The domestic butadiene market fluctuated slightly. According to the price monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 4473 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 4451 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a decrease of 0.50% during the week. The price increased by 28.15% month on month compared with the same period last month, and decreased by 54.99% compared with the same period last year.

This week, the domestic butadiene market continued to fluctuate slightly. With the recovery of northeast supply of goods for export, the northern market spot supply slightly increased, dragging the market down slightly. East China is supported by strong external offer, and the offers of middlemen are mainly stable. Although some goods are sold at a slightly lower price, after the delisting of low-priced goods, the offer is firm before the market recovers. During the week, Puyang Bluestar device was restarted, and the upstream device of Liaoning Baolai was started, and the supply side news was relatively empty. However, the transaction of North Huajin at the node of Thursday significantly boosted the mentality of some businesses.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec East China butadiene supply price was stable at 4700 yuan / ton; Dalian Hengli butadiene plant was operating stably with the price of 4410 yuan / ton, which was stable on a month on month basis; a small amount of butadiene from Shenhua Ning coal was exported, and the price was at 3510 yuan / T, down 390 compared with last week The results show that the listed price of butadiene in Zhejiang Petrochemical Company is 4350 yuan / ton, the unit is in normal operation and the supply contract is available; Puyang Bluestar butadiene extraction unit with a capacity of 50000 tons / year was put into operation on August 5, and there is no product output, so please continue to pay attention to the sales situation; Liaoning Baolai cracking unit started operation on August 5, and its 120000 T / a butadiene extraction unit is put into operation, please continue to pay attention to the commissioning situation; North China The 120000 T / a butadiene plant of Jinjin is in normal operation, 520 tons of goods are sold through competitive bidding, and the bottom price is 4110 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: this week, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic emulsion styrene butadiene rubber sales companies rose, with the mainstream increase of 200-400 yuan / ton. The main ex factory price of 1502 styrene butadiene in China is 8000-8100 yuan / ton. This week, the operating rate of styrene butadiene unit was around 64% (of which the operating rate of emulsion polymerized styrene butadiene unit was around 7.1%); the styrene butadiene rubber plants in Qilu, Yangzi, Jihua, Fushun, Lanhua, Weitai, Shenhua, Yibang and Bridgestone were all in normal operation; in addition, the styrene butadiene rubber plants of Tianjin Lugang and Fuxiang Chemical Co., Ltd. continued to shut down.

CIS polybutadiene rubber: this week, the domestic mainstream sales company of high CIS polybutadiene rubber ex factory price rise; domestic high CIS polybutadiene rubber mainstream factory supply price rose to 7950-8100 yuan / ton, the increase in 200-300 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic high CIS polybutadiene rubber operating rate increased to around 68%, 2% higher than that of last week. During the week, the operation load of Yanshan CIS polybutadiene rubber plant increased successively, and the high CIS polybutadiene rubber operating rate of this cycle increased again in a narrow range. It is expected that the overall operating rate will continue to increase after mid to late August with the restart of Huayu CIS polybutadiene rubber plant.

The downstream staged rigid demand has certain support for the spot market, but with the restart of some manufacturers’ devices and continued export sales, the supply side of the market in the later stage is expected to increase. The news of this week’s price increase has boosted the market in recent days. Butadiene analysts from the business club predict that the supply price and market performance may be strong at the beginning of next week. However, in the middle and late part of the week, considering the supply increase expectation and the follow-up of downstream transactions, the market may fall slightly. It is recommended to pay close attention to the market supply information and transaction guidance.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the market of potassium sulfate in Hebei is stable this week, and the potassium sulfate of Mannheim is produced: About 2550% powder with 50% powder; about 2650 with 50% granule and 52% water soluble powder. The report station of potassium sulfate manufacturer of water salt system: Qinghai 50% powder 2300, Xinjiang state investment Luoke 52% powder potassium sulfate quotation is 2550-2600 yuan, 52% granular potassium sulfate quotation is 2700-2750 yuan, because the maintenance work is in progress, the company’s inventory is declining and will not resume production at the end of September. At present, the price of Mannheim potassium sulfate and enterprise operating rate are stable. The domestic potassium sulfate Market maintained a strong trend, and the processing factories started higher, but recently, the transaction of new orders slowed down, the factory was basically in the state of no inventory, and most of the early orders were in shipment.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club potassium sulfate analysts believe: the potassium sulfate Market is in a stable situation, is expected to maintain stable prices in the short term.

