According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has slightly declined this week. As of the 23rd, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11116.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% compared to the price of 11183.33 yuan/ton on the 17th, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.91%.

Supply side: The domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined this week, with the mainstream price discussed in various regions of the country ranging from 11100 to 11500 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices have been shut down for sale, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation for hydrofluoric acid from manufacturers is normal, with anhydrous hydrofluoric acid starting at around 60%. Some manufacturers have inventory backlog, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly decreased.

Cost side: The price trend of domestic fluorite is stable. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3700 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of the week’s price of 3700 yuan/ton. The current situation of the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is the tension in upstream mining, with some areas experiencing mining accidents. Fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are undergoing safety hazard inspections, The difficulty of starting a fluorite mine has increased. With the decrease of temperature and the increase of rain and snow weather in the northern region, fluorite production is limited. However, there has been strong resistance towards high priced fluorite in the downstream recently, and the procurement situation is average. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is low.

This week, the price trend of sulfuric acid market is temporarily stable. As of the 23rd, the average price of domestic sulfuric acid is 298 yuan/ton. The upstream sulfur market of sulfuric acid is on the rise, and there is a certain increase in costs. Downstream customers of sulfuric acid have a general enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid, and the price trend of sulfuric acid has remained stable this week. However, the decline in the domestic hydrofluoric acid market is not significant due to this impact.

On the demand side: The market trend of refrigerant products downstream of the terminal is temporarily stable, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. The procurement of raw materials is not active, and the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high. Downstream procurement just needs to follow up, and some enterprises’ quotas are digested in advance. The monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small, and the price trend of R22 is mainly declining. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, but the actual high-end offers have fallen, and the purchasing atmosphere has cooled. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 26000-28000 yuan/ton. The demand in the refrigerant industry during the off-season is insufficient, and transactions are relatively flat. The refrigerant industry has maintained a sluggish start, and demand is poor, making it difficult for the hydrofluoric acid market to improve.

Future forecast: The market trend of upstream raw material fluorite is stable in the near future, and the price of sulfuric acid may rise; The market operating rate of the downstream refrigerant industry remains at a low level, and there is a lack of enthusiasm for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. In the short term, hydrofluoric acid prices remain low and volatile.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mixed xylene market weakened this week (11.13-11.21). On November 21st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.79% from last Monday’s 7250 yuan/ton.

Asia US Arbitrage Space Narrows, Xylene External Market Price Decreases

Since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the Asia US interest rate gap has severely shrunk, and the prices of toluene in Asia have stabilized at low levels. As of November 21, the prices of isomeric grade xylene in Asia were between $873 and $874 per ton.

Port inventory increases, xylene supply pressure increases

The inventory of mixed xylene ports has increased compared to the previous period, putting pressure on the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of November 16th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China was 26000 tons, a significant increase from 19500 tons in mid November.

Low international crude oil price consolidation, weak cost support for xylene

This week (11.13-11.21), international crude oil prices have generally stabilized at a low level, with weak support for xylene costs. As of November 21, the WTI01 contract closed at $77.81 per barrel, with a settlement of 77.77 yuan per barrel; The Brent 01 contract closed at $82.51 per barrel and settled at $82.48 per barrel.

PX starts to stabilize xylene and obtain just needed support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, there has been little change in spot supply during the maintenance of some xylene units. Recently, the trend of international crude oil prices has declined, and PX external prices have been affected by this. As of the 16th, the closing prices in Asia were 997 999 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1022 1024 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Weak market for phthalic anhydride, weak demand support for xylene

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride units is stable, with normal shipments of ortho phthalic anhydride starting from Tongling, Anhui. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride unit of Xinyang Group is operating stably, and Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride is operating normally. Currently, the operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride is maintaining over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has fallen, which has correspondingly impacted the ortho phthalic anhydride market. Recently, downstream procurement has not been active, Some manufacturers of phthalic anhydride have lowered their factory prices, resulting in a sluggish market for phthalic anhydride.

Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for xylene demand

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a low season, and downstream inquiries have been light. The demand for xylene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of November 16th, around 70% of refineries nationwide have started operating; The gasoline production of independent refineries has slightly decreased by 3000 tons compared to the previous period.

Future forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices have been consolidating at a low level in the near future, and the cost of xylene is at a low level; Downstream mixing and other industries have weak demand, coupled with a slight increase in xylene port inventory, and it is expected that the xylene market will experience a weak consolidation in the short term

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China was 2900.00 yuan/ton, and the weekend price fell by 21.27% year-on-year. On November 19, the calcium carbide commodity index was 75.98, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 64.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 36.93% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

The upstream blue charcoal market has stabilized at a low level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly declined. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal intermediate was around 1230-1300 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in price and weakened cost support. The PVC market price slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5856.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5832.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.41%. Weekend prices fell by 3.17% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide has weakened. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In late November, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, downstream demand has weakened, and the price of raw material blue charcoal has slightly decreased, resulting in insufficient cost support. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in late November, with consolidation being the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1186.67 yuan/ton, while at the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1183.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28%. The current price has decreased by 12.35% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and declined. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past two months, with a decline this week. As of November 17th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1100-1260 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and consolidated, with average cost support. Formaldehyde manufacturers actively shipped, but the market trading atmosphere was relatively cold and the market declined.

Upstream methanol situation: In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support the operation of coal prices at high levels; In terms of demand, the overall pressure on inventory in power plants is relatively low. Currently, the terminal mainly relies on long-term replenishment and replenishment according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is biased towards wait-and-see. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors. Downstream demand is expected to increase, but fundamental contradictions are still not significant. The domestic methanol market is mainly fluctuating and consolidating.

