According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic palm oil market fluctuated and fell in September, with a decline of over 2%. On September 1st, the average market price of palm oil was 9404 yuan/ton, and on September 26th, the average market price of palm oil was 9208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.08%.
Negative pressure suppresses palm oil market oscillation and decline in September
At the beginning of September, the palm oil market fluctuated, with the overall trend being dominated by the market. Malaysian palm oil is mainly beneficial. Among them, from September 1st to 5th, the yield of palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 5.70% compared to the same period last month. The external palm oil market is supported by bullish sentiment, and the overall market is strong. The domestic palm oil futures market is rising. Due to weak demand for terminal oils, the palm oil spot market oscillates and rises. On September 9th, palm oil closed at 9486 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton. The futures market is boosted, and the spot market is supported, with overall high operation.
Starting from September 11th, the palm oil market experienced an upward trend. Malaysian palm oil is mainly beneficial. Among them, from September 1st to 10th, 2025, the yield of palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 2.70% compared to the same period in the previous month. Malaysia’s palm oil production has declined, while the external palm oil market has strengthened. The domestic palm oil futures market rose, with an average price of 9400 yuan/ton on September 15th, an increase of 50 yuan/ton.
Since September 16th, the palm oil market has fluctuated and fallen. The boosting effect of Malaysian palm oil is limited. Among them, from September 1st to 20th, the yield of palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 6.57% month on month and 7.89% year-on-year. Malaysia’s palm oil production has entered a seasonal reduction cycle, with an overall trend towards excess. The palm oil market in the external market showed mixed ups and downs. The domestic palm oil terminal demand is sluggish, and the palm oil futures market has fallen sharply. On September 23, the main contract for palm oil closed at 9054 yuan/ton, a decrease of 272 yuan/ton. The average spot market price of palm oil has fallen below 9000 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 500 yuan/ton compared to September 16th.
At the end of the month, external bullish sentiment boosted the palm oil market, and prices continued to rise. As of September 26th, the average price of palm oil in the market was 9208 yuan/ton, with a price increase of over 200 yuan/ton.
The palm oil analyst from Shengyi Society believes that after the National Day holiday, the demand for terminal oils and fats will increase, and the bullish trend in the external market is still present. It is expected that the palm oil market will rise in the future.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke in September first fell and then rose, with prices falling overall. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 2385.75 yuan/ton on September 30th, a decrease of 2.22% compared to 2440 yuan/ton on September 1st.
On the cost side, the crude oil market prices fluctuated widely in September, and the crude oil market was affected by both long and short factors. On the one hand, geopolitical factors are still one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. The Russia Ukraine issue has led to a strong operation of the crude oil market, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts benefiting the international oil market, the crude oil market trend has risen. On the other hand, Saudi crude oil may increase production, leading to an increase in US crude oil inventories. In addition, with the end of the peak oil season in the US, the global economic outlook and oil demand are not optimistic, putting pressure on crude oil market prices.
Supply side: In mid to early September, the market for refined petroleum coke fluctuated and declined, with average shipments from refineries. Some refineries’ petroleum coke prices fluctuated significantly with indicators, and petroleum coke prices fluctuated alternately; Downstream enterprises have average enthusiasm for petroleum coke procurement, with a strong wait-and-see attitude and cautious approach to market purchases; In late September, the market for refined petroleum coke stopped falling and rose. Refineries reduced their inventory before the holiday, and downstream procurement was cautious, which limited support for the petroleum coke market. In mid to early September, the port’s petroleum coke production was active, with a decrease in incoming ships and a continuous decrease in port inventory. Downstream flows mainly went to carbon plants, with some going to silicon carbide factories; The price of sponge coke at the port continued to rise in the latter half of the year, leading to an increase in inquiries.
On the demand side, the overall operating capacity of silicon metal in September is expected to increase compared to August, and the overall silicon metal production will continue to increase. Therefore, there is some supply pressure on the supply side. However, Yunnan and Sichuan regions are about to enter a dry season, and electricity prices will rise. In addition, there is also an expectation for silicon coal prices to continue to rise. Supply side shipments are still mainly driven by rising prices, providing impetus for the upward trend of the market. The demand for petroleum coke market in the silicon industry still exists.
The market for sulfur calcined coke rose in September, with downstream purchases being more active and prices for newly signed orders continuing to rise.