Domestic methanol market rose and fell slightly in July. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market price was 1625 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 1640 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 0.92% during the month and a decrease of 16.75% compared with the same period last year.

In July, the methanol market continued to fluctuate. Although the market in the first ten days went up slightly, the market in the last ten days dropped rapidly and the previous low level. In the first ten days, affected by the centralized maintenance of methanol plant and low port inventory, the methanol market rebounded, and Inner Mongolia and other places rebounded to around 1450 yuan / ton. In the late ten days, with the recovery of methanol plants, the postponement of the start-up of olefin units in Luxi, Shandong Province, and the temporary shutdown of srbon, the market mentality turned weak and the price dropped rapidly.

In terms of industrial chain, formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market fluctuated in a narrow range this month. In the month, the raw material methanol surface rose strongly, and the cost of purchasing raw materials by formaldehyde factories increased. Supported by this, the formaldehyde market passively followed the rise. Due to the influence of high temperature and rain, the start-up load continued to be low, so the demand for formaldehyde did not increase significantly. In the middle of the month, the upstream raw materials continued to be strong and upward trend was obvious, but formaldehyde was difficult to follow up. The main reason was that the central environmental protection supervision and control were met in the field and the downstream timber was weak due to the rainy season. The overall demand was weak. The formaldehyde industry thought that the high price offer was not significant, so the market continued smoothly. At the end of the month, with the entry of environmental protection control, environmental protection pressure was serious, some downstream plate factories stopped production for rectification, and formaldehyde enterprises in different regions showed a situation of mutual repulsion.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market rose sharply in July. At the beginning of the month, the acetic acid plants of Jiangsu Sopu and Shanghai Huayi failed unexpectedly. At the beginning of the month, all manufacturers needed to deliver the contracted goods, which led to the shortage of market supply. While the downstream demand was stable, the inventory quantity of each manufacturer was low, which pushed up the price gradually.

Dimethyl ether: the domestic market price of dimethyl ether rose and fell in this month. In the first ten days of the middle of the month, Qinyang Shengxin dimethyl ether plant was in normal operation, while the maintenance of Yima Kaixiang device at the same time had little impact on Henan area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises was not great. Driven by the mentality of buying, the prices began to rise continuously, and the prices in Hebei, Shandong and other regions continued to rise. After entering the middle of the year, due to the lack of support for terminal demand, the market continued to fall into a weak situation. In order to avoid the downward price, BMW and xinlianxin began to implement a minimum guarantee policy, so as to protect the market price laterally and prevent the low price from disturbing the market price.

At present, due to the historical low price of methanol, some methanol plants with backward process and high cost are shut down; most of the international methanol plants are stable, and the import volume is expected to remain high in August; the traditional downstream demand is general, and formaldehyde enters the traditional off-season. Under the premise of no inventory reduction, it is difficult for the methanol market to reach the bottom. At present, the supply of methanol market at home and abroad is increasing, while the demand is weakening, and the fundamentals of methanol supply exceeding demand are highlighted. Methanol analysts of the business agency predict that the domestic methanol market will bottom again in August, and it is not ruled out that there is the possibility of falling below the new low.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 12175 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 13000 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 6.78% during the month and a decrease of 3.07% compared with the same period last year.

Product: at the beginning of the month, affected by the release of special price goods from some manufacturers, the overall negotiated price of Shanghai goods in the market was pulled down as a whole. Downstream demand is weak, and it is difficult for traders to ship goods. Until the middle of the month, the main factories in the North tightened the supply of goods, and Wanhua’s low-cost goods disappeared. Shanghai factory also did not release the special price goods, plus the South Korean factory sales task in July has been completed. Floor traders stop selling goods at low prices and hear less about low prices. The market price has stopped falling, but the incremental support on the demand side is not obvious, and the rising momentum is slightly insufficient. Near the end of the month, many European MDI devices were overhauled, and the market price began to explore, driving the atmosphere of foreign market demand. In addition, Japanese and South Korean manufacturers closed the offer, it is reported that the later supply will be reduced, and the domestic price rising atmosphere appears. Later, Wanhua announced that the listing price in August was significantly increased, and the atmosphere of future price rise was more firm, and other factories followed suit to support the market. The quotation of traders has been raised gradually, and the downstream enterprises have been actively inquiring for goods.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: at the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene in Shandong Province dropped rapidly to 2800-2900 yuan / ton due to the impact of low price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province, and the price of downstream factories was seriously depressed. However, at this time, the downstream and traders’ bottom reading intention increased, and the price of refined low-priced goods was better, and the price began to rebound. However, due to the unprecedented pressure on the port to pick up goods, downstream buyers tend to lower prices, and high prices are generally traded. Therefore, in the first ten days of the month, the trading atmosphere in Shandong market turned to be cautious and wait-and-see, and the rebound was limited. By the middle of June, a new refinery in Dongying purchased pure benzene as starting material, driving up the price of pure benzene in surrounding refineries. However, the downstream follow-up is insufficient, the price is seriously depressed, and the price is weakening. At the end of the month, the price in East China was strengthened due to the delivery near the end of the month. After Sinopec’s listing was increased by 250 yuan / ton, the downstream of Shandong Province and traders made positive inquiries, and the prices of local refineries rose.