The recent weak consolidation of methanol market, poor cost support, and high pressure on formaldehyde inventory are likely to follow the trend. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 16th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3400 yuan/ton, which was unchanged compared to Monday’s price and increased by 25.15% compared to the same period last year.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been operating steadily, with holders shipping according to the market. On November 16th, the quotation range for industrial grade 85% formic acid was between 3100-3500 yuan/ton. Recently, the upstream sulfuric acid market prices have been operating steadily, while the upstream methanol market has experienced slight fluctuations. The cost side changes have little impact on the formic acid market. Enterprises mainly ship goods, while downstream inquiries and procurement remain in demand. The overall market trading changes are limited.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that currently, the upstream sulfuric acid price is temporarily stable, while the upstream methanol is operating in a narrow range with limited cost impact. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, rubber, leather, and pesticides are mainly in need of procurement, and the market atmosphere is average. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may stabilize and operate in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of November 15th, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 7433.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% compared to the same period last week, with a narrow range and weak operation. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, with manufacturers mainly selling out profits and taking orders.

The market price of cyclohexane has slightly declined, with the mainstream price around 7433.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% compared to the same period last week. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains around 7500 yuan/ton, and downstream procurement is on demand, with weak willingness to stock, average demand, and weak upstream support.

Chemical Index: On November 14th, the chemical index stood at 862 points, an increase of 1 point compared to yesterday, a decrease of 38.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the stable operation of the cyclohexane market is the main trend, with a narrow range and weak operation.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of November 14th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14566.67 yuan/ton. This week, the price of PMMA showed a narrow and weak trend, and compared to the same period last week, the price remained stable. Downstream demand procurement was the main focus of negotiations, and the focus of negotiations was stable.

This week, the general transparent grade premium product PMMA in China has shown a stable and weak trend. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable, the purchasing atmosphere is average, and downstream demand is insufficient. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. The factory has given up on profits and taken orders, and the cost support is weak. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the willingness to hoard goods is not obvious.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On November 13, the rubber and plastic index was 675 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 36.32% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 27.84% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, PMMA will remain weak and stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from November 3 to November 10, 2023, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China decreased from 7800 yuan/ton last week to 7700 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 1.28%.

In terms of crude oil: As of November 3rd, international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $80.51 per barrel, a decrease of $1.95 or 2.4%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 84.89 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.96 US dollars or 2.3%. The supply tension caused by the situation in the Middle East has eased.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene continued to be 7750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7603 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On November 6th, the price of pure benzene was 7903 yuan/ton, and on Friday (November 10th), the price of pure benzene was 7800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.51% from last week and an increase of 12.23% from the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the crude oil and styrene market both weakened during the week, driving the overall weakness of the pure benzene industry chain. The pure benzene market continued to decline during the week, and the hydrogenated benzene market also fell significantly. The auction price of crude benzene also declined overall during the week, and the downstream pressure on prices was generally strong, resulting in a weak overall trend in the industrial chain.

This week, the pure benzene market continued to decline, with Sinopec lowering its listing price twice to 77500 yuan/ton, and a cumulative decrease of 3000 yuan/ton during the week. The hydrogenation benzene market has followed a significant decline, with a current execution rate of 7600-7700 yuan/ton in East China, and a decrease of 300-400 yuan/ton within the week. In terms of supply and demand, some hydrogenation benzene enterprises that underwent preliminary maintenance began to operate one after another during the week, and the overall operation rate of hydrogenation benzene increased, with on-site supply showing a slight looseness. In terms of demand, the market expects that there will be limited overall changes in downstream operating rates in the future, and there will still be immediate demand. Overall, the pure benzene market is still under pressure due to high inventory and loose supply, and the weak trend of crude oil has limited impact on the industry chain. It is expected that the overall industry chain will still be under pressure in the future, and there may be further downward space. In the future, the focus will be on inventory situation and crude oil trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from November 3rd to 10th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China dropped from 9450 yuan/ton to 9325 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.91% during the cycle. The price fell 6.68% month on month and 3.79% year-on-year. The spot price of raw material pure benzene has fallen, and Sinopec has lowered its listing twice to 7750 yuan/ton, lacking cost support. The downstream chemical fiber and solvent market demand is average, and more purchases are made on demand. Some production enterprises have restarted their installations, with an expected increase in spot supply, weak fundamentals of cyclohexanone, and a decrease in transaction focus.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: Crude oil futures have experienced a significant decline, coupled with a slight increase in pure benzene production, resulting in a light spot buying atmosphere in the pure benzene market. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.

On the supply side, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to device maintenance. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 64.33%, which is+0.22% higher than last week. The weekly production is 89400 tons,+0800 tons compared to last week.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream caprolactam production, and caprolactam is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market has weakened locally, with recent declines in crude oil and pure benzene prices, weakening cost support, and two downward revisions in the listing price of pure benzene in East China, which has a negative impact on downstream confidence. Although there have been some short-term reductions in the supply of caprolactam, the overall purchasing enthusiasm of downstream polymerization factories is not high, and the prices of some caprolactam enterprises have slightly decreased. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

According to future market forecasts, the raw material pure benzene is expected to weaken due to fluctuations, resulting in a lack of cost support. Expected increase in spot supply and inventory of cyclohexanone, downstream follow-up on demand, and cyclohexanone analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market is weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 1003 yuan/ton on November 3, and 976 yuan/ton on November 9. This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell by 2.66%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price continued to decline this week. At present, the market demand is poor, and downstream and dealer inquiries have decreased. The international market continues to weaken, which has a bearish impact on the domestic market. The bearish sentiment in the industry is obvious, so be cautious when operating. As of November 9th, the mainstream market quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 950 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 940-980 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society’s ammonium sulfate market believe that the recent trend of ammonium sulfate prices has continued to decline, with low downstream demand and relatively few transactions on the market. Currently, there is no positive support. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market trend will continue to be weak and downward in the short term.