On July 7, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 109.26, which was the same as yesterday. It was 22.20% lower than the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and 103.88% higher than the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly on July 8. Up to now, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 12070 yuan/ton. The domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot is tight at present, and the situation of goods on the spot has improved recently. Because of the high raw material fluorite, some hydrofluoric acid factories The market price of hydrofluoric acid has risen with the increase of the ex-factory price. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 11500-12500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is about 12000-12500 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices increased, spot supply decreased slightly, but demand did not change very much, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market rose.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price shocks. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions have improved, R22 refrigerant plant surface started at 60%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price trend of R134a is not good, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price has not changed much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the shortage of supply, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has risen.

Refrigerant market turnover is general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but the hydrofluoric acid spot supply is tight, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may continue to rise slightly.

According to the monitoring of business associations, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to fall sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide was 963 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide was 903 yuan/ton. The price fell by 6.23%.

In July, hydrogen peroxide was in the off-season of consumption, and terminal caprolactam manufacturers and papermaking industry had a flat demand for hydrogen peroxide procurement. Shandong, Hebei, Anhui and other hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have lowered the price of hydrogen peroxide. Shandong Luxi’s quotation fell to 840 yuan/ton, Haineng to 990 yuan/ton, and the price fell by 30-50 yuan/ton. Hebei Zhengyuan’s quotation was lowered to 920 yuan/ton, and the price fell 80 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation in Anhui dropped to 1050 yuan/ton, and the price dropped 50 yuan/ton.

According to Li Bing, a hydrogen peroxide analyst at the business association, the demand for hydrogen peroxide is not good in the off-season, and the rise of hydrogen peroxide in the future is still weak.

Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business associations, the average domestic mainstream market price of 180 CST fuel oil was 4486.00 yuan/ton as of June 30, up or down from 4652.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month by -3.57%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At present, the mainstream price of 180 CST fuel market in China is around 4400 yuan per ton. Fuel oil prices continued to fall this month as a whole.

Industry chain: According to the monitoring of business associations, Brent crude oil at the beginning of the month was $66.87 per barrel and at the end of the month was $66.55 per barrel, with a monthly increase of – 0.48%; WTI crude oil at the beginning of the month was $56.59 per barrel and at the end of the month was $59.43 per barrel, with a monthly increase of 5.02%. In June, U.S. crude oil stocks continued to decline, tensions between the United States and Iraq and optimistic expectations of Sino-US trade negotiations were the main factors leading the oil market in the near future. On Tuesday, June 25 (Tuesday), the weighted average price of Fukushi shale oil rose by 174 yuan/ton, with 12,000 tons of winning bid, 12,200 tons of bidding and 12,000 tons of volume. The tender base increased by 100 yuan/ton with 3356 yuan/ton winning interval of 3486 yuan/ton, and the next tender time was July 2.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, in June 2019, there were four kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector, of which more than 5% of the commodities rose, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were WTI crude oil (5.02%), MTBE (2.46%) and coking coal (0.82%). There are 12 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 31.3% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The products with the first three declines are petroleum coke (-8.44%), liquefied natural gas (-7.64%) and naphtha (-7.09%). This month’s average rise and fall was -3.07%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts of business associations believe that the rise of international crude oil has driven the fuel oil market and increased downstream inquiries, but the shipping price is low, the overall market turnover is weak, the demand for shipping terminals is low, the shipment market is cold, the overall market turnover is weak, and downstream mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude. The fuel oil market is expected to stabilize in July, with some companies fluctuating slightly. The price range in July is expected to be between 4400 and 4700 yuan/ton.

On July 2, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 3rd, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was started one line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were running steadily for the time being due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On July 2, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 9 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 842-844 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 861-863 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On July 2, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell sharply, to $56.25 per barrel, a decline of $2.84. Brent crude oil futures prices fell sharply in August, to $62.40 per barrel, a decline of $2.66. Crude oil prices declined, losing some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price trend of paraxylene market. Temporary stability. Recently, the textile industry has been stabilizing, PTA price has risen on the 3rd day. The average offer price in East China is raised near 7050-7100 yuan/ton. As of the 2nd day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 99%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, the PTA market price is rising, and the PX market price is expected to remain earthquake in the later period. Swing.

On July 1, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 2nd, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was started one line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit was put into operation, and other units were running steadily for the time being due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On July 1, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 15 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 833-835 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 852-854 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On July 1, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to $59.09 per barrel, an increase of $0.62. Brent crude oil futures rose to $65.06 per barrel, an increase of $0.32. The rising trend of crude oil price has a certain cost supporting effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of paraxylene market is temporarily stable. 。 Recently, the textile industry has been stabilizing, PTA price has risen on the 2nd day. The average offer price in East China is raised near 7000-7100 yuan/ton. As of the 1st day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 95%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, the PTA market price has risen, and it is expected that the price of PX market will remain earthquake in the later period. Swing.