Aniline, within the month, aniline market rebounded after falling. At the beginning of the month, the supply of Jinling was increased, but the production and sales were unbalanced and the price fell. Later, driven by the price rise of pure benzene, and the main and standby ships in East China, the export source decreased, and the price rebounded.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in July 2020, there were 32 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose on a month on month basis, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 16.7% of the total number of commodities monitored in the plate. The top three commodities that increased were sulfuric acid (42.50%), butadiene (29.83%) and propane (14.43%). There were 43 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 18.9% of the total number of monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products were acetone (- 38.02%), phenol (- 19.93%) and isopropanol (- 18.75%). This month, the average rise and fall was – 0.47%.

At present, as a whole, the downstream demand at home and abroad is gradually recovering. In addition, it coincides with the maintenance of some devices, which drives up the market price. Japan and South Korea have not made positive offers to China recently. Domestic companies are gradually optimistic about the future market. Analysts of business club aggregate MDI expect that the overall aggregate MDI market will be stronger and will run upward next month, waiting for the boost in demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, the listed price of pure benzene was 2950-3400 yuan / ton on July 1, and 3230-3400 yuan / ton on July 31 (the average price was 3370 yuan / ton), which was 210 yuan / ton higher than that on July 1, with an increase of 6.65% this month. The highest price of this month appeared on July 31, with an average price of 3370 yuan / ton; the lowest price was from July 3 to 4, with a price difference of 250 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

In July, the price of pure benzene fluctuated in the first ten days and the middle ten days, and the price rose sharply in the last ten days. Sinopec lowered the listing price of pure benzene at the beginning of this month, and increased the listing price three times in the last ten days, with a total increase of 50 yuan / ton to 3350 yuan / ton this month. At the beginning of the month, the weak market continued in June, the downstream demand was insufficient to follow up, and the port inventory remained high; coupled with the unknown public health events, the spot transaction in the market was light, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. In the last ten days, the external price rebounded obviously, and the enterprises made up the short at the end of the month, and the pressure of delivery was released rapidly, and the price rose sharply.

The operating rate of petroleum benzene rose in July compared with the beginning of the month. The port inventory of pure benzene rose for 4 consecutive months. This month, the port inventory rose nearly 20000 tons, and the high inventory level dragged down the market of pure benzene.

In July, the international oil price fluctuated upward due to OPEC’s production reduction and demand recovery. However, the aggravation of public health events in the United States has affected the market mentality and greatly restricted the rise of oil prices. In July, WTI oil price basically fluctuated at $40 per barrel, while Brent oil price fluctuated above $40 per barrel. Compared with June 30, Brent oil price increased by 1.055 USD / barrel, or 2.52%; WTI oil price increased by 1.23 USD / barrel, or 3.13%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil price decreased by 35.77%; WTI oil price decreased by 33.24%.

In July, the market of pure benzene rebounded, especially in the late ten days. The reduction of the price difference of pure benzene between Asia and the United States is beneficial to the later domestic arrivals. On July 30, Korea imported 450 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, an increase of 53.33 US dollars / ton, or 13.44% over the previous month; and that of East China was US $445 / T, up 47.5 US dollars / ton, or 11.95% higher than that of the previous month

Downstream, styrene: styrene fluctuated lower this month. On July 1, the price of styrene in Shandong was 5400 yuan / ton, and on July 31, it was 5333.33 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 1.23%. The highest price of this month appeared on July 7 and 8, with the price of 5466.67 yuan / ton.