In September, the domestic operating capacity exceeded 44 million tons, approaching the policy ceiling of 45 million tons, and there was no significant release of new investment capacity in October. The electricity price for electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan region has been officially raised by 0.12 yuan/kWh. From the supply side, although the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production in Yunnan has been basically completed, with 545000 tons of the planned production capacity of 565000 tons restored, the increase in electricity prices still has a certain impact on enterprise production, which in turn affects the supply of aluminum ingots. Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.
Market forecast: During the National Day holiday, the price of locally refined petroleum coke will continue to rise, and port petroleum coke will mainly execute previous orders, with a slight increase in price; At present, downstream carbon enterprises are actively stocking up, coupled with low inventory of petroleum coke in refineries and improved indicators in some refineries, which is favorable for the petroleum coke market. It is expected that the petroleum coke market will rise in the near future.

The phthalic anhydride market is weak and stabilizing in September
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 6293.33 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.11% from the price of 6300 yuan/ton on September 1st. In September, the price of ortho benzene rose, and the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated and stabilized. The cost support of phthalic anhydride still exists. The equipment load of phthalic anhydride slowly increased in September, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises increased. The supply of phthalic anhydride increased, and the downstream plasticizer market fluctuated and fell. The equipment operating load of plasticizer enterprises slightly increased, and the demand support for phthalic anhydride was limited. Due to limited demand support from rising costs, the price of phthalic anhydride remained weak and stabilized in September.
The cost of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable
On September 30th, Sinopec quoted 6400 yuan/ton for ortho benzene, an increase of 1.59% compared to the price of 6300 yuan/ton on September 1st. The price of industrial naphthalene is fluctuating and stabilizing, the price of ortho benzene is rising, and the cost of phthalic anhydride is increasing. In September, the operating load of phthalic anhydride equipment slightly increased, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises increased, and the supply of phthalic anhydride increased.
Demand side: Downstream production consolidation, DOP price fluctuation and decline
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the DOP price was 7367.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.92% compared to the DOP price of 7589.17 yuan/ton on September 1st. In September, DOP prices fluctuated and fell, leading to a consolidation of operating loads for DOP enterprises and a slight decrease in operating rates. Demand for phthalic anhydride remained weak, and there was insufficient support for the increase in demand for phthalic anhydride.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of demand, plasticizer companies have seen a high-level consolidation of load, a slight increase in operating rates, an increase in plasticizer production, and insufficient support for phthalic anhydride demand. In terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has risen, the price of industrial naphthalene has fluctuated and stabilized, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased. In the future, the cost support of phthalic anhydride still exists, and with the increase in supply and insufficient demand support, it is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will stabilize weakly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market in September first rose and then fell. As of September 30th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 14666 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.95% from 14958 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 4.86% from the high point of 15416 yuan/ton during the cycle. As of September 30th, the mainstream price for 24 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 14550-14850 yuan/ton.
In early September, on the one hand, the downstream tire industry gradually entered the peak season with a slight increase in production, and on the other hand, the domestic and foreign raw material markets remained strong at a high level, providing strong support for natural rubber. In mid to late September, with the weakening of typhoon weather, the supply in foreign markets gradually increased and prices slightly fell. In addition, as the downstream stocking stage came to an end near the end of the month, market transactions were light, and the natural rubber market fell from a high position.
In September, the price of natural rubber raw materials fell slightly from a high level. As of September 30th, the price of Thai glue was 54.80 baht/kg, a decrease of 1.17% compared to 55.45 baht/kg at the beginning of the month. In early September, the main rubber producing areas at home and abroad were affected by rainfall and typhoons, resulting in lower than expected new rubber production and high raw material prices; In mid to late September, with the improvement of weather conditions, the supply of raw materials has been restored, and the high level of natural rubber raw materials has slightly fallen, which has slightly weakened the support for the Tianjin rubber market.
The significant drop in natural rubber inventory in September has provided strong support for the natural rubber market. As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 456500 tons.
The overall stability and slight increase in downstream tire production in September provided strong support for the natural rubber market’s essential needs. As of September 28th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has started at around 7.3%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly increased to around 6.60%.
Market forecast: The current high prices of natural rubber raw materials have fallen, and the downstream pre holiday stocking stage has ended. However, the overall inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to decline, and it is expected that the natural rubber market will fluctuate narrowly in the later period.