In the middle and late May, the domestic liquid ammonia market has been in a downward trend for two consecutive weeks. According to the monitoring of the business agency, since May, for example, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province has dropped by 5%, mainly due to the two-way attack of high inventory and weak demand. Under the pressure of manufacturers, the factory price has been repeatedly lowered, and the market offer has been continuously lower. The range is 200-400 yuan / ton, and the market offer is 2500-2700 yuan / ton near the end of the month.

Shandong and Hebei, the main producing areas, showed a significant decline. On the one hand, since March, affected by the peak season of spring ploughing, the demand for liquid ammonia in China has increased sharply. Compared with other chemical products, liquid ammonia has gone out of the independent upward market. At the same time, the factory’s operating rate also rose to a relatively high level. Until May, the market operating rate was still around 90%. However, with the end of the peak season, the market calms down and the downstream purchase shrinks, leading to the gradual accumulation of liquid ammonia by manufacturers. At present, the amount of ammonia in Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other regions has been high, so it is inevitable for enterprises to reduce price and inventory.

The increase in supply is on the one hand, and more importantly, downstream demand has declined significantly, which is currently in the off-season of fertilizer. In terms of compound fertilizer, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises this week is generally below 50%. Since April, the operating rate has dropped again and again, which is basically the same as last year. At the same time, in order to cope with the increase of ammonia quantity, some enterprises switched to urea production to relieve the pressure of high inventory, which further confirmed the weakness of the downstream and the decrease of the delivery speed of liquid ammonia.

In the future, the business community believes that at present, the supply pressure is still there, the peak season has passed, the demand is low, and the market may enter a relatively empty window period. However, with the limited production of the enterprise, the inventory will continue to be destocked, and the contradiction between supply and demand will gradually ease. It is expected that the price will still be under pressure in the short term. In the medium term, with the alleviation of the contradiction between supply and demand, the liquid ammonia market will return to temperature.

Last week, the acetone market was extremely high and cold, and the terminal did not keep pace with the market. After the middle of the week, the trend fell, and the price in East China fell to 7900 yuan / ton. However, in the opening of this week, the price in East China rose 200 yuan / ton again, and the main offer was 8100-8200 yuan / ton, and the supply in the hands of traders was scarce.

First of all, the manufacturer controls the quantity and the supply is tight. On May 9, Tianjin phenol ketone plant in Zhongsha was shut down for maintenance for 2 months, and then the factory controlled the delivery volume according to the plan. However, at the end of the week, there was a shortage of goods, so that the acetone market in surrounding areas of Yanshan kept a high price of 8500 yuan / ton. This week, Yangzhou Shiyou acetone Co., Ltd. in East China will stop its export. For a while, the supply news will be good. With 16500 tons of port inventory in East China, the traders’ offer has been greatly pushed up. Of course, the push up is also sustained by the surrounding areas, which increases the market demand for East China. Current offers in the mainstream market: 8100-8200 yuan / ton in East China, 8400-8500 yuan / ton in surrounding areas of Yanshan and Shandong. The offer of mainstream factories in East China is 8000 yuan / ton (Shanghai Gaoqiao, Sinopec Mitsui, etc.), 8300 yuan / ton (Yangzhou Shiyou), 8400 yuan / ton (Lihua yiweiyuan), and 8100 yuan / ton.

Second, the terminal demand, without exception, continues to improve. First, the market of bisphenol a rose sharply today. The market offer exceeded 10000 yuan per ton, and the overall market rose by 200-400 yuan per ton, while the factory started steadily. Second, the price of isopropanol continued to be high, with an overall price of 11500-12000 yuan / ton. The factory was fully loaded, and the overseas epidemic situation was still not improved. The demand for disinfectants continued to grow steadily. The production of isopropanol factory was stable, and the demand for raw acetone was large. Third, the downstream MMA remained at a high level, and the overall trading was good. The high price acetone market just needed to be purchased. Fourth, the downstream MIBK was shut down due to the surge in raw materials. However, today’s market also saw a substantial increase in offers. The increase in downstream demand is expected to drive more demand and the factory will resume work.