Price Trend

In June 2019, the price of ethanol was 5 280 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 5 364 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price of ethanol fell by 1.59% in the month. Prices fell by 0.61% over the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: In June, the ethanol market rose and fell unevenly. In the early period, the enterprises in Northeast China experienced a long-term low price, and their willingness to pull up was obvious. Under the absence of obvious favorable market support, large factories raised their offer sharply. During the period of price increase, large factories executed more contract orders, and the new price was not closed. The contract orders were executed later this month, and the stock of large factories was not high in the short term, but the market was not. There are few enterprises with positive shipment mentality, and prices have declined. At the end of this month, small factories have been driving, and market transaction prices have weakened slightly.

Industry chain: In terms of raw materials, corn: This month, the price of corn rose first and then fell. After six launches, the market supply exceeded the demand. Feed market downstream was weak and prices weakened. According to the profitability of corn alcohol in Heilongjiang, the current purchase price of corn is around 1600-1770 yuan/ton, and the current price of DDGS is between 1950-2050 yuan/ton. Downstream, ethyl acetate: This month, the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose and fell after the shock to restore the position at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, following the delivery of export orders at the end of last month, domestic ethyl acetate stock export supply alleviated the situation of oversupply in the domestic market. At that time, the overall start-up of domestic ethyl acetate plant was low, and the market supply side was well supported.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in June 2019, there were 34 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 11 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were epichlorohydrin (20.33%), hydrochloric acid (20.00%) and calcium carbide (11.04%). There are 43 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 19% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrogen peroxide (-21.81%), silicone DMC (-17.38%) and butanone (-13.71%). This month’s average rise and fall was -0.38%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Later market point of view, July is coming, Northeast big factories will start alternate maintenance. According to the maintenance situation in 2019, large factories will basically be overhauled, which will directly lead to the reduction of market supply, but at the same time, considering that inventory will be made ahead of time before shutdown. Moreover, this year, Northeast small factories will be overhauled ahead of schedule. From the end of January to the beginning of July, three small factories have restart plans, and they themselves will be restarted from July to August. It is the off-season of alcohol demand, so downstream purchasing volume only maintains just demand, so although the supply of large factories will be tightened in turn, it is unlikely to soar on the basis of supply and demand side considerations. In the East China market, due to the high price of cassava dried at the end of this month, factories will shut down to avoid losses, and in the later period, most of them will watch the Northeast side operation; Henan’s current price advantage is still high. However, at present, the price reduction in Northeast China or the pressure on the shipment of Henan market, and the intentions to fall in the later period are relatively strong; the improvement of southern China in the later period is limited, and the recent market orders are lower than the mainstream price, so there will be price reduction adjustment, but considering the profit level, the range is limited. Ethanol analysts at business associations predict that the domestic ethanol market will continue to rise and fall in the short term due to large regional differences.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic zinc price fluctuated and fell in June. As of June 30, the price of zinc was 20233.33 yuan/ton, down 4.78% from 21250.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Zinc prices fell 14.01% over the same period last year.

II. Market Trend Analysis

International Zinc Price:

The volatility of zinc price in LME market in June caused a negative impact on the domestic zinc market, and the domestic zinc price followed the decline. Inventory in zinc market declined, supply in zinc market declined, and zinc market in the future had an upward momentum.

Data statistics:

The report released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) shows that the global zinc supply shortage increased to 84,000 tons in April and 48,700 tons in March.

According to a report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global zinc market was oversupplied by 4,600 tons in January-April 2019, compared with 67,000 tons in the whole year of last year. Global refined zinc production declined by 4% from January to April 2019, and consumption decreased only slightly from the same period last year. Apparent demand in Japan was 177,700 tons, down 2.7% from January to April 2018. Global zinc demand declined by 1,000 tons from January to April 2019. China’s apparent demand is 1969,000 tons, accounting for about 46% of the global total. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. In the first four months of this year, the global supply shortage of zinc increased to 97,000 tons, compared with 53,000 tons in the same period last year.

The data show that the growth of global supply is declining faster than that of demand. Zinc supply shortage is increasing, and the driving force of Zinc market is greater.

Zinc production in 2019

It can be seen from the table that zinc production decreased year on year in 2019, but unlike the continuous decline of zinc production in 18 years, the decline slowed down in 19 years, and zinc production rebounded in May. According to the data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Organization, zinc production in China was expected to be released in the second half of the year. In 2019, zinc production in China increased by 5.3%, and refined zinc production in the world would also increase by 3.6%. It is expected that zinc production capacity will gradually be released and zinc supply will increase in the future.

Policies and regulations:

On June 6, the State Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecological Environment and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Renewal and Upgrading of Key Consumer Goods and Unobstructed Recycling of Resources (2019-2020) (hereinafter referred to as the “Plan”), which takes the structural reform of the supply side as the main line, and focuses on promoting the upgrading of automobile, household appliances and consumer electronics products from four aspects of “consolidation, enhancement, promotion and smoothness”. Promote the recycling of old products. The introduction of the scheme has obvious advantages for automobile and household appliances industries. In the future, the demand for zinc ingots in automotive and household appliances industries will rise sharply, and the demand of zinc market will rise in the future, which will benefit the price of zinc obviously.

