant decline, followed by weak fluctuations due to loose supply expectations. The market for phenol and acetone, the raw materials for bisphenol A, was not ideal. Insufficient upstream support, coupled with the restart of the Yanhua Polycarbon Bisphenol A plant within the month, has led to an increase in industry operating rates and increased supply-demand conflicts. Overall, there is poor support for PC cost side.

On the supply side, the overall operating rate of domestic PCs rose in October and then fell, with the industry load increasing from around 68% at the beginning of the month to about 72%. At the end of the month, the industry’s load returned to 66%, and some devices originally scheduled for maintenance in October were delayed. The overall supply of goods on site was abundant, and the smoothness of enterprise shipments was poor. The factory price fell, providing moderate support for spot prices.

In terms of demand: In the early stage, there were many stocking operations during the traditional consumption peak season of the “Jinjiu” PC. As October entered, the enthusiasm of terminal enterprises to pick up goods decreased, and there was still raw material inventory to digest, resulting in poor demand for on-site stocking. The starting position of the superimposed terminal enterprises is not high, and the concern of the industry towards the market has increased. In October, the demand side has poor support for spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

The PC market stabilized after a decline in October. The upstream bisphenol A market is weak, weakening support for PC costs. Domestic polymerization plants operate with fluctuating loads, and the market has ample spot supply. Traders have a weak mentality and tend to offer at a discount. Downstream enterprises are chasing gains and selling, with poor enthusiasm for receiving goods. In November, there are plans for large-scale equipment maintenance, and it is expected that the PC market will be supported by it in the short term, leading to a stronger decline.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol first fell and then rose in October. The average price of the mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol in China first fell from 10450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10325.00 yuan/ton on October 17th, a decrease of 1.20%, and then rose to 10600.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.66%. The price at the end of the month increased by 5.30% year-on-year. On October 30th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 51.08, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 50.70% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 18.65% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream distributors of neopentyl glycol have fluctuated this month.

From a cost perspective, the market price of isobutyraldehyde significantly decreased in October. The market price of isobutyraldehyde decreased from 9000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8233.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.52%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 24.75% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have significantly declined, and due to the impact of supply and demand, the support for the price of new pentanediol has weakened.

Looking at the future market, the overall trend of the new pentanediol market in mid to early November may fluctuate slightly and decline mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has significantly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6066.67 yuan/ton. In October, the market price of white carbon black remained stable and weak, with a decrease of 2.15%. The overall price fluctuation range was limited, and manufacturers offered to take orders. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the focus of negotiations is stable.

In October, the stable operation of white carbon black market prices was the main focus, with mainstream prices around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations was stable, and the overall market supply and demand was balanced, with little price fluctuations. Downstream procurement was mainly for immediate needs, and the enthusiasm for stocking was average. Manufacturers mainly offered to take advantage of profits, but the number of new orders was limited.

Chemical Index: On October 29, the chemical index stood at 888 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 36.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 48.49% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that in the short term, the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main factor, and the range of price fluctuations is limited.

This week (10.23-27), the domestic polycrystalline silicon market experienced a significant decline, with a significant drop in domestic supply prices and a certain degree of decline in imported supply. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon experienced a weekly decline of 8.71%. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first grade solar energy has slipped to 70000-75000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the devices affected by the accident in the early stage have now resumed operation, and the newly added production capacity has been gradually released, achieving mass production. The domestic supply has significantly increased, and the shipping speed has slowed down, causing silicon material manufacturers to accumulate inventory. The weakened bargaining power has forced silicon material manufacturers to lower prices for shipment.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, the operating load of silicon wafer enterprises has decreased, mainly due to the backlog of inventory from manufacturers in the early stage, coupled with a slowdown in downstream procurement. The inventory level of silicon wafers continues to operate at a high level, and the crystal pulling end can only lower its own operating rate to alleviate the oversupply situation. The M10 monocrystalline silicon chip has experienced a significant decline, with a weekly drop of 0.3 yuan, a drop of over 10%, and the mainstream transaction price dropping to 2.40 yuan per chip; The quotation for G12 single crystal silicon chip has dropped by 0.2 yuan, and the current mainstream transaction price is 3.40 yuan per chip.

From the perspective of the terminal demand side, the prices of battery cells and components have been inverted, with a significant drop in battery cell prices, with a weekly drop of over 10%. The average price of single crystal M10 battery cells has dropped to 0.51 yuan, and G12 battery cells have dropped to 0.53 yuan. Although the domestic installation rate is basically stable, external orders have decreased and overall terminal demand has slowed down.

Future forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that the recent increase in demand in the silicon material market is insufficient, and it is necessary to continue to follow up. Coupled with expectations of increased supply, prices will continue to loosen and decline in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has been stable recently. This week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5225.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.42% month on month and 3.83% year-on-year.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market has slightly increased. Currently, there is a possibility of a large downstream MTO device being put into operation, and the demand is good. In addition, macroeconomic benefits have also played a certain driving role. At the same time, port inventory has been significantly reduced, and the methanol market is gradually improving.

Recently, the methanol market has slightly increased, with good cost support. Downstream purchases remain in demand, while polyformaldehyde manufacturers maintain normal shipments. Polyformaldehyde analysts from the business community predict that prices may increase slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 24th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises in China was 203000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.40% compared to last Wednesday (October 18th).

Recently, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market has shown stable and weak performance. Recently, the price of upstream spodumene concentrate has dropped, and upstream lithium carbonate has temporarily stabilized operation. Cost support has weakened, with low supply side construction and mainly delivering more orders. Terminal demand has not met expectations, and demand side support is weak. The mentality of the industry is average, and it is mainly for immediate follow-up. The company’s quotation is stable but has declined.

Upstream lithium carbonate: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on October 23, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 167600.00, an increase of 4.1% compared to October 1 (161000.00).

Lithium hydroxide analysts from Business Society believe that current cost support is limited, while demand support is still insufficient. The market atmosphere is light, and it is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may be weak and stable, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.