Third, the raw material market is running at a high level. In terms of pure benzene, this month, the pure benzene market has been showing a unilateral upward trend. The ex factory price of pure benzene in Shandong increased from 2960 yuan / ton to 3460 yuan / ton, with an overall upward trend of 16.89%. Up to now, the offer of pure benzene has been stable but at a high level. As of last Friday, propylene, another raw material, also showed a unilateral upward trend in this month. The ex factory price in Shandong increased from 5995 yuan / ton to 6979 yuan / ton, with an overall upward trend of 16.41%. Although propylene was explored in a narrow range at the beginning of this week, it was generally high.

In addition, phenol and ketone industry chain is the main actor with full market confidence. It can be seen from last week’s chemical industry list that the whole chemical industry is showing a trend of more growth and less decline. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 20th week of 2020 (5.18-5.22), there are 32 kinds of commodities in the chemical sector, including 5 kinds of commodities with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 5.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; there are 24 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month. Among them, the phenol and ketone industry chain in the chemical industry list has 5 rising commodities and 0 falling commodities. The phenol and ketone industry has increased or decreased by 1.62% in a week.

Near the end of the month, the manufacturer controls the shipment, the traders have less goods, the port supplies more isopropanol factories, the current market confidence is good, if the downstream MMA and MIBK can continue to improve, the acetone will maintain high-level operation in the short term, it is expected that the short-term acetone market will offer 8150-8300 yuan / ton, and the acetone market will close at a high level in May.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, cobalt market recovered in May, and the price of cobalt rose in shock. As of May 22, the price of cobalt was 253000 yuan / ton, up 5.20% compared with the average price of 240500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

2、 Market situation

Production of lithium battery rises

Date: monthly output (10000 units) cumulative output (10000 units) year on year growth (%) cumulative growth (%)

April 2020 142462.8 414949.8 16.2 – 5.4

March 2020 133436.5 271730.4 0.7 – 13.4

February 2020 – 142383.1 – 20.2

December 2019 162383.3 1572184.4 9.4 4

November 2019 142782.1 1397666.5 8.1 2.4

October 2019 144519.8 1228146.1 14 1.8

September 2019 147207.1 1082919.2 14.1 7.7

August 2019 134068.6 938469.8 7.8 6.5

July 2019 134881 831966 9.8 10

June 2019 126618.2 635721.4 7.2 6.9

May 2019 112631.1 504128.1 7.2 6.3

April 2019 106382.7 382262.8 8.1 6.1

March 2019 114331.5 276919.2 16.6 8.2

February 2019 – 169511.5 – 6.8

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, it can be seen that in 2020, the production of lithium batteries dropped sharply, and the demand of customers in the downstream industry chain of cobalt fell sharply. However, since March, the production of lithium batteries has risen slowly, which is good for the market of cobalt. In April, the production of lithium battery rose sharply, which was good for cobalt market. It is expected that with the gradual recovery of production, the output of lithium battery will rise steadily in May, which will benefit the future market demand.

3、 Future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business agency, believes that since April, the downstream production of domestic cobalt market has risen slowly, and the demand of cobalt market has recovered, but the stock of cobalt market is sufficient, and the driving force of cobalt price rise in April is insufficient. Since May, the stock consumption of domestic cobalt market has increased. At the same time, affected by the epidemic situation, international cobalt mining and transportation have been restricted, metal cobalt and cobalt import have been blocked, domestic metal cobalt stock has continued to fall, and with the gradual recovery of domestic production and life, the demand of cobalt market has risen slowly, the demand of domestic cobalt market has been limited, and the power of cobalt price rise is sufficient, but the international market cobalt price is slow Decline, the international market demand for cobalt fell sharply, and the decline in demand is far greater than the decline in supply, the overall global cobalt market rise risk is greater. On the whole, domestic cobalt Market in the future has upward momentum, and cobalt price is expected to rise slightly in shock. However, the weak performance of the international market cobalt market affects the domestic market, and there is limited room for the domestic cobalt price to rise.

According to statistics, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is at a low level in the year. As of May 21, the price of hydrofluoric acid is 8780 yuan / ton, which is 14.26% lower than the price trend at the beginning of the year, 21.11% lower than the same period last year. The price of hydrofluoric acid remains at a low level.