Statistics of automobile sales

According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as “China Automobile Association”), in May 2019, domestic automobile sales totaled 1913,000 vehicles, down 16.4% from the same period last year. Passenger car sales were 1.511 million, down 17.4% year-on-year. From January to May, automobile sales totaled 10.266 million vehicles, down 13% year-on-year; from January to May, passenger car sales totaled 8.399 million vehicles, down 15.2% year-on-year, a slight increase over January to April. From January to May 2019, car sales declined by 15.8%, 13.77%, 5.2%, 14.6% and 16.4% respectively. China Automobile Association said that due to the downward pressure of macro-economy and the early implementation of the Sixth Emission Standard in some regions, automobile production and sales are still at a low level. It is expected that in the second half of the year, with the increasing number of car models meeting the Sixth National Standard and the continuing effect of a series of policy measures such as tax reduction and fee reduction, the car market will all improve. Automobile sales fell, demand for zinc fell, domestic zinc price shocks fell, and zinc prices were negative in the future.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Business analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that: in June, the zinc market shocks adjustment, overall small shocks fell. From the international market point of view, the fluctuation of international zinc price has fallen, which has a negative impact on zinc market and a negative impact on zinc ingot inventory in the international market. In the domestic market, the stock of zinc ingot in Shanghai futures market has risen, the supply of domestic zinc market is sufficient, and the price of zinc has a negative impact on zinc. Consumption upgrading policy, stimulating consumption, has a better demand for zinc market in the future, automobile sales continue to decline, zinc demand in the future market has declined. The market is bullish. Generally speaking, zinc market has mixed positive and negative results. In the future, demand of zinc market has warmed up. At the same time, zinc production has increased, supply of zinc has increased. In the second half of the year, the supply and demand of zinc may be booming, and the overall zinc price may increase. However, because the growth of demand in zinc city mainly comes from government policy stimulus, the macroeconomic environment has not changed fundamentally, the demand of zinc city brings more uncertainty, whether the demand of zinc city can meet expectations, whether the supply and demand of zinc city in the future can keep balance, and the uncertainty leads to the fluctuation of zinc city in the future. Overall, however, in July, the zinc market was better than the bad. It is expected that the zinc price will adjust broadly in July.

On June 27, the PX Commodity Index was 58.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.97% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 28.21% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 27th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation, Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily. Due to the normal supply of p-xylene in the domestic market when the new unit was put into operation, p-dimethyl benzene was supplied normally. The price trend of toluene market is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On June 26, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 10 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 823-825 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 842-844 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price of p-xylene in Asia is stable temporarily.

On June 26, the price of WTI crude oil in August rose to $59.38 per barrel, up $1.55. Brent crude oil in August rose to $66.49 per barrel, up $1.44. The rising trend of crude oil price has a cost supporting effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products, while the price trend of paraxylene market is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has been stable for a while, PTA prices have risen on the 26th. The average offer price in East China is raised near 6450-6500 yuan/ton. By the 26th, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 94%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, the PTA market price is rising, and the price of PX market is expected to remain volatile in the later period.

On June 26, the PX Commodity Index was 58.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.97% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 28.21% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 26th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation, Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily. Due to the normal supply of p-xylene in the domestic market when the new unit was put into operation, p-bis The price trend of toluene market is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On June 25, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 3 US dollars/ton. The closing price was 813-815 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 832-834 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of domestic imports are needed. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporarily stable.

On June 25, the futures market of WTI crude oil in July fell to 57.83 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.07 U.S. dollars. The futures price of Brent crude oil rose to 65.05 U.S. dollars per barrel in August, a rise of 0.19 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices declined, which lost some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price of paraxylene market stabilized temporarily. Recently, the textile industry has been stable for a while. PTA prices fluctuated on the 25th day. The average offer price in East China was raised near 6050-6150 yuan/ton. As of the 25th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate was about 93.5%, the polyester industry start-up rate was about 90%, and the downstream production and sales rate maintained a high level. However, the PTA market price fluctuated, and the PX market price is expected to remain volatile in the later period.

On June 24, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 55.47, up 1.46 points from yesterday, down 53.83% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 14.56% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has risen slightly, the market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has rebounded, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions are blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 5600-5800 yuan/ton, the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5300-5400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of phthalic anhydride in North China is 5600-5700 yuan/ton, and the market price is small. The price of phthalic anhydride plant in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride is rising slightly.

In recent years, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 5900 yuan/ton. The import market of o-phthalic anhydride in port area is temporarily stable, and the quotation is stable. In recent years, the market of o-phthalic anhydride in port is general, and the port stock is low. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation is low, import phthalic cost shocks, the actual transaction price is detailed, upstream price trend remains low, phthalic anhydride market price rise is limited. Downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride price rises, isooctanol price rises, DOP cost rises. DOP price shocks are higher, DOP downstream demand is general, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market shocks are stable, DOP market mainstream transaction price is around 7150 yuan/ton, DOP downward pressure is weakened, there is a certain upward momentum, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise slightly later.