Aniline: on July 1, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4300-4390 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 4500 yuan / ton; on July 31, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4200-4330 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 4200 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.53% this month. The price of aniline is obviously affected by supply and demand.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, from August 1, OPEC and its allies will reduce production by 7.7 million barrels per day from 9.7 million barrels per day. However, it is difficult for crude oil prices to fall sharply again. It is expected that crude oil will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

The port inventory continues to be at a high level, but at present, the external disk is at a high level, and the subsequent arrival volume is expected to decrease, and the inventory pressure is reduced, which supports the market mentality. In addition, the operating rate of downstream units may increase in the later period and some new capacity will be put into operation. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will continue to rise in August.

Commodity index: on July 31, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride was 84.40, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, which was 22.58% lower than the peak of 109.01 on August 28, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

The data shows that polyaluminum chloride in the second half of July 2020 showed a slight fluctuation and decline trend. In the first half of this month, domestic manufacturers’ quotation price adjustment was relatively frequent compared with that in the first half of this month, but there were still adjustments in the second half of the month, but the number of times was relatively reduced. Individual enterprises’ single fluctuation could reach more than several hundred yuan per ton, but the basic fluctuation was up and down, and the overall market was still light, and the enterprise sales pressure was great. For polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28%, the mainstream quotation was about 1592.86 yuan / ton on the 16th of this month, and 1561.43 yuan / ton on the 31st, with the price falling by 1.97%. At present, the price range of polyaluminium chloride monitored by the trade organization is generally quoted: liquid: industrial grade, content 10%-12%) quoted price is 390-400 yuan / ton; solid: industrial grade, content 20-21% quoted price 770-860 yuan / ton, content 24% quoted price 1200 yuan / ton, content 28% price 1400-1550 yuan / ton, content is more than 30%, price 1500-1600 yuan / ton, plate and frame type: 28% yuan, price 1500-1550 yuan / ton; spray type: content is more than 30. %The price of drinking water grade is 1700 yuan / ton when the content is more than 28%; the price of food grade is about 2800 yuan / ton when the content is 30%. In the first half of July, the price of various specifications of polyaluminum chloride was reduced by about 50 yuan / ton, and the demand and transaction atmosphere did not improve much. The manufacturers lowered the price once about one day, and then generally once again, but each time with a small range. In the second half of July, the reduction range was basically between 20-50 yuan / ton, and the manufacturers were more stable. The overall change range in the second half of July was less than 2%, which was a small reduction.

According to the data of business agency, the mainstream ex factory price of hydrochloric acid in North China increased in July, 312 yuan / ton on July 1, and 357.50 yuan / ton in Shandong on 31 July, with a monthly increase of about 14%. The actual transaction price of manufacturers is subject to negotiation. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the high consolidation of the downstream silica and ammonium chloride market has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid and has a certain support for the price of hydrochloric acid. This week, the hydrochloric acid market as a whole seems to rise slightly, and the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem. Downstream: China’s economic situation improved in the second quarter, and the recovery effect of major industries began to show. At present, the water treatment industry did not improve much. The inventory of polyaluminum chloride manufacturers was high, the sales pressure was large, and the price was slightly reduced to alleviate the inventory through sales promotion.

As far as the whole industry is concerned, the first month of the second half of 2020 has passed, and the situation in the third quarter will continue to improve, but the speed is not too high. During the period from the Spring Festival holiday to February 20, the relevant enterprises in the main production areas stopped production and delayed the resumption of work; after February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas successively resumed their work and production; in March, the logistics gradually recovered, and the transportation costs returned to normal; in April, the overall production was normal, and some enterprises’ inventory was still high due to the difficulty in shipment, and the output was affected; in May, the overall demand for polyaluminum chloride did not recover, and the market situation was relatively high In June, the raw materials did not change much, and the natural gas used for drying rebounded by about 1% from the bottom this month, and then turned downward, with a slight drop of about 0.25% in the whole month, which had little impact on the market. The downstream demand of polyaluminum chloride is still weak, which is the industrial environment of water treatment, and the overall situation in the first half of the year has not changed much. In July, under the influence of the weak environment, the market demand is not good, and the market of polyaluminum will inevitably continue to be weak, and the sales pressure is great. The small price reduction is more obvious in the first half of this month, and the frequency of downward adjustment in the second half of this month is relatively lower and more stable. However, from the perspective of the half month trend, it is not surprising that it shows a downward trend.