Products: in recent years, the price of hydrofluoric acid has declined unilaterally in China. The goods in the hydrofluoric acid yard are generally sold. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient. However, the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry is not good. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is low. In addition, the price of raw material fluorite is falling. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is affected by certain negative effects. The price of hydrofluoric acid in China is slightly lower. As of May 21, the South China hydrofluoric acid market is in a weak position The main stream of acid negotiation is 7500-8000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 7500-8500 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market remains low. The downstream refrigerant industry purchases on demand. The operating rate of the refrigerant industry is low, and the delivery of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is poor. Some manufacturers report that the price is low in the near future, and some manufacturers report that the loss is serious. The market of hydrofluoric acid has many advantages and disadvantages, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has hit a new low in the year.

Industrial chain: it can be seen from the industrial chain diagram that the price of upstream and downstream products of hydrofluoric acid will decline in varying degrees in 2020, and the price of upstream fluorite will drop by 11.79%. As of the 21st day, the factory price of fluorite is 2577.78 yuan / ton. The supply of domestic fluorite is sufficient, and the price of fluorite will remain low. The low price of upstream cost will have a negative impact on the market of hydrofluoric acid Grid is affected by low shock. Recently, the price of refrigerant products has recovered. As of the 21st day, the price of domestic R22 products is 15500 yuan / ton, and the price of R134a is 21333.33 yuan / ton. Recently, the sales of automobile industry is in a downturn, and the market trend of refrigerant downstream of the terminal remains low. The demand for refrigerant is not good, the foreign special events are serious, the export of refrigerant terminals is not smooth, which is mainly supplied to the domestic market. However, the starting price of domestic air conditioning industry is low, The demand for after-sales maintenance is weak. On the whole, the demand at home and abroad is lower than expected. At present, the price of refrigerant R22 manufacturer rebounds from the bottom, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the price rises slightly, while the situation of market price or not appears, and the price mainstream of domestic large enterprises is 15500-17500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price of refrigerant products is still low. The price of hydrofluoric acid market is affected by the negative impact.

In the near future, the operation rate of domestic refrigerant unit remains low, and the market demand for hydrofluoric acid is general, but the downstream R22 price has increased. In addition, some manufacturers report that fluorite price is near the cost line, and there is little room for price decline in the later period. Chen Ling, an hydrofluoric acid analyst of business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid is still stable in the short term, and there may be a rebound opportunity in the later period.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in the domestic market has increased. As of May 20, the price of phthalic anhydride in the phthalic anhydride process was 4937.5 yuan / ton, down 21.42% year on year. Recently, the price of crude oil has been rising, which has driven the domestic petrochemical products higher, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has recovered.

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has gone up, and the market situation of phthalic anhydride is normal. However, the continuous rise of crude oil price has boosted the domestic petrochemical products, and the market situation of phthalic anhydride has recovered. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operation rate of phthalic anhydride on site is more than 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand, the on-site merchants are bullish, and the on-site price slightly rises. By the end of the 20th, the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has gone up, and the high-end transactions in the market are limited. The main flow of the negotiation of neighboring method sources in East China is 4900-5200 yuan / ton, the main flow of the negotiation of naphthalene method sources is 4600-4800 yuan / ton; the main flow of the quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 4800-5100 yuan / ton, and the perspective mentality of phthalic anhydride market still exists, the market is normal, and the price of phthalic anhydride is warmer.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec has been maintained at 4000 yuan / ton. The imported phthalic acid Market in port area has been kept volatile and stable. In the near future, the phthalic acid Market in port area has recovered and the external price of phthalic acid has been higher. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. This week, the price of international crude oil has been rising. The phthalic acid merchants in the site are bullish and the price of phthalic acid has been stable, but There is an upward trend. Influenced by the crude oil price, the market price of phthalic anhydride has recovered.

The price of downstream DOP market is slightly higher, and the price of isooctanol is significantly higher, DOP enterprises operate at low load, DOP market price is slightly higher, PVC enterprise equipment starts normally, and customer procurement enthusiasm is stable. The market of plasticizer industry has recovered, DOP market quotation is 6800-7200 yuan / ton, market plasticizer transaction enthusiasm is increased, high-speed charges are increased, logistics and transportation costs are increased, downstream market is higher, which is good support for domestic phthalic anhydride market and phthalic anhydride market is warmer.

In the near future, the price of raw material phthalic acid is expected to go up. In addition, the downstream market is expected to pick up. In the later stage, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise slightly, but the actual demand has not improved significantly, and this increase will not be very large.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of the mainstream manufacturers on May 19 twenty-one thousand three hundred and thirty-three point three three Yuan / ton, down from the previous day 1.54% 。 On May 18, R134a commodity index was seventy-nine point two seven , flat with yesterday, a new low in the cycle, higher than the highest point on September 2, 2019 one hundred It’s down 20.73% 。 (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: R134a refrigerant market was weak on the 19th. In the near future, the price of raw materials continues to decline, the support of cost end weakens, and the terminal demand is still weak. Refrigerant R134a is mostly used in the field of automobile air conditioning, but at present, the automobile industry has not fully recovered its capacity, and the demand is limited. At the same time, new capacity such as domestic feiyuan chemical industry is released, and there is abundant supply in the field, so there is room for further decline in the future. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of May 19, the market price of refrigerant R134a was concentrated around 18000 yuan / ton to 24000 yuan / ton, and the actual price was relatively low.

Industry chain: in recent years, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has continued to decline due to the fall of downstream market price and the lower price of upstream fluorite. Most manufacturers have reported a serious loss of hydrofluoric acid in recent years. Overall, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has continued to fall due to the negative impact. As of 15 days, the average price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 8830 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market continues to decline. The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian Province is 7500-9000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 8000-9000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangxi Province is 7500-9000 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia is 7500-8500 yuan / ton. The supply of hydrofluoric acid market is sufficient , the market price continued to fall.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 19 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on May 18, 2020, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for the number of commodities monitored in this sector 3.4% ; the top three commodities were ethylene（ 19.61% ）Trichloromethane（ 10.53% ）, octanol（ 6.67% )。 There are 13 commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 commodity falling by more than 5%, accounting for the number of commodities monitored in this sector 1.1% ; the first three products were potassium chloride (- 13.53% ）, hydrochloric acid (- 3.18% ）, butanone (- 2.63% )。 The average rise and fall of this day is 0.32% 。

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business club, at present, the supply of refrigerant R134a is sufficient, but the demand still hasn’t improved, and the market trading is weak. It is expected that the market of refrigerant R134a will continue to decline in the short term.

Commodity index: on May 17, the polyaluminium chloride commodity index was 98.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.38% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.52% from 97.30, the lowest point on April 23, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), the overall quotation range of polyaluminium chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) in China in May 2020 has not changed much, but the quotation of some manufacturers in Henan Province has slightly decreased. The main quotation in the first half of the month: industrial grade, liquid and alumina content, 10%-12%, including 350-400 yuan / ton in tax, 860-880 yuan / ton in solid and content 20-21%, 24% yuan in price, 1100-1200 yuan / ton in content, 26% yuan in price, 26% yuan in price, and 1580-2000 yuan per ton in solid content, 28% yuan or ton in spray content. The grade quotation is about 2800 yuan / ton. Some of the price changes are relatively small, and the reduction range is about 50-100 yuan / ton.

Upstream: according to the data of the business agency, in the first half of May, the main factory price of hydrochloric acid in North China showed a fluctuating upward trend, with 1 daily report of 196.67 yuan / ton, up to 206.67 yuan / ton on the 7th and stable quotation of 210 yuan / ton on the 11th. The actual transaction price of the manufacturer shall be subject to negotiation. The upstream liquid chlorine market is generally weak in support of hydrochloric acid, while the downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane are still mainly purchased according to early demand. Hydrochloric acid market as a whole seems to be declining, and by-product acid is still hitting the market. The pressure of hydrochloric acid delivery is relatively high, and the quality of by-product hydrochloric acid produced by TDI, chloropropene, propylene oxide and methane chloride is relatively good. On the whole, the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem. Downstream: demand is still the biggest determinant of product price, while downstream demand is still relatively low.