In terms of the future market, the business agency analyzed that the water treatment industry had slightly lowered the price since the beginning of the month, but the overall reduction has not been significant, but the frequency is more frequent than that in previous months. Under the premise of no fundamental changes in the industrial environment, the trend of polyaluminum chloride will be mainly stable and small, but the overall decline will not be very large. For raw materials in this month, some manufacturers reported that the price changes of calcium powder and hydrochloric acid were obvious, which had a significant impact on the manufacturers purchased this month, but had little impact on the manufacturers with stock up; the downstream demand was the biggest influencing factor.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6212.50 yuan / ton in July. The current price was flat on a month on month basis, and the current price was down 5.51% year on year.

In July, the domestic potassium carbonate market was stable, the operation of potassium carbonate market was tepid, the trading atmosphere was cold, and the demand side was weak, resulting in the consolidation of potassium carbonate price. The actual trading volume of the market is relatively general. At the same time, the plant operating rate of the manufacturer is low, the overall inventory is low, and the purchasing market momentum is general. The domestic potassium carbonate market is volatile and consolidation. According to the statistics of the business agency, the mainstream factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate in July is about 6000-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

In the near future, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride is temporarily stable: the ex factory offer of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 1820 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Anhui Badou potassium chloride distribution at weekend is 1850 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction of potassium chloride market is not good. Overall, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is mainly required, the overall inventory is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable. Limited support for potassium carbonate.

Potassium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that the domestic potash fertilizer market has been straightened out in the near future, the supply of goods is relatively sufficient, and the actual transactions in most regions are relatively weak. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly fall below in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide products)

2、 Market analysis

On July 29, the market of lithium hydroxide stabilized temporarily. As of July 29, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day, with a three-month cycle falling by 4.09% year-on-year. At present, the orders of battery grade lithium hydroxide manufacturers are stable, and the market demand of industrial grade lithium hydroxide is relatively stable. On July 28, the commodity index of lithium hydroxide was 130.16, unchanged with yesterday, 65.88% lower than the highest point of 381.48 (2016-09-12) and 30.16% higher than the lowest point of 100.00 on September 04, 2014. (Note: period refers to 2014-09-01 to now)

According to customs statistics, in June 2020, China’s import volume of lithium hydroxide was 109.27 tons, the import amount of that month was about 760000 US dollars, and the average import price of that month was 6914.39 US dollars / ton; in June 2020, China’s export volume of lithium hydroxide was 4350.46 tons, the export amount of that month was about 40.98 million dollars, and the average export price of that month was 9420.3 dollars / ton.

In July, the price of lithium carbonate in East China showed an upward trend, and the prices of industrial carbon and electric carbon increased to varying degrees. As of July 29, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 39700 yuan / ton, which was 260 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 39440 yuan / ton on July 1), up 0.66%. On July 29, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44900 yuan / ton, which was 700 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of carbon in East China was 44200 yuan / ton), up 1.58%.

3、 Future forecast

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business club believe that the price of upstream lithium carbonate has slightly increased, but the rising space is narrowed, the cost support is limited, and the market demand for industrial grade lithium hydroxide is relatively stable. It is expected that the market of industrial grade lithium hydroxide will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business associations, after several months of weakness, the price of bromine in Shandong began to callback. As of July 28, the average price in Shandong was about 27111 yuan / ton, which was 3.17% higher than the lowest price in July 17, and 14.9% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Product: at the beginning of this month, the domestic bromine price continued to be weak in the early stage. Affected by the poor demand in the downstream market, the bromine price continued to decline. After the middle of the month, affected by the policy and the coming of the flood season, the spot supply of the market decreased, and the industry’s expectation of the future market supply of bromine decreased. In addition, the enterprise’s inventory pressure was not obvious, the enterprise’s price intention was good, and the market was enthusiastic Market demand is still weak. At present, mainstream bromine enterprises offer about 27000-27500 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the sulfur market is high consolidation, the price is falling and then stable, the overall market trading is still weak, the negative mood in the industry is spreading, at present, about 623 yuan / ton; the price of mainstream manufacturers in sulfuric acid market rises slightly, the inventory of manufacturers is small, the downstream demand is strong, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand, at present, the product trend is about 427 yuan / ton; the domestic liquid alkali price is stable and soft in the month, which coincides with the weak demand for caustic soda In the quarter, the price is mainly stalemate. The weakening of downstream demand leads to price weakening. Shandong has a stable performance. Although the northwest is driven by maintenance, the inventory of caustic soda continues to increase, at present, it is about 497 yuan / ton. The main downstream flame retardant market purchase of bromine is still mainly based on rigid demand, and the market start-up is flat, and the industries such as pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates are generally started, and the demand side does not support the price of bromine.