Industry: during the Spring Festival holiday in January 2020 to February 20, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stopped production and delayed resumption of work; after February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area resumed production one after another; logistics gradually recovered in March, and transportation costs returned to normal; the overall production in April was normal, because the shipment was relatively difficult, some enterprises’ inventory was still high, and the production was affected; in May, the overall market did not have a big profit in the first half of the month Well, it’s going to be weak.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the price of the upstream raw materials has a small change in the near future, but the demand of the downstream is poor, and the high inventory of the manufacturers determines that the current market is still weak. At present, the market atmosphere is relatively low, and the future market is more likely to stabilize.

1、 Price trend of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of business association, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to run at the bottom this week, and the average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of this week one thousand five hundred and seventy-six point six seven Yuan / ton, weekend average one thousand five hundred and seventy-six point six seven Yuan / ton, up or down 0.

2、 Market analysis

Products: this week, the overall market performance of sodium metabisulfite market is average, the upstream raw material product price continues to fall, the main trading body purchases and sells cautiously, the sodium metabisulfite inventory is overstocked, and many bad news are suppressed, some enterprises reduce the factory price again in May, and the overall low price of domestic sodium metabisulfite market goes down again. The market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 1300-1700 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are 1400-1600 yuan / ton. (the above prices refer to the foreign quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, some of which are temporarily excluded from the scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

Industry: domestic soda price continues to be weak this week, sulfur price keeps moving forward steadily, raw material cost keeps falling, and market price of sodium metabisulfite in the future is under pressure.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that a lot of negative pressure, it is expected that the market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to run at a weak bottom.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of May 14, pet water bottle manufacturers had quoted 5350.00 yuan / ton, and the main negotiation price of the spot was 5350-5450 yuan / ton. The downstream was carefully purchased, and the pet market was shaken.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of products: domestic pet market is in shock consolidation and operation, downstream just need to purchase, watch carefully, the factory is actively shipping and actively making profits, and the price is kept to the lowest according to the order volume. At present, the mainstream price range in East China is 5350-5450 yuan / ton, while in South China, the price range is narrow shock, the mainstream price range is 5400-5500 yuan / ton, and the actual price is discussed.

Industry chain: crude oil price fell, raw material PTA fluctuated in a narrow range, pet cost support is weak, PTA operation rate is high, transaction atmosphere is cold, and the mainstream price in East China is 3240-3300 yuan / ton.

Industry: on May 13, the rubber and plastic index was 566, down 3 points from yesterday, 46.60% from 1060 (2012-03-14), and 7.20% from 528, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

Pet analysts of the business club believe that: the downstream is cautious, just need to purchase, and the pet market is stable in the short term. (the above prices are provided by PET major manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by PET analysts in business, for reference only. For more details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation)

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, affected by the continuous rise in the price of raw materials acetic acid, the domestic price of ethyl acetate has been rising continuously. As of May 13, the average price of ethyl acetate in East China was about 5487 yuan / ton, 3.39% higher than that in early May.

2、 Cause analysis

Product: the price of raw material acetic acid continues to rise. In addition, the recent freight increase is obvious. The two-way benefits drive the price of domestic ethyl acetate to rise. However, due to the low demand in the downstream market, the trade and investment in the industry is light, the enterprise is in cost consideration, more negative operation, and less market transactions. At present, the price in East China is about 5400-5500 yuan / ton, in North China 5250-5550 yuan / ton, and in South China 5600-5700 yuan / ton

Industry chain: upstream, the acetic acid market entered the period of centralized maintenance in May, the supply of acetic acid spot is tight, which is hard to make up effectively in a short period of time. Some enterprises do not offer or ship in limited quantity, and the price continues to rise; the ethanol market is strong, the price of raw material corn is high, the freight is rising, and the inventory is low. At present, the price in East China is about 5750 yuan / ton.

International: affected by the international epidemic, the supply of international ethyl acetate has declined to a certain extent. In addition, the price of raw materials is well supported, and the price of ethyl acetate has increased slightly. Among them, the price of ports in Europe is about 1085 US dollars / ton, and that in North America is about 590 US dollars / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of ethyl acetate in business association, the overall starting and buying performance of ethyl acetate Market is weak at present. The driving force for the price rise of ethyl acetate is due to the strong price of raw materials and insufficient support on the demand side. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will be stable and strong in a short period of time. Pay attention to the price situation of acetic acid and ethyl alcohol.