3、 Future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of the business society, the domestic bromine market is gradually returning to normal, and the spot supply is stable. However, the downstream flame retardant market continues to be weak, and the enterprises’ receiving situation is not good. In the long run, the bromine price is not supported enough, and it is expected to remain stable after rising in a short period of time.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the overall domestic cocoon and silk market showed a downward trend in July, and the price recovered slightly in the late ten days due to the impact of favorable policies. As of July 27, the average market price of raw silk was 270500 yuan / ton, down 7.20% from the beginning of the month. The average price of dried cocoon market was 90000 yuan / ton, down 5.26% from the beginning of the month. At present, the price of dried cocoon is 91000 yuan / ton in Jiaxing of Zhejiang Province, 270000 yuan / ton of raw silk, 89000 yuan / ton of dried cocoon and 271000 yuan / ton of raw silk in Guangxi.

In July, the characteristics of textile off-season showed, and the spot price of cocoon and silk remained weak. On July 17, four departments including the Department of industry and information technology of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region issued a notice on printing and distributing the financial subsidy work plan of Guangxi raw silk pledge guarantee loan. On the afternoon of the 21st, the Forum on promoting the financial subsidy work of Guangxi raw silk pledge guarantee loan was held in Nanning. All parties discussed the important links and implementation means of the financial subsidy scheme jointly issued by the four departments on the 17th. More details will be improved in the supplementary documents. With this boost, the downstream inquiry and transaction have increased, and some manufacturers negotiate more smoothly, and the positive intention to take goods is enhanced. However, the lack of terminal consumption power has become the biggest pressure on the price rise of cocoon silk. In the off-season of domestic sales and export sales, transactions are still weak, and the overall downturn of the industry has not changed, limiting the upward space.

At the end of the month, the purchase of summer cocoons in various silkworm regions in Guangxi has been completed one after another, and most manufacturers have stopped their summer cocoon collection work. There are only a few cocoons in circulation in the market in Yizhou silkworm District, which will gradually enter the stage of summer cutting. The purchase price of a cocoon Station in Liucheng is 29-30 yuan / kg, which is about 55-60 yuan / kg. In Sichuan and Mianyang Youxian District, the purchase of fresh cocoons in summer is almost over. The average purchase price of fresh cocoons is about 33 yuan / kg. According to the quality, the highest price is about 36 yuan / kg, and the lowest price is about 28 yuan / kg. Yunnan Dayao fresh cocoon purchase is still in progress. The purchase price of a cocoon Station in Shiyang town is 36-37 yuan / kg, and the cocoon quality is good.

From the perspective of the textile industry, it is understood that in June, the total retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitwear and textiles reached 105.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats and knitwear were 512 billion yuan, with a decrease of 19.6% over the same period. In terms of export, driven by the significant increase in the export of related anti epidemic materials such as masks and protective clothing, China’s textile and clothing exports achieved the first year-on-year positive growth in this year. According to China’s customs data, from January to June 2020, China’s textile and clothing cumulative export volume is 125.188 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3.16%, of which the cumulative export of textiles is 74.103.3 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 27.81%.

Despite the rapid growth of textile exports driven by the export of masks and other related anti epidemic materials, the overall consumption confidence of the international market has continued to decline, and the consumption capacity has declined significantly. The export situation in the terminal field is still not optimistic, among which the export of China’s clothing products continues to decline. According to the customs data, from January to June 2020, China’s accumulated clothing exports amounted to US $51.084 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.39%, still continuing the downward trend, accounting for 40.8% of the total textile and clothing exports in the same period.

Business agency analysts believe that the current foreign trade is facing a significant increase in uncertainty and instability, the export market recovery is slow, there are variables, and the export side is still under pressure. With the deepening of the off-season atmosphere in China, the power is insufficient and the terminal demand is weak. However, the introduction of Guangxi’s financial subsidy program at the end of the month may effectively solve the financial difficulties of enterprises, bringing favorable support to the market and boosting market confidence. Therefore, it is expected that the price of cocoon and silk will continue to decline in August, but the decline will be narrowed.